每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】黄金多大空间：一个参考的数量模型 我们在《"不同寻常"的黄金牛市——全球货币变局研究二》中指出， 2022 年之后黄金由美元实际利率定价的框架已经不再成立。在全球百年未有之大变局 下，全球经济的分化、各国之间信任度变化带来趋势性的居民和官方配置黄金的需求，成为黄金价格上涨的重要推动力量。 本篇专题我们尝试构建黄金定价的数量模型 ， 基于扩展模型，我们分不同情形对于未来的金价进行了预测。 乐观情形 下 ，黄金价格或有望突破 3800 美元 / 盎司； 中性情形 下 ，黄金价格或达到 3200 美元 / 盎司左右； 悲观情形 下， 黄金价格或回落至 2600-2700 美元 / 盎司的区间。 不过数量化的黄金定价模式只能作为一个参考而已。 毕竟像我们前一篇专题中指出的，本轮黄金的牛市，主要不是经济因素驱动的，而是由非经济因素驱动 的。本轮黄金的牛市是各国之间信任度的下降、以及国际秩序的重构，全球货币体系的大变局带来的长期牛市。 风险提示： 全球央行购金速度不及预期，美联储货币政策超预期收紧，模型测算误差。 【策略】 回调即是增配良机 【海外策略】 以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the A-share market, attributing it to high valuations in certain sectors, profit-taking by investors, and external uncertainties such as trade policies and global market sentiment [1][3]. Market Adjustment Factors - The market adjustment is primarily driven by heightened trade tensions, leading to decreased risk appetite among investors. This has resulted in profit-taking from previously high-performing sectors, particularly technology [2][3]. - External factors, including the recent crisis in U.S. regional banks and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, have contributed to increased market volatility [3]. Short-term Market Outlook - Despite the current market pressures, fund companies believe that the downside potential is limited. The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are expected to stabilize after a period of volatility [4][5]. - The market is currently in a risk release phase, but this is anticipated to be short-lived, with a focus on upcoming trade negotiation milestones in November [5][6]. Investment Strategy - Fund managers suggest that the market correction presents an opportunity for balanced portfolio allocation. They recommend focusing on sectors that may benefit from policy support and improving earnings expectations [7][8]. - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to show resilience during market adjustments [8][9]. Defensive Investment Considerations - Following two months of market adjustments, sectors like banking are regaining their dividend yield appeal, making dividend stocks a defensive option during periods of market volatility [9]. - The technology sector remains a focal point, although caution is advised due to the liquidity-driven nature of the recent market rally [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downward trend characterized by pressure on technology growth stocks and active defensive sectors, with funds shifting towards undervalued defensive sectors and regional thematic concepts [1] Market Performance - A-share market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1% at 3877.2 points, Shenzhen Component down 1.99%, ChiNext down 2.37%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index down 2.62%, indicating significant adjustments in the technology growth sector [2] - Over 4100 stocks in the market declined, while gains were concentrated in defensive sectors like banking and coal, with trading volume at 1.19 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in fund allocation [2] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.61% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.81%, as semiconductor, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors faced collective pressure [2] Industry Hotspots and Driving Logic - Defensive sectors and regional themes led the gains, with the banking sector up 0.37% and large state-owned banks reaching historical highs, driven by low valuations and high dividend yields attracting risk-averse funds [3] - Gold stocks strengthened due to heightened geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, while coal stocks saw a slight increase of 0.37% amid expectations of rising energy prices [3] - In the Hong Kong market, structural opportunities emerged with retail and airline stocks performing well, supported by positive operational data from the airline industry [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The technology growth sector faced collective declines, particularly in the new energy industry chain, with photovoltaic, energy storage, and charging pile indices dropping over 4% due to concerns over "anti-involution" policies and market sentiment cooling [4] - The semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors were under pressure from global semiconductor cycle adjustments and slowing demand growth for AI chips [4] - The automotive sector also faced challenges, with slowing sales growth for new energy vehicles and downward adjustments in performance expectations for component manufacturers [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a structural transition period characterized by "high valuation digestion and low valuation rebound," with policy expectations and industry recovery trends expected to guide future directions [5] - It is recommended to focus on three main lines for investment: identifying structural opportunities in the technology growth sector, particularly in the AI industry chain; monitoring innovative pharmaceuticals for clinical approvals and international expansion; and exploring long-term trends in military and solid-state battery sectors [5] - For cyclical and resource sectors, attention should be paid to "policy and supply-demand" dual drivers, with precious metals like gold and copper benefiting from global easing expectations and domestic infrastructure investment recovery [6]

