【内容摘要】12月16日，虽然适逢税期，但资金面仍偏宽松；市场情绪有所修复，债市小幅回暖；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限 美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【前11个月全国城镇新增就业1210万人】据人力资源和社会保障部12月16日消息，1-11月，全国城镇新增就业1210万人，城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%。人 力资源和社会保障部就业促进司有关负责人表示，下一步，将实施稳岗扩容提质行动，全力以赴稳定就业大局；聚焦就业重点群体，精准施策稳定和扩大就 业；强化职业技能培训，更好提升劳动者就业能力；优化就业公共服务，更好促进人岗高效匹配。 【中央财办：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务】据新华社，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年排在首位的 重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。明年要从供需两端发力稳定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库 存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚性和改善性需求。展望明年，活跃的要素流动和创新为发展持续注入新动能，人流、物流 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a slight increase of 0.34% as of the latest report [1] - Major stocks in the sector are performing well, with Miaokelan increasing over 5%, Lianhua Holdings up over 4%, and several others like Angel Yeast, New Dairy, and Dongpeng Beverage rising over 2% [1][2] - The sector is considered a crucial part of the broader consumer market, and ongoing policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to benefit the food and beverage sector significantly [3] Group 2 - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low, making it an attractive time for potential investments. The food ETF's underlying index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.21, which is at the 6.46% percentile of the last decade [3] - There are positive signals from both supply and demand sides in the liquor sector, indicating potential for growth. The current market conditions suggest that high-quality companies with pricing power may see significant growth opportunities [3] - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, and seasoning stocks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand in China as a response to both internal and external economic challenges, positioning it as a key driver for sustainable economic growth and modernization [1]. Group 1: Strategic Logic of Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy of expanding domestic demand is rooted in a deep understanding of the economic laws governing large nations and is a proactive response to current internal and external challenges [2]. - Expanding domestic demand aligns with the universal pattern of large economies, where internal demand typically drives growth, as evidenced by the experiences of the US, Germany, and Japan [3]. - It serves as a strategic foundation to address uncertainties in the external environment, such as rising protectionism and geopolitical risks, thereby enhancing economic autonomy and resilience [4]. - The strategy is crucial for resolving the current economic contradictions in China, particularly the mismatch between supply and demand, which has led to persistent low consumer spending and investment confidence [5]. Group 2: Multiple Significances of Expanding Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a core engine for driving high-quality economic development, as it stimulates supply upgrades and innovation [6]. - It fosters a positive interaction between "investment in people" and improvements in living standards, linking economic growth directly to social welfare [9]. - The strategy is a strategic pivot for constructing a new development pattern, enhancing domestic market strength, and improving international competitiveness [10]. - It is inherently linked to enhancing public welfare, with policies aimed at improving income, social security, and supply quality to elevate living standards [10]. Group 3: Future Pathways for Expanding Domestic Demand - Future efforts to expand domestic demand should transcend traditional stimulus approaches, focusing on a systematic and structural policy framework that integrates income growth, quality supply, smooth circulation, and security [11]. - Implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents is essential to address the "ability to consume" issue, emphasizing reforms in income distribution and enhancing labor compensation [12]. - Creating high-quality supply to generate and lead new demand is necessary to resolve the structural mismatch between supply and demand, particularly in the service sector [13]. - Building a unified national market is crucial to eliminate barriers to consumption and enhance market efficiency [14]. - Coordinating "investment in people" with macroeconomic policies is vital to stabilize consumer confidence and spending expectations [16]. Conclusion - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic necessity for China to leverage its large market advantages, adhere to economic laws, and pursue high-quality development, requiring profound reforms in income distribution, market unification, and service sector openness [17].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a slight increase of 0.34% as of the latest update [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector are performing well, with Miaokelan Duo rising over 5%, Lianhua Holdings increasing over 4%, and several others like Angel Yeast, New Hope Dairy, and Dongpeng Beverage gaining over 2% [1][2] - The central government's focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector significantly, as it is a crucial part of the consumer market [3][4] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it an attractive opportunity for investment [3] - As of December 16, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Food ETF's underlying index is 20.21, which is at the 6.46% percentile of the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment scenario [3] - The white liquor sector is also seen as entering a phase of potential recovery, with positive signals from both supply and demand sides expected to catalyze growth [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI sub-index for the food and beverage industry, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other segments like beverages and dairy [5] - Key stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, and Haitian Flavoring, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in consumer demand [5]

