Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of the first "anti-involution" initiative, aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing structural overcapacity issues in the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has issued the first "anti-involution" initiative in the domestic paper industry, emphasizing the need to resist low-price competition and maintain market order [1][6]. - The initiative encourages companies to set prices based on actual costs, reasonable profits, and market demand, aiming to protect the overall value of the industry [1][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite steady growth in consumption for certain paper types like corrugated paper and household paper, overall capacity expansion has outpaced demand growth, leading to low utilization rates, with some types below 55% [4]. - The industry is facing a prolonged supply-demand imbalance, characterized by declining operating rates and slow inventory reduction, indicating a typical cyclical bottom phase [6][9]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - Several paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have announced price increases due to rising costs, marking the fourth round of price hikes in July alone [7]. - The overall paper industry has been under significant pricing pressure, with major paper types experiencing price declines since 2021, reflecting weak market demand and overcapacity [7][9]. Group 4: Institutional Focus - Institutions are focusing on companies like Sun Paper, which has integrated pulp and paper production, and others in the sector that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative and potential market restructuring [10][13]. - Analysts suggest monitoring companies that are diversifying product lines and those with integrated operations, as the industry may see improvements in profitability due to reduced competition and optimized capacity [10][13].

Key Information Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both domestic and international markets are experiencing a risk - on trend. Overseas, the risk sentiment is positive with the extension of tariff exemptions and agreements, while inflation needs to be observed in the next two months. Domestically, although the GDP growth in the first half of the year was strong, the high - frequency PMI data in July showed a decline in production and domestic and foreign demand. The bond market sentiment was suppressed, and the yield curve was bear - steep. [2] - The concept of "anti - involution" has been repeatedly mentioned at the central level and by official media. Currently, the supply - side focuses on directional deployment and industry self - discipline, and the demand - side includes the continuation of previous consumption policies and new measures such as birth subsidies and large - scale project investments. Compared with the supply - side reform in 2015, there are still uncertainties in the current "anti - involution" policy. [3] - Since July, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate has risen by a maximum of 10BP, improving the odds. Considering the current fundamentals and capital situation, the 10Y Treasury bond above 1.70% still has investment value. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the risk - preference improvement in the equity and commodity markets and the implementation of demand - side policies. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART1: Overseas and Domestic Risk - on Trends - **Overseas Market** - The risk sentiment is positive, with the extension of tariff exemptions and agreements with the EU and Japan. The US stock market continued to rise, and the US dollar rebounded from a low level, although affected by the issue of the Fed's independence. [7] - In June, the year - on - year inflation of US core commodities rebounded from 0.3% to 0.7%, and the next two months are the inflation observation window. The labor market remained resilient, with the number of initial jobless claims falling for many consecutive weeks and the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points in June. [13] - **Domestic Market - Fundamental Aspects** - The GDP growth in the first half of the year was strong, and the proportion of domestic demand components increased. However, high - frequency PMI data showed a decline in production, domestic and foreign demand in July. [15] - **Domestic Market - Bond Market and Institutional Behavior** - Since late April, the capital has been running smoothly, but the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of the commodity and equity markets, resulting in a bear - steep yield curve and a decline in the inter - bank leverage ratio. [17] - Different institutions showed different investment behaviors in July. Large banks significantly increased their bond allocation, especially short - term Treasury bonds; rural commercial banks actively bet on duration; funds faced pressure on the short - term liability side, reducing duration and positions; wealth management products continued to have a relatively stable liability side and maintained a high allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit; insurance companies maintained a certain level of bond - buying in July and are expected to increase their net inflow in