市场回顾 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能持续降低。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 宏观数据分析 日本央行行长植田和男12月1日暗示本月晚些时候可能加息，这一表态释放了强烈的鹰派信号，日央行 将在12月18-19日举行货币政策会议，届时加息成为大概率事件。日本在"失去的30年"以来，一直维持 低利率甚至0利率状态，日元也因此成为国际货币套利交易中重要的组成部分。日本当前经济有复苏苗 头，工资持续上行。弱势的日元汇率带来了输入性通胀压力，日央行顺势开始试探加息收紧流动性。国 际市场在日央行表态后对潜在的流动性收紧进行了一定定价但幅度有限，且随着美股小非农不及预期、 美联储换届人选基本确定、特朗普账户支持美股等催化进一步被冲淡。市场的关注点集中于弱美元。后 续需观察日元汇率和日债收益率等指标走强的持续性，再行判断真正影响。 市场上周震荡反弹，资金面层面，市场量能偏低，多种技术指标偏弱，融资数据有好转。 短期观点 年底临近，机构资金活跃度低，市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a continuation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market [1] Market Environment - The overseas economy remains resilient with marginally easing liquidity, alongside rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating an improving external environment [1] - Domestically, the "dual easing" policy is expected to continue, leading to a likely weak recovery in the economy, while "anti-involution" policies are set to optimize industry supply and demand dynamics, positively impacting listed company performance [1] Investment Themes - The technology growth sector remains the core focus for the medium to long term, with the AI industry chain expected to shift from hardware to application, particularly in media, computing, and internet sectors [2] - Four specific investment lines are highlighted: 1. High dividend assets are seeing increased accumulation by institutional investors, with sectors like white goods, banking, and telecommunications showing promising dividend strategies [2] 2. The "anti-involution" trend is entering a phase driven by fundamentals, with significant performance improvement expected in coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries [2] 3. Domestic demand expansion focuses on "matching effects," with new consumption areas like health consumption and pet economy, alongside travel and aviation sectors, presenting opportunities [2] 4. In the resource sector, strategic minor metals and industrial metals are anticipated to follow gold in price recovery, benefiting from the upward trend in commodity prices [2] Outlook for 2026 - With policy support, improving internal and external environments, and structural optimization, the A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a focus on technology growth and advantageous niche sectors as the core logic for capturing market opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the convertible bond market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and upward movement in 2026, with equity markets experiencing a "slow bull" market, leading to continued activity in equity and balanced convertible bonds [5][8] - The supply-demand situation for convertible bonds in 2026 is projected to be tight, with new bonds being issued to meet corresponding allocation needs after some bonds are redeemed or mature [5][14] - Institutional investors' holdings of convertible bonds have increased, indicating strong demand for allocation in a market characterized by asset scarcity [5][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the domestic bond interest rates are expected to exhibit an "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a moderate impact on convertible bonds [47][48] - The report suggests that the funding side is likely to become the main driver of the stock market in 2026, with policies aimed at increasing the entry of long-term funds into the market [59][60] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds related to emerging pillar industries, future industries, and the construction of a new energy system, in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [61][62]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the mechanical industry is expected to experience stable growth by 2026, with mid-cap blue-chip companies benefiting from technological empowerment and domestic policy support [1][3][4] - The mechanical sector's stable growth reflects the enhancement of China's machinery manufacturing capabilities, supported by continuous development since 2025 [2][3] - Eight key sub-sectors are identified as having investment opportunities, including lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, forklift equipment, machinery for overseas markets, engineering machinery, coal machinery, and light industrial equipment [3][4] Group 2 - The robot manufacturing sector is anticipated to accelerate production in 2026, with market share becoming more differentiated among manufacturers, favoring those with higher manufacturing barriers and management capabilities [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to rise for companies involved in embodied intelligence, particularly those with strong cash flow and future growth potential [4]

华安证券指出，创业板50指数成分股主要集中于科技成长领域，其中AI产业链是核心驱动力。分 析师认为，算力需求爆发带动PCB、CPO等硬件环节量价齐升，国产算力替代加速推进；储能链受益AI 功耗提升，锂电材料及能源金属在供需改善下价格持续回升。此外，存储行业因高端产能转移及AI需 求激增进入长期景气周期，DRAM和NAND价格年内涨幅超50%。科技主线中，机器人、游戏、软件等 应用端随技术落地逐步释放业绩弹性，而工程机械等出口链品种在海外需求复苏下维持高增长。整体来 看，创业板50覆盖的科技成长板块盈利增速有望保持30%以上，高景气产业趋势与涨价逻辑形成双重支 撑。 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），该指数从创业板市场中选取日均 成交额较大的50只证券作为指数样本，重点反映高知名度、大市值规模及良好流动性的企业整体表现。 创业板50指数聚焦于科技成长领域，尤其覆盖电力设备及新能源、医药生物等新兴产业，具有突出的高 成长性和市场弹性特征。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced fluctuations but has shown a strong upward trend in technology growth sectors since the end of the previous correction on November 23, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - From November 24 to December 9, the ChiNext Index rose by 9.9%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 12.4%, while the Shanghai Composite Index only gained about 2% [1] - Analysts attribute this rally to advancements in industries such as optical modules, photovoltaics, and consumer electronics, as well as investors' early pricing in of the positive fundamentals for technology growth in the coming year [1] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Consensus among analysts indicates that the earnings growth rate for the ChiNext Index is expected to be around 30% next year, maintaining a significant gap compared to the earnings growth of value sectors [1] Group 3: Index Composition and Focus - The ChiNext Index consists of 100 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, focusing on strategic emerging industries, with upcoming adjustments including leaders in high-end manufacturing, new energy, and biomedicine [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index is selected from the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards, focusing on large-cap, liquid stocks in emerging industries, covering sectors such as semiconductors, new energy, and biomedicine [1] Group 4: ETF Information - The latest sizes of the ChiNext ETF (159915) and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF (159781) are approximately 100 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, respectively, making them the largest ETFs for their respective indices [1] - Both ETFs have the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year, which can help investors seize opportunities in the technology growth sector [1]

