美国总统特朗普：正与其他国家进行谈判，尚未进行谈判的国家将会收到一张"关税账单"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical game window has been advanced, and the market has short - term upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors in Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and focus on the US ADP employment, Q2 GDP and the Fed meeting [3]. - Various commodities show different trends. Some are subject to supply - demand factors, some are affected by policies such as "anti - involution", and some are influenced by international trade negotiations and weather conditions [2 - 46]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. Geopolitical factors and trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and the short - term market has upward support [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macroeconomic and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but the cracking spread of fuel oil is expected to be under pressure due to weak fundamentals [22]. - **Asphalt**: The August domestic production volume is expected to decline. Demand recovery is delayed, and the inventory reduction rhythm slows down. The price follows the trend of crude oil with limited upward space [23]. - **Urea**: The futures contract runs at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is likely to run in a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port inventory is unexpectedly reduced. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Reduced risk - aversion demand suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated overnight. The market focuses on tariff agreements and the Fed meeting. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, the price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. In the off - season, demand declines, and inventory increases. It is in short - term adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a callback, with increased supply and weak demand. The short - term direction is unclear, and the medium - term idea is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand of lead is weak. The price rebounds slowly, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. One can try to go long with a light position [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates. The hype of the "anti - involution" theme cools down, and the nickel price may return to fundamentals. Wait for short - selling opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates. There is short - term support at 265,000 yuan. The long - term supply pressure suppresses the price, and high - level short positions can be held [11]. - **Silicon - based Metals** - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is expected to rise in the short term due to improved manganese ore inventory expectations and "anti - involution" influence [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese. There is some upward drive in the short term [20]. Building Materials and Related Products - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The night - session steel prices strengthened. Rebar demand improved, and hot - rolled coil demand declined. The market is supported by cost and policy expectations [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose overnight. Supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal rose. The coking industry's fourth - round price increase is in progress, and inventory is decreasing. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on coking coal [17][18]. - **Glass**: The glass price rose at night. Industry profit slightly recovered, but long - term demand is weak. Wait for policy signals [31]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price rose at night. Inventory declined, and production increased slightly. There is still supply - demand pressure after the emotional boost fades [33]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean good - quality rate is high, and the price is under pressure. Sino - US trade negotiations and weather are the focus [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be bought on dips. Pay attention to weather and policies [35]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price rose, and the rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Adopt a short - term neutral strategy [36]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [38]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Eggs**: The egg price fluctuates slightly. The far - month contracts are stronger. Be cautious of the reverse fluctuation of spot and near - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton good - quality rate declined, and the Brazilian harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton is in high - level oscillation. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar production has uncertainties. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The new - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price has increased. The market focuses on the new - season yield estimate [43]. - **Timber**: The timber price is expected to rise. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Adopt a long - biased strategy [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price is likely to return to low - level oscillation. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak [45]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is approaching. The Sino - US tariff exemption extension may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Equity Index**: A - shares rose, and the futures index also closed higher. The market focuses on the Fed meeting and domestic policies. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market may face increased volatility, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated strongly, rising 0.41% to $9,803/ton; SHFE copper rose 0.14% to 79,090 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still in a loss state. The labor market shows resilience, and there are certain progresses in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, with the upcoming Fed's July interest - rate meeting and the impending US tariff on copper on August 1st, the market short - term volatility will increase, and the weekly market should be viewed with caution [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The spot price of aluminum ingots remained flat. Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite starts to decline. There is a cost support, and there is a certain risk of short squeeze under low warehouse receipts. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has changed marginally, leading to smooth inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy currently lacks an independent driver [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.62% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.39% to 122,380 yuan/ton. The short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment and show a weak trend. Fundamentally, there is little change, presenting a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The labor market data shows little change, indicating resilience. Sino - US trade negotiations have made some progress, and the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories have different changes. The off - season affects consumption, but some enterprises replenish stocks in advance. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting and the upcoming US tariff on copper on August 1st will increase market volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures and spot prices show different trends. The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite exports. There is cost support, and there is a short - squeeze risk under low warehouse receipts. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum changes, leading to inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy lacks an independent driver [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rise. The inventory changes, and the prices of nickel - related products show different trends. The short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and the fundamentals show little change, presenting a volatile operation [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the scrap - refined price difference decreased. LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper inventories changed, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The LME0 - 3 premium and CIF bill of lading price decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead and the price of recycled lead remained stable, while the price of reduced lead decreased. The LME lead inventory increased, and the SHFE lead inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased. The LME aluminum inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and some new - energy nickel products decreased. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased, and the spot price decreased. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE zinc inventory increased. The social inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price and LME price decreased. The spot price and tin - concentrate price decreased. The LME and SHFE tin inventories increased [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][45]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research, a senior researcher of precious metals, etc.; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The global trade situation is stabilizing with positive progress in tariff negotiations between the US and its major trading partners, which has led to a decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. Different commodities are expected to show various trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Tariff negotiations have made progress. The US and China plan to extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine agreement deadline and threatened to raise taxes on Russia, causing oil prices to soar. India postponed concessions and aims to reach an agreement with the US in September - October. The US labor market is cooling but remains robust. The US 6 - month job openings dropped to 7.437 million, and the hiring rate fell to 3.3%. - Domestic: Market sentiment is positive, actively speculating on policy expectations. Commodity fluctuations have intensified. A - shares opened lower and closed higher with heavy trading volume. The bond market significantly adjusted under pressure. In the long - term, social security policies are expected to ease over - capacity and involution problems, and domestic demand policies may continue to strengthen. In the short - term, beware of market adjustments after the fading of sentiment and the realization of policy benefits [2][3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 2.08% to $3383 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The market is concerned about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed meeting. The US and China will extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The EU may purchase 40 billion euros of AI chips in the US - EU trade agreement. The US labor market data is weak, and the trade deficit has narrowed. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but is highly concerned about its policy outlook. If more Fed members support a rate cut in September, it may boost gold prices. Short - term gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [4][5][6]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper sought support at the $9700 level. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved slightly, and domestic trade copper rose to a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade talks made positive progress, and the IMF significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year to 4.8%. The market is concerned that the US may impose a 50% copper import tariff starting from Friday. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are at a low level. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rebound in the short - term [7][8]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, SHFE aluminum closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and LME aluminum closed at $2606 per ton, down 0.95%. The spot market supply has slightly increased, but consumer buying willingness is still low due to high - price concerns and the off - season. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The spot alumina national average price rose to 3267 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price increased to $379 per ton. A strike occurred at the Friguia alumina plant in Guinea, affecting production. The deliverable alumina supply is limited, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased to a new low. Alumina's downward trend has slowed, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, SHFE zinc showed narrow - range fluctuations, and LME zinc stabilized. The downstream buying willingness is low, and the spot market maintains a small premium. The Sino - US trade negotiations have not made a major breakthrough. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic important meetings. Although heavy rain in the north has not affected galvanizing plant production, terminal demand is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [14][15]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, SHFE lead showed narrow - range fluctuations. Heavy rain in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has affected raw material transportation. The supply shortage in some areas has slightly improved. The supply is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and consumer demand has changed little. It is expected that lead prices will consolidate horizontally in the short - term [16][17]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, SHFE tin was volatile. The rainy season in Myanmar may disrupt tin ore transportation, intensifying the shortage of raw material supply. Domestic refined tin smelter operations have marginally improved but remain at a low level. The off - season for downstream consumption continues, and high - price buying is insufficient. Domestic inventories have increased, but LME inventories are at a low level. It is expected that tin prices will adjust, but the adjustment range will be limited [18]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract continued to rebound. The spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 silicon has a premium over the 2509 contract. The warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously declining. The supply side is contracting, and the demand side is affected by various factors. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rebound in the short - term [19][20]. 3.10 Steel and Iron - **Screw and Coil**: On Tuesday, steel futures rebounded. The Sino - US trade negotiations reached a consensus to extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The macro - situation is positive, and supply is expected to shrink in mid - August due to parade - related production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore futures rebounded. Port inventories decreased, mainly due to reduced arrivals and resilient steel mill purchases. Steel mills are profitable, and iron ore supply remains stable. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate and rebound [23]. 