August. [24][29][32][37][43] PART2: Understanding the Impact of "Anti - Involution" on the Bond Market - **Background and High - level Deployment of "Anti - Involution"** - Since the concept of "involution - type competition" was first proposed in July 2024, it has been repeatedly mentioned at the central level and by official media. As of June 2025, the year - on - year PPI growth has been negative for 33 consecutive months, reflecting the problem of excessive price - cutting competition among enterprises. After the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, more industries have responded. [49] - **Supply - side and Demand - side Measures** - The supply - side focuses on directional deployment and industry self - discipline, with multiple industries such as steel, cement, photovoltaic, and coke issuing self - discipline mechanisms or holding seminars. The demand - side includes the continuation of previous consumption policies and new measures such as birth subsidies and large - scale project investments. [52] - **Comparison with the 2015 Supply - side Reform** - In 2015, after the supply - side reform was proposed, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate bottomed out in January 2016, and there was an adjustment period of about 5 - 6 months, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate rising by a maximum of about 30BP. Compared with the current "anti - involution" policy, there are differences in terms of quantitative targets, demand - side stimulus intensity, and the central bank's attitude towards the capital. [59] PART3: Bond Market Strategy - **Policy Stance in the July Politburo Meeting** - The Politburo meeting in July showed stronger policy determination. It positively evaluated the economic performance in the first half of the year, and the expression of monetary and fiscal policies was mostly about continuation or emphasis on implementation, with a relatively mild tone. [61] - **Investment Value of the 10 - year Treasury Bond** - Since July, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate has risen by a maximum of 10BP, improving the odds. Considering the current fundamentals and capital situation, the 10Y Treasury bond above 1.70% still has investment value. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the risk - preference improvement in the equity and commodity markets and the implementation of demand - side policies. [63]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of financial asset investment companies (AIC) by major state-owned banks in China marks a new phase in the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap business, enhancing the financial support for the transformation and upgrading of the real economy [4][11]. Group 1: Development of AIC Companies - On July 16, 2025, China Postal Savings Bank announced the establishment of a financial asset investment company, completing the layout of AICs under the six major state-owned banks [4][11]. - The approval of AICs has surged this year, with several banks including Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and China Merchants Bank receiving approval, bringing the total number of AICs in China to nine [3][11]. - The establishment of AICs is a response to the need for market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, aimed at alleviating financial system pressure and preventing systemic financial risks [6][7]. Group 2: Historical Context and Policy Framework - The inception of AICs can be traced back to 2016, when the Chinese economy faced issues like overcapacity and rising financial risks, prompting the government to implement supply-side structural reforms [6][7]. - The State Council issued guidelines in 2016 to initiate market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, marking the start of a new round of such initiatives [6][8]. - In 2018, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission established the legal status and operational scope of AICs, providing a regulatory framework for their development [8]. Group 3: AICs vs. AMCs - AICs primarily focus on market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, targeting high-debt but potential growth enterprises, while AMCs (Asset Management Companies) are more oriented towards debt recovery [12][14]. - AICs leverage their connections with state-owned banks to access lower-cost funding and identify potential non-performing assets early, emphasizing long-term value recovery [14][15]. - Both AICs and AMCs aim to mitigate financial risks and support the real economy, but they operate in a complementary manner, providing different pathways for asset management [15]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The recent policy changes have expanded the pilot scope for AICs, allowing them to operate in 18 cities and increasing their investment limits, which is expected to drive a new growth cycle for AICs [9][10]. - The financial regulatory authority has confirmed that more commercial banks will be allowed to establish AICs, indicating a significant opportunity for the banking sector to engage in asset management [10][11]. - The parallel development of AICs and AMCs reflects a multi-layered and differentiated approach to financial risk management in China, enhancing the stability of the financial system [15].

