以下文章来源于日经中文网 ，作者日经中文网 日经中文网 . 编制日经指数的《日本经济新闻》的中文版。提供日本、中国、欧美财经金融信息、商务、企业、高科技报道、评论和专栏。 日美两国政府就为期近100天的关税谈判达成协议。在成为谈判最后时限的8月1日之前，支持基础出现动摇的美国总统特朗普为了取得成果，一口气加快 了达成妥协的步伐。此举意在将日美协议作为与欧盟（EU）等剩余地区和国家谈判的立足点。 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 特朗普称"想进行谈判" "总统的日程空着，总统想进行谈判"，在协议前一天的7月21日晚，在华盛顿近郊的美国商务部长卢特尼克的私宅。坐在卢特尼克对面的日本经济财政兼 再生相赤泽亮正被如此告知。 美国白宫总统办公室，特朗普向坐在对面的赤泽亮正连声提问，"是否从波音公司采购？"赤泽亮正回答说"会"。特朗普还当场用笔将白板上写的日本投资支援额 从"4000亿美元"改为"5000亿美元"。"急于达成协议的不是日本，而是美国"…… 与卢特尼克的会谈持续到晚上11点左右，达到2个多小时，成为设想第二天与美国总统特朗普面对面谈判的预演。日本政府相关人士透露，赤泽亮正在羽 田机场起飞时并未设想与特朗普会面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market is in a macro data vacuum period, and investors are speculating on news and policy expectations. The upcoming Politburo meeting and the third Sino-US trade negotiation in Sweden have raised market expectations for more incremental policies and improved Sino-US trade relations. Market trading activity has increased, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has exceeded 900 billion yuan for three consecutive weeks [6][12]. - Treasury futures fell collectively this week, and the bond market was under pressure. The "anti-involution" policy and other factors have accelerated the diversion of funds to the stock and commodity markets. If relevant details of the "anti-involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Under the influence of weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space of long-term bonds may be limited, and interest rate bonds are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - The commodity index may continue to rise due to the in - line GDP growth in the second quarter, the approaching Politburo meeting, and the progress of the "anti-involution" policy and tariff negotiations [6]. - The US dollar may maintain a short - term range - bound and slightly stronger trend due to the resilience of the employment market and the easing of trade frictions. The euro may be temporarily suppressed in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and the EU [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock Market**: A-share major indices, except the Shanghai Composite Index, rose by more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks stronger. The market is in a macro data vacuum, awaiting the Politburo meeting and Sino-US trade negotiations. Market trading activity increased, and northbound funds' trading volume has been high for three consecutive weeks. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6][12]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures fell, and the bond market was under pressure. The "anti-involution" policy and other factors led to fund diversion. The long - end of the bond market performed much weaker than the short - end. The long - term bond adjustment space may be limited, and interest rate bonds are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The commodity index may continue to rise due to policy and economic factors. The recommended allocation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar may maintain a short - term range - bound and slightly stronger trend, while the euro may be temporarily suppressed. The recommended allocation strategy is to watch cautiously [6][11]. Important News and Events - **Domestic**: Four departments deployed to regulate the new energy vehicle industry competition order; the "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented on September 15; the national economy in the first half of 2025 was stable and improving, and the fiscal policy will continue to be proactive in the second half; the "trade - in" policy for consumer goods has achieved significant results [14]. - **International**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries to "negative"; a Fed governor called for a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July; the EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement; the US and Japan reached a tariff negotiation agreement [11][16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The one - year LPR remained unchanged at 3%; the year - on - year growth rate of total social power consumption in June was 5.4%, and the consumption volume was 867 billion kWh [17]. - **US**: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in July was - 20; the Conference Board Leading Index in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month; the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 19 were 2.17 million; the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 [17]. - **EU**: The consumer confidence index in July was - 14.7; the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8; the ECB deposit mechanism rate remained at 2% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The manufacturing PMI in the UK, Germany, and France in July showed different degrees of change [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **July 28 - 31**: Include the UK's CBI retail sales difference, US housing price indices, GDP data of France and the eurozone, US ADP employment data, and central bank interest rate decisions of the US and Japan [80][81]. - **August 1**: Include Japan's unemployment rate, eurozone CPI, US unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing PMI [81].

