此外，1月还将有2000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）到期。董希淼预计，央行将于1月25日左右开展2000 亿元MLF操作，预计为等量或加量续作，继续向市场投放中期流动性，进一步改善市场流动性的期限 结构。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，本月MLF到期量2000亿元，考虑到后续政府债发行压力以及临近春 节现金性压力的回升，后续央行利用MLF净投放和买债等工具维持流动性供给宽裕的政策操作模式料 将延续。 日前召开的2026年央行工作会议提出，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕， 保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增 长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 展望未来，业内专家普遍认为，央行仍会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等政策工具，持续向市场注入 中期流动性，这也是2026年货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，保持流动性充裕的具体体现。 央行连续第五个月加量续作6个月期买断式逆回购。 1月14日，中国人民银行消息称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月15日，中国人民银行将以固定 数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元买断式逆回购操作 ...

| 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 82846 | -1533 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 59793 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 441584 | 163 | | | 合计 | 584223 | -1370 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 44473 | 0 | | 总计 | | 628696 | -1370 | 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月14日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计628696千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少1370千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报21431元/千克，最高触及22995元/千克，最低触及21358 元/千克，截止收盘报22763元/千克，上涨8.03%。 美国劳工部周二表示，美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，与去年11月持平。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本 后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，也与去年11月持平。二者均低于市场预期。经季节性调整后的12月CPI环 比上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期；12月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%。经济学家此前预计该数据将上涨 0.3%。 ...

【导读】央行将开展9000亿元买断式逆回购操作 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，1月两个期限品种的买断式逆回购合计加量续作3000亿元，加量规模较上月增加1000亿元，为央行连续第8个月通过买 断式逆回购向市场注入中期流动性。 他分析主要原因有二：一是为保障重点领域重大项目资金需求，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达，意味着2026年1 月会有一定规模的政府债券开闸发行；二是2025年10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕后，还会继续带动今年1月配套贷款较大规模投放，放大信 贷"开门红"效应。 "着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，能够引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。"王青表示，这在助 力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也在释放数量型政策工具持续加力的信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 展望后续，王青认为，1月央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性。这是2026年货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调、 保持流动性充裕的具体体现。不过，1月中期流动性加量规模也可能延续2025年12月 ...

