【导读】基金公司主动权益中长期投资业绩大比拼 中国基金报记者 方丽 孙晓辉 上半年结束，又到了总结基金公司主动权益投资业绩的时刻。 投资是一场持久赛，最近10年市场牛熊交替中，哪些基金公司跑在前列？大中型基金公司中 是谁独占鳌头？最近5年，哪家公司踏对市场节奏？最近3年波动行情之下，哪家公司抗风险 能力更强？在2025年上半年震荡上行的A股市场中，又是哪家公司表现最为亮眼？ | 天弘 | 57.50 | 24/81 | | --- | --- | --- | | 汇丰富信 | 54.25 | 25/81 | | 国投瑞银 | 53.29 | 26/81 | | 受庫 | 52.69 | 27/81 | | 前海开源 | 52.54 | 28/81 | | 长信 | 52.41 | 29/81 | | 国联安 | 51.26 | 30/81 | | 国泰 | 51.00 | 31/81 | | 建信 | 50.29 | 32/81 | | 鵬や | 47.11 | 33/81 | | 宏利 | 47.08 | 34/81 | | 南方 | 47.02 | 35/81 | | 衣银汇理 | 46.31 | 36/ ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the convertible bond market and its performance in the context of the broader equity market, particularly focusing on the Chinese market dynamics and external geopolitical factors [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The convertible bond market is experiencing a structural shift due to favorable external conditions, such as easing geopolitical tensions and supportive domestic policies, which have led to a bullish outlook for July [1][5]. - **Convertible Bonds Performance**: Convertible bonds have shown better resilience and upside potential compared to common stocks, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where funds are increasingly chasing yield [1][4][5]. - **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, and new consumption areas like dairy and beverages, which are expected to have strong earnings visibility [1][6][11]. - **Banking Sector Trends**: There is a notable acceleration in the exit of bank convertible bonds, with significant amounts expected to flow back into the pure bond market or into new bottom-fishing opportunities [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Convertible Bond Ratings**: In the first half of the year, 37 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, but the impact was manageable, with most experiencing limited price declines [7]. - **Solar Industry Outlook**: The solar sector is currently facing increased competition but is expected to stabilize as leading companies reduce production and consolidate, making it a potential bottom-fishing opportunity [8]. - **Investment Strategies**: Strategies such as downshift speculation and YTM replacement are highlighted as viable approaches for investors, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [3][27]. - **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Hua Zheng Co.**: The company has turned profitable with a focus on high-frequency substrates and advanced materials, indicating a positive short-term outlook [12]. - **Guo Li Co.**: Expected revenue growth of 50% to 100% due to strong demand in military and semiconductor sectors [13]. - **Shui Yang Co.**: The company is leveraging both proprietary and agency brands to drive growth in the high-end beauty market [14]. - **Hua You Co.**: Positioned well in the new energy vehicle sector, benefiting from strong demand and integrated supply chain advantages [15][17]. - **Jing Wang Electronics**: The company is gaining traction in the GPU supply chain, indicating a positive performance outlook despite industry pressures [18]. - **Anji Technology**: The company is seeing significant growth in semiconductor materials, bolstered by partnerships with major players like TSMC [19]. - **Hang Yu Co.**: The company is well-positioned in the military sector with a solid order book and improving margins [20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for the convertible bond market and specific sectors remains optimistic, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and sector-specific growth opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on high-growth areas with strong earnings visibility while being mindful of potential risks associated with credit and market volatility [1][5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].

展望下半年，多位专家对第一财经记者表示，考虑到外部环境带来的出口不确定性，以及去年三、四季度的高基数影响，为实现全年经济增长目标，下半年 宏观政策还需要进一步加力，加快财政支出，降准降息仍有空间，并期待在稳定股市、楼市、人民币汇率等方面出台更多增量政策。 随着稳增长政策的密集落地见效，中国经济经历关税风波后迅速回稳，展现出强大韧性。 多家外资机构也从不相信中国经济能实现5%增速，到近期纷纷上调了中国经济增长的预期。第一财经记者发现，外资机构大多都看好中国的科技发展和消 费增长，认为这些领域蕴含巨大增长潜力，将成为推动中国经济持续回升向好的内生动能。 （6月30日，在武汉格蓝若智能技术股份有限公司，华中科技大学硕士研究生林韦弦启动"劳动者"系列人形机器人。图片来源：新华社） 最新发布的制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数、中小企业发展指数、税收数据等也表明，中国经济顶住压力后运行平稳，长期向好的基 本面没有改变。 为了稳投资稳经济，更加积极的财政政策正靠前发力。7月1日，财政部公开了2025年第三季度国债发行有关安排，三季度共计将发行11只超长期特别国债。 其中有4只超长期特别国债发行时间有所提前 ...

