Market Overview - The market experienced a significant reversal on July 4, with a notable intraday high of 35 points for the Shanghai index and 0.7 for Shenzhen, but closed with Shenzhen in the red and Shanghai up only 11 points, primarily driven by bank stocks [1][4]. Reasons for Market Surge - The surge was influenced by the recent performance of US stocks reaching historical highs, creating positive sentiment that could translate to the domestic market [2]. - The revival of stablecoins also contributed to the upward movement, indicating a warming sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector [3]. - Speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by banks, with discussions about the implications of rates dropping to zero, led to increased interest in bank stocks as an investment alternative [3][4]. Reasons for Market Decline - The market's decline was attributed to a lack of follow-through buying after the initial surge, as many investors were cautious due to the underlying fundamentals not supporting a sustained rally [4][5]. - A significant number of stocks, approximately 3,900, declined during the day, indicating a broader market weakness despite the initial gains [5]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable with a potential upward movement towards 3,800 points, driven by low interest rates making stocks more attractive than bank deposits [6]. - Certain sectors, such as PCB, are anticipated to attract investment due to their strong earnings potential, while stablecoins are seen as a strategic long-term investment opportunity [7]. - The likelihood of breaking through the 3,500-point level in July is considered high, with current levels around 3,472 [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is expected to grow explosively from a market cap of $3.95 billion in 2019 to $230.7 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 97.0% [11][12] - USDT and USDC dominate the market, holding approximately 86.8% of the total market share, with USDT projected to reach a market cap of $150.3 billion by 2025 and USDC expected to grow to $60.8 billion [11][12] - Hong Kong has established a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which includes licensing, full reserves, timely redemption, strict auditing, and anti-money laundering (AML) measures [17][20] - The introduction of a stablecoin sandbox by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) allows institutions to test their operational plans in a controlled environment [21] Summary by Sections Mainstream Stablecoin Mechanisms and Market Size - USDT and USDC are the two main stablecoins in the U.S., with market shares of 61.3% and 25.5% respectively [8][10] - The market cap of USDT is expected to reach $150.3 billion by 2025, while USDC is projected to grow to $60.8 billion, benefiting from its transparency in reserves [11][12] Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation Framework - The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, 2024, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which includes full backing by liquid assets and annual audits for issuers with a market cap over $50 billion [17][18] - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance was enacted on May 30, 2025, focusing on licensing, reserve management, and compliance with AML and counter-terrorism financing (CFT) regulations [20] Potential for RMB Internationalization - The HKMA's stablecoin sandbox allows for testing in various applications, including payments and supply chain management [21] - Stablecoins offer advantages in cross-border payments, such as low costs and fast transaction speeds, which could enhance the international use of the RMB [25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The cross-border payment sector has seen a collective surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by the increasing relevance of cross-border payment solutions and digital currency initiatives in China [1][3][4][7]. Company Summaries - **Jida Zhengyuan (003029.SZ)**: Latest price at 26.16 yuan (+10.01% limit up). The company has financial-grade certification products applied in the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS), collaborating with the central bank and six major state-owned banks [1]. - **Hailian Jinhui (002537.SZ)**: Latest price at 9.47 yuan (+9.99% limit up). It holds both cross-border RMB/foreign currency payment licenses and Hong Kong MSO licenses, serving over 200 countries. The business highlights include supporting 15 currencies across 8 major scenarios such as airline tickets and study abroad [3]. - **Youbo Xun (300531.SZ)**: Latest price at 21.14 yuan (+19.98% limit up). The company has seen a surge in overseas revenue from smart payment terminals and has participated in the design of digital RMB cross-border scenarios, with notable breakthroughs in the Russian market [4]. - **ST Rindong (002647.SZ)**: Latest price at 5.87 yuan (+5.01%). Its subsidiary, Heli Bao, holds cross-border RMB payment records, with expectations of turning losses into profits and lifting the company’s delisting risk [5]. - **Sifang Jingchuang (300468.SZ)**: Latest price at 47.39 yuan (+19.97% limit up). The company is deeply involved in the central bank's "Multilateral Digital Currency Bridge" project, with successful cross-border payment technology cases implemented in Hong Kong [7]. - **Lakara (300773.SZ)**: Latest price at 31.90 yuan (+13.04%). As a fully qualified payment institution, it has a cross-border network covering over 100 countries, with scarce qualifications registered with the foreign exchange administration [9]. - **Advanced Shuton (300541.SZ)**: Latest price at 15.79 yuan (+12.87%). The company provides CIPS interface solutions for commercial banks, focusing on transaction and clearing security control across the entire chain [11]. - **Huafeng Superfiber (300180.SZ)**: Latest price at 8.77 yuan (+9.08%). Its subsidiary, Weifutong, has delivered an overseas digital RMB cross-border system and is exploring cooperation models with CIPS [13].

