Group 1: Monetary and Credit Data - As of the end of April, the total social financing stock reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and M2 balance was 325.17 trillion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - The RMB loan balance at the end of April was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and after adjusting for local debt replacement, the growth rate still exceeded 8% [1] - In April, new RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, which was 450 billion yuan less than the same month last year, resulting in a credit growth rate of 7.2%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [2] Group 2: Factors Affecting Credit Growth - The decline in credit data for April was influenced by multiple factors, including the traditional low lending month, increased global trade tensions, and the acceleration of local debt replacement [2][3] - The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement reached approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to the replacement of loans of about 2.1 trillion yuan, which helped maintain a loan growth rate above 8% [2] - The short-term loans for enterprises decreased by 480 billion yuan in April, while bill financing increased by 834.1 billion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in credit expansion [3] Group 3: Deposit and Investment Trends - In April, M2 grew by 8.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from March, while M1 growth slightly declined to 1.5% [4] - Total deposits increased by only 440 billion yuan in April, with a notable decrease in both resident and corporate deposits, suggesting a trend of deposits moving towards investments [4][5] - The net financing of government bonds in April increased significantly by 10.666 trillion yuan, becoming a core support for social financing [6] Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The current credit and monetary environment is stabilizing, with expectations for further interest rate cuts to stimulate private sector financing demand [7] - The government is focusing on implementing a series of incremental policies to enhance financial support for technological innovation, which may lead to increased credit supply [7]

究 东 海 观 ——宏观数据观察 分析师： 事件要点： 察 宏 观 4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，预期6946亿元，前值36400亿元。4月社会融资 规模增量为11591亿元，预期13971亿元，前值为58900亿元；4月末，社会融资规 模存量为424万亿元，同比增长8.7%，较上月上升0.3%。4月末，广义货币（M2） 同比增长8.0%，预期7.2%，前值7.0%，M2较上月上升0.8%，高于市场预期。 摘要： 2025年5月15日 [Table_Title] 4月信贷需求偏弱，但政府融资持续发力 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 4 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月社会融资规模增量为11591亿元，预期13971亿元，前值为58900亿元；人民币贷款增 加2800亿元，预期6946亿元，前值36400亿 ...

Credit Growth - In April, the total social financing increased by CNY 1.16 trillion, below the expected CNY 1.3 trillion and significantly lower than the previous month's CNY 5.9 trillion[2] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 280 billion, compared to an expectation of CNY 764.4 billion and a previous increase of CNY 3.6 trillion[2] - Corporate loans decreased by CNY 2.5 trillion year-on-year, with new corporate loans at CNY 610 billion in April[3] Household Loans - Household medium and long-term loans showed resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 435 billion, maintaining a marginal improvement from March[2] - Short-term household loans decreased by CNY 501 billion year-on-year, indicating a weakening trend[2] Corporate Financing Factors - The slowdown in corporate loans is attributed to several factors, including a reduced pace of debt replacement and weakened demand due to tariff disturbances[3] - Special refinancing bonds issued in April totaled CNY 261.7 billion, down CNY 121.3 billion from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall replacement capacity[3] Government Bond Financing - In April, government bond financing contributed significantly, with an increase of CNY 9.76 trillion year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of over CNY 1 trillion increase[4] - The issuance of special bonds in April was CNY 230.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of CNY 239.6 billion[4] Monetary Supply - M2 growth improved to 8% in April, while M1 growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%[5] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase, reflecting the end of the interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism and the entry of capital into the stock market[5]

宏观动态报告 浮现宽货币,等待宽信用 2025 年 4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 5 月 14 日,央行发布 2025 年 4 月 金融数据, 4 月 M1 同比 1.5% ( 前 ● 值 1.6%），M2 同比 8.0%（前值 7.0%）。新增社融 1.16 万亿元,同比多增 1.22 万亿元，社融增速 8.7%（前值 8.4%）。金融机构新增人民币贷款 2800 浮现宽货币:我们认为 4 月的金融数据呈现比较明显的宽货币特征,M2 重回 8%,4 月全球贸易政策不确定性显著上升,不可避免对企业和居民预期带来 冲击,但衡量信心的 M1 仅小幅滑落并未失速。适度宽松基调下,央行展现保 持金融总量充裕的政策意图,2025年信贷供给侧的发力已比较明确。 等待宽信用:在 4 月的金融数据中,我们尚未找到宽信用链条已经建立的证 据,从政府融资前置到政府支出加快,再到拉动私人部门信用扩张的循环尚未 建立,宽信用仍然需要等待。我们认为在价格水平低位运行的背景下,货币政 策的传导效果部分被稀释。政策性金融工具和 PSL 有望在二季度适时推出协 同发力,这将有助于增加货币政策的传导效果,实现宽信用。 货币供应量数据: M ...

