Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of "emotional economy" as a trend in consumer behavior, highlighting a shift from "cost-performance" to "emotional value" among younger consumers [1][2] - It emphasizes the dual nature of emotional consumption, where it can provide comfort and joy but can also lead to anxiety-driven marketing practices that exploit consumer emotions [2][3] Group 1: Emotional Consumption Trends - The term "谷子（经济）" represents the emotional economy, indicating a growing trend where consumers prioritize emotional satisfaction over mere cost [1] - Products like trendy toys and virtual goods serve as emotional outlets for young consumers, fulfilling their psychological needs and contributing to new economic growth [1][2] Group 2: Negative Marketing Practices - Some businesses exploit consumer anxiety by creating a sense of urgency around products, such as limited edition blind boxes and exaggerated claims in the beauty industry [2] - This leads to a misperception among young consumers that happiness is directly tied to spending, resulting in financial and emotional burdens [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Stakeholders - To realign emotional consumption with its original intent, consumers should develop rational spending habits and be cautious of marketing traps [3] - Businesses are encouraged to focus on genuine emotional support rather than exaggerated marketing tactics, while regulatory bodies should address misleading advertising and price inflation [3] - The core strength of emotional consumption lies in authentic human care, which can transform it into a sustainable and heartwarming force [3]

Core Insights - Wuhu Lindong Technology Co., Ltd. announced the completion of a 30 million yuan angel round financing for its consumer brand "Weixun 24-Hour Self-Service Tavern" on December 21, 2025, with funds primarily allocated for store model upgrades, city expansion, smart system development, and supply chain optimization [1] Company Overview - "Weixun 24-Hour Self-Service Tavern," founded in 2024, is one of the first brands in China to systematically apply a "full-time self-service model" in offline drinking scenarios, targeting urban populations, especially the younger generation, who seek "relaxed socializing" and "emotional healing" [2] - The tavern operates on a "no staff + smart security" light operation model, allowing customers to enter via a mini-program, select drinks and snacks, and check out without human intervention, significantly reducing operational costs and providing a stress-free, immersive experience [2] Key Advantages - The brand's core competitive advantage lies in its meticulously crafted "product + space + system" triangle model: - A carefully selected product matrix with over 80 SKUs, including craft beers, trendy fruit wines, and pre-mixed cocktails, ensuring a balance of trendiness and high repurchase rates through real-time sales data analysis [4] - A healing space design that creates a warm, minimalist, and transparent environment, accommodating various social scenarios and fostering a sense of belonging [4] - An independently developed IoT smart management system that digitizes the entire operation chain, ensuring safety, efficiency, and control for 24-hour operations [4] Investment Perspective - The lead investor expressed optimism about the combination of "emotional consumption" and "efficiency revolution," highlighting the structural opportunity in night economy and relaxed consumption, and noting that the Weixun team has effectively merged self-service retail efficiency with the emotional value of offline socializing [5] - The founder and CEO of Weixun stated that this round of financing is a deep recognition of their vision to make "relaxed drinking a daily routine," aiming to innovate traditional nighttime consumption scenarios and expand into key urban areas [5] Future Plans - Weixun plans to accelerate its layout by establishing its first flagship stores in core business districts and communities in first-tier and new first-tier cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chengdu, utilizing a "direct demonstration + city partner" expansion model [5]

此前，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"定位明年八大重点任务之首。 在短暂的概念爆炒之后，"犒赏经济"会走出怎样的行情？ 01 尽管概念新鲜，但从其本质来看，犒赏经济概念仍是新消费概念的分支。 在此基调下，"扩内需"势必成为市场的重要议题。 近日，学习时报刊发《何为"犒赏经济"》的文章，提出了一个新名词——"犒赏经济"。 随后，百大集团、德艺文创、广博股份等一众概念股批量直接涨停，有的甚至不到1个月就已接近翻倍。 某种程度上看，犒赏经济和之前的IP经济、谷子经济、悦己经济等情绪消费概念十分类似，但又更进一步。 从官方定义来看，犒赏经济是指消费者在面对工作生活压力或特定的心理需求时，通过购买价格在承受范围内的非必需品或体验服务，以获取即时性愉悦 感、自我确认感和心理疗愈的一种经济活动。 也是因此，相比悦己经济等，犒赏经济的范畴内加入了更多服务性消费。 相比文娱、潮玩，旅游、餐饮，甚至饮料，都可以被纳入"犒赏经济"的范畴。 在生活中也不难发现，越来越多行业开始引入"疗愈""解压"等情绪元素，也开始模仿盲盒、谷子等情绪消费的玩法。 商务部数据显示，2025年年轻人"犒赏类"消费占比明显攀升，95后 ...

