摘要 核心观点：M2与M1增速差走阔源于财政"错位"，及居民对资本市场配置更趋稳定 2025年12月M2与M1增速剪刀差连续三月走阔，核心因政府债净融资"错位"及居民对资本市场配置稳定 性增强。 2024年11月大规模化债注流动性，2025年化债前置支撑上半年M1增长，年末M1乏力。M2年末 增速跳升的主因在于居民对资本市场配置的稳定性强化，这一特征具体表现为：2024年末非银存款曾大 幅流出，而2025年末非银存款变动已回归常态。 居民贷款表现偏弱，或与BCI企业招工前瞻指数持续低位、房地产价格波动相关。 12月居民贷款同比少 增4416亿元，已连续六月少增。2025年11月70城二手住宅价较6月跌3.1个百分点，12月百城二手住宅挂 牌均价较6月跌8.1个百分点，或加剧居民贷款审慎态。 企业中长贷同比增速时隔31个月反弹，新型政策性金融工具或持续撬动。 2025年12月企业中长贷新增 3300亿元，余额同比增速回升0.3个百分点至7.9%（2023年6月以来首次），改善或源于工具撬动作用显 现及2024年末隐性债务偿还形成的低基数。 政府债净融资年末"错位"是拖累社融首要因素。2025年12月政府债同比少 ...

其次，货币政策定向发力科技，优质科技企业将受到投资者青睐。根据央行最新表述，科技创新和技术 改造再贷款额度将增加，并扩大支持范围。科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿元增加至1.2万亿 元，并将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域。在去年的"十五五"规划建议稿中，科技自 立自强水平的大幅提高已经升级成为经济社会发展主要目标。科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度的扩大直 接增强企业加大研发、更新设备、吸引人才的意愿和能力，从而加快科技成果转化和技术迭代，对实现 高水平科技自立自强形成可持续的金融推力。在此背景下，拥有护城河式核心竞争力的科技企业，更容 易在产能扩张、与政策红利的共振下脱颖而出，成为市场主线。 第三，央行重申降准降息存在空间，股市短期震荡不改慢牛走向。在发布会上，央行表示"降准降息还 有一定空间"。金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均值为6.3%，降准还有空间。利率方面，外部美元处于 降息通道，不构成强约束，内部银行净息差已经出现企稳。1月中旬，股市出现震荡行情，部分投资者 在热门股回调的背景下出现迷茫的心理。九方金融研究所认为，中国股市在2026年仍将出现慢牛走势， 货币政策宽松是重要的催化剂之一 ...

2026 年 1 月 16 日 行业研究 M2 增速升至 8.5%，财政货币一揽子政策蓄势待发 ——2025 年 12 月份金融数据及财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 信贷投放较早呈现年末收官特征——2025 年 11 月 份金融数据点评 贷款增长再现"小月"，社融与货币降速——2025 年 10 月份金融数据点评 事件： 贷款熨平波动，货币持续活化——2025 年 9 月份 金融数据点评 社融遇拐点，货币见活化——2025 年 8 月份金融 数据点评 1、2026 年 1 月 15 日，央行公布了 12 月金融统计数据，数据显示： （3）新增人民币贷款 9100 亿，同比少增 800 亿，增速 6.4%，同 11 月末持平； 信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速 —— ...

