Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in April recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, which is a decline of over 4 percentage points from March but higher than market expectations, indicating strong export resilience [1][2] Export Performance - The decline in export growth is attributed to a decrease in quantity contribution while price drag has narrowed [4] - Exports to transshipment countries and neighboring regions showed higher growth rates, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while direct exports to the US saw a significant drop [6][8] Factors Contributing to Export Resilience - The resilience in exports is primarily driven by transshipment activities and tariff exemptions on certain goods from the US, with over 20% of Chinese goods exempted from export tariffs, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Despite a notable decline in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other transshipment countries have increased significantly, indicating a substantial counterbalance from transshipment activities [6] Future Export Trends - The outlook for exports suggests a potential overall decline, with expectations of reaching a low point by mid-year due to the impact of US inflation and economic slowdown [14] - Even with a downward trend in exports, the corresponding demand for imported components may also decrease, leading to a slower reduction in trade surplus and less drag on economic growth [14] Import Performance - In April, China's import growth was recorded at -0.2%, which is an increase of over 4 percentage points from March, indicating significant improvement in imports [10] - The increase in imports is attributed to improved domestic consumption and a phenomenon of "panic buying" due to retaliatory tariffs from the US [10][12] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in April was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from March, reflecting the overall trends in exports and imports [14]

美国总统特朗普：不寻求大量的关税豁免。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - International oil prices rebounded recently after approaching the low in early April. The potential implementation of Kazakhstan's production - cut commitment may lead to a correction of OPEC+'s rapid production - resumption policy. The strategy of buying put options and selling call options on crude oil proposed on April 15 can take profits [2]. - Precious metals rose for the second consecutive night. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, short - term prices are volatile, and the focus is on the Fed meeting [3]. - Different commodities have different trends, including copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as various chemical and agricultural products, with corresponding trading strategies proposed based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [4 - 44]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rebounded. OPEC+ policy may change, and the previous option strategy can take profits [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Prices rose, with long - term upward support but short - term volatility. Focus on the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper led the rise, while SHFE copper and COMEX copper faced resistance. Consider short - selling the 2507 contract or continue long - spread arbitrage between near - month contracts [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly. High inventory during the May Day holiday, and resistance exists at 20000 - 20300 yuan. Consider selling hedging [5]. - **Alumina**: Production decreased due to maintenance, but re - production may occur. The price rebound is limited, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventories increased after the holiday. Demand faces pressure, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [7]. - **Lead**: Inventories increased slightly. There is a game between cost and consumption. Pay attention to the internal - external price ratio and support levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and prices decreased. Short - selling opportunities are being observed [9]. - **Tin**: Prices rebounded, but the upper resistance is obvious. Short - selling is the main strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices continued to be weak. Inventories changed, and short - positions should be held [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to decline in May due to supply and demand factors [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices continued to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. Supply decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience. The trend is expected to be volatile [15]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rebounded at night. Demand and supply have different trends. The market may stabilize in the short term [14]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Freight rates are under pressure. Seasonal recovery is limited, and new capacity in June may suppress prices. Pay attention to potential short - term market opportunities [16]. Energy - Related Products - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are volatile. High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and the sustainability of low - sulfur fuel oil's improvement needs to be observed [17]. - **Bitumen**: Prices followed oil prices but were relatively strong. Demand increased seasonally, and the crack spread reached a new high [18]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has support, while the domestic market is under pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices were boosted by export news. Supply is sufficient, but the supply - demand contradiction may emerge after the peak agricultural demand [20]. - **Methanol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak [21]. - **Styrene**: The bear market continues. Production increases, and prices decline [22]. - **Polypropylene and Plastic**: Inventories increased during the holiday. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [23]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but there is no clear long - position driver [24]. - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded. PX valuation recovered, and PTA inventory decreased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices rebounded, but the supply - demand drive is limited [26]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber prices followed the raw materials' rebound. Bottle - grade resin is in the peak demand season, and pay attention to the raw materials and potential production cuts [27]. - **Glass**: Production and sales were affected by the holiday, and inventory increased. The market is weak, but be cautious about short - selling near the cost [28]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure may ease in May due to maintenance. Do not be overly bearish in the short term, but look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Short - term soybean supply is sufficient, but there are uncertainties in the long - term. Soybean meal futures may be stronger than the spot in the short term [31]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil may see inventory increases in April. The market is expected to oscillate in the long term [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed futures market fluctuated. Pay attention to trade policies and look for long - position opportunities [33]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to policy guidance [34]. - **Corn**: The market is volatile. Be cautious about chasing long positions and wait for new supply [35]. - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the future. Pay attention to the decline in spot prices [36]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. A bearish view is taken in the long term [37]. - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progresses smoothly. Domestic demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations [38]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production data is initially bearish. Domestic sugar may oscillate in the short term [39]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on new - season output estimates. The output may be lower than expected, but there is uncertainty [40]. - **Timber**: The market is weak. Supply and demand are both in the off - season [41]. - **Pulp**: Prices continue to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the market is expected to remain weak [42]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded, and the short - term risk preference may continue to repair. Technology stocks may be stronger [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. Domestic liquidity may improve, and the market may remain range - bound [44].

