Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, precious metals are expected to maintain a high - level, volatile, and bullish trend. The core drivers are the Fed's policy path, geopolitical risks, and physical demand support. Gold jewelry demand may recover during the traditional consumption peak season in October, and investors' willingness to allocate gold and related products may increase. The prices of gold and silver may rise if the Fed continues to send loose signals or geopolitical conflicts escalate; otherwise, strong US economic data and rising inflation may suppress their performance. Technically, the core fluctuation range of COMEX gold is 3550 - 4000 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 810 - 900 yuan per gram for Shanghai gold), and that of silver is 42 - 50 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 9800 - 11800 yuan per kilogram for Shanghai silver). [4][76] Summary of Relevant Chapters 1. Review of the Futures Market - **Price Trends of Gold and Silver**: In Q3 2025, the precious metals market first fluctuated and then soared. From July to August, prices consolidated at the bottom, and in September, they rose sharply due to the Fed's interest rate cut, rising risk - aversion, and capital inflows. As of September 27, New York gold reached a high of 3824.6 US dollars per ounce and closed at 3789.8 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai gold hit a record high of 865.28 yuan per gram and closed at 862.50 yuan per gram. New York silver broke through 45 US dollars per ounce, reaching a high of 46.945 US dollars per ounce and closing at 46.365 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai silver exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a high of 10974 yuan per kilogram and closing at 10936 yuan per kilogram. Since September, the cumulative increase of silver has exceeded 10%. [3][7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The current gold - silver ratio is about 82 (domestic) and 85 (overseas), higher than the historical average, indicating that silver is undervalued and has substantial room for a catch - up. Historically, a high gold - silver ratio is followed by silver's catch - up, and the recent strong performance of silver reflects this repair logic. [14] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed's September Meeting**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. Most officials expect two more 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, but there are differences among officials. The removal of Fed governor Cook by President Trump has added political and legal uncertainties to the Fed's decision - making. [20][21] - **Geopolitical Risks**: In Q3, the Middle East conflict intensified, and the Israel - Houthi armed conflict affected trade. The Russia - Ukraine conflict entered a new stage, with the US changing its stance and increasing military aid to Ukraine, and the confrontation between the two sides becoming more entrenched. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion and may drive up the prices of precious metals. [23][26] - **Inflation**: In August, US PPI data showed a slowdown in inflation, while CPI data indicated that inflation was still controllable. PPI's slowdown provided room for the Fed to cut interest rates, and CPI's stability reduced the risk of policy reversal. [28][29] - **US Economic Signals**: The Q2 2025 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, mainly driven by consumer spending and net exports. However, the labor market was weak, with August's non - farm payrolls falling far short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and employment structure deteriorating. In the short term, weak employment data increased the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts; in the long term, it may support precious metals. The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, while the non - manufacturing PMI expanded. The 8 - month PCE price index was in line with expectations, and the market expected further rate cuts by the Fed. [31][34][36] - **Real Interest Rates and the US Dollar Index**: In Q3 2025, the 10 - year real interest rate and inflation expectations declined, and the US dollar index fell and is now fluctuating around 97. [51][52] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals - **Gold**: In Q2 2025, the global gold market had both supply and demand increasing, with the price hitting a record high. Supply totaled 1,249 tons, with mined gold production reaching a quarterly record high and recycled gold supply increasing. Investment demand was the core driver, with gold ETFs having strong inflows for two consecutive quarters, and central bank gold purchases supporting the market. High prices led to a decline in jewelry and technology gold demand. [54] - **Silver**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a slight decline in total demand but a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a supply - demand gap. In 2024, silver supply increased moderately, and demand was structurally differentiated, with industrial demand hitting a record high. In 2025, total supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, total demand to drop slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, and the supply - demand gap to reach 117.6 million ounces. [58][59] 4. Analysis of Positions, Inventories, and Seasonality - **ETF Positions**: In August 2025, global gold ETFs had inflows for the third consecutive month, with Western markets leading. North America had the largest inflow, followed by Europe, while Asia had outflows. [62] - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rise in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold, while the non - commercial net long position of silver futures decreased, suggesting a rise in the market's bearish sentiment towards silver. [69] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of September 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased compared to the end of Q2 2025, while SHFE gold inventory increased and silver inventory decreased. [72]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened higher on September 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.49%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq down 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.72% [2] Stock Performance - Major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones at 46,174.23 (+226.91, +0.49%), S&P 500 at 6,622.17 (+17.45, +0.26%), and Nasdaq at 22,380.21 (-4.49, -0.02%) [3] - Chinese