Macro Economic Group - In December, M2 growth was 8.5%, exceeding Wind's expectation of 7.9% and up from 8.0% in November. M1 growth was 3.8%, matching expectations but down from 4.9% in November, indicating a slowdown in money velocity [4] - The total social financing (TSF) in December grew by 8.3%, slightly above the expected 8.2% but down from 8.5% in November. The TSF increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 1.82 trillion yuan but down from 2.49 trillion yuan year-on-year [4] - Bank credit in December increased by 910 billion yuan, exceeding the expected 679.4 billion yuan and up from 390 billion yuan in the previous month. However, it was down 800 billion yuan year-on-year [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Siyi Electric (002028.SZ) reported a revenue of 21.2 billion yuan for 2025, a 37.2% year-on-year increase, with Q4 revenue reaching 7.38 billion yuan, up 46.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.16 billion yuan, a 54.4% increase, exceeding market expectations [12] - Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ) forecasted a net profit of 980 million to 1.02 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 45% to 50.8%. The Q4 net profit was estimated at 280 million yuan, a 50.4% increase, driven by strong demand for server PCB boards [13] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction resulted in 8.4GW of capacity, exceeding expectations and marking a historical high. This sets the stage for significant supply chain orders in the coming years, with a peak delivery expected between 2028 and 2030 [15] - The State Grid has confirmed a total investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on accelerating ultra-high voltage construction and enhancing supply chain capabilities [16] Consumer Group - The Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasized the need for financial support to boost consumption and investment, particularly in sectors like real estate, healthcare, and small businesses. This is expected to benefit consumer sectors such as automobiles and home appliances [18] - Juzhi Bio's second collagen medical device has been approved, enhancing the focus on the collagen market, which is gaining traction in aesthetic and skin repair applications [19] - Liufeng Group reported a same-store sales growth of 15% for Q4 2025, driven by increased customer flow and product pricing strategies, indicating strong growth momentum [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy support is crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on the recovery of banking sector sentiment in Q1 [4][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated the feasibility of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions due to high current levels of RRR and a stable exchange rate environment [4] - Structural monetary policy tools have been introduced to lower the overall financing costs in society, with specific interest rate cuts for various loans [5] - The resumption of government bond trading operations by the PBOC is aimed at enhancing the monetary policy toolkit and ensuring smooth issuance of government bonds [6] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Economic Recovery - The PBOC's recent measures include a potential for 1-2 interest rate cuts within the year, with a possible reduction of 10 basis points each time, with the earliest cut expected in Q1 [4] - The report notes that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown positive growth, indicating effective policy collaboration [7] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved economic conditions, with a significant increase in credit issuance anticipated in January, potentially the highest in history [7] - Banks with strong wealth management capabilities and those in active financial environments are likely to gain more from the supportive policy landscape [7] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks such as CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, and others, which are expected to benefit from the current economic recovery and policy support [7]

央行和外管局在最新的新闻发布会上提出了哪些关键政策变化？ 在最新的新闻发布会上，央行和外管局提出了几项关键政策变化。首先，货币 政策方面，央行强调要保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融合理增长，并推 出了 8 项增量政策，其中 6 项为结构性工具。这些措施包括统一下调各类结构 性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，并增加 9,000 亿结构性货币政策工具额 度，其中支农支小再贷款额度提高 5,000 亿，科技创新和技术改造贷款额度增 加 4,000 亿。此外，还优化了智能智享再贷款和再贴现的使用范围，将支持对 象扩大到中型民营企业，并拓展碳减排、服务消费及养老再贷款工具的覆盖范 围。 央行发布会关键细节 20260115 摘要 央行倾向于稳健的货币政策，通过结构性工具而非总量宽松来支持经济， 如统一下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，并增加 9,000 亿 结构性货币政策工具额度，包括支农支小再贷款和科技创新贷款。 尽管市场预期不高，但 2026 年降准降息的可能性仍然存在，特别是三 季度经济增长压力较大时，人民币升值空间和银行息差压力缓解为货币 宽松提供了窗口。 预计 2026 年人民币汇率将保 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the state of social financing and credit in December, highlighting trends in corporate and household loans, as well as deposit movements in the banking sector [1][2][3][4]. Key Points on Social Financing and Credit - In December, corporate loans increased by 580 billion year-on-year, driven by policy financial tools, a low base from the previous year, and year-end lending boosts from banks [1][2]. - However, household loans decreased for the third consecutive month, with a reduction exceeding 400 billion, indicating weak demand and a contraction in leverage [3]. - The overall social financing growth rate was 8.3%, with loan growth at 6.3%, both showing slight month-on-month declines [2]. - Corporate medium to long-term loans saw a significant year-on-year increase of 390 billion, attributed to policy support and the low base effect from December of the previous year [2]. Insights on Household Loans - The decline in household loans includes a net decrease of 1,000 billion in short-term loans and a 2,900 billion decrease in medium to long-term loans [3]. - The expectation is for M1 growth to gradually recover in January 2026, potentially rising from 3.8% to a range of 4-5% due to low base effects and increased market activity [3][8]. Deposit Trends - December saw a rise in deposit growth from 7.7% to 8.8%, with no significant outflow of household deposits [5]. - M1 growth decreased to 3.8%, indicating that while the market is active, there is no significant change in household risk appetite [5]. - Corporate deposits decreased by 600 billion year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.8 trillion, influenced by a self-discipline agreement on demand deposits [7]. Future Market Expectations - The outlook for January and beyond suggests that banks remain active in lending, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, but retail demand may continue to lag [4]. - There is a need to monitor the impact of structural monetary policy tools and interest rate adjustments on credit growth throughout the year [11]. Central Bank Policies - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, aimed at alleviating pressure on bank interest margins [9][10]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to expand, supporting financing for private enterprises, which may help alleviate financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises [10]. - A comprehensive interest rate cut is anticipated between the end of Q1 and Q2, with an expected annual reduction of 10-20 basis points [10]. Additional Observations - Despite approximately 6 trillion in excess savings, the potential for large-scale market entry remains uncertain and will depend on market wealth effects and policy guidance [6]. - The current phase of household funds entering the market is still in its early stages, requiring ongoing observation of market dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing monetary and financial policies to support high-quality development of the real economy, with significant results observed in financing and loan growth [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - By the end of December 2025, the social financing scale increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the RMB loan balance reached 272 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained ample liquidity and utilized various monetary policy tools to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [1][4]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Market Stability - The foreign exchange market has remained stable, with the RMB appreciating by 4.4% against the US dollar in 2025 [5]. - The bond market has developed healthily, and capital market confidence has been effectively boosted [5]. Group 3: Structural Policy Optimization - The PBOC has increased support for key areas such as technology innovation and consumption, with loans in these sectors growing at double-digit rates [6][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in interest rates for various policy tools and an increase in loan quotas for agriculture and small enterprises [7][8]. - A new loan program specifically for private enterprises has been established, with a quota of 1 trillion yuan to support medium-sized private companies [7][11]. Group 4: Cross-Border Financing and Investment - In 2025, cross-border income and expenditure totaled 15.6 trillion USD, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from 2024 [9]. - The foreign exchange management has improved, supporting stable foreign trade and deepening cross-border investment reforms [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of financial services for private enterprises and improve consumer financing support in 2026 [8][11]. - The focus will remain on optimizing the structure of monetary policies to ensure financial resources are directed efficiently towards key sectors and vulnerable areas [11].