Group 1 - The CEO of Volkswagen stated that the company is offering "highly attractive investment proposals" to expand its presence in the U.S. market [1] - It is anticipated that the tariff levels following negotiations between Europe and the U.S. will be around 15% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations between the EU and the US regarding tariffs, particularly in light of a recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which sets a precedent for the EU's negotiations. The EU is aiming to avoid a 30% punitive tariff by agreeing to a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which would apply to sensitive products like automobiles [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is in high-level discussions with the US to establish a tariff framework similar to the recent US-Japan agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on EU goods to the US [1][5]. - The EU's current average tariff on US goods is 4.8%, with an additional 10% special tariff imposed by the US since April [1]. - The EU is preparing a countermeasure list of US goods worth €93 billion, matching the proposed 30% tariff, which includes significant products like Boeing aircraft and American automobiles [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If the US implements a 30% punitive tariff, it could push the Eurozone economy towards recession, potentially reducing annual growth by up to 0.3 percentage points over the next two years [8]. - The EU's response to US tariffs is expected to be more targeted and smaller in scale compared to the US's broad tariff measures, which may lead to a more restrained reaction than the market anticipates [8][9]. - Despite the uncertainty, European stock markets are expected to maintain an upward trend in the next six months, although they may face short-term adjustments due to market sentiment and trade policy uncertainties [8][9].

Core Views - The market index has reached a critical level at 3600 points, indicating a significant divide in market sentiment and trend [2][11] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking and external disturbances, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact supported by policy backing and industrial upgrades [3][12] - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, with abundant structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock selection and timing skills [11][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 23.43 points, with a trading volume of 18,447 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [6][11] - The market showed mixed performance with sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and energy metals experiencing significant gains, while precious metals and banking sectors faced declines [7][8][11] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone saw a surge due to the upcoming full island "closure" on December 18, which will significantly increase the proportion of zero-tariff imports [7] - The energy metals sector rose sharply following government announcements of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [8] - The securities sector has shown resilience, with expectations of improved performance driven by increased trading volumes and favorable economic conditions [9] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept [3][10] - Medium-term investments should target growth sectors with high elasticity, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][12]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced an increase driven by optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and economic conditions, with NYMEX light crude oil futures rising by $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, a 1.2% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, a 0.98% increase [1][2] - The optimism in the market is attributed to progress in U.S. tariff negotiations, which is expected to help avoid the worst-case scenarios [1] - The Chicago Fed reported that the national economic activity index for June was -0.1, better than the market expectation of -0.16 and the previous month's -0.28 [1] Group 2 - Barclays oil analyst Amarpreet Singh noted that OPEC+ member countries are accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts, indicating growing optimism about the oil market outlook [2] - Strong oil demand is supported by U.S. oil inventory levels, refining margins, and high-frequency trade data, while U.S. production appears to be declining from its peak [2] - Reports suggest that the Trump administration plans to allow Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela, although details remain undisclosed [2]

Core Points - Brazil's Vice President confirmed a conversation with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, emphasizing Brazil's willingness to negotiate on tariffs [1] - The dialogue was described as positive, although it was characterized as a private conversation [1]

巴西财长Haddad：有一些与前总统博索纳罗有关联的巴西人正在努力阻止与美国就关税展开谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The European Union has approved a measure to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products totaling €93 billion, following a period of trade negotiations that seemed to be progressing [1][5] - The retaliatory tariffs will target high-value industrial products such as aircraft, automobiles, wine, and electrical equipment, with the first round of tariffs already implemented earlier this year on items like soybeans and motorcycles [5] - The EU's decision comes amid a backdrop of positive economic data, with the Eurozone's July Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.6 in June to 51, indicating economic resilience [4] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the retaliatory tariffs, European stock markets experienced a sharp decline, reversing earlier gains that were attributed to positive economic indicators [2][3] - Analysts expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current policy stance, although there may be one or two interest rate cuts in the next six months due to the ongoing trade tensions impacting export performance and inflation [4]