Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that nearly all decision-makers support not lowering interest rates, with only two dissenters [4] - The overall tone of the July meeting was described as "hawkish," emphasizing reliance on upcoming economic data [4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with ongoing debates about future rate cuts [8][11] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% and the S&P 500 down 0.24%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is expected to influence market sentiment [8][19] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global is set to release the preliminary PMI data for August, with manufacturing PMI expected at 49.5 and services PMI at 54.2, indicating potential impacts on the dollar and gold prices [10][11] - A significant drop in the services PMI could negatively affect the dollar, while a rebound in manufacturing PMI above 50 could support the dollar's strength [11] Group 4: Geopolitical Developments - Russia reported significant military actions against Ukrainian forces, claiming over 1,300 casualties and the destruction of various military assets [13] - NATO confirmed its support for Ukraine during a recent defense ministers' meeting, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [14][15] - In the Israel-Palestine conflict, Israel's military operations have resulted in substantial casualties, with over 62,000 reported deaths since the conflict's escalation [18]

今年夏天在国会作证前几分钟，美联储主席鲍威尔独自坐在木镶板会议厅里，直视前方，似乎陷入沉 思。 鲍威尔后来告诉一位同僚，他当时感觉陷入僵局，已准备好回应关于美联储核心职责的问题，即维持低 通胀和充分就业。鲍威尔看起来已经做好了接受批评的准备，而他并没有等太久。 美国总统特朗普的共和党盟友、俄亥俄州参议员伯尼·莫雷诺（Bernie Moreno）在听证开始一小时后， 展开了一场夸张的抨击。他指责鲍威尔将特朗普关税与物价上涨、经济放缓关联的言论存在党派偏见。 "实际上，我根本不评论关税，"鲍威尔说，"我只评论通胀。" 莫雷诺无视他的话，称通胀正在下降，呼应了特朗普的说法。这位美国总统要求立即降息，并因鲍威尔 不配合而贬低其诚信与智力，称他是"笨蛋""蠢货"。而正是特朗普本人2017年曾提名鲍威尔担任这一职 务。 莫雷诺在发言时间结束时说，"我们是被数百万选民选出来的，你是被一个人选出来的，而他现在不希 望你在这个位置上。"鲍威尔闻言挑了挑眉，关掉麦克风，转向下一位参议员的提问。 对这位美联储主席来说，这只是普通的一天。他每天醒来都处于批评者的围攻之下，以特朗普为首的批 评者称通胀已得到控制，经济已准备好迎接降息。 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Type: Freight Index (European Line) Futures Daily Report Key Data Futures Market - EC2510 (Main Contract) Closing Price: 1325.00, down 33.8 [1] - EC2512 Closing Price: 1721.4, down 48.2 [1] - EC2510-EC2512 Spread: -420.90, up 0.00 [1] - EC2510-EC2602 Spread: -177.00, up 0.00 [1] - EC Contract Basis: 825.17, up 0.00 [1] - EC Main Contract Open Interest: 54,293, up 2,566 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (Weekly): 2180.17, down 55.31 [1] - SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (Weekly): 1106.29, down 24.15 [1] - SCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly): 1460.19, down 29.49 [1] - CCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly): 1193.34, down 7.39 [1] - CCFI (European Line) (Weekly): 1790.47, down 8.58 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (Daily): 1927.00, up 37.00 [1] - Panamax Freight Index (Daily): 1665.00, down 28.00 [1] - Average Charter Price (Panamax Vessel): 13789.00, down 98.00 [1] - Average Charter Price (Cape Vessel): 21200.00, down 786.00 [1] Core View - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fell collectively, with the main contract EC2510 down 2.49% and the far-month contracts down 1-3% [1] - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% week-on-week decline [1] - The top shipping companies launched a "price war" to compete for off-season cargo volume, and the market expectation turned cold [1] - US President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors increased the uncertainty of global trade [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased marginally, while the ECB had more flexibility in its interest rate policy [1] - Overall, the uncertainty of the trade war remained, the demand expectation of the freight index (European line) was weak, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [1] Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and the FHFA Director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [1] - ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone's economic growth might slow down this quarter, and the global trade situation remained unclear [1] - The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% for the fourth time this year [1] Upcoming Data Releases - UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index on August 22 at 07:01 [1] - Japan July Core CPI Annual Rate on August 22 at 07:30 [1] - Germany Second Quarter Unadjusted GDP Annual Rate Final Value on August 22 at 14:00 [1]

