Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar has strengthened against the US Dollar, surpassing the 30 mark, reaching its highest level since May 5 [1] - The Philippine Peso has risen to its highest level against the US Dollar since August 2023, increasing by 0.1% to 55.20 [1] - The US Dollar Index continues its downward trend, decreasing by approximately 0.2% to 98.91 [1]

【市场分析：美元中期承压，人民币汇率波动区间有望企稳】近期美元指数震荡回落，主因是美国财政 与信用风险重新定价。穆迪下调美国主权评级，三大评级机构对美债评级均低于 3A，加上国会推进大 规模减税与扩张性财政法案，联邦债务预期抬升，引发"卖美国"交易升温。30 年期美债收益率突破 5.1%，短端利率平稳，市场对长期财政可持续性担忧升温，衍生品市场看空情绪创历史新高。 4 月银 行结售汇逆差小幅扩大，企业结汇与售汇规模增长，外汇交易活跃度上升。4 月货物贸易顺差收窄，跨 境资金净流入649 亿美元，出口有韧性但面临不确定性。资本项方面，证券投资项下涉外收付款波动， 人民币债券托管量回升，外资配置意愿改善。4 月社零和工业增加值同比增长，5 月 LPR 下调释放托底 信号，人民币得到阶段性支撑。 从基本面看，5 月美国 PMI 初值高于预期，穆迪下调评级削弱美元信 心，中国跨境资金净流入，货物贸易顺差稳固。美债收益率因财政风险上行，中国 LPR 下调压低短端 利率，短期内美中利差有走阔趋势。美方关税政策反复，评级下调叠加政策不确定，美元承压凸显人民 币相对稳定性。 欧元方面，欧盟发展预期乏力，美关税政策增强欧元资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the reassessment of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the anticipated increase in federal debt due to large-scale tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1% due to rising fiscal risks [1] - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased corporate foreign exchange transactions indicating heightened trading activity [1] - The US PMI preliminary reading for May exceeded expectations, although Moody's downgrade has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: China Economic Indicators - China's cross-border capital inflow remains strong, with a stable goods trade surplus [1] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The volume of foreign capital in Chinese bond custody has rebounded, indicating improved foreign investment sentiment [1] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for April was reported at 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The preliminary composite PMI for May was recorded at 49.5, with the services PMI at 48.9, indicating a contraction in the services sector [1] - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecasts for the next two years [1] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the May PMI data showing a slight recovery but still below the neutral line [1] - The services and composite PMIs in Japan have declined [1] - Japan's April exports grew by 2% year-on-year, while the CPI for April was reported at 3.6% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The US dollar is expected to maintain a weak position in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The Japanese yen shows short-term momentum [1] - The decline in US credit is unexpectedly strengthening the euro, with attention on the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations [1]

日本最高外汇事务官员三村淳：美日两国都认为汇率的突然波动是不可取的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The results of the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction have influenced market movements, with gold prices maintaining a 0.7% increase and the U.S. dollar showing a decline against the yen and Swiss franc [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold prices stabilized around $3,315, reflecting a 0.7% increase following the auction results [1] - The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate experienced a decline of approximately 0.7%, reaching 143.57 yen, with a low of 143.29 yen recorded [1] - The U.S. dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate saw a reduced decline of 0.48%, trading at 0.8242, with a previous low of 0.8230 and a day low of 0.8210 [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to decline, currently at 145.2130, down 0.28%, influenced by a weaker dollar index due to poor economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, with slightly over half anticipating at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year [1][2] - The survey, conducted from May 7 to 13 among 62 economists, reflects the Bank of Japan policymakers' view that while U.S. tariffs have disrupted markets, they have not completely derailed efforts to gradually tighten monetary policy [1] Group 2 - 95% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at the June policy meeting, with 67% predicting the benchmark rate will remain at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [2] - The implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from a low of 9.5% to 11.3%, indicating increased demand for downside protection against the dollar, particularly beyond the three-month period following the U.S.-China tariff pause [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if the USD/JPY breaks below the psychological level of 145.00, it could lead to a decline towards the 144.55 area, with further support at approximately 144.30, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in navigating the fluctuations of the dollar index, likening it to a dynamic ECG that reveals hidden signals in the market [1] - It highlights the effectiveness of trend lines and moving averages in predicting currency movements, particularly during significant market events like the European energy crisis [3] - The article discusses the value of combining technical indicators to enhance predictive capabilities, especially when aligned with fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events [5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The dollar index's K-line chart serves as a crucial tool for traders to identify key resistance levels and predict strong market trends [1] - The formation of higher peaks and troughs in the dollar index indicates the establishment of an upward channel, particularly noted during the 2022 European energy crisis [3] - The combination of technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, provides insights into market momentum and trend strength, with specific examples from the dollar/yen exchange rate [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historical price levels often self-validate, as seen when the dollar/euro exchange rate rebounded after hitting a support level [3] - The emergence of specific price patterns, like the head and shoulders bottom, signals potential trend reversals, while prolonged consolidation phases can lead to significant price movements [3] - Market sentiment, indicated by the VIX index, can create trading opportunities when it inversely correlates with the dollar index [3] Group 3: Investment Tools - Doo Financial offers a multi-dimensional analysis framework and real-time monitoring systems to help investors navigate the complexities of the market [5] - The integration of technical signals with fundamental developments is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing environment [5]

日本央行副行长内田真一：需要密切关注经济前景是否能够实现。 若经济前景实现，将会加息。 不确定性非常高。 汇率的快速波动增加了前景展望的不确定性。 汇率带来的影响因经济实体而异。 ...

周一（5月12日），韩元兑美元最终跌1.57%，报1420.07韩元，北京时间15:00过后出现一波急剧下挫的 行情。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in Geneva resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, with U.S. tariffs decreasing from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%, at least for the next 90 days [1][2] Tariff Changes - U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are currently at 30%, which includes a 20% "fentanyl tax" imposed by the Trump administration due to concerns over drug trafficking [1] - The negotiations led to the temporary cancellation of 24% of the tariffs, which was better than expected [2] Trade Balance and Impact - China's trade surplus with the U.S. is significant, with one-third of its surplus in 2024 expected to come from the U.S. market [2] - Even with equal tax rates, China is at a disadvantage due to its larger export volume compared to the U.S. [2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2% and A50 futures increased by 1%, indicating a positive market reaction [2] - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 1.3 trillion, with a median increase of 1% across various sectors [3] Sector Performance - The military sector experienced a notable increase of 4.8%, possibly due to expectations of increased international sales [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector faced significant declines, with stock prices dropping between 30% to 80% due to proposed price controls by the Trump administration [4][6] Currency and Commodity Movements - The Chinese yuan remained stable around 7.2, with no significant fluctuations observed [2] - Oil prices increased by 3% due to anticipated demand from improved trade relations, while gold prices fell by 3% as the urgency for gold diminished [3]