上一次股债汇"三杀"发生了什么？20250428 摘要 • 类滞胀压力及关税政策制约美联储降息空间，基建和对华关税可能推升 PCE 至年底 4%左右，若未来一两个月关税无显著进展，市场预期 6 月降 息面临挑战，美债避险效果不佳。 • 政治局会议释放扩内需信号，消费、科技（国产替代）、基建和房地产开 发链有望受益，其中科技领域景气度高且有政策支持，消费类行业处于偏 左侧机会，基建和地产链需观察房地产未来趋势。 • 黄金价格受多种因素影响，包括美债利率、美元汇率、央行购金量及美国 赤字等，长期来看美国赤字率对实际金价有强解释力，央行购金量与实际 金价呈正相关，消费者预期越差实物资产价格越高。 • 2025 年黄金价格显著上涨，估值相对较高，但避险需求、抗通胀特性及 美元、美债避险能力减弱导致黄金稀缺性增加，长期投资角度看，黄金仍 具备吸引力，年化回报率与股票相当。 • 外资对中国市场看法略有变化，倾向于等待政策进一步明确信号再进行配 置，中国市场配置比例从上个月快速转为低配水平，行业方面，AI 和半导 体仍受青睐，分红和回购风格成为第二选择。 Q&A 美国股债汇三杀的背景和含义是什么？历史上发生过类似情况吗？ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing escalation of the global tariff war, particularly between the US and China, which is expected to lead to increased volatility in equity markets and a potential "hard landing" for the US economy [2][10][11] - Domestic economic indicators show a weakening trend, with March data reflecting a 12.4% year-on-year increase in exports, driven by a low base and export rush, while imports fell by 4.3%, indicating persistent domestic demand issues [12][13] - The report emphasizes the need to shift investment strategies from small-cap growth to large-cap value defensive stocks, anticipating this transition to last at least until signs of an earnings bottom emerge [2][10][13] Group 2 - Growth-oriented dividend assets are defined as those sacrificing some dividend yield for potential profit improvement through capital expenditure, which may lead to higher valuations in the market [3][23] - The report identifies two main drivers for growth-oriented dividend assets: the expectation of fiscal policy support and the potential for rising dividend yields, which can help avoid static valuation traps [3][23][26] - A comprehensive screening model for growth-oriented dividend assets has been developed, focusing on five key factors: relative dividend yield advantage, stable dividend payout ratio, ample operating cash flow, stable or improving ROE, and increasing capital expenditure [3][35][34] Group 3 - The report suggests a differentiated approach to sector allocation, recommending a reduction in exposure to AI sectors with low penetration rates, while increasing allocation to structural technology growth areas and growth-oriented dividend assets [4][23] - Specific sectors highlighted for increased allocation include telecommunications, infrastructure, and consumer sectors, which are expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and capital expenditure [4][23][24] - The report also notes that gold stocks and innovative pharmaceuticals are positioned to benefit from rising gold prices and improving profit margins, respectively [4][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is focusing on trade negotiations and peace talks in the next 100 days, amidst controversies surrounding its economic policies and declining approval ratings [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies - Trump has implemented a series of controversial economic policies, including tariffs, which have been compared to "torpedoes" disrupting the U.S. economy [1][2]. - A recent poll indicates that 72% of respondents believe Trump's economic policies are likely to lead to a recession in the short term, and 53% feel the economic situation has worsened since his inauguration [5]. Group 2: Approval Ratings - Trump's approval rating after 100 days in office stands at 39%, a decrease of 6 percentage points since February, marking the lowest approval rating for any U.S. president at this stage in the last 80 years [4]. - 41% of respondents reported that their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump took office [5]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The administration is urging countries to negotiate with the U.S. to reach agreements within 90 days, although analysts believe this goal is unlikely to be met [2]. - Trump has previously claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, a statement he later admitted was made in jest, as peace talks have not progressed [2].