Core Insights - The overall financing cost in society has decreased significantly, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, down 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policy tools to support the real economy, resulting in a notable increase in social financing scale and a stable growth in loans [2][3] - The PBOC plans to continue a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, with potential for further rate cuts and liquidity support [4][10] Financing Cost Reduction - Since the second half of 2018, the PBOC has lowered policy rates 10 times, leading to a steady decline in financing costs [1][3] - By December 2025, the weighted average interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans were both around 3.1% [1][3] Monetary Policy Tools - In 2025, the PBOC increased the quota for agricultural and small enterprise re-loans by 500 billion yuan and raised the quota for technology innovation and transformation re-loans from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [1][6] - The PBOC is optimizing structural monetary policy tools by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and enhancing support for key sectors [5][6] Financial Market Stability - The foreign exchange market has remained stable, with the RMB appreciating by 4.4% against the USD in 2025 [4][8] - The PBOC has implemented measures to maintain balance in the foreign exchange market and enhance risk management for enterprises [8][9] Support for Key Sectors - Loans for technology, green initiatives, inclusive finance, and digital economy sectors have shown double-digit growth, significantly outpacing overall loan growth [3][10] - The PBOC aims to enhance financial support for consumption and the health industry, with a focus on improving the effectiveness of financial services [7][10] Direct Investment and Cross-Border Financing - In 2025, cross-border income and expenditure totaled 15.6 trillion USD, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from 2024 [8][9] - The PBOC is promoting high-level institutional openness in direct investment, securities investment, and cross-border financing [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced eight significant policy measures to support the high-quality development of the real economy, focusing on optimizing economic structure and enhancing credit support for key sectors [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The PBOC will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, establish a special relending quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises, and reduce the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing to 30% [3][6]. - Specific interest rates after the reduction include: 0.95% for 3-month, 1.15% for 6-month, and 1.25% for 1-year agricultural and small business relending; 1.5% for rediscount rates; and 1.75% for supplementary mortgage loans [6]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of these measures by coordinating with fiscal policies such as interest subsidies and risk cost sharing [3][6]. Group 2: Structural Tools Expansion - The PBOC's structural tools will see increased quotas and expanded support areas, including a rise in the relending quota for technological innovation and transformation from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [6][7]. - The support scope for carbon reduction tools will be broadened to include energy-efficient upgrades and green transformation projects, encouraging banks to finance comprehensive green transitions [7]. - The measures are expected to create a synergistic effect, guiding more financial resources to support critical national economic strategies and weak links [7]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Flexibility - The PBOC has indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the implicit lower limit for the reserve requirement ratio is around 5%, indicating a potential reduction space of at least 130 basis points [9]. - The PBOC's recent adjustments to relending rates and the stabilization of net interest margins provide additional room for interest rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC has established a 1 trillion yuan relending facility specifically for private enterprises to enhance financial support for small and medium-sized private businesses [11][12]. - This relending initiative aims to address financing difficulties faced by private enterprises, particularly medium-sized ones, by providing low-cost funding and clear incentives for commercial banks [12]. - The PBOC will continue to improve financial services for private enterprises and enhance collaboration with fiscal and industrial policies to create a better development environment [13].