Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]

Group 1 - PIMCO warns that the likelihood of a recession is at its highest in years, emphasizing the potential underestimation of the Trump administration's commitment to high tariffs [1][2] - The current 10% tariffs and specific tariffs on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum have negatively impacted the U.S. stock market and certain corporate bonds [2] - Ivascyn believes that investors mistakenly think tariffs will be fully lifted or softened, indicating uncertainty about returning to pre-April 2 conditions [2] Group 2 - PIMCO adopts a cautious investment strategy in the corporate debt market, citing bubbles and excessive optimism [3] - The company favors high-quality investments, particularly in the mortgage market, due to strong household balance sheets [3] - Despite increasing investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly short-term debt, PIMCO acknowledges the attractiveness of sovereign bonds in other markets due to U.S. market volatility and deteriorating fiscal conditions [3] Group 3 - Ivascyn highlights the potential for stagflation risks due to tariff policies, which could lead to rising prices amid economic slowdown [3][4] - The company suggests that diversifying investments into other high-quality markets globally is a prudent strategy in the current environment [3]

FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 股指回升。现货市场，A股三大指数走强，上证指数收盘涨1.13%收于3316.11点，创业板指涨1.97%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，计算机、通信、综合、机械设备行业领涨，仅银行行业小幅收跌。成交量回升，当日沪深两 市成交金额为1.3万亿元。海外市场，美国商务部公布数据显示，由于企业在关税实施前增加商品进口，美国3月贸 易逆差环比增长14%，扩大至创纪录的1405亿美元，高于市场预期。美联储议息会议召开前夕，号称"美联储传声 筒"的尼克·蒂米劳斯发文称，美联储正面临两难境地，并暗示美联储可能会暂缓降息。美国三大股指全线收跌，道 指跌0.95%报40829点。 基差回升。期货市场，股指期货当月合约基差回升。成交持仓方面，IF、IC、IM的成交量和持仓量同步增加。 策略 总的来看，当前美国经济数据加剧市场对经济衰退的担忧，叠加美联储可能维持不降息，美股承压。中方决定与 美方接触，关税风险边际缓和，为国内权益资产提供了阶段性友好环境，股指配置窗口显现。中小盘指数有望表 现相对强势，主要受益于企业盈利修复弹性释放、前期充分回调后的估值修复动能以及补缺需求，IM有望相对占 优。 ...

贵金属日报 2025-05-07 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 1.60 %，报 809.28 元/克，沪银涨 0.45 %，报 8275.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.99 %， 报 3389.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.24 %，报 33.30 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%，美元指数报 99.49 ； 市场展望： 受中美贸易谈判消息影响，市场关于全球贸易及关税风险的预期有所缓和，这对于国际金价形 成短线利空因素。截至北京时间早盘 7 点，现货黄金早盘累跌 50 美元，下破 3380 美元/盎司。 昨日期货盘面以及国内黄金 ETF 的持仓表现有所分化，受到节后多头持仓回补的影响，沪金总 持仓量在节后开盘至昨日夜盘结束期间出现增加，由 41.4 万手上升至 45.1 万手，沪金主力合 约区间上涨幅度达到 3.18%。但国内黄金 ETF 的申赎净持仓量在节后表现偏弱，WIND 统计口径 下国内主要 14 个黄金 E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the apparel industry, particularly highlighting Adidas' strong performance and growth potential in the coming quarters [1][9]. Core Insights - Adidas reported a revenue of €6.153 billion in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.73%. The Greater China region showed remarkable growth with revenues of €1.029 billion, up 14.72% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company has achieved positive growth for eight consecutive quarters since the leadership change in Q1 2023, indicating strong brand momentum [1][9]. - The footwear segment led revenue growth with a 17% year-on-year increase, accounting for 61% of total revenue. Apparel and accessories also saw growth of 8% and 10%, respectively [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's proactive measures to mitigate tariff challenges, including early customs clearance and product reallocation [1][10]. Industry Data Tracking - The apparel retail sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, which is below the overall consumption growth, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales [2][12]. - The report notes a gradual improvement in terminal consumer power, with March retail sales showing a significant increase compared to January and February [12][14]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with specific price changes noted for various cotton grades and synthetic fibers [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on apparel brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has significant growth potential. It also highlights the potential benefits for Tmall from the recovery of Adidas and Nike brand strength [3][25]. - For upstream manufacturing, the report recommends leading textile manufacturers such as Zhejiang Natural and Shenzhou International, which are expected to benefit from increased orders due to their strong risk resilience [3][25]. Market Review and Company Announcements - The textile and apparel sector saw a slight decline of 0.10% in the past week, with notable individual stock performances [4][24]. - Key company announcements include Hailan Home's revenue of ¥20.957 billion for 2024, a decrease of 2.65%, and Zhejiang Natural's revenue growth of 21.75% for the same period [4][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate while lowering economic growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 due to uncertainties in global trade policies, particularly from the U.S. [1][2] Economic Impact - The Bank of Japan highlights that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, which would suppress export demand, squeeze corporate profits, and cause households and businesses to delay consumption and investment [2] - The central bank perceives the downward pressure on the economy as temporary, expecting a gradual recovery in overseas economies to alleviate the negative impacts of tariffs [2] Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan observes that tariff risks are causing a chain reaction affecting inflation, predicting a stagnation in potential inflation rates for a period before a return to upward momentum [2] - Due to tariff increases, the Bank has revised down its growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026, anticipating a period of slowing inflation and wage growth, although a severe labor shortage is expected to sustain a positive cycle of wage and inflation increases [2][3] Policy Response - The Bank of Japan adopts a pragmatic approach, indicating that policy responses will depend on the extent of deviations in inflation and growth from expectations [4] - Despite lowering growth forecasts, the central bank has not altered its policy framework, emphasizing the need for continued monetary easing to support economic activity [4] Future Considerations - Trade negotiations are identified as a critical variable for future policy, with the potential for a reassessment of economic forecasts if trade disputes escalate and disrupt global supply chains [5] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its timeline for achieving its inflation target, now suggesting a delay of several years compared to previous expectations of reaching the target around FY2025 [5] Market Reaction - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate increased, and market participants have pushed back expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies will likely delay any rate increases [7] - The Japanese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, but there are still weak indicators, particularly in exports and output, which may continue to be affected by trade policy uncertainties [7]