A股近期有所反弹 4月28日，A股三大指数小幅下跌，沪指全天维持在3300点附近。4月以来，受特朗普政府所谓的"对等 关税"冲击，全球资本市场出现大幅波动，A股也被牵连。 不过，在中国多部门密集部署、推出多种举 措之后，A股有所反弹。 如何看待A股近期的走势？市场风险偏好是否正在边际性改善？东吴期货首席投资官吴照银为我们带来 他的解读。 0:00 南方财经全媒体记者杨雨莱 广州报道 A股"成绩单"表现亮眼 4月底，2025年一季报披露临近尾声，A股市场上市公司交出了一份较为亮眼的成绩单。截至4月27日， 超过2700家上市公司发布了2025年一季报，已发布一季报的公司中，约四成实现了营收和归母净利润的 双增长，约六成企业实现净利润同比增长，百余家公司增幅超100%。其中，基础化工、电力设备、有 色金属等板块表现突出。 市场风险偏好在稳步改善 吴照银：在过去的三周里，A股市场和全球资本市场的局势都有所缓和。尽管关税战尚未达成最终协 议，市场的整体趋势仍然是朝着稳定的方向发展。我们可以看到市场已经开始慢慢回升，波动幅度逐渐 减小，整体运行状态趋于平稳。同时，市场的风险偏好也在稳步改善。 在这个时间点上，我们对市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the premium rates of cross-border ETFs, particularly the Japanese TOPIX ETF, reflects increased caution among domestic investors due to tariff uncertainties and market volatility [1][8]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Sentiment - As of April 28, the premium rate of the Japanese TOPIX ETF has fallen into negative territory at -0.33%, indicating a significant drop in investor interest [1][8]. - The premium rates for various ETFs linked to the US and Japanese stock markets have decreased to below 1%, compared to a peak of 20% last year [1]. - The US 50 ETF, which tracks the MSCI USA 50 Index, has seen a cumulative decline of 11% since the beginning of 2025, with a premium rate narrowing to approximately 0.78% [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index is currently fluctuating within a range of 5000 to 5500 points, influenced by mixed factors including tariff policy flexibility and earnings expectations [4]. - Despite the overall challenging macro environment, approximately 46% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings exceeding expectations, with only 10% significantly below expectations [5]. - The corporate buyback window has opened, with an approved buyback scale of $377.1 billion so far this year, expected to reach $1.45 trillion for the year, providing substantial market support [6]. Group 3: Japanese Market Outlook - Japanese equities are viewed positively by institutions, with expectations of continued wage growth and inflation stabilization, which may support the stock market [10][11]. - The introduction of the NISA system in January 2024 is anticipated to accelerate the inflow of tax-exempt savings into the Japanese stock market, potentially increasing local investor interest [11][12]. - The governance reforms in Japanese companies have attracted significant international capital, improving transparency and reducing volatility in the stock market [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a proactive approach in economic management, focusing on domestic demand expansion and self-sufficiency in response to external uncertainties [1][8] - The Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of strengthening bottom-line thinking and preparing contingency plans to ensure economic stability, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][8] - The report indicates that expanding internal demand is crucial for countering external shocks and low domestic inflation, with future policies expected to revolve around this central theme [1][8] Group 2 - Domestic economic data for Q1 shows positive signs, with industrial production and domestic consumption showing relative strength, although Q2 may face volatility due to external factors [2][16] - The report notes a potential easing of the "tariff war" between the US and China, which could positively impact market sentiment, but warns that formal trade negotiations have not yet commenced, leaving external trade risks high [2][17] - The report suggests that the capital market may benefit from strong signals of domestic demand expansion, with sectors such as consumer goods, real estate, and technology being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [3][18] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors that may benefit from the expansion of domestic demand, including consumer electronics, automotive, and healthcare, particularly in light of upcoming holidays that may boost spending [3][18] - It also recommends a cautious approach to investment in defensive assets and dividend-paying stocks to mitigate ongoing external risks [3][18] - The focus on technology and self-sufficiency is underscored, with attention drawn to domestic alternatives in critical areas such as semiconductors and emerging industries like robotics and healthcare [5][18]