Price Index Insights - In July, the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index were 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The main raw material purchase price index returned above the threshold for the first time in five months, indicating a strong response from enterprises to price expectations under the "anti-involution" policy[8] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry had the highest factory price index at 88.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 80.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 74.5 percentage points[14] PMI Performance by Sector - The comprehensive PMI for "anti-involution" industries recorded 48% in July, up from 47.8% in the previous month, but still below the critical point[21] - Non-"anti-involution" industries maintained a PMI of 50.1%, down from 50.9%, indicating continued expansion[21] - Different enterprise sizes showed varied performance, with large, medium, and small enterprises' PMI at 50.3%, 49.5%, and 46.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline for large and small enterprises while medium enterprises improved[25] Policy and Seasonal Effects - The July Politburo meeting calibrated market expectations for the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain below the threshold in August[26] - Extreme weather conditions, including record rainfall in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, are expected to further impact production in July and August, leading to a weaker PMI outlook[39] - The "anti-involution" policy's first month showed a divergence in PMI across sectors and enterprise types, influenced by both policy and seasonal effects[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[45] - Measurement errors in PMI indicators related to "anti-involution" industries may arise due to incomplete industry self-regulation[45]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Zhonglan Environmental Protection (300854) for the first half of 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the company's operations and cash flow management [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 291 million yuan, a decrease of 3.68% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.628 million yuan, down 55.05% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 24.28%, an increase of 13.33% year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.81%, down 46.84% year-on-year [1] - The company's accounts receivable reached 351 million yuan, representing a 9.10% increase year-on-year, with accounts receivable to net profit ratio at 2678.1% [1] Expense and Cash Flow Analysis - Total sales, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 34.981 million yuan, accounting for 12.02% of revenue, a slight decrease of 3.56% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow per share was -0.01 yuan, showing a significant improvement of 98.49% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a decrease in investment cash flow by 62.02% due to reduced recovery from financial investments [6] Asset and Liability Changes - Accounts receivable decreased by 2.45% due to uncompleted projects and slow collections, leading to increased bad debt provisions [2] - Contract assets decreased by 2.19% due to uncollected project payments and increased impairment provisions [2] - Short-term borrowings increased, indicating a need for liquidity [4] - Contract liabilities increased by 56.03% due to a rise in advance payments for projects [5] Industry Outlook - The environmental protection and governance industry is expected to benefit from government policies promoting investment in pollution control, driven by energy structure adjustments and carbon neutrality strategies [12] - The company aims to focus on ecological restoration and resource recycling, leveraging its core competitive advantages to enhance profitability [12]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 31 日 第一，风险偏好压制逻辑，高风偏资产分流债市资金；第二，通胀/滞涨预期逻辑， 部分债市机构投资者对于价格紧缩的信心出现实质性动摇；第三，情绪及脆弱性 扰动逻辑，当出现反内卷、权益上涨等行情驱动时，止盈或止损诉求均较强，调 整开始的初期担心及抢跑均较为严重。 ❑ 长期层面，债市反而可能演绎反转利多逻辑 第一，市场对于反内卷概念的预期可能自行纠偏；第二，需求政策配套预期可能 弱化，反内卷定价上可能走出"先定价通胀→后定价需求走弱"的利率反转下行 节奏；第三，中美谈判持续进行中，内需政策层面或还需走一步看一步。 ❑ 资产荒驱动配置盘买债的底层逻辑没有明显变化 在基于中期利率下行的判断下，波动依然对应做多机会，负债端较稳定的机构或 许合理把握本轮调整给予的空间。在本轮市场调整中，除了基金恐慌性抛售外， 其他配置型机构均明显增加了净买入力度，农商行承接利率债的意愿在市场调整 初期已有较为充分展现，普信债和二级债配置盘需求较弱但也有所展现，资产荒 驱动配置盘买债的底层逻辑没有明显变化。 ❑ 风险提示 如何看待债市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traditional industries play an irreplaceable role in stabilizing Guangdong's economy, particularly in growth, employment, and foreign trade, but face challenges in transformation and upgrading [1] Group 1: Current Challenges - Some enterprises in Guangdong exhibit "three no's" (unwilling, afraid, unable) towards transformation, lacking technical foundation, talent, experience, and investment capacity for trial and error [1] - There is an overcapacity in low-end production and insufficient high-end supply in certain traditional industries, indicating an unbalanced industrial structure [1] - The precision of transformation policies is inadequate, with a gap between universal policies and the specific needs of enterprises [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Transformation - Optimize the development environment for traditional industries by enhancing policies that support high-quality manufacturing, aligning with trends in AI and green energy [2] - Promote innovation-driven development by improving intellectual property protection and supporting the conversion of research achievements [2] - Strengthen the steel industry through consolidation, mergers, and upgrades to increase high-end product supply [2] - Provide customized transformation solutions for different industries to facilitate a shift from passive to proactive upgrades [2] - Leverage artificial intelligence to empower various sectors, addressing challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises in R&D [2] Group 3: Collaborative and Legislative Support - Create a conducive environment for enterprise development by introducing models that connect leading enterprises with smaller ones, enhancing application support mechanisms [3] - Strengthen legal support for traditional industries, optimize the policy framework for industrial development, and encourage more enterprises to transition from observation to active transformation [3]

7月30日，"2025私募高质量发展聚力计划暨中泰证券尚元杯第四届私募优选启动仪式"在北京举行。中 泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷在主题演讲中表示，2025年上半年我国经济总体向好，为实现全年目标奠定 了基础。短期政策将保持定力，以精准施策和灵活应对为主线，未来仍有降准降息空间。同时，"畅通 循环""因业施策"及全球供应链重构等趋势下，科技、消费、创新药等领域蕴含结构性投资机会。 下半年关注两条政策主线 "2025年上半年我国经济总体向好，为全年目标奠定了基础。"李迅雷表示，上半年消费领域"以旧换 新"带动社零较快增长，拉动耐用消费品增长，对社零增长贡献显著。 "考虑到今年上半年经济增长已为实现全年目标奠定良好基础，既定各项政策部署正在有序推进，目前 出台大规模刺激性政策的必要性不大。"李迅雷表示，相比去年上半年，今年上半年GDP增速更高，消 费增速也显著回升，出口也彰显韧性，今年中期追加财政预算赤字或增发超长期特别国债的可能性较 小。 "短期来看，政策仍将保持定力，下半年或有两条主线。"李迅雷认为，一是精准施策。在不增列赤字、 不增发国债的前提下，发力空间在于调整年初预算安排的结构、优化额度在各省区市之间的分配、 ...