"星巴克中国业绩提振令人欣喜" 每经记者 丁舟洋 每经编辑 董兴生 4月30日，星巴克发布2025财年第二季度业绩，星巴克中国的表现无疑成为全公司一大亮点。 该季度，星巴克全球可比门店销售额下降1%，可比交易量下降2%。其中，北美同店销售额下降1%，可比交易量下降4%。相比之下，中国同店可比交易量 增长4%，与美国市场的表现形成鲜明对比。 事实上，北美和中国是星巴克最重要的两大市场。截至第二财季末，星巴克在美国和中国的门店占公司全球组合的61%，分别开设17122家和7758家门店。 去年9月，星巴克新董事长兼首席执行官Brian Niccol（布莱恩•尼科尔）上任，其最大的任务就是要提振星巴克的业绩。 Brian Niccol也在季报业绩交流会上点名表扬星巴克中国的表现，并且提到星巴克中国的业务发展依托于近乎完全本地化的供应链及烘焙运营体系。星巴克 新任首席财务官Cathy Smith则表示，咖啡豆进口（美国），以及从中国市场采购的饮料原料，是受关税影响很大的两个领域，公司正采取多种措施，降低 关税带来的风险。 而在美国市场，星巴克还面临着较大压力。财报显示，星巴克第二财季北美同店销售额下滑1%，下滑幅度高 ...

2、大众集团CFO周三表示，准备与美国政策制定者合作，扩大在美生产，以规避关税风 险。目前，大众已经在美国田纳西州和墨西哥设有工厂，接下来不排除加大投资、在美国本 土生产更多车型的可能性。 关税冲击下，欧洲前几大车企纷纷撤回2025年业绩指引。 周三，德国梅赛德斯-奔驰集团、Stellantis撤回今年业绩指引，理由是关税扰乱了供应链，并推高了全 球汽车价格。 梅赛德斯表示，关税带来的不确定性太高，无法可靠评估今年的业务发展。如果当前的贸易壁垒持续下 去，公司的营业利润、现金流和利润率将受到冲击。大众汽车维持其业绩预期基本不变，但警告称其尚 未计入关税的影响。 另外，美国车企——通用汽车尽管一季度业绩超预期，但周二宣布取消年度指引，同时暂停股票回购计 划，就连财报电话会时间也有所推迟。 特朗普关税反复横跳，很难看清行业前路 据央视新闻，此前特朗普对进口汽车加征25%的关税已于4月3日正式生效。然而，美国各界对政府关税 政策的反对声持续不断，给政府带来越来越大的压力。当地时间4月29日，特朗普签署公告，允许对进 口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的补偿，用于抵消美国组装的汽车零部件的 部分关税 ...

Group 1 - Mark Mobius holds 95% of his fund in cash, indicating a cautious approach due to trade uncertainties that may last up to six months [1] - Mobius believes that emerging markets like India will perform well once uncertainties stabilize, but he emphasizes the need to wait for clearer conditions [1] - A recent Bank of America survey shows that investor sentiment regarding the economic outlook is at its lowest in 30 years, reflecting increased risk due to tariff tensions [1] Group 2 - Mobius manages approximately $300 million in assets and expects India to benefit from the U.S. seeking to reshape global supply chains away from reliance on China [3] - He is optimistic about Indian stocks related to software and electronic hardware, while also holding a small amount of S&P 500 index funds to track the market [3] - Mobius anticipates that the S&P 500 index will recover by the end of the year as investor confidence in U.S. investments improves [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of Debang Lighting, indicating a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, while also noting a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio for 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 347 million yuan, down 7.53% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 998 million yuan, a decline of 8.09%, and a net profit of 62 million yuan, down 17.11% [2]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2024 increased significantly to 99.65%, compared to 50%, 47%, and 42% in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [2]. Export and Market Challenges - The lighting business faces tariff risks, with the global lighting market maturing. In 2024, China's lighting industry export total is expected to be approximately 56.1 billion USD, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [2]. - Traditional lighting business revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.785 billion yuan, down 6.35%, with general lighting and lighting engineering construction revenues declining by 4.95% and 36.48% respectively [2]. Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, impacting the gross margin of the vehicle lighting business. In 2024, the company’s vehicle lighting segment revenue was 596 million yuan, a decrease of 4.43%, with a gross margin of 15.8%, down 3.45 percentage points [3]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China saw significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 19.21%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points, primarily due to declines in the gross margins of lighting engineering and vehicle lighting businesses [4]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing slight increases [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the uncertainties in exports and competitive pressures in the industry, the company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 315 million, 328 million, and 347 million yuan respectively, with a downward adjustment of the EPS forecast [4].