（原标题：全线大涨！这一金属也火了 后市如何？） 部分上市公司的三季报也体现了行业经营境遇的好转。云铝股份三季报显示，公司前三季度实现营业总 收入为440.72亿元，较去年同报告期营业总收入增加48.86亿元，同比上涨12.47%。归母净利润为43.98 亿元，较去年同报告期归母净利润增加5.78亿元，同比上涨15.14%。经营活动现金净流入为69.77亿 元，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入增加14.04亿元，同比上涨25.19%。 据SMM调研，11月国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率震荡下滑，行业逐渐从旺季转向淡季，但消费表现 仍有韧性。 五矿期货认为，受中美贸易缓和、美联储降息预期等宏观利好推动，有色金属氛围持续偏暖。基本面 看，当前国内铝锭库存震荡去化，美国现货铝溢价维持高位，LME铝锭库存延续减少态势，且库存绝 对水平处于相对低位，叠加供应扰动、下游开工率偏稳，以及铜价上涨，铝价仍有进一步走强的可能。 2025年是有色金属投资大年，作为工业金属大户的电解铝也没有缺席。 12月5日，A股电解铝板块全线大涨。闽发铝业涨停，中孚实业、宏创控股、南山铝业等9只股票涨幅超 过5%。 机构认为，基于国内电解铝已经进 ...

固收观察-上行之后，30 年国债利差如何重定价 20251207 摘要 30 年期和 10 年期国债利差面临重定价，历史数据显示利差受市场交易 力量和机构行为影响，未来可能扩大至 40 个基点以上，需关注市场预 期和交易量变化。 国内外货币政策对超长债与中长期债券利差影响显著，美国经验表明紧 缩政策可能导致利差收窄，量化宽松则可能使其陡峭化，国内需结合农 商行等机构需求进行分析。 央行购买 10 年期国债对 30 年和 10 年利差的影响尚不明确，日本经验 显示未管理 30 年期国债可能导致利差波动，国内货币政策精准投放可 能改变 30 年中枢点位。 低利率环境不必然导致利差中枢下移或波动区间收窄，实际取决于预期、 政策预期和交易力量，未来可能出现窄幅波动或中枢小幅上移。 年底机构行为受 KPI 考核影响，买盘力量或减弱，TL 合约领跌，大型银 行需出超长债，但可通过调整指标解决，明年 1 月需观察市场表现。 万科债务展期事件反映房地产行业周期问题，深铁集团态度审慎，地产 支持政策聚焦保交楼，市场预期与实际存在鸿沟，需关注后续发展。 A 股和可转债市场近期回暖，险资风险因子下调和美联储降息预期是驱 动因素，1 ...

责任编辑：王永生 金价在亚洲早盘上涨。现货黄金上涨0.2%，报每盎司4，204.41美元。澳新银行研究部分析师在一份报 告中称，一项美国通胀指标符合市场预期，为美联储本周晚些时候降息提供了支持。被广泛视为美联储 首选通胀指标的个人消费支出平减指数9月份保持在3%以下，并显示价格环比温和上涨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 金价在亚洲早盘上涨。现货黄金上涨0.2%，报每盎司4，204.41美元。澳新银行研究部分析师在一份报 告中称，一项美国通胀指标符合市场预期，为美联储本周晚些时候降息提供了支持。被广泛视为美联储 首选通胀指标的个人消费支出平减指数9月份保持在3%以下，并显示价格环比温和上涨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% and the highest level since December 2015 [1][2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the combined effects of exchange rate fluctuations and asset price changes, with the dollar index experiencing a slight decline of 0.29% in November [2][3] - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year, driven by the depreciation of the dollar and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2][3] Group 2: Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves increased to 7.412 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases, although the increment has been at a low level for the past nine months [1][4] - The price of gold rose from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to $4,200 per ounce in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5] - The central bank's continued small-scale purchases of gold signal an intention to optimize international reserves, with a recommendation to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The stability of foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue, supported by a solid economic foundation and favorable conditions in China's economy, including a recent reduction in tariffs on exports to the U.S. [3] - The ongoing adjustments in capital market access for foreign investors are anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of China's market [3] - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain unchanged, with expectations of continued upward pressure on gold due to geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the dollar [4][5]

Core Insights - The domestic liquefied gas market has experienced a price increase, with an average price of 4360 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton or 0.44% from the previous working day [1] - The futures market also saw an increase, with the main contract closing at 4317 CNY/ton, up 28 CNY/ton or 0.65% from the previous working day [1] - Supply has slightly increased while demand remains stable, with a decrease in port inventory and a slight rise in the operating rates of downstream chemical enterprises [1] Market Overview - The international market showed a trend of rising then falling prices, but overall price levels have increased [2] - Supply tightness in non-US markets and strong buying interest have been noted, particularly in the Middle East [2] - The LPG prices in the Far East initially rose due to strong buying but later declined as crude oil prices weakened [2] Regional Analysis - In East China, the average price of civil gas rose by 13 CNY/ton to 4360 CNY/ton, with a 0.30% increase [3] - The market in East China is performing well, supported by rising import costs and narrowing refinery supply [3] - In South China, the civil gas market saw a 25 CNY/ton increase to 4360 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.58% rise [4] - The supply tightness and rising costs are the main factors supporting price increases in South China [4] - In Shandong, the civil gas market price rose by 10 CNY/ton to 4460 CNY/ton, marking a 0.22% increase [4][5]

