1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper is expected to continue its volatile pattern for some time, with the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton being closely watched. Favorable factors for bulls include a weak US dollar, inventory reduction, low inventory levels, tight domestic spot supply, and uncertainty over potential tariff hikes in the US 232 investigation. Key bearish factors are the US government's inconsistent tariff stance and the resulting uncertainty in the global economic outlook [1]. - Aluminum is undergoing a weak adjustment. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, leading to increased pressure on spot inventory. The reduction in bauxite price support has caused alumina prices to adjust based on cost. Aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but the speed of turnover and inventory reduction has slowed down. The price of aluminum alloy may fluctuate around the Baotai price in the short - term [1][2]. - Nickel is expected to remain range - bound. Although the cost of raw materials is firm and the fundamentals of primary nickel are improving, upward movement is restricted by weak downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper fell 0.45% to $9,725/ton, and SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.13% to 79,030 yuan/ton. Domestic spot imports are in a continuous loss. In May, US consumers' inflation expectations declined for the first time since 2024, and consumer confidence improved. China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. LME copper inventory decreased to 120,400 tons, Comex copper inventory increased to 173,215 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 33,746 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts increased to 804 tons. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand orders are gradually slowing down [1]. Aluminum - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract AD2511 closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 4.49%. Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AO2509 closing at 2,888 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Shanghai aluminum also showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AL2507 closing at 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,262 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium was 70 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and inventory pressure is increasing. The reduction in bauxite price support has led to an adjustment in alumina prices based on cost. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the arrival of aluminum ingots has decreased, but the speed of inventory reduction has slowed down [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,330/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 121,360 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased to 198,126 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased to 21,041 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices are firm, and domestic nickel - iron transaction prices show a slight rebound. In the stainless - steel sector, raw material prices are stable, and inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Production cuts in China and Indonesia in June will gradually ease the overall oversupply situation, but in the medium - term, it will still be constrained by weak terminal demand. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is little new demand in June. In June, the supply of primary nickel continued to decline month - on - month, and domestic weekly inventory decreased [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 119 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also increased. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,672 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) remained unchanged [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the prices of recycled lead products also rose. The price of lead concentrate at the factory increased by 100 yuan/ton in some areas. - Inventory: LME lead inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened. The price of some aluminum alloy products decreased, and the processing fee of some downstream aluminum products increased. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the social inventory of alumina increased by 4.1 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some stainless - steel products also declined. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of new - energy nickel products decreased. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 966 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 151 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel decreased by 2,178 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The main settlement price of zinc decreased by 1.2%, and the prices of spot zinc and zinc alloy products dropped. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons, SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main settlement price of tin increased by 0.3%, and the spot price and the price of tin concentrate rose. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 735 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2025. These charts visually display the historical trends of relevant data [7][8][13][20][26][32][39]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won multiple industry awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a focus on lithium and nickel research [47].

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, driven by signs of easing in the US-China trade war[11] - The Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.0%, while the Russell 2000 saw a rise of 3.2%[11] - The trade war has shown signs of thawing, with a meeting between US and Chinese officials being viewed as a significant step towards negotiations[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, marking the first increase since November of the previous year[20] - The April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[25] - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, indicating a rise in joblessness despite a modest increase in non-farm payrolls[35] Group 3: Market Risks - There is a persistent trend of de-dollarization in global liquidity, as investors show reduced confidence in US dollar assets[16] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month[41] - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) has been revised downwards by approximately 4.0% in April and May, reflecting concerns over inflation and tariffs[46]

Group 1 - The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, the highest level in eight months, indicating potential job market weakness due to trade policy uncertainties [1][3] - Many companies, including Procter & Gamble, Dow, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Microsoft, and Meta, have announced significant layoffs, with Procter & Gamble planning to cut 7,000 jobs, approximately 15% of its non-production workforce [2] - The U.S. private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the expected 115,000, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2023, reflecting a slowdown in hiring [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.3% for the third consecutive time, with concerns about rising unemployment and inflation complicating its dual mandate [1] - Economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies has led to decreased employer hiring intentions, contributing to a softening labor market [3][4] - Reports indicate that states like Kentucky and Tennessee have seen a notable increase in unemployment claims, potentially linked to layoffs in the automotive sector due to import tariffs [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积上涨，黑色系全面飘红 ——中信期货晨报20250605 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 | 品种 | | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 3842.4 0.46% | | 0.52% | 0.52% | -0.04% | -2.00% | 贵金属 | 航运 集运欧线 2199.1 | | 4.71% | 5.97% | 5.97% | 4 ...

