Group 1: New Order - Gold's Revaluation - Gold's long-term turning points are generally marked by turning points in the US economy, particularly shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Recent geopolitical shifts and high debt levels have weakened the dollar's credibility, leading to a revaluation of gold's value as a safe haven asset [7][66]. - The current uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of inflation due to Trump's tariff policies complicates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, making it difficult to predict economic recovery in the short term [7][66]. - The disintegration and reconstruction of the international order have led to a resurgence of gold's financial and monetary attributes, suggesting that while gold may experience short-term corrections, its long-term value remains strong [7][66]. Group 2: New Economy - Copper's Value Reassessment - Copper is expected to undergo a two-fold revaluation due to long-term supply constraints and rapid growth in new economic demands, particularly in energy transition and data centers [7][66]. - The geopolitical landscape has intensified concerns over copper supply shortages, with expectations that the US may impose a 25% tariff on copper imports by the end of 2025, further enhancing copper's strategic resource status [7][66]. - The demand for copper is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a 70% increase by 2050, driven by the electrification of industries and the rise of data centers [51][62]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the industry, emphasizing that gold is finding a new pricing anchor amid international turmoil, while copper is poised for revaluation driven by supply constraints and new economic demands [7][66].

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology, the world's third-largest memory manufacturer, announced a $200 billion investment in the U.S., adding $30 billion to its previous plans, focusing on AI-related high-bandwidth memory production and expanding its facilities in Idaho and Virginia [1][3]. Investment Plans - The investment includes $50 billion allocated for R&D in the U.S. and plans for a large factory in New York [1]. - Micron aims to produce 40% of its DRAM products in the U.S. post-investment, although a specific timeline has not been disclosed [1]. Competitive Landscape - Micron faces challenges in producing cost-competitive DRAM in New York due to a lack of semiconductor expertise in the region [2]. - The company is competing with SK Hynix and Samsung, which are also expanding their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. [2]. Government Support and Incentives - Micron's investment is supported by federal tax incentives under the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit and funding from the CHIPS Act, amounting to $6.4 billion for factories in Idaho and New York [3]. - The Trump administration is expected to seek additional funding under the CHIPS Act to bolster the semiconductor industry [3]. Strategic Importance - Micron's CEO emphasized that the investment will enhance the U.S.'s technological leadership and create thousands of jobs, ensuring a domestic supply of semiconductors critical for economic and national security [3]. - NVIDIA's CEO supported Micron's investment, highlighting its significance for the AI ecosystem and the next generation of AI breakthroughs [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal, iron ore, and poly - silicon, while the top three decliners were rapeseed, TSR 20, and Chinese jujube [13][14][15]. - For coking coal, supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with short - term fluctuations [18][23]. - For crude oil, low - inventory and geopolitical concerns drive the price up, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - For lithium carbonate, supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal (up 3.8% with 1.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), iron ore (up 2.4% with 1.3% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and poly - silicon (up 2.1% with 19.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [13][15]. - The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 1.8% with 17.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), TSR 20 (down 1.2% with 5.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Chinese jujube (down 1.1% with 5.6% month - on - month increase in open interest) [14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Coking Coal (焦煤) - On July 3, coking coal increased by 3.8% to 856 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern, with short - term fluctuations predicted [18][23]. - The central conference improved market sentiment. Some coal mines in Shanxi may suspend or limit production, while others are resuming production, but the overall supply recovery is slow. Import customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is low, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal is about to be lowered [19][20][23]. - Coke output is stable with a slight decrease, and rising costs squeeze coke enterprises' profits, with an expected further decline in the operating rate. Short - term rigid demand exists, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and upstream coal mines are destocking [21][23]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On July 3, crude oil increased by 1.6% to 506.3 yuan/barrel. Low - inventory and geopolitical concerns are the triggers for the price rise, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - OPEC's production in June increased by 360,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.801 million barrels per day, with several countries including Saudi Arabia increasing production [27][29]. - The EIA inventory report shows an increase in total petroleum inventories. Also, due to the heatwave in Europe, there is an expectation of increased demand for oil - fired power generation [28][29]. 3.1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂) - On July 3, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 64080 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. - Market sentiment is positive, with good demand production schedule expectations and low warehouse receipts. Supply shows a month - on - month increase in weekly output, domestic lithium mine production grows, but imported lithium salts may decline. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan [34][37][38]. - From January to June, domestic cathode material production maintained growth. July is a traditional off - season, but demand production schedule expectations are good, and leading enterprises show signs of purchasing. Social inventories accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventories are destocked, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions at highs [35][36][38]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观新闻) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of the US President planning to visit China with a business delegation, stating no information to provide but hoping for joint efforts to promote China - US economic and trade relations [40][41]. - China's Caixin Services PMI for June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, with the prosperity level declining to the lowest since Q4 2024 [40][41]. - The US government lifted export restrictions on EDA to China, canceling some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software [40][41].