concept stocks experienced a downturn, with notable declines: Kingsoft Cloud down over 11%, Daqo New Energy down over 8%, Bilibili down over 5%, and NIO down over 6% [3] Technology Giants - Among the tech giants, Tesla rose by 0.43% to $425.215, Amazon increased by 0.37% to $218.960, while Nvidia fell by 0.90% to $176.091 [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, reaching $3,780 per ounce, with a rise of approximately 0.8% [6] - Deutsche Bank noted that gold prices are driven by risk aversion, with predictions of gold potentially reaching $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026 under various scenarios [9] - Analysts suggest that despite recent price increases, gold remains a favorable long-term investment due to potential monetary policy changes and ongoing market risks [9]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened higher on September 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.49% and the S&P 500 up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.72%, indicating a general pullback in Chinese concept stocks [2] Key Stock Movements - Major Chinese concept stocks saw significant declines, with Kingsoft Cloud down over 11%, Daqo New Energy down more than 8%, Bilibili down over 5%, and NIO down over 6% [2] - Among the tech giants, Tesla rose by 0.43%, Amazon by 0.37%, while Nvidia fell by 0.9% [3] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices surged, reaching approximately $3,780 per ounce, with a rise of about 0.8%. By 23:00, London gold was up 0.79% at $3,778.475 per ounce, and silver increased by over 1% [3] - Deutsche Bank noted that gold prices reached record highs due to heightened risk aversion among investors, who are concerned about significant downside risks in the stock market [5] - Goldman Sachs projected that gold prices could soar to $4,000 per ounce by 2026 under baseline scenarios, and potentially reach $4,500 per ounce in tail risk scenarios. If just 1% of U.S. Treasury holdings were to flow into gold, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [5] Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts from Huatai Securities indicated that despite short-term pressures from interest rate cuts, the long-term trend for gold prices remains bullish due to potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy after the current Fed Chair's term ends [5]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market showed mixed trends on September 25, with gold prices consolidating at high levels while silver prices surged significantly [1][2] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3780.5 per ounce, up $12 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - Positive U.S. economic data released on the same day, including a revised annualized GDP growth rate of 3.8% for Q2, exerted pressure on gold prices as the U.S. dollar strengthened [1][2] Group 2 - The silver futures for December delivery rose by $1.355, closing at $45.470 per ounce, marking a 3.07% increase, as the gold price faced short-term pressure [2] - The overall expectation for policy easing remains unchanged, contributing to a risk-averse sentiment and driving demand for precious metals [2] - The labor market data, including initial jobless claims at 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000, indicates resilience in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market showed mixed trends on September 25, with gold prices consolidating at high levels while silver prices surged significantly [1] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3780.5 per ounce, up $12 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - Positive U.S. economic data released on the same day boosted the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices, as the dollar index rose by 0.7% to close at 98.554 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised significantly upward to 3.8%, contrary to analysts' expectations of no revision [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000, indicating a resilient labor market [1] - The overall expectation for policy easing remains unchanged, with safe-haven sentiment and bullish funds driving demand for precious metals [2] Group 3 - The December silver futures price increased by $1.355, closing at $45.470 per ounce, marking a 3.07% rise [2] - The short-term pressure on gold prices allowed silver to continue its upward trend and further correct the gold-silver ratio [2]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market showed mixed trends on September 25, with gold prices consolidating at high levels while silver prices surged significantly [1] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3780.5 per ounce, up $12 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - The U.S. economic data released on the same day exceeded expectations, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index rising by 0.7% to 98.554 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was significantly revised up to 3.8%, driven by strong consumption and a slowdown in imports, contrary to analysts' expectations of no revision [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [1] - The overall expectation for policy easing remains unchanged, with safe-haven sentiment and bullish funds driving demand for precious metals, allowing silver to continue its upward trend [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a continuous rise, approaching the 98 mark but ultimately closing at 97.86, up 0.66% [2][3] - Spot gold fell from historical highs, hitting a low of $3717.52, down $60 from the daily high, and closed at $3735.89, down 0.75% [2][3] - Spot silver also declined, closing at $43.89, down 0.3% [2][3] Economic Insights - US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed support for significant interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points, which strengthened market expectations for a loosening cycle [3] - Diverging opinions within the Federal Reserve were noted, with some members warning against excessive rate cuts while others supported further easing due to slowing economic growth and low inflation [3] Trade Relations - The US and EU reached an agreement on auto tariffs, but the US initiated a 232 investigation into medical devices, indicating ongoing trade friction [3] - The Kremlin criticized Trump's attempts to raise global energy prices, while the restoration of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline and the EU's plan to increase tariffs on Russian oil imports heightened