| | | | | 甲醇日评20250515:等待反弹后的沽空机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/13 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2425.00 | 2354.00 | 71.00 | 3.02% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2450.00 | 2380.00 | 70.00 | 2.94% | | | (收盘价) | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2291.00 | 74.00 | 3.23% | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2497.50 | 2432.50 | 65.00 | 2.67% | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2365.00 | 10.00 | 0.42% | | 期现价格 | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2430.00 | 2385.00 | 45.00 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22900，基差+190；偏多。 3、库存：5月14日LME锌库存较上日减少900吨至167050吨，5月14日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1600吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均 ...

黄金失宠铜得宠，沪铜持续上涨临近八万关口！铜铝锌全线上涨背后，资金在"赌"什么？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the operation is recommended to be mainly short - selling the main contract. For glass, it is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price was 1345 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; glass main contract closing price was 1046 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Soda ash and glass price difference was 299 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest was 1,187,203 lots, down 162,059 lots; glass main contract open interest was 1,409,663 lots, down 53,826 lots [2] - Soda ash top 20 net position was - 168,360 lots, up 70,400 lots; glass top 20 net position was - 154,478 lots, up 631 lots [2] - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts were 2,914 tons, down 309 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts were 4,284 tons, up 4,284 tons [2] - Soda ash September - January contract spread was 16 yuan, up 7 yuan; glass September - January contract spread was - 52 yuan, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - East China light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Shahe glass sheets were 1,100 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; Central China glass sheets were 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Soda ash basis was - 20 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; glass basis was 54 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate was 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate was 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points [2] - Glass in - production capacity was 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; glass in - production production lines were 222, down 3 [2] - Soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.7007 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; glass enterprise inventory was 675,600 heavy boxes, up 257,100 heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area was 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area was 13,060.27 million square meters, up 4,296.27 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Central Settlement Company waived account opening fees for overseas central bank - type institutions [2] - On May 13, domestic gold stores lowered the price of pure gold jewelry below 1,000 yuan [2] - MSCI China flagship index adjustment: Enlight Media, Xin Yuan Co., Ltd., and Baili Tianheng were included [2] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff rates on the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14 [2] - Five departments interviewed food delivery platforms such as JD, Meituan, and Ele.me, requiring fair and orderly competition [2] - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil signed a financial strategic cooperation memorandum of understanding and renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement [2] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - For soda ash, the supply decreased slightly due to Tangshan Sanyou's reduced operation. Downstream demand was lukewarm, with more wait - and - see sentiment and mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. High - price resistance led to a slight reduction in inventory [2] - For glass, the overall profit increased slightly due to the decline in raw material costs, and the output remained stable. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and enterprise inventory increased [2]

