记者 张一诺 9月美联储降息，叠加国内8月份经济数据增速放缓，市场高度关注四季度货币政策变化。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪指出，本次例会，央行对货币政策目标（主要为通胀）的表述出现细微差别，从"保 持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"转变为"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，从"保持"转变为"促进"，表明 监管层对经济增长和物价处于合理水平的诉求更为强烈。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-8月份，中国CPI同比、环比均在低位运行。 央行9月26日晚间披露，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会于9月23日召开。本次例会强调货币政策措施 的执行和效应释放，未给出增量放松措施指引。分析师表示，目前货币政策处于观望状态，推进已出台政策落实落细仍 是重点，但这并不代表后期不会推出新的增量政策，后续货币政策仍将根据经济增长动能变化及物价走势等持续发力、 适时加力。 会后新闻通稿显示，本次会议对于货币政策的表述主要有三个方面的变化：货币政策目标、货币宽松具体实施以及结构 性货币政策工具。 最近两次例会主要内容对比 | 内容 | 2025年9月23日例会 | 2025年6月23日例会 | 变化 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The PBOC has increased macroeconomic regulation efforts this year, maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy while utilizing various tools to support the real economy [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of broad money (M2) and social financing remain between 8% and 9% [2]. - By the end of 2024, the ratios of social financing to GDP, M2 to GDP, and loans to GDP are projected to be 303%, 232%, and 190%, respectively, indicating a significant increase compared to 2017 [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The recent meeting highlighted the importance of effectively implementing existing monetary policies and ensuring their impact is fully realized [3]. - The PBOC's stance is to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which is crucial for the ongoing economic recovery and stability of financial markets [2]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The meeting underscored the need to effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4]. - Structural monetary policy tools have shown significant growth, with technology loans, green loans, and inclusive small micro loans growing faster than the overall loan growth [4]. - The PBOC is exploring new mechanisms to stabilize the capital market, including swap facilities and stock repurchase loans, to support market stability [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - The focus will be on enhancing the ability and willingness of financial institutions to support key sectors through structural monetary policy tools [5][6]. - There is an expectation for better integration of structural tools with the financial "five major articles" to provide precise support for critical areas such as technology and consumption [6]. - The meeting aims to align short-term stabilization efforts with long-term high-quality development goals through policy coordination and innovation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels, reflecting a stronger commitment to economic recovery amid complex external conditions and domestic challenges [2][4]. Economic Situation - The economic assessment has shifted from "showing a positive trend" in Q2 to "steady progress" in Q3, indicating improved risk expectations and confidence in the economic fundamentals [4]. - The previous mention of "many risk hazards" has been removed, focusing instead on "insufficient domestic demand" and "low price levels" as the main challenges [4]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy stance remains consistent with the July Politburo meeting, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [2][3]. - The focus has shifted from "implementing" to "ensuring the execution" of monetary policies, highlighting the importance of precise policy execution [4][6]. Structural Support - The scope of structural monetary policy tools has been expanded to include support for small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade, in addition to existing focuses on technological innovation and consumption [5]. - This adjustment is closely related to the current economic environment, particularly the potential impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. on Chinese exports [5]. Policy Coordination - Future monetary policy is expected to have more room for maneuver, with an emphasis on policy coordination and effective implementation based on domestic and international economic conditions [6][7]. - The market anticipates potential monetary easing measures, including a possible reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, to support economic growth and employment [7]. Structural Tool Optimization - Recommendations include increasing the limits of structural tools and lowering their interest rates to enhance attractiveness for financial institutions, thereby encouraging support for key sectors such as technology, green development, and small enterprises [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted a series of key policy signals, indicating a flexible adjustment of monetary policy amid low inflation and marginal improvements in macroeconomic indicators [1][3]. Economic Situation - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers. Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low inflation, China's economy is showing signs of stability and improvement [3][4]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to July [3][4]. Monetary Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on utilizing existing resources effectively rather than introducing new measures. This shift indicates confidence in the effectiveness of previously implemented policies [6][7]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, promoting economic stability and maintaining reasonable price levels through better coordination with fiscal policy [6][7]. Future Expectations - There is a possibility of new growth-stabilizing policies in the fourth quarter, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate consumption and investment [7][9]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be prioritized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [8][9]. Bond Market Insights - The meeting reiterated the importance of monitoring long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to 1.8%. The PBOC is cautious about large-scale government bond purchases, preferring to manage liquidity and utilize existing policy tools [9][10]. - The potential for resuming government bond purchases will depend on market conditions and external economic influences, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations and guiding interest rates downward [10][11].