澳大利亚4月零售销售额环比意外下降0.1%，远低于市场预期的增长0.3%，结束连续三个月增长态势。 数据显示，当月零售总额达372亿澳元（239.1亿美元），同比增速放缓至3.8%。澳大利亚统计局指出， 异常温暖天气延缓冬装采购，服装零售下降明显。百货商店因缺乏促销活动表现疲软，仅食品杂货和餐 饮消费因昆士兰洪水后补偿性支出有所回升。尽管通胀降温且利率下调，消费疲软态势持续。零售销售 约占家庭消费35%，其低迷预示二季度经济开局乏力。去年消费对经济增长几无贡献，创近衰退水平纪 录。这促使澳洲联储5月降息25个基点至3.85%，市场预计年内还将至少降息三次至3.10%。但2月首次 降息效果有限，一季度零售量基本持平。联储已下调今年消费预期，但仍寄望于减税、通胀放缓及借贷 成本下降的组合效应。近期特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡进一步抑制消费者信心，4月信心指数骤 跌。 周二（6月3日）亚市早盘，澳元/美元下跌，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:31分，澳元/美元报 价0.6465，下跌0.38%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6489。澳大利亚4月零售意外下滑消费者紧缩开支 强化降息预期。 在0.6365- ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国关税损害出口商的利润，可能会对家庭和企业产生更广泛的影响，例 如削弱消费者信心。 ...

Group 1 - The Taiwan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.1 percentage points to 51% in May, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion compared to April [1] - The future outlook index for May is at 40.9%, marking the second consecutive month of contraction [1] - Among the five components of the PMI, new orders and employment remain in contraction, while production activity has shifted to expansion [1] Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, three industries—electronics and optics, electrical and mechanical equipment, and chemicals and biotechnology—are experiencing expansion, while transportation, basic raw materials, and food and textiles are still in contraction [1] - The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (NMI) rose by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9% in May, marking three consecutive months of expansion [1] - Factors such as conservative business outlook, stock market corrections, and low consumer confidence are impacting economic trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for May remained stable compared to April, ending a four-month decline, influenced by temporary tariff suspensions that boosted optimism [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index for May was roughly flat compared to April, marking the end of a four-month downward trend [1] - Initial data in early May indicated a decline in confidence, but a recovery was observed in the latter half of the month due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs [1] - Consumers showed improved expectations regarding the business environment after mid-May, likely a direct result of adjustments in trade policy [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - Despite the positive changes in consumer confidence, overall income stagnation led to a decrease in satisfaction with personal financial situations, offsetting the optimistic trends [1] - Generally, consumers do not perceive the economic outlook as worse than the previous month, yet they maintain a high level of concern about the future [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $400.4 million for Q4 2025, a decline of 11.7% compared to the prior year [4][14] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $47.1 million, representing 11.8% of net sales, down from 12.1% in the same period last year [7][17] - Adjusted net income was $24 million or $1.61 per diluted share, compared to $28.2 million or $1.78 per diluted share last year [17] - The gross profit margin decreased by 160 basis points to 17% of net sales from 18.6% in the prior year [15] - For the full fiscal year, net sales were $1.7 billion, a decrease of 7.5% year-over-year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Remodel net sales decreased by 10.4% in Q4, with home centers and dealer distributors both declining by approximately 10-11% [14] - New construction net sales decreased by 13.4% for the quarter compared to last year [14] - The home center business saw a low single-digit negative comp, while the pro business reported a positive comp for the quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Existing home sales fell by 0.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4 million in April 2025, with a year-over-year decline of 2% [4] - The NAHB housing market index dropped to 34 in May, marking the lowest level since November 2023 [6] - Single-family housing starts experienced negative comps from January to April [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on three main pillars: growth, digital transformation, and platform design [10] - Key accomplishments include product innovation, capacity investments, and channel expansion despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company is enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and transitioning independent distributor customers to a new brand [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects demand trends to remain challenging, with net sales outlook ranging from low single-digit declines to low single-digit increases for fiscal year 2026 [9][21] - The company anticipates that as mortgage rates decline and consumer confidence increases, there will be a potential for higher ticket home projects [9] - Management highlighted the importance of removing uncertainty related to tariffs for future growth [50] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.17 million shares for $96.7 million during fiscal year 2025, representing about 7.5% of outstanding shares [20] - Free cash flow totaled $65.7 million for the fiscal year, down from $138.5 million in the prior year [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on full year guidance - Management indicated that the outlook was significantly influenced by tariffs, estimating a cost impact of approximately $20 million [27][28] Question: Improvement in gross margins - The improvement in gross margins was attributed to operational adjustments made in Q4 following a challenging Q3 [30][31] Question: Revenue guidance assumptions for end markets - The revenue guidance assumes a consistent recovery across both remodel and new construction markets, with expectations for better performance in the second half of fiscal year 2026 [37][38] Question: Cost considerations beyond tariffs - Management acknowledged potential commodity inflation and labor costs as additional factors impacting guidance [44] Question: Savings from facility closure - The closure of a components facility is expected to yield annual savings of $5-6 million in EBITDA [46]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of the Royal Bank of Canada anticipates that the Bank of Canada will continue to adopt a more dovish stance to boost consumer confidence and economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Royal Bank of Canada is projecting a shift in the Bank of Canada's monetary policy towards a more accommodative approach [1] - The expectation is that this dovish stance will positively impact consumer sentiment and stimulate economic activity [1]