期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 偏强震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： 区间【2300，2360】操作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a downward bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined compared to March, and the social financing structure is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy decreasing. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4]. - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. Domestic coking coal mine production has slightly declined but remains at a high level for the year, and mine coking coal inventories are accelerating. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. After the continuous over - expected increase in hot metal production, there was a slight decline this week, and the first round of spot price cuts for coke has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude steel production cuts and fiscal policy efforts, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [5]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply and demand of coal and coke have no obvious changes and remain weak. As the basis and monthly spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Related Information - Spot prices have been lowered, and futures prices have continued to decline. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 842 yuan/ton (+3.5). The basis is 148 yuan/ton (-3.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 14.5 yuan/ton (-16.5) [1]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine production has slightly declined, and coking enterprise production has remained flat. The production rate of 523 mines is reported at 89.26% (-0.66), the production rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.08% (-0.34), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have increased, and downstream inventories have decreased. The coking coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.1045 million tons (+200,200 tons), the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.0326 million tons (+59,800 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9121 million tons (+40,000 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 7.5256 million tons (-226,100 tons), and the port inventory is 3.0609 million tons (+82,800 tons) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Related Information - The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and futures prices have oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 1417.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is 78.37 yuan/ton (-10), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton (+3) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has remained flat, and demand may have reached its peak. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average hot metal output is 2.4477 million tons (-87,000 tons) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have remained flat, and downstream inventories have decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65,460 tons (+370 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663,800 tons (-7,230 tons), and the port inventory is 225,110 tons (-3,970 tons) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - At present, the economic data in April shows that the real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the real economy's financing demand is weak. However, government leverage increase continues, and fiscal policies may bring positive effects. In the case of super - expected positive news from the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector still shows a weak trend. Supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand are what the market is most looking forward to [4]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective [5].

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and weakening dollar credit due to proposed tax reforms [1][2] - Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.83%, closing at 3301.4 points, while the Hong Kong and A-share gold sectors saw increases of nearly 5% and over 2%, respectively [1] - The potential Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has heightened market anxiety, making gold an attractive safe-haven asset [1][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs believes that the impact of tax reform is outweighed by the negative effects of tariffs, which are weakening the U.S. economy [2] - There is a significant amount of capital betting against U.S. Treasury bonds, with expectations that the 10-year yield will rise towards 5%, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5][6] - The current market sentiment is more optimistic than in early April when tariffs were imposed, making it challenging for gold to surpass previous highs in the short term [6] Group 3 - The article discusses advancements in solid-state battery technology, which could enhance safety and performance compared to traditional liquid lithium batteries [7][8] - Researchers have identified the short-circuiting process in solid-state batteries, leading to potential solutions that could accelerate commercialization and impact various sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [9] - A report from Morgan Stanley indicates that the Chinese stock market has outperformed other markets, with significant returns noted for indices like the Hang Seng and MSCI China [10][11] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley has set optimistic targets for major Chinese indices, predicting a 5% increase for the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China by mid-2026 [12] - The report suggests that China will continue to implement accommodative policies, with potential fiscal measures to stimulate the economy in the latter half of the year [12][13] - Observations will be made regarding the expiration of the 90-day tariff pause between China and the U.S., which could influence economic growth assessments and policy adjustments [13]

Revenue Insights - In April 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 20,427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%[3] - Tax revenue for April was 18,106 billion yuan, also up by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a 2.2% decline in March[3] - Non-tax revenue increased by 1.7% year-on-year, totaling 2,321 billion yuan, reflecting a high base effect from the previous year[3] Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure in April was 20,766 billion yuan, growing by 5.8% year-on-year[4] - For the first four months of 2025, total expenditure completed 31.5% of the annual budget, the fastest pace since 2020[4] - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (8.5% growth), education (7.4% growth), and health (3.9% growth), all exceeding the overall expenditure growth rate[4] Fiscal Policy and Market Outlook - The broad fiscal budget revenue completion rate for January-April was 25.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[2] - The government is prepared to issue special bonds to address potential uncertainties, focusing on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs[2] - The bond market is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with a potential 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis points interest rate reduction[2] Government Fund Budget Performance - In April, the government fund budget revenue grew by 8.1%, marking the first positive growth of the year[7] - Land use rights transfer income in April increased by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in the real estate market[7] - For the first four months, government fund budget expenditure totaled 26,136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%[10]