宏观日报 | 2025-12-17 上游价格持续回落，关注扩内需政策推进 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）欧盟将放弃2035年内燃机禁令。欧盟拟放宽新车排放标准，取消对内燃机的实质性禁令。欧盟委员 会将降低原定2035年起禁止销售汽油和柴油新车的标准，转而允许部分插电式混合动力车和配备燃油增程器的电 动汽车上市。新提案要求到下个十年中期尾气排放量较当前目标减少90%（原目标为100%减排）。这一转变背后， 是因为欧洲的汽车制造商在与特斯拉和比亚迪等中国电动汽车的竞争中举步维艰。 服务行业：1）针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同志表示， 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提 振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加 力扩内需。明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-17 真空期权益市场缩量波动 市场分析 非农数据喜忧参半。宏观方面，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年 排在首位的重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。另外，明年要从供需两端发力稳 定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚 性和改善性需求。海外方面，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期 的5万人；失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。此外，10月就业数据被大幅下修。 股指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，沪指跌1.11%收于3824.81点，创业板指跌2.1%。行业方面，板块指数跌 多涨少，仅商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务行业收红，通信、有色金属、电力设备、传媒行业跌幅居前。当日沪 深两市成交额为1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%报48114.26点，纳指涨0.23%报 23111.46点。 期指基差收敛。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货当月合约本周五交割，基差趋于收敛。成交 ...

逻辑：国家发改委在《求是》杂志发表《坚定实施扩大内需战略》文 章指出，加快健全扩大内需体制机制。推动清理汽车、住房等消费不合理 限制性措施，建立健全适应消费新业态新模式新场景的管理办法。截至 12 月 16 日，5 家钢厂公布 2026 年冬储政策，涵盖东北、华北及西北地区。 政策要求 12 月 20 日前全额付款，未结算资源按次年 3 月 16 日至 4 月 15 日均价结算，单日结算上限 15%，计息方式为 6 厘按日计、点价当日止息。 邯郸已于 12 月 14 日启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，辖区内钢铁企业严格 落实限产管控措施，板材钢厂三座高炉处于检修状态，预计日均铁水产量 将减少约 15000 吨；另有一座高炉计划加入检修行列，届时将进一步影响 日均铁水产量约 5000 吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 底部运行 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文 ...

早盘速递 2025/12/17 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (800,000) (700,000) (600,000) (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-16 2025-12-15 2025-12-12 2025-12-11 2025-12-10 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 上证指数 | 日涨跌幅% -1.11 | 月内涨跌幅% -1.64 | 年内涨跌幅（%） 14.11 | 近一年走势 | | | 上证50 沪深300 | -1.08 -1.20 | -0.50 -0.64 | 10.06 14.30 | | | | 中证500 | -1.58 | -0.43 | 22. ...

Market Performance - On December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.1%[3] - The total trading volume on December 16 was 1.75 trillion, a decrease of approximately 40 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - Major sectors that experienced declines included telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, media, and machinery, while sectors like commerce, social services, and beauty care saw slight increases[1] - The technology-heavy STAR 50 Index did not reach a new low but has been on a downward trend since November, indicating significant short-term pressure for recovery[1] Capital Flow - On December 16, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 17.388 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 4.223 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflows were general retail, military electronics, and components, while the top three sectors for outflows were semiconductors, communication equipment, and semiconductors[4] Policy Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for anti-monopoly enforcement and the establishment of a unified market to enhance competition and reduce barriers[5] - The commission also highlighted the importance of improving consumer demand mechanisms and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automotive and housing[6] Industry Trends - The storage chip market has seen a significant price increase, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices rising over 300% since September, driven by AI developments and the "compute with storage" trend[9] - From January to November, the national railway transported 4.28 billion passengers, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and setting a historical record for the same period[10] Fund Dynamics - As of December 15, 138 public fund institutions conducted 8,546 self-purchases, with a total net subscription amounting to 255.087 billion, reflecting a 1733.71% increase compared to the same period last year[11][12] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 493.584 billion, with stock ETFs accounting for 130.3 billion and bond ETFs for 256.058 billion[13]

2025年12月17日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.494 | 105.785 | 105.785 | 107.870 | 107.900 | 111.53 | 111.75 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.024 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.020 | -0.140 | ...