Group 1 - The U.S. confirmed that automotive parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico will be exempt from a 25% tariff as part of the USMCA agreement, effective May 3 [3] Group 2 - The China Railway 12306 system reported that as of May 1, it had sold 106 million tickets for the May Day holiday, with 43.56 million refunds and 10.83 million ticket changes processed [6] - The system's ticket sales remained stable, with approximately 19 million tickets sold daily on April 29 and 30, and adjustments made to ticket availability based on demand [6][7] - The 12306 system allows passengers to use a ticket reservation feature, enabling them to select up to 60 combinations of "date + train number" for ticket requests [7] Group 3 - A child accidentally damaged a Mark Rothko painting valued at €50 million (approximately 410 million RMB) at the Boijmans Van Beuningen Museum in Rotterdam [11] - The museum has not disclosed the identity of the child or who will bear the cost of the damage, but restoration experts are evaluating repair options [12][13] - This incident is not the first of its kind at the museum, as a similar event occurred in 2011 [14] Group 4 - West Air has begun selling scratch-off lottery tickets on select flights since April 7, in collaboration with the Chongqing Welfare Lottery Center [18][19] - Passengers can claim winnings by contacting the flight attendants or through the "Chongqing Welfare Lottery" WeChat mini-program [19]

·新势力车企4月"成绩单"： 交付量小鹏最高增长超270%；零跑增长173%、蔚来增长53% ·美国证实加拿大及墨西哥汽车零部件免征25%关税将于5月3日生效 ·日本央行将政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变植田和男：若经济和物价走势符合预期将继续加息 ·从中国国家铁路集团有限公司获悉，5月1日，全国铁路预计发送旅客2250万人次，计划加开旅客列车1341列。4月30日，全国铁路发送旅客1831.6万人次、 同比增长11.5%，运输安全平稳有序。（新华社） ·第137届广交会第三期"美好生活"5月1日开幕，12043家企业参展。参展企业通过挖掘更深层次的消费需求，在孕婴童、服饰、文具、食品、宠物用品、健 康休闲等领域推出更个性化、更高品质的产品，打造美好生活体验，助力提升生活品质。（新华社） ·据海口海关消息，海南自由贸易港"零关税"进口药品、医疗器械政策自2024年12月25日在博鳌乐城国际医疗旅游先行区落地实施以来，已有10家医院通过 政策享惠主体审核。海口海关共监管"零关税"进口药品、医疗器械申报总货值6023.9万元人民币，减免税款818.7万元人民币。（新华社） ·美国海关和边境保护局当地时间5月1日证实 ...

金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（5月2日） 6. 美国4月ISM制造业PMI录得48.7，高于预期的48；美国至4月26日当周初请失业金人数录得24.1万 13. 原定5月3日举行的伊朗和美国之间的谈判因故将重新安排时间。特朗普称将禁止伊朗石油买家与美 国做生意。 14. 美国证实加拿大及墨西哥汽车零部件免关税。 国内新闻： 6. 交通运输部消息，"五一"假期第一天，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量超3.4亿人次，比去年"五一"假 期首日增长8.0%。 国际新闻： 1. 日本央行连续第二次会议将目标利率维持在0.50%不变，下调经济和核心通胀预期。 5. 美国财长贝森特：2年期国债收益率低于联邦基金利率是美联储应该降息的信号。预计GDP数据将被 修正。 人，为2025年2月22日当周以来新高。 7. 美国商会致信白宫寻求给予小企业关税豁免。 8. 美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：预计今天结束前将有关税消息宣布。 9. 美国考虑放松英伟达向阿联酋出口芯片限制，或于特朗普访问该国时宣布。 10. 调查显示：尽管欧佩克计划增加石油产量，但4月份石油产量下降。 11. 英媒：欧盟希望增加500亿欧元的美国商品采购量，以解 ...

金十数据5月1日讯，美国商会周三致信白宫，寻求立即给予小企业关税豁免。商会还要求立即豁免美国 国内无法供应的产品的关税，如咖啡、香蕉和某些工业原料。 美国商会致信白宫寻求给予小企业关税豁免 ...

004月8日，贵州孵化公众号上发布消息称"谈疏铁钢铁理氟"耦合循环一体化项目在贵阳市开阳目双流镇测永村开工，2万吨/年六氟减酸锂等项目开工。据了解，该项目是以磷的主导 的全资源循环播合产业示范项目，中核铂目、贵州降化及其他产业方与贵阳市人民政府签署合作协议。通过建设140万吨七水顽棱亚铁联产40万吨铁白粉、60万吨磷旋铁、60万吨磷酸铁 理、15万吨碳酸锂、1万吨氟化锂、2万吨元氰磷酸锂、10万吨铜冶炼、磷石膏分解制动酸、热电联产项目、公铺工程项目来打造具有全球等务力频能源电池材料研发和生产基地。 0组:BSMT 降，4月海关公布的进口再生铜原锌数据显示，3月再生铜原料进口量为18.97万突物吨，环比减少28%，同比减少12.07%。折分来源国来看，前五来源国分别为日本、美国、泰 国、马来西亚和中国台湾，日本进口量达2.7万实物吨，环比增加16%，一举跃升至第一名，美国进口量2.2万弈物吨，环比减少29%，受中美贸易战不断升级。中国海关次对4月00日前 寓开美国随口，并于5月22号前到达中国港口并报关的再生铜原料进行关税豁免，但在此前，8月份进口贸易商早已停止从美国采购两生铜原料，3月份到港货物均是1、2月赛 ...

韩国产业通商资源部：将通过与美国贸易代表办公室的技术磋商，寻求得到美国对等关税、汽车和钢铁 进口关税的豁免。 ...