【 导读 】 央行将开展9000亿元买断式逆回购操作 中国基金报记者 张玲 1月14日，央行发布消息称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月15日，中国人民银行 将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个 月（181天）。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | 金融科技 | | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 政务公开 | | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Singapore's UOB has raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 7.0% to 7.5% due to strong economic performance [1] - Vietnam's economy continued to show robust growth in Q4 2025, with actual GDP growing by 8.46% year-on-year, surpassing both the previous quarter's growth of 8.25% and market expectations, marking the highest quarterly growth since 2009, excluding pandemic-related anomalies [1] - Exports and manufacturing are identified as the main drivers of economic growth, with Q4 2025 exports achieving a 19% year-on-year increase and an annual export growth rate of 17%, demonstrating strong export competitiveness [1] - The manufacturing sector also saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% in Q4, contributing to an overall manufacturing value-added growth rate of 10.5% for the year [1] Group 2 - The report warns of potential risks to Vietnam's future economic growth, including uncertainties in external demand due to its highly open economy, where exports account for 83% of GDP, and the ongoing uncertainty of U.S. trade policies [2] - Inflationary pressures are highlighted, with an average Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 3.2% in 2025, driven mainly by rising service prices, particularly in healthcare and education [2] - The Vietnamese dong depreciated by 3.1% against the U.S. dollar, leading to imported inflation pressures [2] - The report indicates that the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to maintain the refinancing rate at 4.5% throughout 2026 to ensure macroeconomic stability and manage inflation expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 15, 2024, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, reflecting a continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will implement a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price bidding method for the reverse repurchase operation, with a term of 6 months (181 days) [1] - The central bank has established a monthly pattern for liquidity injections, including 3-month reverse repos around the 5th, 6-month reverse repos around the 15th, and 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) around the 25th [1] - In January, there are 1.1 trillion yuan in 3-month reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos maturing, with the PBOC conducting an equal amount of renewal for the 3-month reverse repos [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, Wang Qing, indicates that the PBOC will use both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, reflecting a commitment to maintaining liquidity [1] - The significant rebound of the official manufacturing PMI index in December 2025 into the expansion zone suggests that demand may see a decrease in the short term due to the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies and resilient external demand [1] - The ongoing liquidity injections through reverse repos in January may lead to a delay in expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut by the PBOC [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, believes there is little reason to further loosen monetary policy in the short term, as the Fed's policy rate is at a "near-neutral" level, neither stimulating nor significantly restraining the economy [1][6] - Musalem estimates the current real policy rate, excluding inflation, to be around 1%, indicating that a shift to a clearly accommodative stance is not wise at this time [1][6] - He supports the Fed's decision to cut rates in December and expects the U.S. economy to grow at or slightly above its potential growth rate this year [1][6] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin described the December inflation data as "encouraging," noting that inflation typically rises significantly at the beginning of the year, and he hopes for moderate inflation levels in the coming months [2][7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which Barkin found reassuring as it did not rebound as some had anticipated [2][7] - Barkin emphasized the delicate balance of the current economic situation, with inflation above target but not accelerating, and unemployment rates remaining stable [2][7] Group 3: Labor Market Trends - Musalem highlighted a decline in the proportion of companies planning to hire employees this year, while the percentage of firms intending to reduce their workforce has increased [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, indicated that no measures regarding the exchange rate will be ruled out, suggesting a potential response to currency fluctuations [1] Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Japanese yen experienced a short-term appreciation, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping below 159 following the announcement [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates when conditions allow, maintaining the current monetary policy path [1] - Ueda emphasized that if the economic and inflation outlook improves, the central bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing accordingly [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the meeting on January 23, with many predicting the next interest rate hike may not occur until around June [1] - The depreciation of the yen has increased import costs, complicating Ueda's goal of achieving stable price growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current strength of the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects a shift in market confidence rather than a short-term rebound [1][2] Group 1: USD/JPY Exchange Rate Dynamics - The USD/JPY spot exchange rate recently broke a 52-week high, reaching 159.3 [1][2] - The dollar is favored due to the resilience of the U.S. economy, with traders viewing the Federal Reserve as a credible central bank capable of maintaining restrictive monetary policy when necessary [1][2] - The yen remains under pressure from growth concerns, as investors perceive the Bank of Japan's normalization policy as "slow and cautious" [1][2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Risks - Despite the potential for the currency pair to trend higher, there is an increase in policy risks [1][2] - If the yen weakens further, Tokyo authorities may intervene in the currency market [1][2] - The latest increase in the USD/JPY exchange rate is 0.1%, bringing it to 159.29 [1][2]

美国总统与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的敌意由来已久。毕竟，特朗普去年就曾威胁要解雇鲍威尔（尽管最 终并未付诸行动）。本周，美国司法部对鲍威尔展开刑事调查的消息似乎进一步激化了事态。但这究竟是试图 破坏美国央行所谓的独立性？还是仅仅是个人恩怨升级？ 我们目前尚不清楚是否存在与美联储翻新成本相关的合法法律诉讼。如果确实存在，那么将其称为蓄意破坏美 联储独立性的举动未免有些言过其实。 贵金属本周持续走高，黄金被视为应对不断变化的地缘政治和政策不确定性的理想"不确定性对冲工具"。由于 特朗普似乎正在考虑美国介入伊朗的可能性，这使得黄金继续受到投资者青睐。本周黄金价格创下历史新高 （约4634美元），市场预期美国今年将下调利率，这也进一步提升了黄金的吸引力。尽管前景依然看涨，但如 果地缘政治风险开始减弱，金价可能会进入盘整阶段。需要关注的支撑位在4570美元和4420美元附近，阻力位 在4640美元。 伊朗持续不断的抗议活动可能导致石油供应中断，加上美国可能介入，推高了油价，美国原油价格突破每桶60 美元。因此，至少目前来看，伊朗可能造成的供应中断的影响超过了委内瑞拉供应增加的影响。由于预计今年 全球石油市场将处于供 ...