Group 1 - The recent market news strengthens expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with Chairman Powell signaling a potential halt to balance sheet reduction and highlighting worsening labor market conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a stable overall labor market in the U.S., but with weak demand, further boosting rate cut expectations [1] - The offshore Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is expected to benefit significantly from continued global liquidity [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) has seen substantial inflows, with over 15.6 billion yuan invested in October 2025, indicating strong market interest [2] - The ETF's total shares have surpassed 50.36 billion, reaching a record high since its inception, reflecting robust demand [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, closely tracked by the ETF, represents a significant portion of the Hong Kong tech sector, including 30 leading companies across various industries [2] Group 3 - Long-term forecasts suggest that improvements in supply-demand dynamics may lead to a turning point in the Chinese economic cycle, with capital expenditure and R&D in the tech sector becoming new growth engines [2] - The combination of U.S. rate cuts and supportive policies in China is expected to attract continued inflows from southbound and foreign investors into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF offers advantages such as large scale, good liquidity, and low fees, making it a key tool for investors looking to capitalize on the recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector [2]

10月16日早盘，A股主要指数震荡调整后集体翻红，盘面上热点继续分化，煤炭、保险、存储器、光模 块CPO等概念表现活跃。截至9:44，A500ETF基金（512050）小幅上涨0.09%，持仓股特锐德涨超 10%，江特电机涨停，中兴通讯、中航成飞、兴齐眼药、中国人寿等纷纷跟涨。 资金流向看，昨日A500ETF基金（512050）获得资金净申购5504万元，近10个交易日累计吸金近7亿 元。 中国9月金融数据出炉。据央行初步统计，9月末，M2同比增长8.4%，M1同比增长7.2%，M1、M2"剪 刀差"刷新年内低值。前三季度，人民币贷款增加14.75万亿元；社会融资规模增量累计为30.09万亿元， 同比多4.42万亿元。业内人士表示，M1-M2剪刀差明显收敛，反映出企业生产经营活跃度提升、个人投 资消费需求回暖等积极信号。 新一代核心宽基A500ETF基金（512050）助力投资者一键布局A股核心资产。该ETF所跟踪中证A500指 数，采取行业均衡配置与龙头优选双策略，中证全部35个细分行业全覆盖，融合价值与成长属性，相比 沪深300，超配AI产业链、医药生物、电力设备新能源、国防军工等新质生产力行业，具备天然 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly down by 0.04%, the Nasdaq up by 0.66%, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.4% [1] - Technology stocks showed varied performance, with AMD surging over 9% due to a significant AI contract from Oracle, while Google and Tesla also saw gains; however, Amazon and Nvidia experienced slight pullbacks [1] - Morgan Stanley's earnings exceeded expectations, leading to a nearly 5% increase in its stock price, while Bank of America rose over 4% [1] Chinese Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.7%, with New Oriental soaring over 10% and Century Internet rising over 4%; e-commerce stocks like Alibaba and JD.com also saw broad gains [1] Commodity Market - Safe-haven sentiment drove COMEX gold futures to surpass $4200 per ounce, marking a historical high [1] Market Focus - Short-term market attention is on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the expectation of a rate cut in October, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 97.8% probability of a rate cut [1] - Analysts believe that if a rate cut occurs, it will benefit technology stocks and precious metals, but caution is advised regarding potential volatility from U.S. government shutdown risks and changes in tariff policies [1] - In the medium to long term, the health of the AI industry chain and corporate earnings reports for Q3 may serve as key drivers [1] Related ETFs - Global technology leaders: Nasdaq ETF (513300) [2] - Core U.S. equity: S&P ETF (159655) [2] - Tracking gold price performance: Gold ETF (518850) [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.66% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.4% [1] - Technology stocks exhibited varied performance, with AMD surging over 9% due to a significant AI contract from Oracle, while Google and Tesla also saw gains. In contrast, Amazon and Nvidia experienced slight pullbacks [1] - Morgan Stanley reported earnings that exceeded expectations, leading to a nearly 5% increase in its stock price, while Bank of America rose over 4% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.7%, with New Oriental soaring over 10% and Century Internet rising over 4%. E-commerce stocks like Alibaba and JD.com also saw broad gains [1] - In the commodities market, heightened risk aversion drove COMEX gold futures to surpass $4200 per ounce, marking a historical high [1] - Short-term market focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the expectation of a rate cut in October, with the probability of a rate cut now at 97.8% according to CME FedWatch