Revenue Insights - General public budget revenue from January to April reached CNY 8.06 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous period[9] - Tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 1.4 percentage points, indicating marginal improvement[11] - Non-tax revenue grew by 7.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous period[11] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period, with a completion rate of 31.5%[2] - Central government expenditure grew by 9%, while local government expenditure increased by 3.9%, indicating a stronger performance from the central government[2] - Social security and employment expenditure rose by 8.5%, making it the largest fiscal expenditure item for the month[50] Fund Revenue and Debt Insights - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -11.4%, reflecting a sluggish real estate market[75] - Government fund revenue fell by -6.7% year-on-year, although the decline narrowed by 4.3 percentage points, indicating marginal improvement[75] - The issuance progress of new special bonds by local governments was slow, with only 27% completed by April[75] Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery[3] - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, are expected to further stabilize economic growth[3]

近期，金融市场的风云变幻吸引着全球目光，而美联储在其中扮演着关键角色。在一系列复杂事件的交织下，美联储的政策走 向愈发引人关注。 关税政策影响难测，经济数据走势不明 美联储官员表示，当前经济数据走势尚未能全面反映关税政策的影响。6 月及 7 月的数据，难以成为评估关税政策对美国经济数 据走势影响的可靠依据。这使得美联储在制定政策时，面临更多不确定性。在这种情况下，市场对美联储 6 月 18 日利率决议产 生诸多猜测。目前，市场预测央行将联邦基金利率范围维持在 4.25 - 4.50% 的概率约为 92.3%，而降息至 4.25 - 4.00% 的可能性 约为 7.7%。 市场走势受多因素牵动，美元指数前景堪忧 周二，美元指数走势回落至 100 关口下方。近期，美元以及美国国债走势均呈回落态势，这主要是受机构下调美国信贷评级的 影响，美元价值受到冲击，美国国债作为避险资产的吸引力也大打折扣。此外，特朗普亲自出席国会减税法案，使得市场高度 聚焦美国财政政策前景。一旦出现不明朗因素，不仅可能影响近期美元指数行情走势，令其维持走弱方向，还可能引发市场投 资者对美国政府治理能力的担忧，进一步加剧市场的不稳定。 评级下调 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 2025 年 4 月财政数据快评 税收收入回正，广义支出提速 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部公布 2025 年 1-4 月财政数据，全国一般公共预算收入 80616 亿，同比下降 0.4%。中央一般公共预 算收入 33928 亿，同比下降 3.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入 46688 亿元，同比增长 2.2%。全国一般公 共预算支出 93581 亿，同比增长 4.6%。中央一般公共预算本级支出 12282 亿，同比增长 9%；地方一般公 共预算支出 81299 亿，同比增长 3.9% 评论： 税收增速由负转正。4 月一般公共预算收入当月同比 1.9%，前值 0.3%。税收收入当月同比 1.9%，前值-2.2%； 非税收入当月同比 1.7%，前值 5.9%，继 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the broad fiscal revenue turned slightly positive, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Looking ahead, both domestic and external demands are under pressure due to the fluctuating tariff policies, so incremental fiscal policies are still worth expecting [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - In April, the year - to - date tax revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time, the non - tax revenue growth rate declined, and the general budget revenue growth rate slightly increased. From January to April, the central general public budget revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the local general public budget revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [1][10]. - In terms of taxes, personal income tax and enterprise income tax had relatively high growth rates. New - quality productivity supported tax growth. The government - funded revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, which may be related to the improvement in land transactions at the beginning of the year and the lag in land transfer revenues, but its sustainability remains to be seen [2][12]. Expenditure Side - In April, the expenditure of the general public budget maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the expenditure growth rate of government - funded funds further increased, indicating that fiscal expenditure was front - loaded. Structurally, the expenditure on social sciences, culture, and education increased significantly [3][16]. - Measured by the broad deficit, fiscal efforts were intensified and were earlier than in previous years. As of April, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 2.65 trillion yuan, and the current cumulative broad deficit rate was 1.9%, higher than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and similar to that in 2020 [4][22].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 80,616 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[9] - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 93,581 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%[9] Fiscal Performance Metrics - In April 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 12.9%, marking improvements of 4.4 and 2.8 percentage points from March respectively[10] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first four months was 33%, above the five-year average of 31.8%[10] - Broad fiscal expenditure completion rate was 28.4%, slightly above the five-year average of 28.2%[10] Debt Financing and Support - The fiscal deficit reached CNY -1.3 trillion in April 2025, higher than the average deficit of CNY -0.6 trillion from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong support from government debt financing[12] - As of May 16, 2025, net financing of government bonds was CNY 2.4 trillion, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than 20.9% in the same period of 2024[12] Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds was 31% as of May 16, 2025, indicating potential for acceleration in the future[15] - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement of 21 percentage points from March[15] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year in April 2025, with a budget completion rate of 5.3%, higher than the previous year's 4.4%[21] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April 2025, reflecting a significant increase of over 16 percentage points from March[35]