Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase, while spot prices are declining due to oversupply and reduced demand from downstream buyers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 23, the main alumina contract (2601) closed at 2520 yuan, up 19 yuan, reflecting a 0.76% increase [1]. - Total trading volume for 11 contracts reached 503,529 lots, an increase of 59,007 lots or 13.27% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Open interest decreased by 9,915 lots, a decline of 1.50%, totaling 650,562 lots [1]. Group 2: Spot Prices - Domestic spot prices for alumina have decreased, with prices in various regions reported as follows: - South China: 2780-2830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - East China: 2690-2730 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Southwest: 2785-2825 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [1]. - Northwest: 2920-2960 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, while northern mines are gradually resuming production, the stability of supply remains inadequate, and domestic ore inventories are low [2]. - Alumina imports have increased by 22.87% year-on-year, which has weakened price support on the cost side [2]. - Demand from downstream aluminum plants is decreasing due to high inventory levels, leading to reduced purchasing interest for spot alumina [2]. - The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply, with social inventories accumulating and cash costs still allowing for profit margins [2].

（央视财经《第一时间》）美国彭博社报道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄 金价格飙升的主要原因。据交易员预计，一系列美国经济数据上周公布后，美联储将在2026年降息两 次。与此同时，美国总统特朗普一直主张采取更为宽松的货币政策。利率下行通常会给不用支付利息的 贵金属提供支撑。 近几周来，地缘政治持续紧张同样增强黄金和白银的避险吸引力。彭博社22日预期，黄金和白银都将迎 来自1979年以来最强劲年度涨幅。受各国央行增持以及资金流入ETF推动，金价今年已飙升约三分之 二。数据显示，黄金支持的ETF已连续5周资金流入增加。世界黄金协会的数据表明，除5月外，今年这 些基金的总持仓量逐月增加。 除央行外，投资者同样在金价上涨中发挥重要作用。受"贬值交易"推动，也就是出于对主权债券及其计 价货币价值的担忧，投资者纷纷撤离这些资产。美国《华尔街日报》10月报道，担忧美元等货币前景的 投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产。美国投行高盛本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将 涨至每盎司4900美元。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：孙艺璇 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver have emerged as the top performers in the global financial markets this year, with gold reaching a historical high of $4442.22 per ounce and silver hitting $69.46 per ounce, marking significant annual gains of 69% and 137% respectively [1] - Other precious metals also saw price increases, with platinum rising to $2087.86 per ounce and palladium reaching $1800.06 per ounce, both marking significant milestones since 2008 and nearing three-year highs [1] Group 2 - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical risks, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman with a dovish stance is expected to influence market expectations, with predictions of two interest rate cuts by 2026 [2] Group 3 - There is ongoing debate regarding the possibility of a bubble in gold and silver prices, as their significant increases deviate from traditional pricing logic for safe-haven assets [3] - Analysts suggest that the new investment dynamics may lead investors to view gold not just as a commodity but also as a currency, with expectations of continued price increases due to central bank demand and potential fiscal spending [3] - Goldman Sachs has set a target price of $4900 for gold by the end of 2026, while UBS anticipates a rise to $4500 by mid-2026, supported by low real yields and a weak dollar [3]

美国劳动力市场走弱、核心通胀超预期放缓，金价延续上涨 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 2024 年 12 月 23 日 美国劳动力市场持续走弱，强化市场降息预期，带动金价延 续上涨。上周五（12 月 19 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五 上涨 0.95%至 979.90 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周 五上涨 0.90%至 4368.70 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现 货价格上涨 1.14%至 975.82 元/克，伦敦金现货价格继续回升 0.97%至 4341.06 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周金价延续上涨， 一方面源于上周公布的美国 11 月非农失业率创四年来新高， 显示美国劳动力市场在持续降温，11 月核心 CPI 数据则超预 期放缓，强化了市场对未来美联储降息的预期，加之美元走弱， 均对金价形成有利支撑；另一方面，日本央行如期加息，但利 空提前消化，加息落地后，资金回归黄金中长期配置。 本周（12 月 22 日当周）金价料将偏强震荡。本周初国际金价 再度突破历史新高，一度突破 4500 美元/盎司，主要源于美国 11 月失业率再度印证劳动力市场走弱事实，令市 ...

黄金疯了！金价再创历史新高，年内飙升68%，接下来是上车还是下车？ 地缘政治风险方面，2026年全球地缘政治周期或仅仅还在上半场，俄乌冲突、贸易纷争、中东局势等不 确定性因素仍可能持续发酵，为黄金提供避险溢价。 2025年12月23日，国际金价再度刷新历史纪录，现货黄金价格一举突破4500美元/盎司整数关口，年内 累计涨幅高达68%，成为全球金融市场最耀眼的"明星"。这一波凌厉的涨势不仅让黄金投资者欢呼雀 跃，也让无数观望者陷入纠结：是继续追高"上车"，还是获利了结"下车"？要回答这个问题，需从黄金 暴涨的底层逻辑、未来走势的支撑因素，以及投资者的风险偏好与资金配置策略三方面综合分析。 一、黄金暴涨的底层逻辑：多重引擎共振 本轮黄金牛市并非单一因素驱动，而是多重引擎共同作用的结果。从宏观经济层面看，美联储货币政策 转向成为关键催化剂。2025年9月，美联储正式开启降息周期，标志着全球流动性环境发生重大转变。 降息降低了黄金的持有成本，同时削弱了美元的吸引力，推动资金流向黄金等避险资产。此外，美国政 府停摆危机、就业市场降温、通胀数据回落等因素，进一步强化了市场对美联储持续宽松的预期，为金 价上涨提供了流动性基 ...

