证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 进出口数据快评 出口仍然展现较强韧性 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 6 月 9 日，海关总署数据显示，中国 5 月出口（以美元计价）同比增长 4.8%，进口同比下降 3.4%，贸易顺 差 1032.2 亿美元。 评论： 证券研究报告 图3：主要发达国家制造业景气度 图4：集装箱运价指数 出口仍然展现较强韧性 2025 年 5 月出口增速当月同比达到+4.8%，较 4 月+8.1%的水平继续回落。原因上看，关税带来的负面影响 逐步显现，5 月我国对美出口当月同比进一步下滑至-34.6%，对出口造成较大拖累，这也符合转口贸易抢 订单后逐步退潮的基本经验。但是，5 月在贸易形势面临较大压力的背景下仍然保 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, showing resilience despite a high base effect and a 3.3 percentage point decline from April, with trade surplus continuing to expand [1][2][12] Export Performance - The export performance in May is characterized by a slight decline but remains robust, primarily driven by re-exports and a temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs [2][12] - The high base from the previous year and significant reciprocal tariffs in early May suppressed exports, while direct exports to the U.S. continue to decline [2][12] - In the latter half of May, the easing of reciprocal tariffs and high export levels to ASEAN and other re-export countries provided support for exports [2][12] Quantity and Price Analysis - The analysis of export growth by quantity and price indicates a decline in quantity-driven growth, while price drag has narrowed [4] - The significant drop in quantity-driven growth is attributed to tariffs and high base effects, with raw materials showing a notable decline in quantity contribution [4] Regional and Category Insights - Exports to the EU (12.1%) and Africa (33.5%) showed a counter-trend increase, while exports to other regions, including Latin America (2.3%) and the U.S. (-34.4%), saw significant declines [6] - The increase in exports to the EU is likely benefiting from European recovery and improved China-EU trade relations, while exports to ASEAN remain high [6] Product-Specific Trends - Integrated circuits continue to see strong re-export activity, with a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, while other electronic products experienced varying degrees of decline [8] - In the automotive sector, exports increased by 13.7%, and shipbuilding exports surged by 44% [8] - Labor-intensive products like clothing (3%) and toys (-0.6%) showed mixed results, with textiles (-1.9%) and footwear (-5.5%) experiencing more significant declines [8] Import Dynamics - In May, China's import growth rate fell to -3.4%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from April, with imports from major trading partners, except the EU (0%), also decreasing [10] - The decline in imports is attributed to reduced demand for assembly materials and weakening domestic demand [10] - Notably, imports of agricultural products saw a significant rebound, with soybeans increasing by 22.6% [11] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion in May, reflecting a recovery from April [12] - Future export outlook suggests that the temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs will expire in a month, and ongoing monitoring of high-frequency indicators is necessary to observe potential turning points in re-exports and direct exports [15]

中国5月贸易顺差7,500亿元人民币。 中国5月以人民币计价进口同比下降2.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department has added Ireland and Switzerland to its "currency monitoring list," increasing the total number of closely monitored countries to nine, despite no major trading partners being accused of currency manipulation for unfair trade advantages in 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Monitoring List - Ireland and Switzerland were added to the currency monitoring list due to their significant trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $15 billion and a current account surplus over 3% of their GDP [3]. - The report indicates that countries are automatically placed on the monitoring list if they meet specific criteria related to trade surplus and foreign exchange purchasing behavior [3]. Group 2: Responses and Implications - The Swiss National Bank denied any currency manipulation, asserting that it does not attempt to distort trade balances or gain unfair competitive advantages [3]. - The report marks the first currency policy report since Trump's return to the White House, with a noticeably stronger tone compared to previous reports during Biden's administration, which did not label any country as a currency manipulator [3]. - The overall strength of the U.S. dollar has increased by an average of 7% against major currencies in 2024, reducing the incentive for countries to devalue their currencies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has placed South Korea back on the "currency manipulation watch list" due to its significant trade surpluses, indicating a political maneuver rather than a purely technical assessment of currency practices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Data and Trends - South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. surged from $14 billion in 2024 to $55 billion, while its current account surplus increased from 1.8% to 5.3% of GDP [3]. - The U.S. Treasury's criteria for "currency manipulation" lack international consensus and are unilaterally defined, leading to inconsistent application based on political contexts [3][4]. Group 2: Political Implications - The re-inclusion of South Korea on the watch list serves as a warning signal in the context of U.S.-Korea trade and industrial competition, aiming to pressure South Korea into concessions regarding its industrial policies and exports to the U.S. [4][6]. - The U.S. strategy reflects a broader trend of exerting pressure on allied nations in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting growing tensions in trade, finance, and technology sectors despite strong military ties [6][8]. Group 3: Global Financial System Impact - The U.S. Treasury's actions undermine the multilateral mechanisms for currency monitoring established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), contributing to the politicization of the international financial system [6][8]. - The use of the "currency manipulation watch list" as a policy tool may lead to increased uncertainty in global finance, affecting investor confidence and the stability of smaller economies [8].

智通财经6月6日电，越南5月贸易顺差5.51亿美元，预期4亿美元，前值5.77亿美元。 ...

Core Insights - In April, Canada's overall export value decreased by 10.8% to 60.4 billion CAD, marking the lowest level since June 2023 [1] - Significant declines were observed in exports from the automotive and parts, consumer goods, and energy products sectors [1] - Total imports in April fell by 3.5% to 67.6 billion CAD, with notable decreases in imports of automotive and parts, industrial machinery and parts, consumer goods, and electronic and electrical equipment and parts [1] Trade with the United States - Due to the impact of U.S. tariffs in April, trade between Canada and the U.S. sharply declined, with exports to the U.S. dropping by 15.7% and imports decreasing by 10.8% [1] - Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to 3.6 billion CAD, the smallest surplus since December 2020 [1] Trade with Other Countries - Trade with countries outside the U.S. reached a historical high, with exports to non-U.S. countries increasing by 2.9% and imports rising by 8.3% [1] - The total trade volume with non-U.S. countries reached 47.3 billion CAD, setting a new record [1]

巴西5月贸易盈余/贸易顺差收窄至72.39亿美元，预期顺差83.00亿美元。 ...

越南估计5月份出口同比增长14%，贸易顺差46.7亿美元。 ...

据越南通讯社：越南五月出口同比增长14%，实现46.7亿美元的贸易顺差。 ...