工信部近日再次召开重磅座谈会，提出巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合治理成效，加强光伏等重 点行业治理，以标准提升倒逼落后产能退出。和过往不同的是，这次不只是企业约谈、提出要求，而是 开始制定比较有力的实际措施来解决问题。 最突出的是强化标准引领，尤其是联合多部门加快多项强制性安全标准的制定和落地执行。工信部此前 表示，今年将制定行业标准1800项以上，其中强制性标准100项以上。强制性标准尤其涉及新能源智能 汽车领域，比如辅助驾驶、电池、电耗方面的技术与安全标准形成闭环，形成重塑产业竞争规则局面。 在已经发布的强制性标准当中，《电动汽车能量消耗量限值》，乘用车新增车型自2026年1月1日起执 行；《电动自行车安全技术规范》今年9月1日起正式实施。2026年将陆续实施三项智能网联汽车强制性 国家标准、《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》等，后者被称为史上最严电池安全令，对电池的安全与 回收利用等做出了明确规范。《汽车车门把手安全技术要求》等也正在意见征集。光伏行业的标准升级 同样采取"标准+监测+退出"的组合拳，《光伏制造行业规范条件》、产能动态监测系统、对未达标企 业实施"等量置换"等，精准施策初见成效。一系 ...

Group 1: Coal Chemical Industry - The operational level of China's coal chemical industry continues to improve, with steady increases in capacity utilization rates across major sub-industries [3] - The coal-to-synthetic ammonia and coal-to-methanol sectors have undergone supply-side structural reforms during the 13th Five-Year Plan, leading to the elimination of outdated capacity and a positive development trend [3] - The coal-to-ethylene and coal-to-oil gas projects are maturing, benefiting from high oil prices and favorable national pipeline reforms, resulting in continuous improvement in capacity utilization [3] Group 2: Chemical Fiber Industry - The chemical industry is experiencing an optimization of supply clearing patterns, with the exit of outdated facilities expected to enhance the polyester filament industry landscape [3] - Polyester filament, as the largest chemical fiber by output, has reached a relatively concentrated industry structure in China, benefiting leading companies [3] Group 3: AI Industry - The demand for AI computing power in the US stock market is expanding into lower-tier and emerging markets, driven by reduced costs of large models [3] - Short-term beneficiaries of the growing AI computing demand include IT operations, network security, and database sectors, which have shorter value chains and stronger certainty compared to downstream AI application companies [3] - A favorable financing environment is expected to encourage companies to increase AI investments and IT budgets, with potential regulatory relaxations under the Trump administration further supporting AI demand [3] Group 4: Company Performance - Baowu Magnesium Industry is facing performance pressure due to declining magnesium prices, while the magnesium-aluminum price ratio has remained below 1 for the past 11 months, indicating growing opportunities in automotive lightweight applications [4] - Sujiao Technology reported a decline in traditional business, with H1 2025 revenue of 1.78 billion and a net profit of 100 million, down 39.5% year-on-year, while new businesses are growing but still need nurturing [4] - WuXi AppTec achieved significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with total revenue of 20.799 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.64%, and a net profit of 8.561 billion, up 101.92% [5] - Aidi Biological reported a revenue of 579 million in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, with net profit growing by 31.41% [6]