股指关注市场情绪，债市 或震荡运行 2026-01-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：上周A股宽基指数全线收涨，上证指数涨幅达3.82%。 p 核心观点：美国12月新增非农就业人数不及预期，但失业率下降，交易员几乎抹去1月降息押注。国务 院反垄断委员会：外卖平台服务行业拼补贴、拼价格、控流量等问题突出，将开展调查、评估。积极因 素持续显现。一方面，消费和房地产领域政策协同发力，为经济恢复提供有力支撑；另一方面，建筑业 PMI显著回升、建材价格呈现企稳迹象，预示着投资有望逐步企稳。此外，1月降准预期升温，叠加汇 率持续走强可能带动外资流入，以及公募基金开启新一轮配置，市场微观流动性得到多重呵护，行情有 望进一步深化。IC、IM等相关指数走势相对强劲。需关注潜在风险事件与情绪转向的信号，股指或震 荡运行。 p 技术分析：MACD指标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share financial sector experienced significant movement, with stocks like Ruida Futures hitting the daily limit, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by expectations for 2025 annual reports and potential monetary easing in January [1] Group 1: Market Movement - The A-share financial sector saw a notable surge, with Ruida Futures reaching a daily limit and other companies like Cuiwei Co., Nanhua Futures, Yong'an Futures, and Aijian Group also rising [1] - Brokerage stocks showed widespread gains, contributing to a reduction in the A50 index's decline [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the anticipation of 2025 annual report forecasts is beginning to materialize, indicating a higher certainty in the performance of the non-bank sector [1] - Despite no reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in December, expectations for a reserve requirement ratio cut remain, leading to market speculation about a more relaxed liquidity environment in January [1]

Economic Overview - The domestic economic growth target for this year is around 5%, with GDP growth rates for the first three quarters recorded at 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, indicating manageable pressure to meet the annual target [1] - Investment remains a crucial driver of domestic economic growth, although fixed asset investment from January to October totaled 408.914 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] - Consumption is identified as a key growth point for the future, with China's consumption accounting for only 40% of GDP compared to over 60% in developed countries, suggesting significant potential for growth [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods from January to October reached 412.1685 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] - Exports have performed better than expected, with cumulative export value from January to October at 308.4707 billion USD, up 5.3% year-on-year [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure relatively loose social financing conditions, adapting to economic and financial changes [2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is low, as indicated by recent central bank operations, including the rollover of 1 trillion yuan in medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and increased reverse repos [2] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, suggesting limited room for further policy adjustments [2][3] Market Outlook - The current economic environment presents several risks and challenges, with a complex external environment that requires further consolidation of the economic recovery [4] - There is strong demand for government bonds, and the overall strong trend in government bonds is expected to continue [4] - Short-term prospects indicate a reduced probability of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a correction in government bond futures [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, dominated by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The weak financial and macro data in October confirmed the economic downward expectation in Q4, but the market reaction was flat, and the bond market sentiment was mainly driven by the stock market, being more sensitive to stock market rises. The stock market first adjusted, then rose and fell back, and declined overall last week, leading to bond market fluctuations with only a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields rose slightly as the tax period approached, and the yield curve continued to flatten [3]. - This week (the week of November 17), the bond market will continue the oscillating pattern. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the short term has cooled, and the expectation of an interest rate cut is still weak. With the macro data in a vacuum period, the bond market will continue to oscillate, and stock market fluctuations will continue to dominate market sentiment. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may be implemented soon, but since the market has priced them fully, they may cause market fluctuations in the short term but with limited amplitude. Overall, with multiple factors such as weak fundamentals, low expectation of loose policies, the central bank's care for the capital market, the stock market entering an oscillating rest period, and the unimplemented new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the bond market is unlikely to break the deadlock and will probably continue the narrow - range oscillating pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, with long - term bond yields slightly declining. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.06% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.02bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.59bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [4]. - On November 10, affected by the warming of October inflation data, the bond market was weakly oscillating in the morning, but the long - term bonds recovered in the afternoon as the stock market fell, while short - term bonds were still weak due to tightened capital. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.03bp, and most of the Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.01% [4]. - On November 11, the bond market was generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.20bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 12, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report mentioned stabilizing growth again and deleted the "anti - arbitrage" statement. The market's loose expectation remained, driving the bond market to be generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreasing by 0.48bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 13, the stock market hit a new high, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The bond market generally weakened. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.55bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed down, with the 10 - year main contract falling 0.10% [4]. - On November 14, the capital tightened marginally and the stock market declined. The bond market was narrowly oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.14bp, and the closing prices of Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors were mixed, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 100 interest - rate bonds were issued, 43 more than the previous week, with a issuance volume of 7269 billion, an increase of 2129 billion compared with the previous week, and a net financing amount of 3903 billion, an increase of 1020 billion compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased month - on - month; the net financing amounts of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased month - on - month, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased month - on - month [10]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. Six Treasury bonds were issued, two of which were savings Treasury bonds, and the average subscription multiple of the remaining Treasury bonds was 3.39 times. Twenty - one policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.83 times, and 73 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 20.09 times [14]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the policies to stabilize growth drove up entrusted loans, and M1 continued to grow rapidly. In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion, 280 billion less year - on - year; new social financing scale was 815 billion, 597 billion less year - on - year. At the end of October, M2 increased 8.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month; M1 increased 6.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point lower than at the end of last month [14]. - In October, the year - on - year growth of RMB loans decreased due to weak domestic demand, declining external demand, and the continuous downward pull of implicit debt replacement on new medium - and long - term corporate loans. The year - on - year growth of social financing continued to decline, mainly affected by the significant year - on - year decrease in government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy. Due to the higher base in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 declined at the end of October but remained at a relatively fast level. The growth rate of M1 declined as the low - base effect weakened, but it still grew rapidly due to the increase in current deposits of urban investment platform enterprises during debt replacement and the increase in current deposits of small and medium - sized enterprises [14]. - The macro data in October continued to decline. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% previously; the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first 10 months was 6.1%, compared with 5.8% in the whole year of 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first 10 months was 4.3%, compared with 3.5% in the whole year of 2024. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, compared with a decline of 0.5% previously and a growth of 3.2% in the whole year of 2024 [14]. - The industrial production growth rate declined rapidly in October due to different working days compared with last year, negative export growth, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and the weakening of the pulling effect of policies to boost domestic demand. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline in October mainly because the effect of the subsidy policy for trade - in weakened, the base in the same period last year increased, and the accelerated decline of the real - estate market dragged down real - estate - related consumption. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to October was - 1.7%, with negative cumulative year - on - year values for two consecutive months, mainly due to the slowdown of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real - estate investment. Overall, affected by weak external demand, weakening domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time needed for policies to stabilize growth to take effect, the macro - economic operation in October continued the weakening trend since Q3 [15]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed performance. The blast furnace operating rate and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants both declined slightly, while the daily average molten iron output increased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also continued to increase. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased slightly. In terms of prices, the pork price declined slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including the prices of rebar, copper, and crude oil [16]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 626.2 billion. The R007 and DR007 both increased; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock commercial banks increased; the direct discount rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks of all tenors decreased slightly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly; the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased slightly [26][29][32].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - This operation serves as a continuation of a similar scale reverse repurchase that recently matured and aims to support liquidity needs during the peak of government bond issuance in September and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct a second 6-month reverse repurchase operation in mid-September and to utilize various monetary policy tools to enhance short- and medium-term liquidity [1] Group 2 - The financial institution analyst noted that fiscal spending at the end of August supports a seasonal easing of the funding environment, with a smaller scale of government bond payments expected this month [2] - Following a reserve requirement ratio cut in May, the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions in China stands at 6.2%, which is relatively high compared to major economies [2] - The PBOC's monetary policy report indicates a commitment to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, with expectations for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and long-term liquidity