意见领袖 |王小龙 从长周期看，我国银行业净息差经历了两轮下降，分别是2015-2017年一季度和2019年至今，这两个时 间节点值得深入研究。 信贷需求减弱有深层次背景，包括人口红利和人口总数见顶等因素，需求减弱呈现从个人贷款到小企业 再到大企业的传导路径。 当前中小银行面临的压力相对更大，农商行净息差下降最为显著。银行业增量客户增长见顶背景下，大 行下沉对中小银行冲击明显，低利率环境下内卷式竞争加剧。 应对的核心在于战略定力，需要在规模、质量、效益之间做出合理选择，中小银行应立足差异化发展， 通过联合体方式克服规模和范围不经济难题。 ——王小龙 浙江省政协经济委员会副主任、浙江农村商业联合银行原董事长 * 本文为作者在2025年7月6日的CF40双周内部研讨会第458期"低利率、信贷需求与银行业挑战"上所做 的主题演讲，经作者审核。 中国银行业进入低息差低利率时代 净息差是规模、质量、效益不可能三角的核心问题，是当前银行业面临信贷需求不足和低利率环境背景 下生存发展的焦点所在。 从长周期视角观察，近15年来，我国银行业净息差经历了两轮明显的下行周期。第一轮是2015年至2017 年一季度，第二轮是2019 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that insurance companies are increasingly investing in the stock market due to low interest rates and the need for higher returns, shifting from real estate investments to equities [1][2] - Insurance funds, which were initially restricted to fixed-income products, have now become more active in the stock market, with significant investments in equities and ETFs [1] - The trend of insurance capital frequently taking significant stakes in listed companies reflects a shift towards long-term investment strategies focused on high dividend-yielding companies [2][3] Group 2 - In 2023, insurance capital made 9 stake acquisitions in 8 listed companies, which increased to 20 acquisitions in 18 companies in 2024, and 21 acquisitions in 17 companies in the first half of 2025 [2] - The amount of capital used for these acquisitions has significantly increased, with China Pacific Insurance investing 8.66 billion HKD in Guangda Environment and Ping An Life investing over 583 billion HKD in China Merchants Bank [2] - The focus of insurance capital has shifted towards H-shares of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong, driven by the AH price difference and the characteristics of the H-share market that favor large capital investments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment is creating a favorable condition for stable free cash flow, which is becoming the financial foundation for a long-term bull market in A-shares [1] Group 1: Economic Environment and Market Dynamics - The shift in economic operation models is driving a change in stock market pricing logic towards the accumulation of cash flow [1] - The potential return of strong physical re-inflation makes the growth attributes of free cash flow promising [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Leading consumer companies are expected to benefit from increased concentration and possess stronger free cash flow generation capabilities than the industry average [1] - Cyclical resource products are likely to benefit from supply contraction and cash flow recovery due to anti-involution policies [1] - Free cash flow assets may become an important allocation direction in the second half of the market, supported by low interest rates and demand-stimulating policies [1] Group 3: Cash Flow ETF - The cash flow ETF (159399) tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (888888), which selects listed companies with high free cash flow yield across various industries [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the Chinese market that have strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiated Link A (023919) and Link C (023920) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of June 2025, affected by factors such as high cumulative gains, stock market diversion, fundamental pressure, mid - year profit - taking, and rising interest rates, REITs have started to correct. Although there are short - term fluctuations and increasing disturbance factors in the second half of the year, it does not change the long - term allocation value of REITs. Attention should be paid to sectors with stable fundamentals such as affordable rental housing, consumption, and municipal environmental protection [1][10][17]. - From July 18th to July 25th, 2025, due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market corrected, and the yields of credit bonds increased across the board. The net financing of corporate credit bonds decreased, while that of financial credit bonds increased significantly. In secondary trading, medium - and short - duration bonds were actively traded, and the trading of long - duration bonds increased slightly [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit Hotspots: Public Offering REITs Correction, Fundamentals Continuing from the First - Quarter Report - The public offering REITs total return index has fallen by 3.31% since June 20th, 2025, and has returned to the level at the end of May 2025. The upward trend in the first half of the year was mainly due to the low - interest - rate environment and capital under - allocation. Since the end of June 2025, it has started to correct [10]. - The fundamentals in the second - quarter report continued the trend of the first - quarter report. Affordable rental housing had stable performance; consumption was generally stable but more volatile; industrial parks continued to face pressure; warehousing and logistics performed better than industrial parks; highways were greatly affected by road network diversion; municipal environmental protection was generally stable; and the energy sector was highly differentiated [13][14][19]. - In the short term, projects with weak fundamentals face greater pressure due to interest - rate adjustments. In the second half of the year, although capital under - allocation will continue, disturbance factors increase. However, it does not change the long - term allocation value of REITs [17]. Market Review: Stock - Bond Seesaw Leads to Bond Market Correction, Credit Bond Yields Rising Across the Board - From July 18th to July 25th, 2025, due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the interest - rate bonds corrected across the board, and the yields of credit bonds also increased across the board. The yields of medium - and short - term notes and urban investment bonds in the medium - and short - ends increased by about 10BP, and the spreads of 1 - 3Y varieties increased by about 4BP. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally increased significantly, with the 3 - 10Y varieties increasing by about 12BP [3]. - Last week, the buying demand was still strong. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 16.847 billion yuan, while funds had a net sale of 26.377 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 330.1 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.17%. The median spreads of public bonds of AAA - rated entities in various industries increased by 3 - 6BP across the board last week. The median spreads of urban investment bonds in most provinces increased, with Inner Mongolia's spreads increasing by more than 10BP [3]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Declines, Financial Credit Bonds Significantly Increase - From July 21st to July 25th, 2025, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 324 billion yuan, a 15% month - on - month increase; financial credit bonds issued a total of 228.3 billion yuan, a 128% month - on - month increase. The net financing of corporate credit bonds was 28.1 billion yuan, a 39% month - on - month decrease, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 26.5 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 56.6 billion yuan. The net financing of financial credit bonds was 207.1 billion yuan [4]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, the average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes showed mixed trends, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [4]. Secondary Trading: Medium - and Short - Duration Bonds Actively Traded, Long - Duration Bonds Slightly Increasing - The actively traded entities are mainly medium - and high - grade, medium - and short - term, central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bonds' active trading entities are divided into two types: mainstream high - grade platforms in economically strong provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong, and core main platforms in relatively high - spread areas of large economic provinces (Shandong, Sichuan, Hunan, etc.). Real - estate bonds' active trading entities are still mainly AAA - rated, with most trading terms within 1 - 3 years. Private - enterprise bonds' active trading entities are also mainly AAA - rated, with most trading terms in the medium - and short - term [5]. - Among actively traded urban investment bonds, the proportion of bonds with a term of more than 5 years in trading volume was 4%, a slight increase from the previous week (3%) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates in China, with a three-year fixed deposit rate falling below 2%, contrasts with a high household savings rate of approximately 43% in 2024, indicating a strong inclination towards risk-averse investment strategies among residents [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Savings - The current household savings in China has risen to 162.02 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in savings despite lower interest rates [1]. - The deposit interest rates have decreased significantly over the past decade, with one-year and three-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 0.95% and 1.25%, respectively, leading to reduced interest income compared to 2014 [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In the current low-interest-rate environment, managing idle funds requires a shift from merely saving to seeking more competitive investment returns, particularly in the bond market [2][3]. - Pure bond funds are highlighted as a suitable investment option for idle cash, offering better returns compared to fixed deposits, with a one-year, two-year, and three-year growth of 2.69%, 6.56%, and 9.53% respectively [3]. Group 3: Risk and Volatility - While pure bond funds present higher potential returns, they also carry slightly higher volatility compared to fixed deposits, yet they remain a relatively low-risk investment option [3][5]. - Historical data shows that the annualized volatility of pure bond funds is significantly lower than that of mixed bond and equity funds, aligning well with the risk preferences of conservative investors [5]. Group 4: Liquidity and Accessibility - Liquidity is a crucial factor for managing idle funds, with fixed deposits imposing penalties for early withdrawals, while pure bond funds offer higher transaction efficiency and quicker access to funds [6]. - The trading efficiency of pure bond funds allows for same-day transactions, enhancing the ability for investors to manage their cash effectively [6]. Group 5: Fund Performance - Changcheng Fund's short-term bond fund has demonstrated strong performance, achieving positive returns for five consecutive years, with notable annual returns of 5.51% and 4.14% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [7]. - The Changcheng Xinli 30-day fund, designed for investors with short-term cash management needs, has also shown competitive returns, ranking 9th among 165 similar funds [8]. Group 6: Index Bond Funds - The rise of index bond funds is noted, offering low fees, high efficiency, and good liquidity, catering to investors looking to quickly adapt to bond market trends [9]. - The performance of index bond funds has been strong, with the Changcheng Zhongdai 1-3 year government bond fund achieving a one-year return of 2.40%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investing in bank sector ETFs is an ideal starting point for investors in a low interest rate environment, providing a combination of high dividends, low valuations, and solid capital