当下，美国正深陷"关税—通胀—衰退"三角困局。在这个历史 转折点上，中国打出的这张牌可谓中美博弈下的政策组合拳 ——它是一次有力度的"宽信用+对冲风险"组合。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 非常时期非常政策。 当美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿反复强调"需要更多数据"，而人民币汇率在"五一"假期表现出足够 的底气时，中国央行率先出手，宣布"双降"（降准与降息），宽松政策先于美联储落地。 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局（下称"金融 监管总局"）、中国证券监督管理委员会三大金融管理部门联合发布"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳 预期"的措施。 中国人民银行宣布，下调政策操作利率10个基点，下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点，下调个人住房公 积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，将科技创新与技术改造再贷款额度从5000亿元提升至8000亿元，设 立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等10项增量政策。 这10项政策可归为三大类：一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，直接增加流动性供应，降低存款 准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；二是价格型政策，7天期逆回购 利率下调10个 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a "double reduction" policy, which includes a cut in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1][2] - The PBOC announced a 10 basis point reduction in policy operation rates and a 0.25 percentage point cut in both the re-lending rate and the personal housing provident fund loan rate, alongside increasing the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan [2][3] - A total of ten new policies were introduced, categorized into three types: quantity-based policies to increase liquidity, price-based policies to lower funding costs, and structural policies to support key sectors such as technology and consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The financial regulatory authorities in China are set to introduce eight new policies aimed at adapting financing systems to new real estate development models and supporting small and micro enterprises [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflow, with measures including enhancing operations by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][4] - The coordinated efforts of the three major financial management departments reflect a break from previous market concerns regarding delayed or hesitant policy responses [3][5] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a "tariff-inflation-recession" triangle, which is challenging the independence of monetary policy and creating initial cracks in the dollar's hegemonic foundation [5][6] - The Chinese government's recent policy measures are seen as a strategic move in the context of U.S.-China economic negotiations, aiming to create a "policy buffer" ahead of high-level talks [6][7] - The A-share market responded positively to the policy announcements, indicating market confidence in the measures taken, although the reaction was more rational compared to previous policy-induced exuberance [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, with a package of measures including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy rate, and an increase in the intensity of structural monetary policy tools, aiming to stabilize the economy and improve short - term credit conditions [2][3] - Stabilizing the stock and real estate markets is an important focus of financial policies. Measures such as reducing housing provident fund loan interest rates and optimizing capital - market - supporting monetary policy tools are taken. For bond market investors, the convertible bond allocation position can be appropriately increased [4] - After the "double - cut" policy, the short - end bond interest rate is more likely to decline, while the long - end bond interest rate's trend is more differentiated. Currently, the bond market risk is not high, and the certainty of medium - and short - end interest rates is higher [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Implementation of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts, and Monetary Policy Easing to Stabilize the Economy - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market, and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy rate, driving the LPR to decline by about 0.1 percentage points [2] - Due to the negative impact of the US tariff policy on China's exports and the decline of the manufacturing PMI in April, the central bank increases the intensity of structural monetary policy tools, such as increasing the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 300 billion yuan, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan", and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 300 billion yuan. The "double - cut" policy is expected to improve short - term credit conditions [3] 3.2. Stabilizing the Stock and Real Estate Markets as Key Focuses of Financial Policies - The central bank governor proposes to cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points and merge the 50 - billion - yuan securities - fund - insurance company swap facility and the 30 - billion - yuan stock repurchase