中信建投研报解读2025年中央经济工作会议，财政政策延续更加积极的政策基调，总体表述偏稳。货币 政策把"物价合理回升"写进总要求，价格和传导机制被放在更加突出的位置。内需主导和国内大市场仍 是发力的关键抓手。将以制度性增收为基础进一步提振消费，明确提出推动投资止跌回稳，直面投资下 行压力。科技和产业政策方面，把建设国际科创中心和重点产业链作为两大抓手，对AI+、数字贸易、 绿色贸易、 海洋经济、新型能源体系等重点产业提出了明确指向。 ...

明明(中信证券首席经济学家) 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。货币政策方面的政策基调继续维持"适度宽松"，而具体操作层面，相 较于去年中央经济工作会议"适时降准降息"的表述，本次会议提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，表述重点 更多落在政策的效率和主动性上。此外，对于宏观政策取向，相较于去年中央经济工作会议"加强超常规逆周期调节"的 基调，本次会议调整为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，或意味着后续政策改革更加基于长远经济周期变化，"存量政策 和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估"也和12月中央政治局会议对存量、增量政策集成效应的表述一脉相承，预计政 策落地成效是下一阶段央行等宏观政策部门的主要关注对象。 回顾来看，2025年以来，货币政策在适度宽松的基调上，节奏和操作上也存在明显特征。 价格方面，美联储连续降息的环境下，央行降息空间打开。2024年下半年以来，央行降息操作既有降低实际利率、支持 经济回稳向好的考虑，也有在关键时点稳定社会预期的考量。从实际利率来看，当前企业和居民面临的实际利率均处于 较高水平，随着经济内生动能自2025年下半年边际转弱，降息的必要性有所提升。此外，20 ...

点评：世界银行上调中国2025年经济增速预期，充分体现了国际社会对中国经济长期增长潜力的积极预 期。通过多元化出口市场和内需拉动，中国在全球经济不确定背景下显示出强劲的韧性。 | 2025年12月12日 星期五 | NO.1中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。要增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。将各类经济 政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。健全预期管理机制，提振社会 信心。 NO.2央行开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作 12月11日，央行公开市场开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日有 1808亿元逆回购到期。 点评：央行开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作的决定，显示了在流动性管理方面的精准 ...

In the Federal Reserve's battle between fighting inflation and limiting unemployment, the latter side carried the day Wednesday and could also have an edge heading into 2026 if labor market weakness becomes more evident through an apparent overcounting of jobs numbers.In the immediate term, worries over the employment situation meant a vote, albeit divided by a 9-3 margin, to lower the central bank's key interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Further down the road, there are indications that policymak ...

◎新华社北京12月11日电 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话，总结2025年经 济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为实现"十五五"良好开局定向领航。 不断深化新形势下做好经济工作的规律性认识 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义。 会议总结今年经济运行情况，指出"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成""'十四五'即将圆满收官，第二个 百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局"。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜能， 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧 密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 新时代以来的中央经济工作会议，一贯重视理论总结，用以指导经济发展实践。随着形势变化，中央经 济工作会议持续深化对经济工作的规律性认识，2021年提出"四个必须"，2022年提出"六个坚持"，2023 年提出"五个必须"，2024年提出"根本保证""五个必须统筹"。 "今年会议提出的'五个必须'，是党中央在深入总结今年经济工作实践和 ...