7月1日晚，复旦大学经济学院举办"稳定币与国际金融大变局"线上研讨会。 周光友通过总结学术研究的最新进展，指出"稳定币的核心不是币值，而是制度性控制权的再分配机 制。" 周光友强调，稳定币的兴起不仅代表了一种新型货币形式的崛起，更是对现有货币体系的一次重大挑 战。人民币国际化想要突破现有约束，应该加快构建自己的数字化通道和制度性框架，主动塑造全球货 币格局，以应对未来复杂多变的国际金融环境。 在此基础上，周光友建议，应推动人民币锚定型稳定币的发行，例如在上海自贸区或大湾区等尝试发行 一些稳定币。其次，需构建数字人民币的跨境制度化框架，深化多边数字货币桥项目合作，提高跨境清 算效率并降低成本。此外，还应构建以人民币计价的链上资产市场，支持绿色债券、碳信用等数字资产 的发行，进一步提升人民币的国际竞争力。最后，积极参与全球稳定币规则制定，争取更多话语权。 以下为周光友发言实录（已经发言人审定）： 各位老师、各位朋友，大家晚上好！很高兴有机会和大家分享我对稳定币的一些思考。 会上，复旦大学数字金融研究中心主任周光友指出，稳定币的兴起不仅代表了一种新型货币形式的崛 起，更是对现有货币体系的一次重大挑战。应推动人民币锚 ...

Group 1: EDA Software Market and Regulations - The U.S. Department of Commerce has lifted the requirement for Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens to apply for government licenses when conducting business in China, following a previous ban imposed on May 23, 2025 [1] - By 2024, the global market shares for these EDA companies are projected to be 31%, 30%, and 13% respectively [1] - The lifting of the ban is linked to a framework established on June 27, 2025, where China agreed to review export applications for controlled items, leading to the U.S. canceling corresponding restrictions [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements and Strategic Importance - Rare earth elements consist of 17 metals and are crucial for over 200 commercial, high-tech, and military products, with China dominating the heavy rare earth separation sector [3][5] - China controls approximately 80% of the global rare earth refining capacity and produces 99% of the world's heavy rare earth elements [5] - The strategic value of rare earths has led China to implement export controls on key materials, which are essential for various industries [3][5] Group 3: U.S. Rare Earth Supply Chain Challenges - The U.S. has historically relied on outsourcing for rare earth production, leading to a significant dependency on China [6][7] - Recent U.S. initiatives aim to rebuild the domestic rare earth supply chain, with an estimated cost in the thousands of billions [7] - The U.S. Department of Defense has set a goal to establish a domestic supply chain for rare earths by 2027, covering all critical nodes from mining to magnet manufacturing [7] Group 4: Global Competition and Alternatives - Countries are investing resources to find alternatives to Chinese rare earths, but the transition will take years [9] - The EU has announced new mineral projects to diversify raw material sources, including rare earths, but faces environmental concerns and lengthy approval processes [9] - The trend of nationalizing key mineral resources is emerging in South America and Africa, as governments seek to maintain control over their mineral wealth [9]

Core Viewpoint - Newland is actively repurchasing shares and has shown strong financial performance, indicating confidence in its future prospects and commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][2][5]. Share Repurchase and Market Confidence - As of June 30, Newland has repurchased 7.5274 million shares, accounting for 0.73% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 188 million yuan [1][2]. - The company announced a new share repurchase plan with a total fund of no less than 350 million yuan and no more than 700 million yuan, to be executed within 12 months from the approval date [2][3]. - Newland's stock price has shown a strong upward trend, closing at 31.73 yuan per share on July 3, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Newland achieved total revenue of 7.745 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.92%, and a net profit of 311 million yuan, up 25.16%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [5][6]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached 38.95%, the highest in nearly nine years for the same period [6]. Business Strategy and Global Expansion - Newland is focusing on global expansion, particularly in the smart terminal sector, with seven global Industry 4.0 manufacturing bases and a robust supply chain management system [7]. - The company is also enhancing its AI capabilities to support the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, aiming to become a leading provider of offline digital business services globally [7][8]. - Newland has established NovaPay US Inc. to facilitate cross-border payment services, having obtained the MSB license from the U.S. Treasury Department's FinCEN [8]. Research and Development - Newland has consistently invested over 600 million yuan annually in R&D from 2019 to 2024, with 2024's investment amounting to 664 million yuan, representing 8.58% of total revenue [9].