Group 1 - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and spot gold breaking the $4400 per ounce mark, marking an annual increase of over 68% [1] - Domestic gold prices also rose sharply, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang increasing their gold prices to 1403 RMB per gram and 1399 RMB per gram respectively, reflecting daily increases of 36 RMB and 34 RMB [2][3] - Platinum and silver prices also saw remarkable increases, with platinum prices exceeding $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008, and domestic platinum prices reaching 950 RMB per gram [5] Group 2 - The surge in precious metal prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have bolstered demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [8][9] - Analysts predict that the ongoing demand from global central banks will provide a stable foundation for gold prices, with expectations of continued price increases leading up to the holiday season [10] - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to mitigate risks associated with the rapid price increases in precious metals, including adjustments to trading limits and transaction fees for silver futures [12][13]

摘要今日周二(12月23日)亚盘时段，黄金市场短期回调，国内外同步温和调整，但整体强势未改。截至 今早9时10分，伦敦金现报4478.24美元/盎司，涨0.41%；Au(t+d)报972.3元/克，跌0.88%，沪金主连失守 短期支撑。圣诞假期临近交投清淡，获利了结致回调，但降息预期、地缘风险及央行购金等核心支撑仍 在，中长期上行逻辑稳固。 【要闻速递】 最新市场数据显示，黄金呈现"内外分化、实物与期货同步调整"特征。国际方面，伦敦金现小幅收涨但 盘中波动加剧，折射假期前市场谨慎情绪；国内回调更明显，人民币计价黄金品种普跌，各地金店实物 金价同步下行：北京周大福足金999报1360元/克(日跌8元)，上海老凤祥1358元/克(跌0.51%)，广州中国 黄金（600916）1248元/克(议价空间扩大)；银行投资金条跟调，建行928元/克、中行926元/克、工行929 元/克，较前日跌6-7元，回调温和无恐慌抛售，深圳水贝批发价1125元/克显实物需求支撑。 美联储政策仍是核心变量：12月FOMC降息25基点至3.50%-3.75%，但3张反对票(2019年来最多)显内部 分歧，短期1月维持利率概率升至79%抑 ...

值得关注的是，此次领涨的COMEX黄金与现货黄金分属不同交易品种，交易规则存在差异。 作为全球黄金定价基准之一，COMEX黄金是纽约商品交易所（隶属于芝加哥商业交易所集团）推出的 美式黄金期货合约（交易代码GC），每宗交易量100金衡盎司、标的为99.5%成色金，涵盖期货、迷你 期货等多种交易类型，迷你期货每宗交易量50盎司、最小波动0.25美元/盎司，实行保证金制度并支持 实物交割；其市场参与者以大型对冲基金及机构为主、流动性充足，价格受美联储政策和地缘风险等因 素显著影响，交易时段主要分为夏令时（北京时间6:00-次日5:00）和冬令时（7:00-次日5:00）。 （原标题：突破历史极值！黄金期货现货携手飙升 国内金价站上千元大关） 21世纪经济报道记者 张欣 延续本周一的上涨热潮，12月23日11点17分，黄金期货与现货黄金价格双双暴涨并再创历史新高。其 中，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，年内涨幅超71%；现货黄金升破4485美元/盎司，年内涨幅超 70%，两大品种均刷新历史纪录。 此次新高行情并非突然爆发，12月22日国际金价已率先发力，现货黄金盘中首次突破4400美元/盎司整 数关口，为后续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold prices have surged to historic highs, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and spot gold exceeding $4485 per ounce, marking annual increases of over 71% and 70% respectively [1][12]. Price Movements - As of December 23, 2025, COMEX gold reached $4519.2 per ounce, reflecting a 1.11% increase on that day and a 71.23% increase year-to-date [2][13]. - Spot platinum and palladium also saw significant increases, with platinum at $2211.3 per ounce (up 5.83% for the day) and palladium at $1807.00 per ounce (up 1.85% for the day) [2][13]. - Domestic gold prices have crossed the 1000 RMB per gram mark, with prices reported at 1009 RMB per gram, corresponding to an international price of $4479 per ounce [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization [9][20]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net addition of 1045 tons in 2024, which is 21% of the global gold production for that year [10][21]. Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced fee adjustments for trading in 2026, including reduced fees for various contracts, aiming to manage the market's volatility [17]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has also set limits on the maximum number of contracts for silver futures trading, effective December 24, 2025 [19]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize between $4500 and $5000 per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially exceeding $5200 per ounce [11][22]. - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold holdings is expected to remain a significant factor influencing the gold market in 2026 [21].

记者丨 张欣 编辑丨肖嘉 视频丨曾婷芳 见习编辑陈泽锴 延续本周一的上涨热潮，截至12月23日12：43，黄金期货与现货黄金价格双双暴涨并再创历史新高。 其中，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，年内涨幅超71%；现货黄金升破4485美元/盎司，年内涨幅超70%，两大品种均刷新历史纪录。国内金 价站上千元大关。 | | 你需要屋 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | NYMEX铂 | 2211.3d | 121.9 | 5.83% | 142.89% | | NYMEX铝 | 1904.50d | 73.60 | 4.02% | 109.40% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2178.90 | 49.20 | 2.31% | 141.03% | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1807.00 | 32.90 | 1.85% | 98.90% | | COMEX自银 | 69.730d | 1.165 | 1.70% | 138.07% | | COMEX黄金 | 4519.2d | 49.8 | ...