2025 年 05 月 14 日 短纤：预期好转震荡偏强，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：预期好转震荡偏强，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 短纤：短纤期货维持上涨走势，现货方面，工厂报价普遍上调百元，贸易商也提涨积极。但下游昨日集 中补仓后出现高位观望心态，今日成交量较昨日下滑。截止下午 3:00 附近，直纺涤短平均产销 58%，部分 工厂产销：10%、35%、0%、80%、80%、60%、30%、100%、60%、20%。下游纱厂销售有所好转，部分优 惠缩小，目前纱厂原料多储备至本月底附近。 瓶片：上游聚酯原料期货上涨，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多上调 20-100 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交清淡。 5-7 月订单多成交在 5900-6100 元/吨出厂附近，局部略高或略低，品牌不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：1；瓶片趋 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: Adopt strategies of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on PX and short on EB. Due to the maintenance of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the reduced load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, supply decreases, leading to a significant jump in PXN [7]. - PTA: Implement a positive spread strategy. In terms of supply - demand, PTA's supply decreases while demand increases, continuing the de - stocking pattern [7]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, and exit the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct positive spread operations on basis and calendar spread. Due to the unexpected shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene unit, the maintenance of its 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol unit is advanced, expected to last for one month. Supply is expected to decrease by 150,000 tons per month, and the de - stocking intensity from May to June will increase. On the demand side, after the tariff reduction, the operating rate of MEG's downstream polyester factories will increase again due to the recovery of terminal orders, with the expected high of the operating rate raised to 95% [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Changes**: On May 13, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main contract closing prices were 6708, 4750, 4349, 6496, and 3541 respectively, with daily changes of 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09's values on May 13 were 148, 148, 40, 26, and - 609 respectively, with daily changes of 66, 22, 17, 4, and - 195 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: For PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07's processing margin on the futures market, and PTA09 - LU09, their values on May 13 were 390, 401, - 1664, 840, and 1314 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 7, - 22, 6, and 35 [1]. - **Basis and Other Data**: On May 13, PX, PTA, MEG, and PF's basis were 312, 195, 125, and - 96 respectively; PX - naphtha spread was 271. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC's warehouse receipts were 81164, 11755, 2727, 1810, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 7590, 100, 140, 916, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 13, Asian PX prices soared. Platts evaluated the daily average of Asian PX to increase by 60.67 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton CFR Unv1/China. The market sentiment was boosted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China for 90 days. An East - China 1.6 - million - ton PX unit reduced its load to 60% operation, expected to last 7 - 10 days, and another large PX factory in East China reduced its load due to catalyst replacement in the previous process [3]. - **PTA Market**: On May 13, PTA futures fluctuated upward. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, mainly among traders, with more bids from polyester factories, and the spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers offered June's goods [5]. - **MEG Market**: A 360,000 - ton/year MEG unit restarted. Two MEG units with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons/year temporarily shut down, and a 1.8 - million - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol enterprise's one line started maintenance on May 12 [5]. - **Polyester Market**: The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 58% as of 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament showed high - low differentiation, with an estimated average of over 50% as of 3:30 pm. On May 12, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament had a late - day surge, with an estimated average of over 510% [6].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部报告利多影响释放，美豆期价大涨，内外盘豆类价差持续修复。国内油厂开机 率逐渐恢复，短期现货供应恢复节奏偏慢，对现货行情仍然形成一定支撑，但供应宽松预期不断强化。近 月供应压力不断增加，令基差快速回落，未来几日期现价差仍将快速回归。国内受到供应恢复预期的压制， 短期豆粕期价维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250513: 关税谈判好于预期 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/9 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2334.00 | 2290.00 | (绝对值) 44.00 | (相对值) 1.92% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2412.50 | 2397.50 | 15.00 | 0.63% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2338.00 2270.00 | 2303.00 2227.00 | 35.00 43.00 | 1.52% 1.93% | | | 甲醇现货价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2380.00 | 2365.00 | 15.00 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2350.00 | 10.00 | 0.43% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.63% | | 及基差 | ( ...

Market Dynamics - Downstream markets show increased activity with 20 trucks arriving in Cangzhou and 3 trucks in Guangzhou, indicating a preference for quality goods[2] - Prices for various grades of red dates range from 6.30 to 12.00 CNY/kg, reflecting stable supply and demand dynamics[2] Economic Indicators - The number of warehouse receipts increased to 8,716 (+152), indicating a growing supply[4] - The main contract for red dates (CJ2509) closed at 9,045 CNY/ton, up 45 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 81,071 contracts[4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply is recovering with increased production, leading to a more abundant market[6] - Pre-festival stocking for the Dragon Boat Festival is driving demand, contributing to a positive market outlook[7] Risk Factors - External macroeconomic policies pose potential risks to market stability[7]

2025 年 05 月 13 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4176 | +1 （+0.02%） | 4171 +15（+0.36%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2908 | -5（-0.17%） | 2917 +24（+0.83%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1070 | +17.75（+1.69%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 298.3 | +4.3（+1.46%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 3040～3150， | 较昨-50或-60； 现货基差M2509+200； | 5月21日至6月7日前提货 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | M2 ...