银河证券研报称，展望未来，12月即将召开的国内重要会议与美联储议息会议，有望为港股市场提供中 长期政策方向和短期流动性信号，配置方面，建议关注贵金属、内需消费、科技成长等板块。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、快手、 阿里巴巴、小米等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 消息面上，国家统计局数据显示，11月份CPI同比上涨0.7% 环比下降0.1%。1至11月平均，全国居民消 费价格与上年同期持平。此外，全国零售业创新发展大会12月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部相关负责 人表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业 转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量发展。 12月8日，Apple Store官方旗舰店在电商平台推出年末降价活动，iPhone 17 Pro及iPhone 17 Pro Max机型 降价300元，降价后两款机型售价分别为8699元起和9699元起。山西、上海、四川等部分地区可享国家 补贴，至高可省50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "more declines than gains, structural differentiation" characteristic, with the technology growth sector being the core due to strong performance certainty and high industry prosperity [5]. Market Performance - 1,305 companies saw an increase in their stock prices, with a rise and fall ratio of 54:12, indicating a selective market performance [5]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 9.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.57%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment and a concentration of funds in a few sectors [6]. Sector Analysis - The computing hardware sector had the highest trading volume, while the retail sector benefited from consumption stimulus policies, leading to a significant increase in trading volume [6]. - Traditional cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, coal, and brokerage firms collectively adjusted due to a lack of catalysts and capital outflows [5]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of 617.91 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow, indicating a defensive repositioning by institutions away from the electronic and computing sectors towards banks and public utilities [7]. - Retail investors displayed cautious optimism, focusing on sectors driven by policy catalysts such as commercial aerospace and consumer recovery [7]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors was recorded at 75.85%, indicating a relatively positive outlook despite the cautious market environment [8].

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to policy expectations from the "14th Five-Year Plan," with technology growth likely to continue outperforming in Q4 [1] - The main sectors attracting net inflows include PCB, LED, OLED, photovoltaic, and charging piles, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [1] - The domestic embodied intelligence sector has surpassed a total market value of 3 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential as capital accelerates for domestic new forces [3] Group 2 - The dairy market is stabilizing post-holidays, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, while deep processing and overseas markets show rapid growth potential [5] - The price of beef cattle is expected to experience upward pressure due to a projected decline in supply by over 10% since 2024, indicating a potential price rebound [5] - The global investment community is regaining confidence in AI, with storage chips being favored as a critical material, leading to anticipated price increases that may last until mid-next year [5] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to enter a "structural market second half" focused on high-quality development, with long-term funds likely to concentrate on industries with strategic support value [9] - The ability of the ChiNext index to stabilize above 3200 points will be crucial for determining whether new highs can be achieved by year-end, with ongoing positive sentiment in technology stocks [9] - Investors are advised to maintain a medium to high position structure, focusing on advanced manufacturing, technology hardware, green energy, and digital economy sectors driven by policy [9]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 01 12月8日，A股市场强势上涨。在个股普涨的同时，多只人工智能主题类ETF表现强势，领涨ETF市场。 02 受人工智能板块强势表现推动，多只"双创"主题类ETF涨幅居前，创科技ETF、科创创业50ETF基金、 双创50ETF、科创创业ETF嘉实等品种今天涨幅均超3%。 人工智能板块人气高涨 中国证券业协会第八次会员大会12月6日在北京举行。就"加快打造一流投资银行和投资机构，更好助推 资本市场高质量发展"，中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清表示，将着力强化分类监管、"扶优限劣"。对 优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率。 受消息面利好等因素推动，12月8日，A股市场高开高走，放量走强。在全市场个股普涨的同时，人工 智能板块强势攀升，多只人工智能主题类ETF表现强势，领涨ETF市场。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 今日涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159583.SZ | 通信设备ETF | 1.215 | 5.65% | | 159279.SZ | 创 ...