南方财经记者 施诗、李依农 天津、上海报道 在全球不确定性上升的背景下，中国经济在2025年上半年保持着稳中向好的发展态势，展现出不错的韧 性与动能。 瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管房东明在接受南方财经记者采访时表示，得益于去年底以来政策的有力转 向与持续发力，中国经济在第一季度延续强劲增长势头，二季度虽有分化迹象，但高频数据依然显示出 消费、投资与出口的稳健表现。 0:00 房东明还指出，中国资产从去年四季度开始已重新受到全球投资者关注，当前A股和港股估值仍处于折 价区间，不管从基本面还是全球配置的角度看，都具备"回到历史平均水平，甚至出现溢价"的可能性。 在他看来，随着政策持续发力和市场信心修复，中国资本市场有望成为国际资金多元配置下的重要增量 市场。 期待更多消费和需求领域政策出台 全球财经连线：我们现在处于年中阶段，是否可以请你回顾一下上半年中国经济的情况？ 房东明：中国经济第一季度数据还是很亮眼的。这也是在去年第四季度，特别是九月份，政策转型和刺 激的大背景下，整个经济的动能还是非常强劲。 到第二季度就有一定的分化，特别是关税带来的一些不确定因素。但我们看到比较高频的数据，五月份 总体仍相对较有韧性。不 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rise of a new wave of entrepreneurs from Henan, particularly focusing on the success of companies like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai, which have reshaped China's consumer landscape through innovative business models and deep understanding of consumer emotions [2][9]. Group 1: Key Companies and Their Strategies - Mixue Ice City, led by founders Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu, has become the richest in Henan with a net worth of 117.94 billion yuan, leveraging a supply chain model that allows for low-cost offerings while maintaining profitability [2][12]. - Pop Mart, known for its LABUBU toys, has successfully tapped into the global middle-class consumer market, with its stock price reaching new highs and creating social currency through its products [5][12]. - Pang Donglai stands out for its exceptional customer service and employee welfare, achieving nearly 17 billion yuan in sales in 2024, and is recognized for its unique shopping experience [8][11]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The emergence of these Henan-based companies signifies a shift in Chinese commerce towards a model that emphasizes supply chain efficiency, emotional connection with consumers, and a departure from traditional business narratives [2][9]. - Mixue Ice City has capitalized on the trend of "affordable luxury," appealing to younger consumers who prioritize value, while Pop Mart has created a sense of identity and belonging through its products [4][6]. - Pang Donglai's approach combines quality products with a focus on customer experience, offering unique services that cater to emotional needs, thus establishing a loyal customer base [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - As of July 2, Mixue Ice City's stock price was 533 HKD per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion HKD, while Pop Mart's stock was at 258.2 HKD, with a market cap nearing 350 billion HKD [12]. - The article notes that while Mixue Ice City and Pang Donglai have established stable reputations, Pop Mart's reliance on trending IPs poses a risk due to the unpredictable nature of consumer interest [13]. - The rise of these companies reflects a broader trend in the Chinese market, where traditional narratives are being replaced by stories of ordinary entrepreneurs achieving success, thus providing new investment opportunities [9][13].

