1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is weak. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3455 - 3509 [8][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 28.6433%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 764,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. Refineries have reduced production to ease supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.80 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 437.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 701.2414 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.49%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On June 3, the Shandong spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 214 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%; the in - plant inventory was 814,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.76%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different asphalt contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as information on weekly inventory, weekly output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly shipment volume, and downstream demand开工率 [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical average price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70][71]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][90]. - It shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to May 2025, including data on monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar futures, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 2900 this week, and it's recommended to focus on the pressure level at 3000. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7][11]. - For iron ore futures, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways consolidation phase [32][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The expected operating range of the rebar futures main contract this week is 3000 - 2900, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000. Weekly rebar production is 228000 tons, apparent consumption is 245000 tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.83 million tons, and social inventory is 6.38 million tons. The futures price is in a downward channel on the daily level with significant capital outflows. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Steel spot customers were advised to consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [10]. - This week's strategy: Spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy, with a reference operating range of 3000 - 2900 and attention to the 3000 pressure level. Steel production enterprises can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy for 80% of their spot volume [11][12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but does not provide specific data details in the given content. It only indicates data sources such as Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47]. Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The iron ore futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. Last week, global iron ore shipments were 3352000 tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2276000 tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 8.936 million tons, and major domestic port inventory was 13.983 million tons. The daily line of iron ore futures is in a sideways phase, with the main short - selling camp having a slight advantage. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways phase [32]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: The Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model showed that the iron ore futures were in a sideways consolidation phase on the daily line [35]. - This week's strategy: During the sideways consolidation phase, a grid trading strategy can be considered, with a reference antenna of 770, a ground line of 640, 22 grids, and a grid spacing of 6 [36]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Similar to the rebar futures section, the report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but lacks specific data details. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47].

2025.06.03-06.06 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。短期内 M2509预计宽幅震荡整理，运行区间：2850-3000，可考虑区 间操作。 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第21周油厂大豆实际压榨量量220.93万吨，开机率为 62.1%；大豆库存560.63万吨，较上周减少26.20万吨，减幅4.46%；豆粕 库存20.69万吨，较上周增加8.52万吨，增幅70.01%。进口大豆集中到港， 油厂开机率快速攀升，压榨量维持高位，豆粕库存累积速度加快。终端 饲料企业多执行前期基差合同，随用随采的谨慎策略抑制现货成交。巴 西大豆出口销售压力缓解带动贴水企稳，叠加美豆生长季潜在的天气变 化及全球贸易的不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡整理阶段。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 18 元至 1773 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 10 元至 1850 元/吨，多头持仓增加 10651 手至 18.36 万手，空头持仓增加 7278 手至 17.18 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.46 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.02 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | 期增加 3.12 万吨；开工 88.96%，较去年同期 80.07%提升 8.89%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 98.06 万吨，较上周增加 6.32 万吨，环比增 | | | | 加 | 6.89%。尿素港口库存 ...