3.11 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is favorable, increasing the expectation of high yields. The US and China will extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. China mainly purchases South American soybeans recently, and there is a concern about supply shortage in the fourth quarter. It is expected that domestic soybean meal futures will stop falling and fluctuate [24]. - **Palm Oil**: On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade tariff quotas. India may increase imports due to low inventories and holiday demand. Crude oil prices have risen. It is expected that palm oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. 3.12 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., on July 29 [27]. 3.13 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, etc., such as contract prices, warehouse receipt inventories, spot prices, and price differentials between different dates [28][31][33].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a new tariff agreement between the United States and the European Union, which ends a prolonged trade standoff and sets the tariff rate at 15% instead of the threatened 30% [1] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1] - The negotiations were challenging, with both sides having differing expectations on tariff levels, but ultimately resulted in a deal that both parties deemed beneficial [1] Group 2 - Various European leaders have responded to the agreement, with some expressing reservations about the terms, indicating that the high tariff levels still pose challenges for bilateral trade [2] - The European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman expressed strong dissatisfaction with the agreement, labeling it biased and potentially harmful to Europe's long-term interests [2] - A German publication noted that this is the first time the EU has accepted a trade agreement that increases export tariffs, suggesting that transatlantic trade relations may become more difficult and costly [2]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern characterized by structural opportunities, driven by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy support, and an overall improvement in liquidity conditions [2][8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding high-flying stocks and suggests focusing on low-performing sectors that are likely to rotate, which is a key trend in the current market dynamics [2][9] Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point mark, with no significant signs of weakness despite some index divergence [2][9] - The report notes that the market is likely entering a period of consolidation, with indices expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest previous pressures [4][8] - Key characteristics of the market include a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" trend, with the ChiNext index performing particularly well, reaching new highs for the year [8][10] Sector Analysis Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is highlighted as a growth area, with recent policy changes from the National Medical Insurance Administration expected to support this segment [6][7] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector has significant investment value due to its previous downturn, low price-to-earnings ratios, and the increasing demand driven by an aging population [6] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector is noted for its strong performance, with government policies supporting the industry and a projected global market growth of over 15% by 2025 [7] - The report encourages investment in the semiconductor sector, particularly in companies that are leading in technology and can adapt quickly to industry changes [7] Trading Strategy - The report advises investors to maintain a rational approach, avoiding blind speculation and focusing on sector rotation, especially in low-performing areas [2][9] - It suggests that investors should consider reducing positions in stocks that have seen significant gains and look for opportunities in sectors that have lagged behind [2][9]

Group 1 - The core issue is the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, with a focus on tariffs and economic strategies [2][4] - The EU has agreed to a 15% tariff and committed to investing $600 billion in the US, along with purchasing $750 billion in energy over the next three years [2][3] - Japan has also agreed to a 15% tariff and will invest $550 billion in the US, while reducing tariffs on agricultural products [3][4] Group 2 - China is expected to take a firmer stance in negotiations, learning from past experiences where concessions led to further demands from the US [4] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is crucial for determining China's economic policy direction for the second half of the year [5][6] - The focus will shift from export-driven growth to domestic demand, with an emphasis on stimulating consumption and economic recovery [7][8] Group 3 - The policy framework will prioritize inflation control, as rising prices are seen as essential for economic recovery and consumer spending [8] - Investment will be directed towards urban infrastructure and public services, indicating a shift in focus from large-scale infrastructure projects to urban quality improvement [8][9] - A new wealth model is anticipated, where housing policies will resemble those in Singapore and Hong Kong, with a significant portion of the population living in government-subsidized housing [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Japan and the United States have reached an agreement on tariffs after extensive negotiations, but the lack of a legally binding document and Japan's political instability pose challenges for the implementation of the agreement [1][3][6] - The agreement includes a reduction of mutual tariffs and tariffs on automobiles and auto parts to 15% by the U.S., while Japan will increase imports of U.S. agricultural products by $8 billion and commit to significant investments in U.S. industries [2][4] - Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion is controversial, as the U.S. expects 90% of the returns to go to them, while Japan argues that this figure refers to financing and guarantees rather than direct government spending [5][6] Group 2 - The absence of a formal agreement document has led to differing interpretations of the terms, raising concerns about future compliance and potential disputes [3][6] - The political landscape in Japan, with the ruling coalition losing power, complicates the situation, as the government may struggle to implement the agreement effectively [1][7] - The U.S. has threatened to impose additional tariffs if Japan does not meet the terms of the agreement, further increasing uncertainty around the deal [6][7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Insights - The market anticipates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting[3] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged due to mixed economic data and tariff concerns[3] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, indicating a strong desire for lower rates[3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Conditions - The upcoming meeting may clarify conditions for potential rate cuts, with Powell likely to outline specific criteria[3] - Three scenarios are considered for Powell's communication: maintaining ambiguity, indicating a possible September cut, or outlining conditions for future cuts[3] - The likelihood of maintaining a vague stance is deemed low due to increasing pressure from Trump and potential market volatility[3] Group 3: Market Volatility and Risks - The FOMC meeting precedes significant earnings reports from major tech companies and ongoing US-China trade talks, which may heighten market volatility[3] - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market fluctuations[6]