Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 15, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Data - Price: On December 12, it was 10720, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 205 [4] - Holdings: On December 12, it was 89834, with a daily change of 2844 and a weekly change of 62380 [4] - Trading Volume: On December 12, it was 123845, with a daily change of -31953 and a weekly change of 61026 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On December 12, it was 19180, with a daily change of -140 and a weekly change of 1860 [4] - Virtual - Real Ratio: On December 12, it was 23.42, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 15 [4] - Basis and Spread: Various basis and spread data such as cis - butyl basis, styrene - butadiene basis, etc. are provided with their daily and weekly changes [4] Group 3: BR Spot and Profit Data - Spot Price: Shandong market price was 10650 on December 12, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 weekly; different market and factory prices are presented with their changes [4] - Profit: Spot processing profit was 800 on December 12, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -54; import and export profits are also given with their changes [4] Group 4: BD Data - Spot Price: Different market and factory prices are presented with their changes [4] - Profit: Import and export profits, ethylene cracking profit, carbon four extraction profit, etc. are provided, some with incomplete data [4] Group 5: Production Profit Data - Production Profits: Data on butadiene - styrene production profit, ABS production profit, SBS production profit are given, some with incomplete data [4]

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 张晓珍 70003135 | 品种 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6476 | 6534 | -58 | -0.89% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6486 | 6558 | -72 | -1.10% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6129 | 6177 | -48 | -0.78% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6168 | 6241 | -73 | -1.17% | | | L15价差 | -10 | -24 | 14 | 58.33% | | | PP15价差 | -39 | -64 | 25 | 39.06% | | | LP01价差 | 347 | 357 | -10 | -2.80% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6080 | 6100 | -20 | -0.33% | | | 华北LDPE现货价格 | 6440 | 650 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：喜娜AI 根据提供的URL内容，其中未包含任何与期货市场相关的财经快讯信息（如贵金属、基本金属、能源与 航运、金融、农产品期货及宏观市场影响等内容），因此无法生成符合要求的期货市场快讯汇总。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 成本需求双重压制，焦炭期货弱势运行 焦煤：截至 12 月 12 日当周，供应端全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75 万吨，环比降 0.4 万吨，同比降 5.3 万吨；需求端全样本焦化厂和钢厂焦 炭日均产量合计 110.59 万吨，周环比降 0.56 万吨，同比降 2.9 万吨。本 周内，焦煤现货价格仍偏弱运行，下游焦化厂利润改善，Mysteel 的 30 家独立样本焦化厂吨焦盈利周环比改善 14 元，至 44 元/吨。整体来看， 年末焦煤产需均小幅下滑，但蒙煤进口量的持续增长对市场氛围形成压 制，叠加政策端缺乏向上驱动，焦煤期货维持弱势运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts on December 12, 2025, with notable increases in certain metals and significant declines in others [5][6][8] - The main futures contract for tin (沪锡) rose over 4%, while silver (沪银) increased by more than 3%, and polysilicon, zinc, and international copper all saw gains exceeding 2% [5][6] - Conversely, liquefied gas and coking coal experienced declines of over 4%, with red dates and coking coal down more than 3%, and glass, eggs, and PVC dropping over 2% [5][6] Group 2 - In late November 2025, the main tin contract price surged to 323,700 yuan/ton, a three-and-a-half-year high, driven by supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and expectations of macroeconomic easing [5][8] - Following the signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda on December 4, 2025, market fears regarding disruptions in African tin supply were alleviated [5][8] - Looking ahead to 2026, the tin market is expected to experience marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure, with global inventories remaining low and macroeconomic conditions supportive, leading to a forecasted trading range for the main tin contract of 280,000 to 330,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2026 [5][8]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月12日，沪锡期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至6%，报337960元/吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum market shows a bottom - up price trend. Due to transportation disruptions in Xinjiang, reduced arrivals, and traders' reluctance to sell, along with rigid downstream demand, the spot discount has been significantly absorbed. Social inventory has slightly declined, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction at the end of the year. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices. Optimism remains about future consumption, with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations and unreflected re - inflation. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the economic meeting and the realization of the pre - Spring Festival social inventory reduction expectation. Overseas liquidity risks need to be vigilant [6]. - The alumina market lacks positive factors. The domestic supply has not significantly decreased, the supply surplus pressure persists, social inventory continues to increase, and the warehouse receipt pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory and weak procurement willingness. The near - month contract is at a significant discount to the far - month contract. The cost support needs to be tested as bauxite prices remain stable and no large - scale production cuts have been triggered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,890 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 60 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 70 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, a change of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 165 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminum Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,990 yuan/ton, closed at 21,970 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 22,110 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,865 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 189,881 lots, and the holding volume was 294,576 lots [2]. 3.3 Inventory - As of December 11, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 584,000 tons, a change of - 11,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 69,410 tons, a change of 823 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 518,750 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On December 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,725 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,815 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,880 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,482 yuan/ton, closed at 2,469 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.40%, with a maximum price of 2,509 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,462 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,299 lots, and the holding volume was 257,111 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 11, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,245 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 145 yuan/ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports [3] - For sugar, the fundamental driving force is downward, but the current low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. However, the possibility of new lows cannot be ruled out [6] - For pulp, recent pulp futures prices have risen strongly due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. But the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 975, down 75 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1153, down 71 from the previous day [1] - In Pakistan, the demand of local yarn mills is weak, and the lint price is range - bound. The ginning mills are reluctant to sell high - grade inventory, and some low - grade resources offer opportunities for yarn mills to replenish stocks. The yarn mills face heavy operating pressure and squeezed profits. The 2025/26 annual spot price of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) on the 10th was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere brings short - term supply pressure, and weak global textile consumption will keep ICE US cotton under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers. Domestically, the 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase in production. With the harvest nearing completion in Xinjiang, the cotton output forecast has risen again. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton will be suppressed by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but improved spinning profits and manageable finished - product inventory limit the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate within a range. In the long - term, due to expanded downstream production capacity and increased domestic cotton consumption, and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation in the new year is not expected to be too loose. Pay attention to the changes in the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton (-1.56%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 125, up 83 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR05 + 95, up 83 from the previous day [4] - According to Williams, as of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 44. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5131 million tons, down 17.14% from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) decreased by 21.3%, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased by 8.97%, and at Paranaguá Port decreased by 47.77% [4] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the global bumper harvest suppresses the market, but the negative factors are mostly reflected in the price. There is limited short - term downward space, and no sign of a reversal in the short - to - medium term. For Zhengzhou sugar, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the import volume from July to October was large. The control of syrup has tightened, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital on the market [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,586 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+2.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 4, down 60 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,115 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 471, down 40 from the previous day [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was strong. The futures price rose, and traders raised prices to improve profits. The downstream procurement was rational, and the trading volume was limited. The prices of imported softwood pulp in some regions rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and those of imported hardwood pulp rose by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp was flat, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and overhauls. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp will be shut down temporarily. On the demand side, the October European port wood pulp inventory decreased, indicating improved demand. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is low, and the inventory in domestic ports is at a historical high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The recent strong rise in pulp futures prices is due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining B - needle warehouse receipts on the market [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Short put [6] 2. Core View of the Report After the interest rate meeting, the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut met expectations. After the 15th delivery, the spot tightness may ease. High copper prices have led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, so it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices for now [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On December 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 92,210 yuan/ton, a 0.39% change from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 92,700 yuan/ton and closed at 94,080 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 50 to a premium of 60 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan drop from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 92,400 to 92,930 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices approaching the downstream psychological threshold, market purchasing sentiment weakened, and with the year - end delivery approaching, sellers' willingness to sell increased. The premium of high - quality copper dropped from 80 yuan in the morning to 30 yuan. Non - registered copper had a large discount of 300 yuan due to scrap copper substitution. Although there may be some restocking demand on Friday, overall transaction prices will still be under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In the US job market, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the highest increase since March 2020. As of the week ending November 29, the number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.84 million, the largest single - week drop in four years. The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month to $52.8 billion, significantly lower than the market expectation of $63.3 billion, the lowest since June 2020. Exports rose 3%, reaching the second - highest level in history, while imports only increased by 0.6% [3]. - **Mine End**: On December 10, Solis Minerals Limited announced that its 100% - owned Cinto copper project in southern Peru obtained a drilling permit. To lock in high - quality drilling targets, Solis completed a series of pre - exploration work. Drilling rig entry and platform preparation will start in December 2025. Chile's Codelco's copper production in October was 111,000 tons, a 14.3% year - on - year decrease; BHP's Escondida copper mine's production in October was 120,600 tons, an 11.7% year - on - year increase; the Collahuasi copper mine's production in October was 35,000 tons, a 29.3% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: On December 11, the US CFTC adjusted the schedule for releasing position reports for the remaining time in 2025. After resuming normal operations, it will release reports in chronological order, and the first report was released on November 19 (early morning of November 20, Beijing time) [4]. - **Consumption**: In November 2025, China's domestic copper tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in November was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase from the previous month. The increase in household air - conditioner production in November was due to longer production cycles and market demand support during key nodes [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 700 tons to 165,850 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,530 tons to 31,461 tons. On December 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 163,000 tons, a change of 2,700 tons from the previous week [5]. Copper Price and Basis Data | Time | 2025 - 12 - 12 | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 12 - 05 | 2025 - 11 - 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - SMM: 1 Copper | 5 | 30 | 170 | 55 | | Premium Copper | 45 | 80 | 240 | 120 | | Flat - water Copper | - 25 | - 10 | 120 | 5 | | Wet - process Copper | - 75 | - 50 | 15 | - 55 | | Yangshan Premium | 48 | 48 | 48 | 46 | | LME (0 - 3) | 12 | 0 | 88 | - 15 | | Inventory - LME | 165,850 | 164,975 | 162,825 | 136,250 | | Inventory - SHFE | 88,905 | | 97,930 | | | Inventory - COMEX | 403,848 | 401,925 | 393,975 | 337,749 | | Warehouse Receipt - SHFE | 31,461 | 28,931 | 32,139 | 42,964 | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipt Ratio | 39.64% | 38.09% | 35.08% | 8.60% | | Arbitrage - CU2603 - CU2512 (Continuous Three - Near Month) | 110 | | 130 | 50 | | Arbitrage - CU2602 - CU2601 (Main - Near Month) | 30 | | 70 | 20 | | CU2602/AL260 | 4.20 | 4.19 | 4.12 | 4.00 | | CU2602/ZN260 | 4.01 | 3.98 | 3.98 | 3.82 | | Import Profit | - 1162 | - 946 | - 1621 | - 723 | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main) | 7.79 | | 7.95 | 7.96 | 7.99 | [24][25][26][27]

化工日报 | 2025-12-12 EG主港延续累库，负荷下降 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3599元/吨（较前一交易日变动-83元/吨，幅度-2.25%），EG华东市场现货价 3613元/吨（较前一交易日变动-55元/吨，幅度-1.50%），EG华东现货基差-15元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1104 元/吨（环比+52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为75.5万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏多 ...