Group 1: UK Inflation Data - The UK's inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, the highest in 18 months, further diminishing market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the central bank [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.6% in June, marking the fastest growth since January 2024 [1] - Key contributors to inflation included rising prices for airline tickets, hotels, and automotive fuel, with food inflation accelerating from 4.5% to 4.9%, the highest since February 2024 [1] Group 2: US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting indicated that only two officials voted against maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, showing a lack of support for immediate rate cuts [2] - The debate among officials centered around the impact of tariffs on inflation and the current policy stance's restrictiveness, with some suggesting that the federal funds rate may be close to neutral [2] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The US dollar index experienced slight declines, trading around 98.30, influenced by expectations of a rate cut and political pressures on the Federal Reserve's independence [3] - The euro showed slight gains, trading near 1.1650, supported by technical buying and favorable CPI data from the Eurozone [4] - The British pound declined to around 1.3460, pressured by diminished expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns regarding the Bank of England's rate outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in deposit interest rates by several village and town banks in regions such as Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin indicate a trend of rate cuts primarily among small and medium-sized banks, aimed at stabilizing net interest margins in response to declining profitability [1][4] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - Multiple village and town banks have announced reductions in deposit rates, with decreases ranging from 10 to 20 basis points [1][3] - For instance, Jiangsu Bank has lowered its three-year fixed deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, a reduction of 10 basis points [2] Market Response and Trends - The trend of lowering deposit rates is primarily seen in small and medium-sized banks, which are actively managing their funding costs to address the pressure from narrowing net interest margins [4][6] - Despite the overall downward trend in deposit rates, some banks have introduced large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) with interest rates exceeding 2%, attracting market attention [4] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the downward trend in deposit rates will continue, with expectations of a new round of rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of the year [5][6] - The necessity for small and medium-sized banks to optimize their deposit structures and reduce reliance on high-interest deposits is emphasized, as this could lead to unsustainable business practices in the long term [4][7]

·T. Rowe Price：鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔会议上保持中立 ·PGIM：鲍威尔可能暗示将采取更渐进的方式降息 ·贝莱德建议投资者向对冲基金投入更多资金 ·联昌国际银行：印尼央行可能在第四季度再降息25个基点 ·联昌国际银行（CIMB）经济学家表示，印尼央行可能会在第四季度再降息25个基点，将政策利率降至 4.75%。如果新的关税措施或更疲弱的财政与增长表现拖累经济，2026年可能会进一步宽松。由于第二 季度GDP强于预期，印尼央行将2025年增长预期上调至4.6%-5.4%区间中值以上，并表示下半年增长将 受政府支出和重点项目支持。CIMB指出，这一积极指引意味着最新的降息不太可能标志着持续宽松周 期的开始。展望未来，CIMB预计，印尼央行将在信贷疲弱和贷款增长放缓的背景下，采取数据依赖型 策略，同时改善货币政策传导。 ·巴克莱：印度央行今年可能再次降息 ·巴克莱经济学家指出，印度央行今年10月可能会再次降息25个基点。他们说，较低的通胀率和关税悬 而未决的情况为再次降息打开了大门。印度央行在本月暂停了宽松周期，这是在不确定性加剧的情况下 的审慎之举。贸易风险的发展将决定政策空间，并指引印度央行在即将 ...