Core Viewpoint - The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins is being driven by new technologies such as blockchain and distributed ledgers, presenting both opportunities and regulatory challenges for financial systems [1] Group 1: Offshore and Onshore RMB Business - Offshore RMB business is primarily conducted in markets outside of China, with Hong Kong as a central hub, while onshore RMB business reflects a dual characteristic of capital flow under specific conditions [1] - There is a growing consensus on the need to pilot offshore RMB stablecoins in Hong Kong before exploring domestic markets, particularly in free trade zones [1] Group 2: Development Models for RMB Stablecoins - A proposed model for domestic offshore RMB stablecoins (CNY Coin, CNYC) involves establishing a stablecoin issuance institution in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, leveraging the experience of digital RMB operators [3] - Another model suggests that digital RMB operators could directly mint and operate RMB stablecoins in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, ensuring compliance during the issuance process [4] Group 3: Requirements for RMB Stablecoins - RMB stablecoins must have sufficient asset reserves, including a proportion of digital RMB, to align with central bank digital currency (CBDC) reforms [5] - Issuers of RMB stablecoins should establish robust compliance mechanisms, including risk identification and asset segregation, while expanding application scenarios [5] Group 4: Offshore RMB Stablecoins - For offshore RMB stablecoins (CNH Coin, CNHC), a collaborative issuance model involving both domestic and foreign institutions in Hong Kong is proposed, adhering to local regulations [6] - The CNHC aims to enhance Hong Kong's role in the internationalization of the RMB and facilitate compliance in blockchain financial activities [7] Group 5: Regulatory Cooperation and Future Directions - Continuous cooperation between regulatory bodies and RMB stablecoin issuers is essential to monitor and prevent illegal activities within the blockchain ecosystem [7] - The exploration of RMB stablecoins should be cautious and gradual, with an emphasis on developing relevant legal frameworks to strengthen China's position in the global stablecoin landscape [7]

哈喽哇！大家今天好呀，我是喵喵，一个喜欢旅游，喜欢时政的单身喵! 美国人搞关税大棒，一看就是想逼我们吃亏。 他们自以为加税一升，中国货就贵了，大家就不买了。 算计得挺好，就是没看见那条"孙子兵法"的背后手。 你以为关税能吓着中国？不，咱们早就有对策了。 有一对美国夫妻。他们拿着手机，头一次去中国旅游，满心期待地计划着在中国买个华为手机。 老头在手机里一翻价钱，脸上露出笑容，说："我们如果飞到中国，买两部手机的钱差不多能省下机票了。" 你能想象吗？一趟飞机票，给他们带来了多少实际利益。 中国没什么直接威胁，反而让美国的消费者把自己"抢"到中国来。 美国本想着把中国商品挡在门外，却发现他们自己反而帮中国打开了大门。 再说了，退税政策这招，真是点睛之笔。 外国人消费满500块就能退税，这不就是主动把钱送到他们口袋里？而且这笔钱，退的不是美金，是人民币。 不就是给人民币走向国际化打开了另一扇门吗？ 我甚至开始怀疑，美国人可能真没意识到，自己在帮中国做生意，帮人民币铺路。 你看，现在的美国人买手机不再光顾美国超市，而是直飞中国，顺便旅游一圈。 不仅能买到便宜货，还能顺便度个假。 明明在美国超市买个手机，价格就高了不少， ...

煤化工、氧化铝等行业的治理思路则有所不同，主要通过遏制产能盲目扩张来实现控制目标。相关部门 将对新增产能项目进行科学论证，防止低水平重复建设，避免进一步加剧产能过剩局面。 加速整治"内卷式"竞争， 炼油钢铁等六大行业进行分类调控 国家发改委近期表态，针对"内卷式"竞争的整治政策正在加速推进。据悉，分行业化解产业结构性矛盾 的具体措施有望尽快落地，涉及炼油、钢铁、煤化工、氧化铝、新能源汽车、光伏等多个重点领域。 不同行业将采取差异化的整治手段。炼油、钢铁等传统产能过剩行业，政策重点聚焦化解存量过剩产 能，通过淘汰落后产能实现产业优化升级。这些行业长期面临产能利用率偏低的困扰，亟须通过结构性 调整提升整体效率。 《方案》提出，在提高投资促进水平方面，山东省将精心打造以跨国公司领导人青岛峰会、儒商大会、 港澳山东周、新加坡山东周等为支撑的重大活动矩阵，提升国际影响力；聚焦欧洲、新加坡、日韩、香 港等主要投资来源地，用好"投资中国"、进博会等国家级平台，实施精准靶向招商；深化与央企合作， 一体推进利润再投资、跨国股权并购、新能源和金融领域引资等创新利用外资方式，全力稳住外资基本 盘。 在增强开放平台效能等方面，山东省 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-07-03 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...