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹，关注周末 OPEC+会议。消息称伊朗暂停与国 际原子能机构合作，地缘担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看， OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消 费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较 大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹 油价企稳，库存下降，液化气反弹。地缘担忧再起，成本端油价企稳反弹； 下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均 上升。策略：短线反弹，但上方受限，反弹偏空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 现货涨价，华北基差为-64（环比+44），近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未 释放，供给压力边际缓解。LD、HD 进口窗口打开。需求淡季，下游刚需 拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等 合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产，中长期预期偏弱。策略：短期反弹思路对 待。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头反弹 出口毛利转正，低价成交略有放量，成本支撑好转，MTO 盘面利润同期 ...

Group 1: Digital Services Tax in Canada - Canada introduced a digital services tax aimed at global companies with annual revenues exceeding €750 million and Canadian digital service revenues over CAD 20 million, imposing a 3% tax on applicable revenues retroactive to 2022, projected to generate CAD 7.2 billion over five years [3] - The tax primarily targets major US tech companies such as Amazon, Google, and Meta, which are expected to be significantly impacted by this legislation [3] - Following pressure from the US, Canada announced the cancellation of the digital services tax just hours before it was set to take effect, indicating a willingness to negotiate with the US [3][4] Group 2: Hikvision's Operations in Canada - The Canadian government ordered Hikvision to cease operations, citing national security concerns based on a review under the Investment Canada Act, claiming that continued operations would harm national security [4] - Hikvision expressed strong opposition to the Canadian government's decision, arguing that the accusations lacked evidence and were influenced by geopolitical tensions rather than genuine security assessments [7] - The Canadian government's contrasting approaches towards the US and China reflect complex motivations, with economic dependence on the US influencing its decisions, while the actions against Hikvision align with US foreign policy towards China [9] Group 3: Economic and Political Implications - Canada’s economy is heavily reliant on the US market, with imports from the US totaling USD 349 billion and exports amounting to USD 413 billion, making it difficult for Canada to maintain a hardline stance against US trade threats [9] - The Canadian government may have initially sought to demonstrate strength through the digital services tax but ultimately chose to compromise to preserve overall relations with the US, which holds significant influence over Canada [9] - The differing responses to the US and China highlight the contradictions and challenges in Canada's foreign policy, raising questions about its ability to balance national interests with international relations [9]

【黄金期货最新行情】 宁证期货：美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运 货物将被征收40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。评：关说谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度 走弱，提振黄金，黄金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变， 短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 本周早些时候，金价上涨超过2%，接近每盎司3345美元，市场将注意力转移到即将发布的就业报告 上，该报告预计将显示6月份经济增加10.6万个就业岗位，这将是四个月来的最低水平。 ADPResearch周三发布的另一份数据显示，美国企业就业人数出现两年多来首次下降，促使交易员加大 了对2026年前至少两次降息的押注。劳动力市场的明显恶化可能迫使官员们最早在本月降息，尽管美联 储主席鲍威尔强调了劳动力市场的弹性，并强调了评估关税对通胀影响的"观望"态度 【机构观点】 | 7月3日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹。消息称伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，地缘 担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增 产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支 撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买 看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹偏空 油价企稳叠加化工利润改善，液化气反弹。油价重回基本面定价，短线企 稳；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：反弹偏空，可轻仓试空。 PG【4150-4300】 L 空头盘整 社会库存转为累库，现货继续下跌。华北基差为-108（环比-59），LD、 HD 进口窗口打开。装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期 上中游库存显著下滑，需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化 力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产， 中长期预期偏弱。策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 下游订单持续偏弱，基差走弱，出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual perspectives of each variety, the overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is mainly in a state of shock, with some varieties showing a tendency of shock - weakness or shock - strength. 2. Core Viewpoints - The European heatwave may boost middle - distillate and crude oil prices from an emotional and marginal demand perspective, and there is also support for oil - based chemicals [1]. - The domestic commodity market was generally supported on Wednesday. The anti - involution initiative in the photovoltaic glass and steel industries led to a significant rebound in the black sector, slightly boosting the chemical sector. However, the supply - demand situation of chemicals has not changed substantially [2]. - In general, the energy and chemical industry should be treated with a shock mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, and oil prices soared significantly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about geopolitics led to the rise in oil prices on Wednesday. The EIA inventory report showed lower Cushing inventory and diesel inventory in the United States, and the diesel crack spread reached a high of $33 per barrel. The European heatwave increased the expected demand for oil - fired power generation. Although OPEC increased production in June, it did not lead to effective inventory accumulation in the largest demand country [7]. - **Outlook**: The high point caused by geopolitics is unlikely to be reached again, but the market may continue to fluctuate while waiting for widespread inventory accumulation [7]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market may experience weak fluctuations [12]. - **Main Logic**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the market gradually returned to fundamental trading. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of liquefied gas and civil gas continues to increase, and it is the off - season for combustion. The downstream replenishment willingness is low. Although the PDH start - up rate is gradually increasing, the profit is still low, and the subsequent increase is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamental situation remains loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitics and tariffs. In the short term, the market is cautious, so PG is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs approaching the 90 - day tariff time node [12]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated, waiting for the fermentation of negative factors [10]. - **Main Logic**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated with crude oil. OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, increasing the certainty of heavy - oil supply. The supply of asphalt raw materials in China is sufficient, and the supply in South China is increasing rapidly. The demand side is not firmly supported [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to be fully realized [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the decline in natural gas prices may relieve the natural gas crisis in Egypt, reducing the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [10]. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while demand decreases. Geopolitical upgrades will only have a short - term impact on prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price declined following crude oil [11]. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand for high - sulfur substitution. Currently, it is undervalued and will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between the inland and ports, and methanol will fluctuate [20]. - **Main Logic**: On July 2, the methanol futures price rebounded. The price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The important domestic meeting boosted market sentiment. The coal price increase affected the cost of methanol production. The olefin market was weak in the short term, and the MTO profit was still low [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, relying on exports for promotion. Urea may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounded slightly in the past two days, driving better spot trading. There is still support from the end of agricultural demand and export port collection. However, the top - dressing season is coming to an end, and the demand from downstream compound fertilizer factories is limited [21]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose. With the opening of port inspections, urea enterprises are accelerating port collection, relying on exports to balance the supply - demand gap. The urea market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change in export volume [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The basis remained stable, and the units were restarting one after another. Ethylene glycol continued to fluctuate [16]. - **Main Logic**: The current low inventory of ethylene glycol supports the futures price, but the expected increase in future supply weakens the upward momentum. Therefore, it will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Outlook**: In a low - inventory pattern, the absolute value of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil was temporarily stable, and PX fluctuated with a slight upward trend [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC +'s continued production increase and concerns about global demand prospects. On the supply - demand side, some domestic PX units will be shut down for maintenance, and the focus is on whether the expected changes in the units will be realized [13]. - **Outlook**: There is a divergence between cost and supply - demand factors, and attention should be paid to crude oil risks [13]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakened, but the cost - side PX was strong, and PTA fluctuated [13]. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil prices may decline this week, providing weak support for PTA. Although there is less PTA supply and the main suppliers still intend to support the market, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, and demand is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate this week [13]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of PTA is marginally weakening, but it will follow the relatively strong performance of the cost side in the short term [13]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis declined, the processing fee increased, and the absolute value fluctuated with raw materials [16]. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber processing fee expanded again on Wednesday, and the basis declined this week. The downstream polyester yarn may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the start - up rate may decline. There are no major contradictions in the short - fiber industry [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [16]. Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually begun, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out [15]. - **Main Logic**: The weakening of the PTA basis has repaired the bottle - chip processing difference. In the short term, the price of the polyester bottle - chip market is expected to continue to fluctuate with raw material costs [18]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and there is limited room for further compression of the bottle - chip spot processing fee [18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: An important meeting boosted market sentiment, and PP fluctuated in the short term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The important meeting boosted market sentiment. The cost side was affected by oil price fluctuations, and the market was closely watching OPEC +'s production decision. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overseas, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened, and the export window has limited expansion [24]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [24]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution initiative boosted market sentiment, and plastics rebounded slightly [23]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution initiative and the meeting boosted market sentiment. Oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand situation in the United States changed. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with increased production capacity and high supply pressure [23]. - **Outlook**: The plastic 09 contract will fluctuate in the short term [23]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: During the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene fluctuated narrowly [14]. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, the decline in oil prices led to a weakening of market bullish sentiment. The spot supply - demand weakened, and the port inventory increased. The supply of styrene is returning, and the downstream demand is gradually fading, showing a trend of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the low inventory level of the styrene industry chain and the difference between pure benzene and styrene [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations with a slight downward trend [14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC fluctuated [27]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the anti - involution initiative and overseas fiscal and monetary policies improved market risk appetite. At the micro level, the long - term supply - demand situation of PVC is still under pressure, with new capacity coming on stream, the off - season for domestic demand, and limited growth in exports [27]. - **Outlook**: Although market risk appetite has improved, the supply - demand outlook for PVC is pessimistic, and the market should mainly short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine was under pressure, and caustic soda rebounded weakly [27]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, caustic soda fluctuated. The support comes from improved market risk appetite and an upward shift in the cost center. The pressure lies in the pessimistic supply - demand outlook from July to August. The production volume will increase in July, and the comprehensive cost center of caustic soda will shift upward [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations. If downstream replenishment is active, the rebound space for caustic soda will open up [28].

Market Overview - As of July 3, Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising concerns about geopolitical instability and leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for August rose by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; ICE Brent futures for September rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase [1] Key Information - In the first five months of 2025, China's crude oil imports from the Middle East accounted for 42.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.6 percentage points from the five-year average. Conversely, imports from the Asia-Pacific region rose to 15.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and up 6.3 percentage points from the five-year average. Imports from South America accounted for 10.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the five-year average [2] - Shandong independent refineries operated at a crude distillation capacity of 50.74%, down 0.74 percentage points from the previous week. Specific operations included maintenance at Hualian, while Changyi's crude distillation unit was operational, and other secondary units remained idle [2] - Ecuador's state-owned oil pipeline company OCP has preemptively closed its crude oil pipeline to construct a new bypass due to accelerated erosion issues. Meanwhile, Petroamazonas is repairing pipelines along a new route, with leakage issues under control [2] - Polish refiner Orlen has ceased purchasing Russian crude oil for its Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic, marking the end of its last contract with Rosneft [2] Production and Investment - Mexico's oil production is expected to drop to levels not seen since the late 1970s, with an average daily output of 1.62 million barrels from January to May 2024, the lowest since 1979. June exports fell to a historic low of 529,000 barrels per day due to declining production and reduced output from the Dos Bocas refinery [3] - Argentine energy company Pampa Energia announced a $426 million investment to build an oil and gas processing plant in the Vaca Muerta shale region, located in the Neuquén province, with plans for production to commence next year [3] Price Dynamics - Overnight oil price increases were primarily driven by geopolitical events and trade developments, although fundamental factors limited the extent of the price rise. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, increasing risk premiums. Additionally, a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, boosted demand expectations. However, OPEC+ production increases have been fully priced in, and U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, below the healthy summer threshold of 9 million barrels, raising concerns about consumption fatigue [4] Outlook - The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with WTI resistance levels at [67,68], Brent pressure at [69,70], and SC at [510,520]. Options trading may capture volatility opportunities, for reference only [5]