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2025 and analyzes the current economic situation, setting specific policy arrangements and goals for 2026 [1] - The conference emphasizes the need for a "good start" to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for China's economic growth rate to be around 5% in 2026, as international organizations have raised their growth forecasts for China [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for the 14th Five-Year Plan will continue to adopt a "more proactive" approach, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits while optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures [2][3] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at or above 4%, with a total debt scale projected to increase from 12 trillion yuan this year [2][3] - There is a clear focus on "investing in people," with an emphasis on improving human capital and enhancing social welfare expenditures [3] Monetary Policy - The macroeconomic policy will adopt a more proactive stance, with monetary policy expected to remain "appropriately loose" and maintain ample liquidity [4][5] - The use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, will be implemented flexibly and efficiently to support economic stability [4][5] - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [5] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific measures including the implementation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income and stabilize investment [6] - The focus on consumption and investment as key drivers for expanding domestic demand indicates a shift towards demand-side strategies [6] Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is highlighted as a core strategy for fostering innovation [7][9] - The centers aim to leverage existing resources and address global technological competition, enhancing China's position in the global market [7][9] Market Reforms - The conference emphasizes the need for reforms to optimize the market environment, stimulate enterprise vitality, and deepen financial system support [10] - A key reform initiative includes the establishment of a unified national market, with a focus on improving the regulatory framework to support this goal [10] Capital Market Development - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing the market's ability to serve technological innovation and the real economy [11][12] - The reforms will aim to improve the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-tiered market system, facilitating the entry of long-term capital [12] Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of promoting regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements to enhance cooperation and trade facilitation [14][15] - The focus on maintaining a multilateral trade system and expanding high-standard free trade agreements is seen as crucial for China's trade strategy [14][15] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting underscores the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a particular emphasis on "de-stocking" as a key measure [16][17] - Encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing purposes is identified as a significant strategy to address market challenges [17]

杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 新华财经北京12月11日电（记者吴雨、申铖）宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手段。12月10日至11 日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，并明确要继续实施更加积极的财政政 策，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更好引导发展预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量 的合理增长，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 "保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量""加强财政科学管理"……会议明确了财政政策发力方 向。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has accelerated its interest rate cuts for the fourth consecutive time following softer inflation data, lowering the policy rate by 150 basis points to 38% [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - On December 11, the Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in the policy rate from 39.5% to 38%, exceeding expectations with a cut of 150 basis points [2]. - This marks the fourth consecutive rate cut by the Central Bank, which began in July with a reduction of 300 basis points to 43%, followed by a 250 basis point cut in September to 40.5%, and a 100 basis point cut in October to 39.5% [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The committee noted that consumer inflation in November was unexpectedly lower due to a decline in food prices, and the basic trend of inflation showed a slight decrease in October and November [5]. - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter was higher than previously predicted, and leading indicators for the fourth quarter suggest that demand conditions continue to support the process of inflation decline [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - The Central Bank emphasized a cautious approach, stating that despite signs of improvement in inflation expectations and pricing behavior, risks to inflation decline remain [6]. - The tightening policy will continue until price stability is achieved, and if there are significant deviations from the medium-term inflation targets, the Central Bank will tighten its policy stance [7][8]. - Economists had mixed expectations regarding the rate cut, with some anticipating a more cautious approach due to rising medium-term inflation expectations [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the dual support role of monetary policy in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of using tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, indicating potential easing of monetary policy in the future [1] - The need to ensure effective policy transmission mechanisms was stressed, with a specific focus on improving the quality and quantity of small and medium-sized financial institutions [1] Group 2 - The meeting placed greater emphasis on the coordination of policies, introducing the concept of integrating the effects of existing and new policies [1] - Compared to 2024, the meeting underscored the need to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policy orientation, including both existing and new policies in the assessment [1] - This new statement suggests that future incremental policies should align with current economic goals, while existing policies that do not fit the current economic transformation may undergo structural adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Turkey lowered the policy interest rate by 150 basis points from 39.5% to 38% on December 11 [1] - The decline in food prices led to a lower-than-expected inflation rate in November, with a slight decrease in the inflation trend observed in October and November [1] - The Central Bank noted that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, indicating sustained demand conditions to support the anti-inflation process [1] Group 2 - The annual inflation rate in Turkey fell from 32.87% in October to 31.07% in November, marking a four-year low and below market expectations [2] - The Central Bank acknowledged improvements in inflation expectations and pricing behavior, but still identified risks to the anti-inflation process [1] - The Central Bank aims to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved, targeting a mid-term inflation goal of 5% [1]