普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci报告表示，在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲之际，美联储主席鲍威尔可能 会寻求为未来几次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议保留最大的灵活性，并强调政策路径将取决于通胀和劳 动力市场数据。在9月17日的美联储会议之前，还将公布一份就业报告和一份CPI报告。如果通胀数据 意外大大强于预期或劳动力市场强劲反弹，那么下一次会议可能不会降息。如果8月份就业人数增幅放 缓至每月50,000人以下，且失业率上升，则可能会出现降息50个基点的偏宽松结果。 ...

美元霸权的黄昏：特朗普降息梦碎与美联储的独立危机 一场关于降息的权力游戏，正在华盛顿上演，而美元霸权的丧钟，或许已经敲响。 曾几何时，特朗普政府为了刺激经济，可谓是"八仙过海，各显神通"。财政部长贝努特高调喊话，暗示 降息可期；总统特朗普更是语出惊人，狮子大开口，要求大幅降息。然而，美联储官员深夜一盆冷水， 彻底浇灭了白宫的降息美梦。 为了推动降息，特朗普政府可谓是无所不用其极。他们先是突袭美联储大楼，祭出所谓的"审计报告"， 逼问美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普甚至将工程问题与利率问题生硬地联系起来，声称"降息1个点能省3000 亿利息！"这背后，是特朗普政府精打细算的算盘。美国国债总额高达37万亿美元，每年仅利息支出就 高达1.2万亿美元。如果利率真的降到1%，白宫每年就能省下数千亿美元，用于修边境墙、填补医保漏 洞，甚至为中期选举提供资金。 然而，美联储内部却出现了"叛变"迹象。曾经是铁杆鹰派的美联储副主席鲍曼，一反常态地支持9月启 动三次降息。她与理事沃勒在7月会议上投下反对票，逼宫鲍威尔的架势，宛如一出华尔街版的《纸牌 屋》。更令人玩味的是，鲍曼和沃勒都是由特朗普亲自任命的。 降息固然美好，但通胀问题却如影 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded after touching the 100-day moving average support, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 20, gold opened at $3,315.88 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,311.56, and then rose to a high of $3,350.21 before closing at $3,348.00, marking a daily increase of $32.12 or 0.97% [1]. - The daily trading range was $38.65, reflecting significant volatility in the market [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying interest and the exhaustion of negative factors, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential tariff increases announced by Trump [3]. - The market is currently facing uncertainty due to potential tariff hikes on steel and chips, which could reach as high as 300% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a bullish or oscillating trend above the 100-day moving average, with key support levels at $3,337 and $3,330, and resistance levels at $3,355 and $3,370 [9]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting may provide further insights, but any hawkish comments from Powell are expected to have limited impact on gold prices in the short term [5].

她分析称，尽管当前市场预期与荷兰合作银行均倾向于美联储将在9月启动降息，以应对逐渐疲软的劳 动力市场，但鲍威尔仍有可能在讲话中避免释放明确的宽松信号，转而强调通胀风险或维持政策灵活 性。这一谨慎态度或将短暂提振美元，延缓其下行趋势。弗利强调，货币政策路径仍取决于经济数据的 演变，而鲍威尔的措辞将成为短期美元走势的关键风向标。 周四（8月21日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.29，涨幅0.04%，开盘价为98.24。荷兰合作银行外汇 策略师简·弗利（Jane Foley）在最新报告中指出，若美联储主席鲍威尔在即将召开的杰克逊霍尔年会上 对降息议题表现出审慎立场，市场投机者可能迅速回补美元空头头寸，从而为美元带来阶段性支撑。 今天，美元指数短线阻力在98.40--98.45，短线重要阻力在98.55--98.60。今天美元指数短线支持在98.05- -98.10，短线重要支持在97.90--97.95。可以在98.60---98.05的区间下限买入，有效破位20个点止损，目 标在区间的上限。 ...