energy and geopolitical tensions [3] Trading Strategy - The interplay of easing expectations and geopolitical risks provides support for gold and silver, but internal Fed disagreements and evolving trade situations may lead to volatility [4] - Key technical levels for gold are noted, with support around $3700 and resistance near $3900, while silver support is at $43 and target at $45 [4] - A strategy of accumulating positions on dips is recommended, with caution advised against chasing prices and managing positions carefully [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases amid high volatility, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut not leading to significant gains in silver prices. The dollar index rose approximately 0.65%, reaching a near two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [1] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note also increased, enhancing the attractiveness of the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including Trump's peace proposal for Gaza and discussions between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers regarding the Ukraine crisis, have reduced market risk aversion [1] Federal Reserve Policy Signals - The cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Powell, has heightened market caution. Powell emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation risks with a slowing job market, without providing new clues on future interest rate directions, interpreted as a conservative stance on further easing [3] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December. However, there are notable internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding aggressive rate cuts, with some warning against premature easing based on temporary inflation assumptions [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Market Expectations - The market is focused on two key U.S. economic data releases that will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction and directly impact gold prices. The weekly initial jobless claims data is expected to reveal the latest employment market dynamics, with strong data potentially reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday. Higher-than-expected PCE data could validate Powell's cautious approach, while lower inflation could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [4] Market Trends and Strategies - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support and resistance trading. The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend [7] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of the trading range, with support at 43.53. Caution is advised in trading due to reduced market activity [7] Global Financial Market Dynamics - The precious metals market continues to present investment opportunities, with investors encouraged to utilize trading platforms for real-time market updates and to seize profit opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international silver market is experiencing a bearish trend due to reduced geopolitical tensions and positive diplomatic developments, leading to a decline in safe-haven demand for silver [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Recent diplomatic efforts, including Trump's proposal for a peace plan in Gaza, have eased market fears, contributing to a drop in silver prices [3]. - The meeting between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers in New York aimed at seeking a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis has also contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment [3]. - Trump's shift in rhetoric regarding Ukraine, from a dismissive stance to a more supportive one, is seen as a strategy to pressure Putin, further alleviating tensions [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - As of September 25, international silver is trading at approximately $43.79 per ounce, down 0.23% from the previous day, with a daily high of $43.98 and a low of $43.76 [1]. - The silver market opened at $44.013, experienced a drop to $43.662, and then rallied to a high of $44.309 before closing at $43.895, indicating volatility [5]. - Key support levels for silver are identified at $43.65 and $43.35, while resistance levels are noted at $44.40 and $44.80 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing slight fluctuations, currently trading around 148.65, down approximately 0.16%, following a period of risk aversion in the financial markets and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The release of the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes has increased market confidence in the yen, although the Federal Reserve's cautious approach continues to support the dollar [3] - The market is awaiting the final GDP data for the second quarter from the U.S., which could exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate if any signs of economic weakness are detected [3] Group 2: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - Key points from the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate that members discussed future monetary policy directions, noting that trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. have reduced uncertainty, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariffs on the economy and prices [4] - Some members emphasized the need to evaluate the impact of the interest rate hike from January this year [5] - All members agreed that if economic and price trends align with expectations, the Bank of Japan should continue to pursue interest rate hikes [6] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve's Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding further policy easing, indicating that the Fed will balance high inflation and a weak job market when making future rate decisions [8] - Financial markets predict potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in the remaining meetings of this year and in the first quarter of 2026, based on the Fed's guidance from last week's meeting [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Exchange Rate - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently in an adjustment phase after a strong upward trend, with expectations of a continuation of the upward movement post-adjustment [10] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midpoint, indicating a bullish bias for this currency pair [10] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching the zero line, suggesting that the USD/JPY may remain in an adjustment state in the short term [12]