Tool [1] - Analysts suggest that if a rate cut occurs, it would benefit technology stocks and precious metals, but caution is advised regarding potential volatility from U.S. government shutdown risks and changes in tariff policies [1] - In the medium to long term, the health of the AI industry chain and corporate earnings reports for Q3 may serve as key drivers [1] Related ETFs - Global technology leaders: Nasdaq ETF (513300) [2] - Core U.S. equity: S&P ETF (159655) [2] - Tracking gold price performance: Gold ETF (518850) [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22%, with the median stock price increase of 1.07% [1] - A total of 65 stocks hit the daily limit up, an increase of 28 from the previous day, while 4 stocks hit the limit down, an increase of 2 [3] Industry Highlights - The AI industry chain saw significant activity, with many stocks hitting the limit up, particularly in the sectors of robotics, cloud computing data centers, and domestic chips [1][5] - The electric grid equipment sector also had notable limit-up stocks, with companies like State Grid Nanzhi and Jinpan Technology reaching historical highs [2] - The electric power consumption elasticity coefficient in China has been increasing, supporting steady growth in electricity demand and green electricity [2] Conceptual Trends - The most active concepts among limit-up stocks included robotics (13 stocks), cloud computing data centers (6 stocks), and domestic chips (6 stocks) [6] - The automotive parts sector had 8 limit-up stocks, driven by policy support and accelerated automation transformation [4] Notable Stocks - Five stocks reached historical highs, including Zhenghe Industry, State Grid Nanzhi, Huajian Group, Matrix Shares, and Jinpan Technology [6][7] - Sixteen stocks reached near one-year highs, indicating significant upward momentum [8] Capital Flow - The top five stocks by net capital inflow included Sanhua Intelligent Controls (1.611 billion), Xinjieneng (650 million), and Zhongheng Electric (597 million) [9] - The stocks with the highest net capital inflow as a percentage of market value included Tengda Technology (7.18%), Rongji Software (4.47%), and Xinjieneng (3.90%) [10] Limit-Up Stock Characteristics - The stocks with the highest sealing funds included Yatai Pharmaceutical, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and Zhenghe Industry, indicating strong market interest [11] - A total of 58 stocks made their first limit-up today, with 6 stocks achieving a second consecutive limit-up [12]

Market Overview and Sector Characteristics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22%, with the median stock price increase of 1.07% [2] - A total of 65 stocks hit the daily limit up, an increase of 28 from the previous day, while 4 stocks hit the limit down, an increase of 2 [2] - The sectors with the most limit-up stocks included automotive parts, electric grid equipment, and chemical pharmaceuticals [2] Key Sectors and Concepts - **Automotive Parts**: 8 stocks reached the limit up, driven by policy support and accelerated automation transformation [3] - **Electric Grid Equipment**: 7 stocks reached the limit up, benefiting from new infrastructure investments and increasing electricity demand [3] - **Chemical Pharmaceuticals**: 5 stocks reached the limit up, supported by recent policy backing and recovering market demand [3] - **Robotics**: 13 stocks reached the limit up, supported by policy backing and improved industry conditions [4] - **Cloud Computing Data Centers**: 6 stocks reached the limit up, driven by policy support and growing digitalization needs [4] - **Domestic Chips**: 6 stocks reached the limit up, accelerated by domestic substitution and policy support [4] Notable Limit-Up Stocks - 16 stocks reached new highs in the past year, indicating strong market interest and upward trends [5] - 5 stocks reached historical highs, suggesting robust momentum and minimal resistance above [5] Main Capital Inflows - The top 5 stocks by net capital inflow included Sanhua Intelligent Controls (1.611 billion yuan), New Clean Energy (650 million yuan), and others [7] - The top 5 stocks by net inflow as a percentage of market value included Tengda Technology (7.18%), Rongji Software (4.47%), and others [8] Limit-Up Stock Characteristics - The stocks with the highest sealing funds included Asia-Pacific Pharmaceuticals (463 million yuan), Sanhua Intelligent Controls (311 million yuan), and others [9] - The number of stocks with consecutive limit-ups indicates strong market interest, with 58 stocks hitting their first limit-up today [10]

科创创业ETF（588360）跟踪的是科创创业50指数（931643），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从科创板与 创业板中精选市值大、流动性好的50只新兴产业股票，覆盖半导体、新能源、生物医药等核心领域。指 数样本聚焦硬科技及成熟创新企业，具有较高的行业集中度和龙头效应，能够综合反映中国前沿产业的 技术壁垒与成长性表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 平安证券指出，本轮牛市由科技板块主导，2025年是"人工智能+"时代，TMT有望获得更多超额收益。 电子行业在全球AI创新热潮和算力需求增长驱动下实现领涨，半导体、消费电子和AI算力方向多点开 花；计算机行业受益于政策、技术与基本面改善共振，AI算力和应用方向保持高景气；传媒行业中游 戏子赛道表现突出，情绪消费主线具备估值性价比。新能源领域固态电池技术引领产业变革，传统板块 走出通缩后有望量利齐升。整体来看，科技产业趋势向好，电子、计算机、传媒等行业涨幅领先且存在 业绩支撑，AI产业链将持续深化发展。 ...