一个做了十年期货的大客户感慨期货之难：期货博大精深，我押上全部身家，做了十年期货，反复试错，也未能真正窥得期货的本质。一个字：难！ 01 无知妄为 期货投机遭遇悲剧的最大根源在于交易者本身：无知妄为，知行不一，不能与时势俱进退。对市场的运行规律缺乏深刻的认识，就难以有可行的交易方 法。对期货市场所谓风险大的本质缺乏认识，就难以有效地进行风险管理。许多人对杠杆交易原理缺乏认识，保证金交易放大收益的同时也放大了风险， 轻仓则是降低期货投机风险的有效手段。 有些人拿100万元资金来做期货，以为50%仓位不算啥，其实30%的仓位风险就已经不低了。假设股指期货的保证金率为10%，50万的股指期货市值相当于 500万市值的股票。10%的仓位（10万期货保证金）相当于100万的股票持仓。 《菜根谭》说："波浪兼天，舟中人不惧，而舟外者寒心。"看到一些投机者总恨仓位不够大的无知妄为，我时常有如是感觉。 02 悟道难 "悟则满目青山，不悟则愁云蔽日。"想悟得期货投机之道与术并非易事。一个老期货在退出期货市场时跟我感慨："以前做不好交易一直觉得是自己书看 得少，功力不够，但十几年后在你学习研读了大量书籍后，你仍然还是做不好，那你 ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月30日 曹剑兰 Z00J9556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月29日 | 5月28日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 766.0 | 758.0 | 8.0 | 1.06% | | | 原木2509 | 789.0 | 784.0 | 5.0 | 0.64% | | | 原木2511 | 792.5 | 789.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | | | 7-9价差 | -23.0 | -26.0 | 3.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.5 | -31.0 | 4.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -16.0 | -8.0 | -8.0 | | | | 09合约基本 | -39.0 | -34.0 | -5.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -42.5 | -39.0 | -3.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for various commodities shows different trends and characteristics, with each commodity facing unique supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these fundamentals [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The Trump administration's tariff appeal, a weaker dollar, and low risk appetite put pressure on base metals. Social inventory decreased weekly, and downstream stocking was limited. It is expected to continue range - bound in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract price rose 0.52% to 20,185 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with increasing operating capacity, while demand is slowing with a slight decline in the aluminum product start - up rate. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract price fell 0.90% to 2,964 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity release, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also rising. The expected supply surplus suppresses futures prices, but there is uncertainty in Guinea's mining policy [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price rose 1.24% to 22,780 yuan/ton. Social inventory decreased. The supply is relatively loose with high raw material inventory in smelters and the resumption of some smelters. Apparent consumption shows resilience. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose 0.09% to 16,715 yuan/ton. The supply of recycled lead increases with new capacity and production resumption, while demand from lead - acid battery markets is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a small range [1][2]. - **Tin**: The price continued to weaken. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and concerns about increased supply from Myanmar's resumption of production led to a bearish market. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low. Supply did not contract significantly, and there was a high inventory. Demand from the polysilicon industry may decline in May. The price is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 8,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The 2507 contract price fell 2.52%. Supply increased with a weekly output of 16,580 tons (up 3.03% week - on - week). Demand growth was slow, and inventory was high with a slight decrease. It is recommended to hold short positions or short sell far - month contracts [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price showed a differentiated performance. Supply was relatively stable in the short term, and inventory decreased but remained high. Demand in the component segment was weak. After the 06 contract delivery month, consider short - selling the 07 contract on rebounds [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price rose. Steel demand increased marginally, and production decreased. It is recommended to close long positions and consider short - selling for aggressive investors [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price rose. Port inventory decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and the medium - term supply surplus remained. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first - round price cut was implemented, with a second - round cut proposed. Supply was relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term from South America and the sowing of new US soybeans is accelerating. Demand is seasonally weak. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market will follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price rebounded slightly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally this year. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen due to wheat price support [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract price fell 0.21%. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The domestic market is affected by import and inventory conditions. The price trend follows the raw sugar market and is expected to be bearish [5][6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated downward. Yarn prices are weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rebounded. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand for exports has improved. The price is expected to be in a weak but not smooth phase [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract price rebounded after hitting a low. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak due to high temperatures. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy [6]. - **Apples**: The price is at a high - level oscillation. New - season production is affected by extreme weather, and there are concerns about yield. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing with new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and demand is in the off - season for agricultural films. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price fell 0.6%. Supply is expected to increase with new device production and some maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and demand for exports has slowed. It is recommended to close short positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract price fell 1.35%. Raw material prices are falling, and the market is weak. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and consider an arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell 3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new device production, and demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fluctuated. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and Kazakhstan's non - reduction stance increased supply concerns. The price is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and OPEC meeting [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase with inventory accumulation, and demand is affected by downstream profit and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be short - sold in the medium term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell 1.5%. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price rose 1.2%. Some manufacturers' inventory is tight, and the price is rising. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22910，基差+415；偏多。 3、库存：5月29日LME锌库存较上日减少2075吨至141375吨，5月29日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少99吨至1675吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之 ...

智通财经5月29日电，集运欧线期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至8%，报2168点。 集运欧线期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至8% ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for European shipping surged rapidly, increasing by over 5% [1] Group 1 - The significant rise in the futures contract indicates a strong market sentiment towards European shipping [1] - This increase may reflect underlying demand dynamics or potential supply chain improvements in the industry [1]