美联储主席鲍威尔近日在国会听证会上重申"等待观望"策略，明确表示美联储将继续保持政策定力，在进一步明确经济走势前不会贸然调整利率。这一表态 与美联储连续第四次维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%区间的决策一脉相承，凸显出当前美国经济面临的复杂博弈：通胀黏性、就业韧性、关税冲击与政治压 力交织，迫使美联储在"稳物价"与"保就业"之间寻求微妙平衡。 政治压力与政策独立性的博弈进一步加剧了市场焦虑。特朗普多次公开施压美联储降息，甚至威胁解雇鲍威尔，试图通过降低融资成本缓解关税对经济的冲 击。但鲍威尔在听证会上重申"政策不受政治干预"，强调美联储将依据数据而非政治指令行事。这种对抗背后，折射出美国货币政策与财政目标的深层冲 突：宽松政策可能加剧通胀，而紧缩则可能加速经济衰退。 市场对美联储降息时点的预期仍存分歧。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，7月维持利率不变的概率为83.5%，但9月降息25个基点的概率已升至66.2%。部分 美联储官员如沃勒、鲍曼已释放"7月降息"信号，但鲍威尔的谨慎表态表明，除非就业市场显著恶化或通胀超预期回落，否则美联储不会轻易改变观望策 略。这种"数据依赖型"决策模式，使得未来政策路径高度依 ...

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, have increased their dividends following the Federal Reserve's stress tests [1][2] - All 22 banks that underwent the stress tests demonstrated sufficient capital to withstand hypothetical economic downturns, with the ability to absorb over $550 billion in losses [2][6] - The Federal Reserve's stress tests, a response to the 2008 financial crisis, set the framework for how banks return capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [2][6] Group 2 - Specific dividend increases include Bank of America raising its dividend from 26 cents to 28 cents, Citigroup from 56 cents to 60 cents, and Goldman Sachs from $3.00 to $4.00 [2] - JPMorgan's board approved a $50 billion stock buyback plan, while Morgan Stanley reauthorized a $20 billion buyback plan without a set expiration date [1][2] - The Federal Reserve announced plans to reform its processes, including averaging results over two years for capital requirements, aimed at reducing volatility in stress test outcomes [6]

华尔街大行通过宽松压力测试后宣布大额分红 金十数据7月2日讯，周二，华尔街多家大型银行在通过监管机构的"压力测试"后，宣布了一系列大规模 股东分红计划，而此次压力测试的条件较往年更为宽松。摩根大通、高盛、美国银行、摩根士丹利等银 行均表示，将提高向股东支付的季度股息，其中摩根大通和摩根士丹利还宣布将回购价值数十亿美元的 自家股票。今年的压力测试是美联储调整测试场景后的首次尝试，其设定的理论衰退程度较去年有所减 轻。尽管新测试方案在特朗普总统重新就职前就已制定，但这与特朗普政府所倡导的放宽银行监管政策 不谋而合。 ...

不过，深圳非住宅房源的仍面临较大的去化压力。深圳贝壳研究院的数据显示，截至目前深圳非住宅可 售套数为19416套，去化周期虽然回落至50.7个月，但整体去化压力依然巨大。在此背景下，打折促销 成为房企的"抉择"。深圳龙岗一处商务公寓的营销负责人对记者表示，由于去化较难，公司在最近推出 剩余房源，给出超过8折的折扣优惠，一些投资客看重出租回报率，销售情况才有所好转，目前所剩房 源已经不多。 据深圳中原研究中心统计，今年上半年深圳二手住宅过户29231套，同比增长36.6%。根据乐有家门店 成交数据计算，6月深圳二手成交价为每平方米6.03万元，环比小幅下降1.5%。6月深圳二手住宅挂牌均 价为每平方米6.42万元，环比小幅下滑1.2%。 在业内人士看来，楼市政策相对"平稳"的背景下，深圳楼市上半年展现出一定韧性。 深圳贝壳研究院最新公布的数据显示，今年上半年深圳新房与二手房成交超6.5万套，同比增长53.2%， 其中住宅成交超过5.1万套，同比增长41.8%。"从同比增幅来看，深圳在热点城市中是最典型的代表， 回升幅度也是最大的。"广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示。 根据深圳贝壳研究院统计，2025上 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/1 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/27 | | 2025/6/23 | 至 2025/6/27 | | | 焦炭 | 1421.50 | 焦炭 | | 2.67% | | | 铜 | 79920.00 | 铜 | | 2.47% | | ...

昨日，豫园股份披露拟发行40亿元公司债券，用于调整债务结构、偿还到期债务以及补充流动资金。大手笔融资背后，公司的债务压力巨大，现金流不足以 覆盖短期借款、一年内到期的非流动负债。 2024年，豫园股份录得营收、净利双双大降的成绩单，其中归母净利润骤降超九成，已经连续三年下滑，而扣非净利润已经连续两年亏损，且有所加剧，公 司收入重心产业运营、物业开发与销售业务均遭受重挫，后者计提资产减值准备直接对利润产生不利影响。 需要指出的是，公司2024年以来的人事调整频繁，原因包括工作调整、个人职业发展、以及到龄退休等，短短一年时间，管理层如此变动难免会影响投资者 对公司的看法。 要融资40亿，去年终止定增 6月30日，复星旗下公司豫园股份披露债券发行预案，拟公开发行不超过40亿元的固定利率债券，期限不超过7年（含7年），可为单一期限品种，也可为多 种期限的混合品种，票面利率尚未确定。 豫园股份本次拟融资40亿元，用途包括但不限于偿还公司到期债务及补充流动资金。另外，公司承诺在出现预计不能按期偿付本次债券本息或者到期未能按 期偿付债券本息时，将采取相应偿债保障措施，包括但不限于不向股东分配利润；暂缓重大对外投资、收购兼并 ...