injections in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - The central bank's recent 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation is likened to a "liquidity deep-water bomb" for the market, aimed at alleviating liquidity concerns as the end of the quarter approaches [1][3] - The operation involves the central bank temporarily acquiring bonds from banks, allowing it to directly manage liquidity in the market, which is crucial given the high volume of government bond issuances and maturing interbank certificates [3][4] - This move is expected to lower short-term funding rates, potentially leading to increased lending from banks, which could benefit sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and finance [4][5] Group 2 - The central bank's actions serve two main purposes: to instill confidence in the market amid mixed economic data and to fill the gap in liquidity tools that were either too short or too long [4][5] - Investors are advised to focus on the long-term effects of this operation, particularly whether banks will effectively lend to real enterprises and if key sectors like technology and consumption will receive necessary funding [5] - The operation signals potential opportunities in financial, real estate, and high-end manufacturing sectors, but investors should be cautious of companies that may not have solid fundamentals [5]

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China announced the creation of new structural monetary policy tools to stabilize the economy and financial markets, focusing on maintaining ample liquidity and supporting employment and growth in key areas [1] - The central bank is also exploring additional policy tools to enhance support for employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, including promoting "two new" debt financing tools for private enterprises, which have issued 25.5 billion yuan [1] Banking Sector Adjustments - Several banks, including China Merchants Bank and others, are closing credit card centers and shifting to localized operations due to slowing retail business growth, with 23 credit card centers of China Merchants Bank approved for closure in 2024 [5] - The first batch of listed banks has announced the abolition of supervisory boards, with only Postal Savings Bank retaining the position of supervisor, following new regulations from the National Financial Supervision Administration [7][8] Financial Performance of Banks - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a revenue of 45.922 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.598 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with total assets reaching 9.552 trillion yuan, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit [6] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank's total assets exceeded 3.4 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 17.105 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.949 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards quality and service over mere scale [9] - Suzhou Bank reported a net profit growth of 10.16% year-on-year, with total assets surpassing 720 billion yuan and a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of recent changes in monetary policy by the central bank on the financial markets, particularly focusing on interest rates and credit markets [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank has reformed its operations by changing the announcement format for open market operations (OMO) to focus on bidding and winning amounts instead of reverse repurchase operation amounts. This aims to diminish the MLF's role as a policy rate and provide high-frequency signals to guide market expectations [3][4]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The ten-year government bond yield has recently declined to 1.78%, influenced by easing pessimism, expectations of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, and signs of a market peak in equities. A potential RRR cut of 50 basis points is anticipated in April [3][4][5]. - **Economic Recovery Drivers**: The economic recovery in 2025 is expected to be driven by real estate and stimulus policies, with a significant consumption promotion plan of 300 billion being implemented earlier than in 2024, which is expected to have a more pronounced economic impact [6][7]. - **Market Liquidity**: The liquidity in the market is tightening overall, with structural interest rate cuts expected following the central bank's 450 billion MLF operation. The credit market, particularly short-term debt trading, remains active [8][9]. - **Investment Strategies**: Credit bond investment strategies should focus on cost-effectiveness and safety, with an emphasis on short-term high-yield municipal bonds. The market is advised to maintain a gradient entry strategy to manage volatility [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Observability**: Observing the central bank's actions has become more challenging due to increased operational secrecy and the limited availability of high-frequency indicators. This has led to greater reliance on speculation regarding liquidity and interest rate trends [11][12]. - **Changes in the Funding Market**: The funding market has seen significant changes, with large banks facing liability shortages, leading to non-bank sectors becoming key players in funding. The net inflow of funds reached 3 trillion in mid-February, matching last year's peak [12]. - **Credit Risk Considerations**: Despite the focus on monetary easing, credit risks remain a concern, particularly in the context of recent debt resolution processes. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding market changes that could affect credit stability [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of monetary policy changes on market dynamics and investment strategies.

第一笔（试盘）是引流之笔，就打开心扉之笔，要坚决执行。试盘，是服务战略的工具，不是短线交易的策略；是刺探敌情的侦查连，不是决胜的大军 团。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20241115— 全球国家治理实验室：US+AR（-年内地方债供给担忧±经济数据喜忧参半+股市大幅下跌+资金面宽松=中上)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显上行。 央行今日公开市场开展9810亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日122亿元逆回购到期，此外还有14500亿元MLF及800亿元国库现金定存到期。 合计净回笼5612亿元。 资金面宽松，资金利率变化不大。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 11. 15) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.62 | 0 | | 2 ...