support [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Choosing Bank Sector ETFs - Reason 1: High dividend yield offers stable cash flow and competitive advantage in a low interest rate environment. The current dynamic dividend yield of the bank sector is approximately 4%, significantly higher than the yield of ten-year government bonds, making it attractive for long-term institutional investors and wealth management [2]. - Reason 2: Low valuations and defensive characteristics provide a safety margin and potential for valuation recovery. The current price-to-book ratio of the bank sector is only 0.74, one of the lowest among major sectors, while the return on equity ranks favorably. This creates a dual advantage of high safety margin and potential for long-term valuation recovery [3][5]. - Reason 3: Policy and capital support strengthen medium to long-term strategic opportunities. The banking sector benefits from regulatory measures to alleviate net interest margin pressure and improve asset quality, alongside significant capital inflows into A-shares, enhancing the attractiveness of bank sector ETFs [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The bank sector ETF, such as Tianhong CSI Bank ETF (515290), is positioned as an effective tool for capturing industry dividends while providing a balanced approach to stable returns and risk diversification in the current low interest rate and asset scarcity environment [6].

Group 1: Investment Trends - The US dollar has started to weaken, contrasting with its previous strength, while US stocks faced significant declines in Q1 2025 [1] - European stock markets have seen substantial inflows of institutional funds due to large-scale fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts [1] - China's market is attracting attention from domestic and international asset management institutions due to breakthroughs in AI algorithms and high-tech fields [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The global economy is in a "no historical precedent" phase, with the US fiscal deficit continuing to expand and no signs of fiscal policy shifts [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are highly uncertain, reflecting unstable inflation data, which complicates rational market predictions [2] - Historical data shows that macroeconomic predictions yield limited or negative returns for fund managers, suggesting a focus on strong, structural trends instead [2] Group 3: Structural Investment Opportunities - AI is identified as a key long-term trend, with ongoing investments in both hardware and software, alongside a new wave of investment in energy infrastructure [2] - Defense spending, particularly in Europe, is set to double, with the EU's annual defense budget increasing from €350 billion to €700 billion, presenting significant profit growth opportunities for large enterprises [3] Group 4: Stock Investment Directions - In a low-interest-rate environment, three main investment categories are highlighted: 1. Stocks with absolute cash flow value, such as high-dividend and strong free cash flow companies [6] 2. Broad consumption sectors, including automotive and electronics, benefiting from policy incentives [6] 3. Traditional high-growth sectors like AI and pharmaceuticals, which may have weak cash flows but significant long-term growth potential [6] Group 5: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and monitoring macroeconomic variables [7] - Short-term US Treasury yields have limited upward potential due to rate cut expectations, while long-term rates face greater uncertainty influenced by inflation and fiscal deficits [7] - Investment strategies for fixed income should prioritize short durations, control for drawdowns, and maintain strict credit controls to minimize overall risk exposure [7][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the context of sustained low interest rates, credit bond ETFs have achieved rapid expansion due to their advantages such as low fees, good liquidity, and the ability to be used for margin financing. The continuous expansion of ETFs will support credit spreads at a low level, and component bonds may perform better. Newly launched science and technology bond ETFs still have investment value. As component bonds become more crowded in trading, individual bonds of the same issuer not included in the index may have potential relative valuation advantages [2][22]. - However, due to the high liquidity of credit bond ETFs, there may be greater valuation adjustment risks when the bond market adjusts or experiences redemptions. Currently, the trading of credit bond ETFs is relatively crowded, so investors are advised to control their positions in the short term and focus on post - adjustment layout opportunities [2][26]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Low Interest Rates and the Potential Expansion of Credit Bond ETFs - **Credit Bond ETF Advantages**: - The types of tracking indexes are diverse, and the coverage of maturities is gradually improving. Among the 21 listed credit bond ETFs, different products cover different maturities, with newly launched products providing longer - term options [13]. - As on - exchange products, they support T + 0 trading, allowing for flexible trading and higher capital utilization efficiency [17]. - Benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have better liquidity. Their underlying bonds are high - quality credit bonds, and they have been included in the list of collateral for margin repurchase since June, enhancing capital efficiency and strategy flexibility [17]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: The rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs has led to a continuous narrowing of credit spreads, especially for component bonds. Science and technology bond ETFs have also attracted significant capital inflows. There are investment opportunities in component bonds and individual bonds not included in the index, but there are also risks of greater valuation adjustments during market downturns [18][22][26]. 3. Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: This week (July 14 - 18, 2025), liquidity tightened slightly. R007 closed at 1.51%, remaining basically unchanged from last week, while DR007 closed at 1.51%, up 3BP from last week. The 6 - month national stock transfer discount rate closed at 0.86%, down 8BP from last week [3][38]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 114,846.9 billion yuan, a 2.2% decrease from last week. Fund companies and bank wealth management products had net financing of 39.1 billion yuan and - 43.65 billion yuan respectively [41]. 4. Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performing and general interest - rate bond funds were 6.90 and 5.72 respectively, increasing by 0.02 and 0.15 from last week [50]. - **"Asset Scarcity" Index**: The "asset scarcity" index showed a slight upward trend [4]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term government bonds, and 10 - year local government bonds are provided, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [61][64][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio was 107.1% this week, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among different institutions, the leverage ratios of insurance, fund, and securities companies decreased by 1.3, 0.6, and 1.3 percentage points respectively [68]. - **Bank Self - Investment Comparison Table**: The table shows the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and after - tax and risk - adjusted returns of different investment products such as general loans, 10 - year government bonds, and 10 - year AAA - rated local government bonds [73]. 5. Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: Information on the weekly establishment scale of different types of funds and the 2025 annualized yield distribution of funds is presented [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The weekly issuance volume of bank wealth management products and the 2025 annualized yield distribution of wealth management products are shown. The overall market product break - even rate decreased this week, reaching 1.4% [77][78]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking - Information on the trend of cross - period spreads and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract is provided, but specific analysis is not elaborated in the summary [84]. 7. General Asset Management Landscape - Information on the scale changes of general asset management, public funds, and bank wealth management products is presented, with different data cut - off points [86][89].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.05% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations due to the current low interest rate environment [1] - The low interest rate policy aims to stimulate economic growth and stabilize the real estate and stock markets, with adjustments made to mortgage rates to support the housing market [1] - There is limited potential for significant increases in housing prices, as expectations have fundamentally changed, and the low interest rate policy primarily seeks to prevent a sharp decline in property values [1] Group 2: Industrial Growth and Economic Recovery - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) proposed a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, indicating more policies will be implemented in the second half of the year [3] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, and further stabilization policies are needed to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [3] - The stock market is expected to benefit from the economic recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points and the Hang Seng Index exceeding 25000 points, indicating potential for increased investment opportunities [3] Group 3: Trade and Inflation Concerns - The trade war initiated by President Trump has led to rising costs for American businesses, with the Federal Reserve reporting price increases across all regions, particularly affecting manufacturing and construction sectors [4] - The increase in tariffs has pressured profit margins for companies, leading some to pass costs onto consumers, which may contribute to inflationary pressures [4] - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, China's economy showed resilience with a 5.3% GDP growth, driven by strong consumer spending, which accounted for 52% of GDP growth [4]

Group 1: Investment Trends - The decline in bank deposit rates has led many individuals to seek alternative investment options, such as bond funds and ETFs, as traditional savings methods become less effective [3][4][5] - A significant portion of high-net-worth individuals lacks the expertise to manage their wealth effectively, often relying on banks for asset management [4][5] - The average annualized return for index funds in 2023 was 10.33%, compared to only 3.21% for actively managed equity funds, indicating that passive investment strategies may yield better results [6] Group 2: Alternative Investments - There is a growing interest among younger generations in alternative assets, with a notable decrease in cash allocation from 37% to 22% among Gen Z investors [9][10] - Gold has seen a substantial price increase, rising over 25% in the first half of the year, making it an attractive option for risk diversification [9][10] - The willingness of Chinese investors to diversify into global assets is increasing, with over half expressing interest in allocating to overseas investments [10]