PX成本支撑偏弱，关注TA高加工费供应压力增大可能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月30日，PX 主力合约收6796.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.65%，基差为 40.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4798.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.42%，基差 为222.0元/吨。 成本端，06月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.34美元/桶。WTI收65.07美元/ 桶。需求端，06月30日，轻纺城成交总量为663.0万米，15 日平均成交为 620.33万米。 PX：成本端受国际原油价格维持窄幅震荡趋势，能提供的支撑相对有限。 亚洲地区新增装置投产预期可能带来供应压力，叠加下游PTA加工费修复空 间有限或抑制原料采购积极性，预计PX价格将维持震荡格局。 PTA：PTA下游聚酯开工率高位，终端纺织成交回暖，需求端有所反弹。基 差走强反映现货偏紧，PX成本支撑边际减弱，PTA加工费高位下开工负荷或 继续维持，关注供应端恢复压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of bank stocks has outpaced the market in 2025, with Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) showing significant gains compared to the S&P 500 index [2][3] Group 1: Bank Performance - Goldman Sachs' stock price has increased by 23% year-to-date, while JPMorgan Chase has risen by 22%, compared to a 5.1% increase in the S&P 500 index [2] - Following the Federal Reserve's "health check" report on the banking system, bank stocks continued to perform strongly, with Goldman Sachs being the largest gainer among the top six U.S. banks, rising 2.5% on Monday [3] - The financial sector ETF, Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), also rose by 0.8%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.4% [6] Group 2: Stress Test Results - The Federal Reserve's stress test results indicated that the U.S. banking system remains robust even under simulated recession conditions, with strong pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) and reduced counterparty losses [2] - Analysts noted that Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and M&T Bank (MTB.N) are expected to see a more significant decline in their future capital buffers compared to other banks, potentially allowing for more capital to be released for lending, stock buybacks, or dividends [2][3] - The average common equity tier 1 capital ratio for the 16 largest banks is projected to decline by 100 basis points, with Goldman Sachs experiencing a drop of 240 basis points, the largest among the banks covered by Jefferies [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts have indicated that while capital requirements are expected to decrease, it may not lead to immediate large-scale shareholder returns, as banks are likely to observe the new norms before making significant decisions [6] - Some banks may adjust their dividend increases or seek regulatory reviews, which could impact the final capital buffer requirements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on banks to attract deposits as the end of the quarter approaches, leading to a significant rise in interest rates offered to depositors, with some rates exceeding industry norms [2][4][6]. Group 1: Deposit Pressure and Interest Rates - Banks are facing heightened pressure to meet deposit targets, especially at the end of the month and quarter, resulting in offers of interest rates as high as "万12" (12 yuan for every 10,000 yuan) and even "万17" [2][4][5]. - The typical interest rates offered by banks have doubled compared to previous levels, which were around "万5" to "万8" [2][4]. - Employees are reportedly using personal funds to supplement interest rates to meet these targets, indicating a trend of "hand-made interest" practices [2][5][8]. Group 2: Declining Deposit Attractiveness - The attractiveness of bank deposits has decreased due to continuous interest rate cuts, leading many customers to prefer investment products over traditional savings [6][8]. - Recent rounds of interest rate reductions have seen banks collectively offering rates in the "1" range, further diminishing the appeal of deposits [6][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies have been tightening controls on banks' liability cost management, particularly regarding practices like "hand-made interest," which are being scrutinized [8]. - Banks are required to comply with regulations that limit high-interest deposit solicitation, leading to creative but potentially non-compliant methods of attracting deposits [2][8].

欧洲央行管理委员会成员、立陶宛央行行长格迪米纳斯.西姆库斯在葡萄牙辛特拉出席年度政策会议期间接受采访时指出，当前欧元区通胀形势 仍面临多重下行压力。他特别警示，近期欧元兑美元汇率急速攀升与中东地缘冲突引发的能源市场波动，可能使通胀率再度偏离2%的调控目 标。"从风险平衡角度看，通胀持续低于目标水平的概率已超过上行风险。"这位央行官员坦言。 在货币政策走向方面，西姆库斯重申7月例会维持利率不变是最可能的政策选项。这一表态与市场主流预期一致，自2024年6月启动本轮宽松周 期以来，欧洲央行已连续八次下调基准利率，市场普遍预期最终降息操作将在9月落地。这位立陶宛央行行长解释称，当前利率水平已接近理 论中性区间，既不刺激经济过热也不构成增长拖累。 谈及跨大西洋贸易关系，西姆库斯对欧美谈判前景持谨慎态度。随着7月9日关税豁免最后期限临近，双方谈判仍未取得实质性突破。他提醒政 策制定者不应忽视现有贸易壁垒的影响："目前欧洲输美商品平均面临10%的关税税率，这种保护主义措施对实体经济的冲击尚未完全显 现。"在能源价格波动与贸易摩擦叠加的背景下，欧洲央行官员认为，维持物价稳定与保障经济增长的平衡术正变得愈发复杂。 西姆库斯强 ...