Group 1 - A-shares reached a historic milestone with a total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, reflecting the acceleration of economic transformation, industrial upgrading, and institutional optimization in China [1] - In the first half of 2025, major A-share indices showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76% and the North Star 50 Index leading with a 39.45% increase [3][4] - The market exhibited a structural trend with notable performances in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, enterprise services, household goods, and banking, all exceeding 15% growth [1][3] Group 2 - The market is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation pattern until external uncertainties are resolved, with a potential "steady first, then rise" rhythm anticipated for the second half of the year [1][8] - Analysts suggest focusing on high-quality growth stocks and stable blue-chip companies, particularly in technology and consumer sectors driven by domestic demand [2] - The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in trading activity, with daily average transactions exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan, and a net inflow of 16 billion yuan into stock ETFs [5][7] Group 3 - The market experienced a "N-shaped" trend, with a shift from technology narratives to defensive dividend assets amid rising external uncertainties [4][6] - Key investment themes identified include artificial intelligence (AI), dividends, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [3][4] - Major stocks like BYD and others saw substantial capital inflows, with BYD leading in net financing purchases at 4.934 billion yuan [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The letter emphasizes the importance of identifying and holding onto the best businesses in a city, focusing on certainty and long-term value rather than chasing trends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The first half of 2025 is characterized by significant volatility and structural opportunities, with new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals being highlighted as key investment areas [3]. - The development of AI is recognized as a major technological revolution, showing strong fundamentals and increasing revenue potential [3]. Investment Strategy - The strategy involves concentrating on a few high-quality businesses and undervalued assets, with free cash flow serving as the basis for returns [4]. - Historical data suggests that chasing popular assets often leads to negative returns in subsequent years [4]. Key Investment Directions 1. Social entertainment platforms evolving towards AI agents [5]. 2. Companies with strong pricing power in advanced chip design [6]. 3. Enterprises with scarce metal and copper resources amid a weakening dollar trend [7]. 4. Leading AI models and public cloud services in the AI era [8]. 5. Brands focused on sports and outdoor lifestyles, showing improved supply chain and brand management capabilities [8]. Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong market has become a leading venue for IPO financing, indicating a shift in international capital's perception of Chinese assets [9]. - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world is expected to provide additional rewards for investment portfolios [9].

Group 1: Core Insights - The new generation of consumers, raised in the internet and mobile internet era, emphasizes experiential consumption, authenticity, and personalization, driving changes in travel, retail, beauty, and pet sectors [3][12] - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with domestic travel projected to reach 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, and 56.15 billion domestic trips anticipated, marking a 14.8% growth [18][21] - The retail sector is returning to consumer demand, with traditional retail showing growth in essential goods and cultural consumption, while e-commerce platforms are focusing on optimizing consumer experiences [42][45] Group 2: Tourism Sector - Domestic tourism is recovering, with urban residents expected to make 43.7 billion trips in 2024, a 16.3% increase, and rural residents 12.45 billion trips, a 9.9% increase [18] - International travel is rebounding, with 1.23 billion outbound trips in 2024, a 41% increase, and inbound tourism expected to grow by 60.8% to 1.32 billion visitors [21][26] - OTA platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng are benefiting from the recovery in travel demand and are expanding their inbound tourism services [27] Group 3: Retail Sector - The retail market is experiencing steady growth, with social retail sales expected to rise, and online retail growth slowing down as platforms focus on consumer needs [42][45] - Traditional retailers like Yonghui Supermarket are undergoing significant transformations to meet consumer demands, with a focus on quality and customer experience [57] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is adapting to changing tariff policies, with companies like Yiwu Market playing a crucial role in global supply chains [58][62] Group 4: Beauty and Pet Industries - The beauty and pet sectors are witnessing rapid growth, with domestic brands achieving revenue growth rates of 20-30% in niche markets [68][72] - The pet industry in China has surpassed 300 billion yuan in market size, reflecting the growing trend of pet ownership and related consumption [68] - Companies in the beauty sector, such as Aimeike, are expected to see growth due to lower base effects and strategic acquisitions [75]

Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,072, down 0.87% for the day but up 20% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.96% to 8,678, with a year-to-date increase of 19.05%[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.72% to 5,303, showing an 18.68% rise for the year[3] - In June, the Hang Seng Index, China Enterprises Index, and Tech Index rose by 3.36%, 2.92%, and 2.56% respectively[10] US Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.91% to 44,495, with a year-to-date gain of 4.59%[3] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.11% to 6,198, up 5.38% year-to-date[3] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.82% to 20,203, with a year-to-date increase of 4.62%[3] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia down 2.97% and Apple up 1.29%[10] Sector Trends - In the US, all sectors except Technology, Communications, and Semiconductors saw gains, with Materials up 2.59% and Healthcare up 1.42%[10] - In Hong Kong, new consumption and stablecoin concepts gained traction, while gold and precious metal stocks faced declines[10] Notable Stock Movements - Xiaomi and NetEase rose over 1%, while Meituan and Alibaba fell over 2%[10] - In the US, Tesla dropped 5.34%, while Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway saw slight increases[10] - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers showed varied performance, with Li Auto down 1.03% and XPeng up 2.13%[11]