Core Viewpoint - Swiss businesses are actively engaging with the U.S. to negotiate a reduction in tariffs, moving closer to a potential agreement that could lower tariffs to 15%, aligning with the EU's tariff rates on U.S. exports [4][6]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Swiss enterprises have shifted from behind-the-scenes lobbying to direct engagement with the Trump administration, reflecting the urgency created by the recent imposition of a 39% tariff on Swiss goods [6][7]. - The Swiss delegation, led by President Keller-Sutter, initially aimed for a tariff agreement around 10%, but the unexpected increase to 39% shocked both political and business leaders in Switzerland [6][8]. - The private sector has emerged as a key player in breaking the negotiation deadlock, with prominent Swiss business leaders meeting with President Trump to discuss trade issues [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. is Switzerland's largest export market, with significant exports including watches, chocolate, and machinery, and the trade deficit has been cited as a reason for the high tariffs [6][12]. - In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland reached $38.3 billion, a 56.1% increase from the previous year, while the U.S. maintained a $29.7 billion surplus in service trade with Switzerland [12][13]. - The gold refining industry in Switzerland, although a small part of the economy, has contributed significantly to the trade deficit, prompting discussions about Swiss investments in U.S. gold refining as a potential bargaining chip [12][14]. Group 3: Future Prospects - There is optimism that an agreement could be reached by January 2026 during the World Economic Forum in Davos, where President Trump is expected to attend [14][15]. - The involvement of the new U.S. ambassador to Switzerland may also provide additional momentum to the negotiations, although the situation remains uncertain [9][10].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a one-year suspension of the export control penetration rules, which will not impose additional export control sanctions on companies with over 50% ownership by entities listed on the U.S. export control "entity list" during this period [2] - This suspension is seen as an important measure to implement the consensus reached during the China-U.S. Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [2] - Both sides are committed to enhancing dialogue and cooperation to manage differences and promote mutual benefits in business collaboration [2] Group 2 - The outcomes of the China-U.S. Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations include the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and the continuation of a one-year suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese products [3] - The U.S. will also suspend the implementation of its 50% export control penetration rules for one year, while China will pause its related export control measures for the same duration [3] - Both parties agreed to extend certain tariff exclusion measures and confirmed cooperation on issues such as fentanyl control, agricultural trade expansion, and specific enterprise case handling [3]

Core Viewpoint - Swiss businesses are actively engaging in negotiations with the U.S. to reach a tariff agreement, potentially lowering tariffs to 15%, aligning with the EU's tariff rates [1][2][4] Group 1: Swiss Business Engagement - Swiss business leaders have shifted from behind-the-scenes lobbying to direct engagement with the Trump administration, aiming to break months of negotiation deadlock [2][3] - The Swiss delegation, led by Federal President Keller-Sutter, was initially shocked by the U.S. imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, which is the highest among developed economies [2][4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Trade Relations - The U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland is approximately $39 billion, with the U.S. imposing high tariffs as a response to this imbalance [2][6] - Swiss exports account for over 70% of its GDP, with key products including watches, chocolate, and machinery, making the U.S. a crucial market [4][6] Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - High-profile Swiss executives, including those from Partners Group and Rolex, have met with Trump to emphasize the strong economic ties between the two nations [3][4] - The Swiss strategy in negotiations has leveraged its traditional strengths, with business leaders seen as more effective than political figures in addressing trade issues [4][5] Group 4: Future Prospects - There is speculation that a trade agreement could be announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2026, with Trump likely to attend [7] - The potential for Swiss companies to invest in the U.S. gold refining industry is being considered as a strategy to persuade the U.S. to lower tariffs [6][7]

Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (bean No. 1): ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soybean oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soybean meal: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as policies, trade negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors. Investors should pay attention to relevant information and changes in the market to find potential investment opportunities and avoid risks [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean (bean No. 1) - The price of soybean No. 1 shows high - level fluctuations. The resumption of soybean auction by CGSCO has cooled market sentiment. The purchase of high - protein soybeans has price advantages. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans are increasing, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is consolidating. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal futures M2601 fluctuates strongly. After the Sino - US trade negotiation eases, the price of US soybeans is in a wide - range shock. The domestic soybean crushing volume in October was about 8.6 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.7 million tons in November. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded slightly. The import cost has increased, and the crushing profit has been repaired. It is expected that the soybean supply will be basically sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal rebounds from a low level. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased last week, and the soybean oil inventory decreased. The crushing profit of near - month shipment of soybeans is not good. Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased slightly. The MPOB report in November is bearish. The high - frequency data in early November shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from November 1 - 5, and the export demand declined from November 1 - 10. Short - term attention should be paid to the high - inventory pressure of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions and trading volumes of domestic rapeseed futures' main contracts have decreased. It is a pattern of strong oil and weak meal today. The price increase of rapeseed meal is mainly due to the increase in overseas oilseed prices and the improvement of import expectations. The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. The inventories of rapeseed meal and granulated powder are slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory has declined more than expected. The short - term strategy for domestic rapeseed products is to wait and see [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continue to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The new corn in the Northeast has a small increase in volume, and the price is slightly stronger. The on - site volume of Shandong has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The import of US corn still has no price advantage. The new corn in the Northeast will continue to be listed, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is consolidating. The futures price has rebounded after reaching the bottom. The technical chart shows that the downward momentum is insufficient. The overall slaughter rhythm may slow down, and the seasonal demand is increasing. The pig price may enter a seasonal rebound stage. In the long - term, the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month contracts of egg futures led the rise before, but the spot sentiment weakened over the weekend, and the near - month contracts led the decline on Monday. The follow - up trading idea can be to try shorting on rallies. The industry's production capacity is still at a high level, and the sentiment of culling is increasing marginally. Attention should be paid to the performance of egg spot and vegetable prices [9]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - After the Sino - US agreement, domestic soybean meal has returned to the CBOT soybean cost - pricing model, and the price transmission chain between China and the US has been re - established. Due to cost increases and low crushing profits, the support at the bottom of soybean meal is relatively strong. In the context of strong policy uncertainty, treat soybean meal with short - term cautious optimism. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost increase expectation caused by China's small - scale purchase of US soybeans later [6] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Trading Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3065, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3034, the closing price was 3058, down 12 or - 0.39%, with a trading volume of 951,916 and an open interest of 1,577,123, an increase of 8,927. Similar data is provided for the 2603 and 2605 contracts [6] - **International Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract at 1110 cents. After the Sino - US agreement in late October, the US expected China to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons per year for the next three years. However, with a 13% tariff on US soybean imports, it is more cost - effective for Chinese oil mills to import Brazilian soybeans, and it is difficult to achieve the purchase targets. The US government shutdown makes it impossible to verify China's purchase situation, and uncertainties are high [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The reports were not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing soybeans for the 2025/26 season. Most farmland soil moisture is in the "optimal" state. The exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The data sources for various figures (such as soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate) are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14]

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports in USD terms decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3% and down from 8.3% in September[2] - October's exports saw a month-on-month decline of 7.1%, approaching historical lows (2022's -7.7%) due to seasonal factors and a high base effect from the previous year[5] - The two-year average year-on-year growth for October was 5.5%, similar to September's 5.3%[3] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US showed marginal improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, marking a significant recovery compared to historical lows in July and August[18] - Conversely, exports to the EU exhibited weakness, with a month-on-month decline of 8.6% in October, indicating potential risks in EU demand[18] - Exports to ASEAN countries improved slightly, with a month-on-month change of -0.7%, aligning closely with historical averages[19] Future Outlook - For Q4, the low base in November and slightly higher base in December suggest potential year-on-year growth of 1.2% for Q4, with an annual growth estimate of 4.8%[21] - The reduction of the fentanyl tariff by the US may further enhance export performance to the US, as it narrows the tax rate gap with other regions[21] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest a potential recovery in export growth for November and December[22] Price and Volume Dynamics - The average export price for 15 major products increased by 5.1% in October, driven by significant price rises in ships, while the export volume growth for these products fell to 5.2%[57] - The overall export price index showed a year-on-year decline of 2.5% for the first eight months of the year, lagging behind global trade price growth of 1%[31] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in October was reported at $901 billion, slightly down from $904 billion in September, indicating a narrowing trend[54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent changes in U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, highlighting both the potential benefits and challenges faced by companies in adapting to these changes. Group 1: Tariff Changes and Economic Impact - The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution to reduce tariffs on certain goods, which could potentially increase China's export growth to the U.S. by 3-5% for every 10% decrease in tariffs [7] - Last year, a company faced significant pressure on profits due to increased tariffs, with exports nearing $100 million [3] - The reduction of tariffs from 34% to 10% has been a source of cautious optimism among business leaders, as it may allow for renegotiation of prices with U.S. clients [5][7] Group 2: Operational Challenges and Workforce Issues - Despite tariff reductions, companies still face high shipping costs, which remain elevated compared to the previous year, indicating that not all cost issues are resolved [8] - There are ongoing discussions about how to allocate savings from reduced tariffs, with options including salary increases, expansion, or research and development [10] - The local workforce is experiencing uncertainty, with some workers considering returning home to start their own businesses due to job losses [8][12] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - The legislative process surrounding tariff changes is complex, with the Senate's decision being just one part of a larger system that includes the House of Representatives and presidential approval [14] - Companies are weighing short-term profits against long-term strategies, learning to diversify risks rather than relying solely on tariff changes [14][16] - The overall sentiment among consumers is mixed, with price sensitivity to imported goods increasing, reflecting broader economic conditions [7][12]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's decision to significantly reduce tariffs on certain Chinese goods is portrayed as a cooperative gesture, but it is primarily a response to inflation, supply chain issues, and electoral pressures [1][3] - The reduction in tariffs specifically targets products that are critical to the U.S. supply chain, such as fentanyl raw materials, circuit components, and battery components, indicating a tactical compromise rather than a strategic shift [3][5] - The U.S. inflation rate reached a 2008 high, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 4.8% year-on-year and core CPI at 6.8%, leading to increased financial burdens on American households [5] Group 2 - The U.S. has faced challenges in its manufacturing return efforts, with companies like Apple and Intel experiencing setbacks, while China has diversified its trade through initiatives like the Belt and Road and RCEP, increasing exports to ASEAN and Africa [7][14] - A significant percentage of U.S. small businesses are at risk of bankruptcy due to tariffs, prompting pressure from retail associations on the White House to adjust policies [7][14] - China has strategically managed its response to U.S. tariff adjustments, leveraging its dominance in rare earth exports and agricultural procurement to exert pressure on U.S. industries [11][14] Group 3 - The resilience of China's supply chain has become a competitive advantage, with companies like Tesla and Nvidia seeking exemptions from U.S. restrictions, highlighting the unintended consequences of U.S. policies [12][14] - China's approach to negotiations emphasizes the removal of all sanctions as a prerequisite, while simultaneously expanding its domestic market and regional supply chains [14][16] - The U.S. is shifting towards a more targeted approach in trade policy, forming alliances with countries like Japan and South Korea to create a semiconductor "small circle" [15][16]

Core Insights - Watts Water Technologies (WTS) exceeded Wall Street's revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, reporting sales of $611.7 million, a 12.5% year-on-year increase, and a non-GAAP profit of $2.50 per share, which was 10.5% above analysts' consensus estimates [1][3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue: $611.7 million vs analyst estimates of $576.2 million (12.5% year-on-year growth, 6.2% beat) [6] - Adjusted EPS: $2.50 vs analyst estimates of $2.26 (10.5% beat) [6] - Adjusted EBITDA: $127.1 million vs analyst estimates of $116.7 million (20.8% margin, 8.9% beat) [6] - Operating Margin: 18.2%, up from 17.1% in the same quarter last year [6] - Organic Revenue rose 9.4% year on year vs analyst estimates of 3.7% growth (567.3 basis point beat) [6] - Market Capitalization: $8.79 billion [6] Market Dynamics - Strong organic growth in the Americas was driven by price increases and pull-forward demand ahead of tariff adjustments, while European performance showed early signs of stabilization [3][4] - Management noted that ongoing supply chain volatility and potential further tariff adjustments remain risks [4][5] Management Commentary - CEO Robert Pagano highlighted that organic sales increased 9% in the quarter, with favorable pricing in the Americas and volume growth offsetting declines in Europe [3][5] - CFO Ryan Lada stated that the company is raising its full-year sales and margin outlook due to a strong third quarter, incremental price increases, favorable foreign exchange, and strong sales in data centers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Intertek Textile (01382.HK), anticipates a significant decline in profit for the six months ending September 30, 2025, with expected earnings between approximately HKD 72 million and HKD 82 million, compared to HKD 106.9 million for the same period last year [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast - The company's projected profit for the upcoming reporting period is significantly lower than the previous year, indicating a decrease of approximately 32% to 33% [1] - The anticipated profit range for the reporting period is between HKD 72 million and HKD 82 million [1] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Profit Decline - A major factor for the profit decline is a sharp decrease in sales orders, particularly between April and June 2025, due to the U.S. imposing a substantial tariff increase on goods imported from Vietnam, raising it to 46% [1] - The low utilization rate of production facilities has led to higher fixed cost amortization, further impacting profitability [1] Group 3: Recovery Indicators - The impact of the U.S. import tariffs began to diminish from July 2025, with the tariff rate subsequently reduced to 20% [1] - Sales order levels have returned to the levels seen in March 2025, and the utilization rate of the two Vietnamese factories has rebounded to between 80% and 90% [1]