. ∗ 近端交易逻辑 南华期货锌产业周报 ——宏观基本面共振，矿端紧缺现实 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌偏强震荡，当前锌市正处于宏观预期偏暖加上矿端供应收缩与消费淡季现实的博弈中。宏观层 面，美国11月"小非农"ADP数据不及预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注显著提升，美元指数走弱为有色 板块提供了估值修复的窗口；国内方面，12月政治局会议召开在即，市场对于政策端"小作文"的博弈情绪 再度升温，整体氛围偏多。产业基本面最为核心的驱动依然在于供给端的剧烈收缩。11月国内矿端紧张局势 未缓解反而加剧，国产TC均价进一步下探至1850元/金属吨，进口TC跌至57.75美元/干吨，冶炼厂在利润倒 挂与原料短缺的双重挤压下，减产规模超预期，预计12月精炼锌产量将进一步滑落至57万吨左右。需求端虽 步入传统淡季，北方施工受阻，地产相关圆管订单下滑，但在供给端强力减量的对冲下，国内七地社会库存 录得去库，降至14.03万吨。综上，在供应瓶颈难以短期证伪的背景下，锌价下方支撑极强，整体维 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a game stage between warm macro - expectations, regional supply tightening, and concerns about inventory accumulation. In the short term, lead prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - The core trading point in the short - term is the divergence between extremely low social inventory and "accumulating factory inventory". Be vigilant against the risk of a decline after a surge [6]. - In the long run, the seasonal decline in the scrap battery scrap volume and the reluctance of recyclers to sell provide rigid cost support for recycled lead, restricting the release of recycled lead production and limiting the downside space of lead prices [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: As the US December interest rate decision approaches, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is rising. The weak US data has put pressure on the US dollar index, providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - **Supply - side**: In primary lead, smelters in Yunnan, Anhui, and Jiangxi are under centralized maintenance, tightening the regional spot circulation. In recycled lead, due to environmental permit renewal in Anhui and raw material shortages in Inner Mongolia, the operating rate has dropped to 48.4%, and the supply of scattered orders is extremely scarce [2]. - **Demand - side**: In winter, the automotive starting battery is in the traditional peak season. With the year - end sales push, the operating rate of large battery factories has risen to 74.46%, providing rigid demand support for lead prices [2]. - **Inventory - side**: Social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low of 23,600 tons, giving strong motivation for long - position holders to force short - position holders [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures unilateral**: Go long on dips. The lead price has strong support at the 17,000 yuan/ton level. Buy contracts based on the moving - average support level, with a target price of around 17,500 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to the capital flow before the delivery of the 2512 contract [9]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term contracts and sell far - term contracts). The current low inventory situation benefits near - term contracts, and the spot premium is firm. The Back structure is expected to be maintained [9]. - **Option strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the strong cost support and low inventory, the possibility of a sharp decline in lead prices is very small. Sell put options with a strike price below 16,800 yuan/ton to collect premiums [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17,400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw material management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, long 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16,500 yuan/ton [10]. 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, weakening the US dollar index and boosting LME lead above $2,000/ton; the market is bullish on upcoming US and Chinese economic data; the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces has dropped to 65.92% due to smelter maintenance, tightening the market supply [11]. - **Negative drivers**: The operating rate of recycled lead has dropped to 48.4%, and the finished - product inventory has reached a new low since 2021; the SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low; the automotive battery sector is in the peak season, driving up the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid batteries [12]. - **Neutral drivers**: High lead prices have suppressed downstream consumption; the factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands has increased, with a risk of inventory transfer for delivery; the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been repaired, which may stimulate the resumption of idle capacity [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: China's November CPI annual rate on December 9; the approaching delivery date of the SHFE lead 2512 contract on December 12 [14]. - **International**: US October JOLTs job openings on December 10; the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [14]. 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price has been fluctuating strongly this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the SHFE lead monthly spread structure is slightly deviated but generally maintains a C structure [15][17]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was $2,016/ton, and the LME lead maintains a C structure [20][33]. 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between the monthly output of lead concentrates and processing fees [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyze the import profit and loss of lead concentrates and their relationship with import volume, as well as the seasonal import and export volume of refined lead, lead concentrates, and lead - acid batteries [41][42][44]. 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots [48]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyze the monthly output of lead concentrates, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their seasonal patterns and capacity utilization rates [50][51][56][58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyze the seasonal operating rate of lead - acid batteries, including monthly and weekly rates, by type and region. Also, analyze the seasonal export and import volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries and the seasonal inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers [65][66][67][68][69].

Group 1 - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves for the fourth consecutive month is attributed to the combined effects of asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations, with the US dollar index falling by 0.3% to 99 in November [2] - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has risen to over 80%, influenced by weak economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials, leading to mixed performance in global asset prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and the depreciation of the US dollar have prompted central banks and ETF funds to reduce their holdings in US Treasuries while increasing their investments in gold [3] - The People's Bank of China's strategy to increase gold reserves aligns with the goals of optimizing international reserve structures and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

12月7日，国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模连续4个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上。同时，央行已连续13个月增持黄 金。 外储规模继续稳定在3.3万亿美元以上 数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 拉长时间来看，11月，我国外汇储备规模不仅连续四个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上，还创下2015年12月以来新高。同时，较上年末已大幅增加1440亿美 元。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资 产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 数据显示，11月末央行黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司。尽管增量连续第9个月处于低位，但这是央行继去年11月重启增持后，连续第13个月增 持黄金。 | | Official reserve assets | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- ...