如今的特朗普正在为自己的关税失败找退路，因此特朗普突然调转枪口，猛烈批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并要求鲍威尔赶紧辞职。而为了推卸 责任，特朗普还将关税战这口大黑锅，提前扣在了鲍威尔的头上。 在特朗普看来，如果关税战失败，那便可以将一切的责任都推给美联储，而如果关税战胜利，那自己依旧是民众眼中的"救世主"。 前言 特朗普为什么要说谎？是因为美国失算了、失控了、失血过多了，但就是不承认"交易的艺术"失败了！ 最近，特朗普不断释放"和中国正在谈"甚至将"达成协议"的假消息，却接连被我国外交部、商务部、驻美大使馆及时辟谣。 因为中方无数次地重申谈判的前提是平等、尊重、互惠，美国一天不彻底取消所有对华滥加的单边关税，那就一切免谈！ 而如今的特朗普又失算了，一直与他作对的美联储主席鲍威尔居然接受了中方的提议，不仅站到了这一届美国政府的对立面，并且还有189 个国家的代表见证了这一幕。 从目前的情况下来看，如今特朗普政府早已陷入了四面楚歌的地步，而在本轮的"中美大战"中，最大的输家也已经浮出了水面。 东盟站队中国 在特朗普挥动"关税大棒"后，东盟拒绝妥协公开站队中国，这无异于是当着全世界面前打了特朗普的脸。 要知道，在关税战刚开 ...

据中国驻韩国大使馆网站消息，4月25日，韩国NEWS1通讯社发布韩国知名国际关系问题专家、全球战略合作研究院院长黄载皓教授对戴兵大使的专访。采 访全文如下： 中方反复强调，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢。关税战、贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路，脱钩断链只会孤立自己。对于关税战，我们不愿打，但也 不怕打。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。 我注意到韩美24日举行了"2+2"磋商，韩国国内许多观点认为韩应审慎应对。各国国情不同，中方尊重各方通过平等磋商解决与美方的经贸分歧。同时，中 方坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价同美达成所谓交易。各方都应站在公平正义的一边，对美错误行为，国际社会不能听之任之，否则所有国家都会 沦为受害者。 二、您如何评价韩中经贸关系？近年不少韩企撤离中国市场，一些韩国舆论也对中国技术进步和产业升级感到担心，您怎么看这个问题？未来双方可在哪些 领域加强合作？ 经贸合作一直是中韩关系的"压舱石"。30多年来，双方发挥各自优势，不断深化务实合作，实现互利共赢，并推动两国产供链深度互嵌，已形成你中有我、 我中 ...

本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 28 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油盘面仍然偏弱,注意假期内时间节点 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 摘要: 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍指 向下方,偏空看待。短期市场经过海外风险偏好的改善。原油随风险 资产有一定上行修复,但对关税战的判断仍是短期中美不会有缓和出 现。本周美国一系列经济数据公布将逐步反应关税影响,如数据走弱, 宏观衰退逻辑或重新回归。此外在哈萨克斯坦对原油产量的表态减弱 了补偿减产协议的最终执行效果。供应压力或进一步提前,原油市场 中长期过剩格局依然存在。 关键时间节点上,五一假期中除了美国一系列经济数据公布,5 月 3 日美伊的第四轮谈判,5 月 5 日 OPEC+会议也可能从供应端形成 新的驱动。目前看伊朗有达成协议的意愿, OPEC+也 ...

行业板块 和题材表现上， 银行股新高，电力冲高回落，消费、地产 等权重板块 领跌 拖累指 数表现，其中 银行股强势 ， 工商银行、建设银行、江苏银行、成都 银行 等创历史新高，显 示资金避险情绪升温，高股息策略受青睐。电力板块 则 冲高回落 ， 华银电力（ 3连板）、 华电辽能（2连板）涨停，但西昌电力炸板回落， 说明电力板块开始分化， 板块持续性存疑。 二、 4 月末业绩线过渡，预计 5 月科技成长为主回归 一、 行情复盘：指数缩量调整，银行股逆势新高，题材轮动乏力 今天 大盘缩 量震荡，三大指数全天弱势震荡，沪指跌 0.2% ， 深成指跌 0.62%，创业板指 跌0.65%，市场成交额1.06万亿（较前一日缩量572亿），显示 节前整体 资金观望情绪浓 厚。 同时由于财报季尾声，更多个股暴雷甚至 ST出现，近4000家 个股 下 跌，近百股跌超 9%， 同时涨停和跌停都达到 40家， 市场亏钱效应明显，短线情绪低迷。 会议刺激政策没超预期， 消费、地产 板块 重挫 ， 食品饮料、零售（有友食品、贝因美、国 光连锁跌停） 等 全线调整 （除了少部分业绩优秀的个股，比如珀莱雅 2连板） ；房地产受 政策预期降 ...