意味着后续相较于货币政策增量，央行或更多关注存量工具的使用情况。 同时，在经济形势、货币政策操作、经济目标等方面的表述也存在一些微调。例如，从"保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"转变为"促进经济稳定增长 和物价处于合理水平"，从"保持"转变为"促进"，表明对经济增长和物价处于合理水平的诉求更为强烈。 在外部环境更趋复杂严峻、国内经济面临需求不足与物价低位运行挑战的背景下，本次例会在形势判断、政策基调及重点领域支持等方面的表述调整，既呼 应了当前经济运行特点，也为后续政策走向提供了清晰指引。 重在推进已出台政策落实落细 三季度例会在货币政策基调上与7月政治局会议的要求相同，均强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"。与上个季度例会内容相比，一些表述出现微调。 | | 二季度 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济形势 | 经济呈现向好态势,社会信 | 华: | | | 心持续提振，高质量发展扎 | 持: | | | 实推进，但仍面临国内需求 | 成: | | | 不足、物价持续低位运行、 | 足 | | | 风险隐患较多等困难和挑 | 成 | | | 成。 | | | 货币政策要求 | 实施好适度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focusing on a moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels amid a complex external environment [4][11]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC aims to enhance monetary policy regulation, increasing its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness to fully unleash policy effects [7]. - The strategy includes maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, thereby reducing the overall financing costs in society [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Coordination - The meeting emphasized strengthening the domestic economic cycle, balancing total supply and demand, and enhancing macro policy coordination to ensure continuity and stability [9]. - The focus is on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing expectations, and stimulating economic vitality to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to continue with a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions due to domestic and international conditions [11]. - Structural monetary policy tools are anticipated to continue supporting key areas such as technological innovation, green development, manufacturing upgrades, and small and micro enterprises [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy meeting indicates a shift towards maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, moving away from aggressive incremental policy implementations [1][6]. Economic Outlook - The meeting acknowledged a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth, increased trade barriers, and uncertain inflation trends, while noting that China's economy is progressing steadily despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][4]. Price Trends - The description of prices changed from "continuously low" to "low," reflecting recent positive signals in price data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after eight months of decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month but showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [4][6]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting emphasized the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies and enhancing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to support economic stability and reasonable price levels [5][13]. Structural Policy Tools - There is a new focus on using structural monetary policy tools to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a commitment to targeted financial support [10]. Long-term Interest Rates - The meeting continued to highlight the importance of monitoring long-term interest rates, with a consistent approach over the past seven quarters, reflecting ongoing concerns about the bond market dynamics [10][11]. Financial Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the importance of maintaining stability in the foreign exchange, capital, and real estate markets, with specific measures to enhance market resilience and prevent excessive fluctuations [13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of large banks in supporting the real economy and enhancing the capital strength of small and medium-sized banks to maintain financial market stability [1] Group 1: Financial Policy and Support - The meeting calls for effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] - There is a focus on financing support for key areas such as "two new" and "two heavy" sectors, utilizing securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and refinancing [1] Group 2: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises - The meeting highlights the need for financial services to support the development of the private economy and improve the coordination mechanism for financing small and micro enterprises [1] - Efforts will be made to address the financing bottlenecks faced by small and medium enterprises [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting stresses the importance of implementing financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, including revitalizing existing housing and land [1] - There is a call to improve the foundational financial systems for real estate and to help establish a new development model for the sector [1] Group 4: Financial Openness and Risk Management - The meeting advocates for advancing high-level financial openness and enhancing economic and financial management capabilities under open conditions [1] - There is a focus on improving risk prevention and control capabilities in the financial sector [1]

图为中国人民银行总行大楼。新华社发 中国人民银行9月26日发布消息称，将持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大的金融服务，充分发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用，进一步 打通中小微企业融资的堵点和卡点。 中国人民银行货币政策委员会近日召开2025年第三季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要思路。会议提出，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻 性、针对性、有效性，抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。 会议还研究了政策发力方向。会议指出，将有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持科技创新、提振消 费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态 化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。 此外，会议还提出，将着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度，巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地 产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发展新模式。（记者吴雨、任军） 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to support economic stability and growth, focusing on targeted measures for various sectors [2][4][6]. Economic Analysis - The PBOC acknowledges a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while noting a positive trend in domestic economic performance [4][5]. - The assessment of the domestic economy has shifted from "showing a good trend" to "steady progress," with challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels remaining [5][6]. Monetary Policy Recommendations - The PBOC suggests enhancing monetary policy regulation, improving its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, and ensuring the execution of various monetary policy measures [6][7]. - Recommendations include maintaining ample liquidity, guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [6][7]. Structural Policy Support - The PBOC plans to strengthen support for technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, expanding the focus beyond just technology and consumption [6][8]. - The meeting also emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in the capital market through various financial instruments and supporting the development of the private economy [7][8]. Real Estate Market - The PBOC aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, with a focus on revitalizing existing properties and land, while improving the foundational financial systems related to real estate [7][8].