以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 周五晚上A50期货和中概暴跌。 有人用特朗普的一句话来解释： 也许我们必须停止从中国大量进口。 也就是新一轮贸易战开打了。吓得资本市场瑟瑟发抖。 我并不认同这种观点，相反， 我认为特朗普又要给我们发钱了。 咱们好好分析一下。 一、特朗普总在间接逼东大秀肌肉 自打特朗普发动贸易战以来，我们会发现，每次他都会临阵退缩。 而东大则会秀一秀肌肉，让世界不断地感受到其强大到可怕的力量。 然后，就会有更多资金涌入A股和港股。 要不是央行有意通过释放银行间流动性对抗资金回流，A股恐怕还不止这点涨幅。 这一次也不例外，我们看看最近几天的消息。 1.更加严格的稀土管控； 2.大幅增加出口管控物项； 3.对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费； 4.对高通进行反垄断调查； 5.要求澳大利亚必和必拓用人民币结算铁 ...

汪毅、王小琳、王正洁（汪毅长城证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 摘要 2025年9月15日-9月19日，A股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块表现相 对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息25bp靴子落地后 选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看，我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市场强势的科 技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行之中。 热点一：美联储9月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入9月以来，在美联储公布9月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期，以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9月17日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储2025年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市涨幅过快过 高，短期内部分资金趁着降息25bp利好的兑现而选择了获利了结。 9月美联储会议整体基调偏中性，释放了"预防 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a day of fluctuations with all three major indices closing down: Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.7%, and ChiNext Index decreased by 4.55% [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 137.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Market Trends - The article discusses the "slow bull" market trend, suggesting that investors should trust the trend while being cautious about market corrections [4][5] - A pattern observed in the A-share market indicates that when the index rises significantly, it often leads to a necessary pullback [6][8] Sector Performance - Sectors such as gas and coal saw gains, while semiconductor, battery, and precious metals sectors faced significant declines [3] - Notably, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell below multiple moving averages, indicating weakness in technology stocks [10] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the technology sector experienced substantial declines, with companies like SMIC down by 7.89% and CATL down by 6.82% [13] - The article highlights that the adjustment in stock margin rates for several popular stocks has contributed to the market's volatility [14] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to see strong demand in emerging fields such as AI and robotics, with predictions of the global robotics market exceeding $400 billion by 2029 [18] - Analysts suggest that the current low volatility in market indices may allow for continued upward momentum, particularly in sectors supported by government policies [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to gradually trend upwards, indicating a slow bull market supported by various factors [1][2] - The "anti-involution" trend this year emphasizes high-quality development and a focus on technology rather than price wars [1][2] - The market has shown a gradual improvement in profitability, with strong performance in certain industries and the discovery of value sectors [1] Group 2 - From a technical and capital perspective, the market appears robust, with wealth transfer among residents indicating stability [1] - Policy support is facilitating industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, allowing excellent companies to receive more funding [1][2] - The best performers in the past year have been leading companies, which have benefited from favorable capital market policies, enhancing their premium and driving industry growth [1] Group 3 - The capital market's role in servicing and activating the real economy is being emphasized, with strong policy support for market development [2] - Despite the ongoing impact of real estate on the economy, artificial intelligence is progressively driving structural improvements across various sectors [2] - A+H listings are on the rise, reflecting the country's openness to international capital and enhancing the international image of the capital market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to gradually trend upwards, indicating a slow bull market supported by various factors, including a focus on high-quality development and technology rather than price wars [1][2] - The current market performance reflects a strong technical and capital foundation, with wealth transfer among residents contributing to market stability [1] - Policy support is facilitating industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, allowing excellent companies to receive more funding and better market pricing [1][2] Group 2 - The analysis of future market trends includes considerations of the fundamental, policy, technical, and capital aspects, with a focus on the positive impact of artificial intelligence across various sectors [2] - The A+H listing trend since 2025 represents China's economic openness to international capital, helping outstanding companies secure better funding and showcasing the internationalization of the capital market [2] - The concept of "anti-involution" has emerged as a key term in the Chinese economy since 2025, promoting a shift towards high-quality development and technology-centric approaches [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant changes over the past two decades, with each bull market driven by a combination of policy incentives and capital influx, leading to the emergence of the Shenzhen 100 Index as a key tool for capturing current market opportunities [1][2]. Historical Bull Market Review - The core themes of past bull markets in the A-share market have been "policy guidance" and "capital support," with the Shenzhen 100 Index consistently aligning with the main opportunities of each bull market [2]. - The bull market initiated by the 2005 currency reform saw blue-chip stocks in finance and real estate leading the charge, with the Shenzhen 100 Index benefiting from policy and economic expansion [3]. - The 2008 "four trillion" stimulus plan led to a rise in both cyclical and growth stocks, with the Shenzhen 100 Index including leaders from both sectors, showcasing its ability to cover multiple sectors [3]. - In 2014, financial innovation policies shifted focus to technology and consumer stocks, with the Shenzhen 100 Index reflecting strong performance due to its inclusion of electronic and consumer leaders [4]. - The 2019 liquidity easing spurred a growth wave in semiconductor and renewable energy sectors, with the Shenzhen 100 Index leading in high-growth environments [4]. Current Slow Bull Market - The current "slow bull" market is characterized by "long-term policies" and "gradual capital entry," highlighting the unique advantages of the Shenzhen 100 Index [5]. - The "924" policy emphasizes improving the quality of listed companies and optimizing market ecology, marking a shift from previous single-stimulus policies to a focus on sustainable growth [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index, comprising