and increase re - loan into an 80 - billion - yuan total quota [4] - The CSRC chairman emphasizes serving new - quality productivity and promoting long - term funds to enter the market, while the head of the financial regulatory agency aims to introduce real - estate financing systems and expand the scope of long - term insurance fund investment pilots [4] - Stabilizing the stock market is important for confidence and property income. Increasing long - term funds and creating capital - market - supporting monetary policy tools can reduce stock market tail risks and support the stock market in the long run. Bond market investors can appropriately increase convertible bond positions. Reducing housing provident fund and LPR rates can lower housing purchase costs, and the improvement of real - estate sales needs to be observed [4] 3.3. Empirical Laws of Bond Market Trends after "Double - Cuts" in History - Since 2020, there have been two "double - cuts", in 2020 and 2024, and the rest occurred before 2016. After "double - cuts", the short - end interest rate is more likely to decline, while the long - end interest rate's trend is more differentiated. For example, after the "double - cut" on September 24, 2024, the long - end interest rate increased due to improved risk appetite and strengthened real - estate and fiscal policies [5][6] 3.4. Outlook on the Bond Market after the Implementation of Monetary Easing Measures - On May 7, the bond market showed a differentiated trend, with short - end interest rates falling and 10 - year and 30 - year government bond interest rates rising. After the "double - cut", the risk of a continuous rise in long - end interest rates is low. The bond market is not expected to repeat the situation after the "double - cut" on September 24, 2024. The current bond market risk is not high, and the certainty of medium - and short - end interest rates is higher. If the long - end interest rate rebounds, it can be considered for layout [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is still in a bull market despite perceptions to the contrary, as indicated by the current credit cycle phase [2][3][5] - The current phase is identified as "tight monetary + loose credit," which has been ongoing for three years, leading to a bull market in bonds and a potential for stock market growth [5][6] - Evidence of a shift towards a loose credit cycle includes government policies aimed at increasing liquidity in the economy, such as lowering consumer loan rates and facilitating low-interest loans for technology companies [6][7] Group 2 - The bull market does not imply that all stocks will rise uniformly; historical examples show that even in bullish conditions, a significant percentage of stocks can decline [9] - Institutions have better access to information and resources compared to retail investors, making their stock selections more reliable [9][11] - Monitoring institutional trading behavior is crucial for identifying potential investment opportunities, as active institutional inventory data correlates with stock price performance [11]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a narrow range of consolidation on April 28, with bank stocks strengthening, as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs during the session [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.62% and 0.65% respectively, with the CSI A500 down by 0.25% [1] - A-share trading volume was 1.08 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - As of April 28, 2025, a total of 4706 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 2121 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 45.07% [1] - Dongwu Securities analyzed that the medium-term outlook for China's monetary policy is leaning towards "loose monetary" [1] - The People's Bank of China implemented an excess renewal of MLF in April, signaling liquidity adjustment and potentially paving the way for "moderate easing" [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading selection, covering all sub-sectors [2] - The fund utilizes a cyclical sampling method to maintain dynamic balance, closely tracking changes in China's economic structure, and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - This approach aims to help investors smooth out style-switching volatility and achieve one-click allocation of core A-share assets [2]

分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 政治局会议明确以国内政策的确定性对冲外部不确定性。存在增 量的要点主要是：创设新的结构性货币政策工具，提及设立服务消费 与养老再贷款；设立新型政策性金融工具，用途是支持科技创新、扩 大消费、稳定外贸等；加大高品质住房供给；持续稳定和活跃资本市 场。所以，会议并未提到前期市场预期的财政政策的总量扩容，以加 快政策的落地实施为主，增量信息需要关注政策性金融工具等，以往 这一工具主要针对投资需求，并且历史上的"宽信用"效果较好，本 次针对科技、消费和外贸等发力。 MLF 操作和关键会议之后，债市对于货币宽松的想象空间反而缩 小了。MLF 和买断式回购可能对降准有替代作用，但其并未具备降准 在总量货币政策中的鲜明信号意义。会议之后，对于货币政策，依然 是降准可以期待，降息比较遥远的状态，对于债券交易而言，似乎与 会议前变化不大。 流动性维持稳定，短端不再调整，已经是后续想象中较为不错的 情况。银行负债和流动性内生环境的修复仍在继 ...