large-cap, liquid, and profitable core assets, aligns well with the policy's support for high-quality listed companies, making it a direct beneficiary of policy incentives [5]. - Since June, while individual investor account openings have been relatively flat compared to last year's surge, institutional account openings have significantly increased, aided by a recovery in private fund issuance [5][6]. Capital Dynamics - The current market shows a trend of "retail funds waiting to enter" while "institutional funds continue to allocate," indicating ample room for future retail inflows [8]. - Institutional funds are increasingly favoring "low volatility, high certainty" assets, with the Shenzhen 100 Index covering quality targets across various sectors, appealing to both retail and institutional investors [8]. - The financing balance has rapidly approached 2.1 trillion, nearing 2015 highs, but the average balance per account has lagged, indicating that current leverage is primarily driven by active market participants rather than new retail investors [8][9]. Investment Strategy - The Shenzhen 100 Index serves as a core allocation strategy to capture policy-driven growth sectors, including renewable energy, semiconductors, and consumer recovery, allowing investors to easily access multiple growth narratives [11]. - The "slow bull" market favors value over speculation, with funds leaning towards core assets supported by performance. Historical trends show that companies with stable return on equity (ROE) and sustainable profit growth tend to outperform [12]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index, with its favorable industry structure and reasonable valuations, is positioned as a high-quality choice for index-based investments, exemplified by the E Fund Shenzhen 100 ETF, which has a leading scale of 7.736 billion [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend supported by policy initiatives, technological advancements, and continuous capital inflow, with a positive outlook for the fourth quarter [2][3][4]. Policy Support - October is identified as a critical period for policy layout, with expectations for clearer signals and new incentives for the capital market, including potential interest rate cuts to limit downside risks [2][3]. Technological Advancements - The domestic AI industry is progressing, with the overseas AI trend also on the rise, which is expected to rekindle interest in A-share structures [3][4]. - The AI computing and semiconductor sectors remain the focus of institutional investors, with significant recommendations for stocks in these areas [4][5]. Capital Inflow - Foreign capital saw a net inflow of $4.6 billion into the Chinese stock market in September, marking the highest monthly inflow since November 2024, with a particular focus on technology growth sectors like semiconductors [3][4]. - Domestic capital is also increasing, with new fund issuance rebounding and long-term funds accelerating their market entry, supported by a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan tool [3][4]. Investment Focus - The technology growth sectors, including AI computing, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highly favored by institutions, with electronic stocks being the most recommended [4][5]. - Specific stocks such as Industrial Fulian and Zhaoyi Innovation are highlighted for their growth potential in the AI and semiconductor fields, respectively [5][6]. - WuXi AppTec is noted for its strong international competitiveness and solid market position, making it a preferred long-term investment choice [5][6].

机构观点： 9月30日消息，三大指数小幅高开，金属锌涨幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3869.70点，涨0.19%；深成指报13504.65点， 涨0.19%；创指报3239.33点，涨0.04%。 中信证券认为，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户，高净值人群及企业客户等更为长期理智的资金入市 热情更高。因此，很难出现持续强烈的情绪驱动，应继续聚焦核心产业趋势，关注估值与成长匹配。 财信证券认为，周一，A股市场历经前一日较为充分的调整后，当日三大指数全线上涨，题材板块多点开花，其中大金融 方向午后拉升，新能源方向走强，有色金属板块活跃，而教育、猪肉、煤炭等板块表现靠后。中期来看，在"反内卷"政策、居 民储蓄入市、外资持续流入等支撑下，本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，后续市场在经历月度级别的震荡整理并充分换手后，第 四季度A股指数仍存在继续走强的基础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma of whether to hold stocks or cash during holidays, emphasizing that there is no standard answer and it varies by individual circumstances [1]. Market Performance - A-shares have experienced a strong rebound over the past year, leading to a rare slow bull market, with the ChiNext Index rising over 70% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index nearly doubling [1]. - Major indices' dynamic price-to-earnings ratios are generally around the historical 50th percentile, significantly lower than the over 80% position of U.S. stocks, indicating that Chinese assets are not yet considered expensive [1]. Investment Decision Criteria - The article outlines scenarios for selling decisions: achieving expected returns, personal financial needs, deterioration of fundamental support for investment logic, and prices running too fast, leading to valuation bubbles [1]. Valuation Insights - Valuation in the market is differentiated, with some sectors at high valuations while most remain low [1].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article emphasizes the importance of the central bank's repeated commitment to maintaining capital market stability, particularly in the context of the current market conditions, which suggests potential for continued monetary easing and a prolonged bull market [4][8][11]. Group 1: Central Bank's Statements - The central bank has reiterated its stance on utilizing securities, funds, and insurance companies for stock repurchases and increased loans, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the capital market [4][9]. - This is the third time this year that the central bank has made such a statement, highlighting its significance in the current market context [6][5]. - The current market level, with the index around 3800 points, suggests that the government does not view this position as overly high, signaling a more positive outlook for future market support [8][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article argues that the recent market stagnation is a necessary correction following a rapid increase in the index, which is seen as a strategy to allow for a more sustainable upward trend [15][16]. - A slow bull market is preferred to prevent quick profit-taking by major funds, which could lead to a short-lived market rally [17][20]. - The government aims to cultivate patient capital, encouraging a gradual market rise rather than a rapid surge, which would benefit ordinary investors by providing them with more time to enter the market [18][19][20]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that many investors are looking for ways to participate in the current market rally but are uncertain about which sectors or assets to focus on [22]. - A live course is being offered to help investors identify current opportunities and understand market dynamics, which includes insights on asset allocation and investment strategies [23][26][28].