Core Insights - The popularity of Perler Beads, also known as "拼豆," has surged, particularly among young adults, transforming from a children's toy into a social currency for this demographic [1][4][29] - The release of "Zootopia 2," which grossed 3.6 billion yuan, has significantly contributed to the rise of this crafting trend, with sales of related materials skyrocketing on platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [1][4][18] Industry Overview - The offline market is capitalizing on this trend, with many DIY stores offering Perler Bead experiences priced between 19.9 yuan and 88 yuan per hour, often selling over a thousand sessions [3][18] - A specific store in Beijing reported annual sales of over 425,000 yuan from a single Perler Bead package, averaging more than 35,000 yuan monthly [3][18] Market Dynamics - The pricing structure for Perler Beads shows a clear segmentation, with standard beads priced at approximately 1.3 to 1.5 yuan per thousand, while premium brands like MARD charge up to 5.28 yuan per thousand [7][22] - The business model has evolved into a closed loop, attracting users with low-cost experiences, maintaining engagement through IP designs, and monetizing through materials and custom services [9][24] Growth Statistics - As of December 17, there are 17,200 handcraft-related enterprises in China, with a 69.7% increase in registrations in 2022 and 6,558 new registrations in 2025 alone, marking a 28.6% year-on-year growth [10][25] Challenges - The industry faces significant challenges, particularly in terms of product homogeneity, as many stores offer similar crafting options, leading to a decline in repeat purchases [12][27] - The sustainability of the trend is questioned, as the emotional appeal of crafting may diminish over time, especially as consumers seek new forms of entertainment [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry index rose by 6.66% in the week of December 15-19, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.63 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries [6][15] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port has shown promising initial results, with duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day and a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods [4][25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and the potential for high-growth sectors within the retail space, particularly in jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [7][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66% [6][15] - The supermarket sector saw the highest weekly increase of 14.18%, while the commercial property sector led with a year-to-date increase of 22.51% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on "one line open, two lines controlled, and free trade within the island" [4][25] - The proportion of zero-tariff goods increased from 21% to 74%, covering approximately 6,600 items, which is expected to reduce import tax burdens by about 20% for related enterprises [26][25] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [7][30] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [7][30] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic cosmetics brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][31] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical aesthetics product manufacturers and leading chain medical institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][31] Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD for FY2026H1, with a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1% [37] - Lao Pu Gold achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion HKD for FY2025H1, marking a significant increase of 250.9% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 285.8% [36] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 42.434 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year, with net profit showing a significant loss [44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing emotional and social value of plush toys, which are evolving from traditional toys into new consumer products that fulfill the need for warmth and companionship, with the market size expected to grow from 143 billion yuan in 2024 to 241 billion yuan by 2028 [1] - The plush toy industry is experiencing significant growth, with the global market expected to exceed 10 billion USD in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 15% [4] - The registration of plush toy-related companies has remained above 1,000 annually from 2015 to 2024, with a notable increase in registrations in recent years, reaching 1,483 in 2024, a year-on-year growth of over 16% [4] Group 2 - The popularity of plush toys is evident on social media platforms, with "plush toys" related topics reaching 22.1 billion views on Xiaohongshu and 180.1 billion views on Douyin [3] - Notable sales figures include a significant increase in revenue for plush products from Pop Mart, which grew from 446 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 6.139 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a staggering year-on-year growth of 1,276.2% [6] - Star IP-derived plush products are gaining traction, with sales figures such as over 100,000 units sold for the "Bubu" plush keychain from Mayday and over 10 million yuan in sales for the "Zhou Keke" plush doll on its launch day [7] Group 3 - The integration of AI technology into plush toys is creating new interactive and personalized experiences, with the AI toy market in China projected to reach 24.6 billion yuan in 2024 and grow to 29 billion yuan in 2025 [9] - Major companies are entering the AI plush toy market, with products priced between 200 yuan and 500 yuan, featuring interactive capabilities and emotional engagement [9] - The post-2000 generation has become the largest consumer group for plush toys, accounting for 43%, with emotional value and interest being primary reasons for their consumption, aligning with the trend of emotional spending [10]

Core Insights - The rise of book blind boxes is reshaping reading habits among young people, blending physical books with the blind box economy, and raising questions about whether this trend promotes deep reading or merely serves as emotional consumption [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Book blind boxes are gaining popularity as a means for bookstores to clear inventory and engage customers, with one bookstore owner selling over 10,000 boxes after a successful online launch [3] - The pricing strategy for blind boxes typically involves a fixed price of 99 yuan, with the total value of the books exceeding 180 yuan, providing customers with perceived value [3] - The blind box model allows bookstores to transition from passive sales to active recommendations, potentially offering a new approach for the traditional publishing industry [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly prioritizing emotional experiences over the absolute quality of book content, with blind boxes providing a gamified, social, and simplified choice experience [2][5] - The emotional satisfaction derived from receiving a curated selection of books is seen as a form of psychological comfort in an era of information overload [2][5] - Some consumers have reported mixed experiences, with instances of receiving books they already own or do not prefer, leading to a debate about the value of blind boxes [5][6] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The blind box model faces challenges such as thin profit margins and high labor costs, with some bookstore owners working extensive hours to manage operations [4] - Concerns exist regarding the potential decline in book quality if the focus shifts solely to attracting traffic rather than maintaining content standards [3][5] - The ongoing debate about the balance between cultural and commercial aspects of book consumption highlights the risk of diminishing the depth of knowledge dissemination through gamified experiences [5][6] Group 4: Future Directions - For sustainable development, the industry must prioritize content quality, innovate service offerings, and enhance cultural value through collaborations with other sectors [6]

Group 1: Impact of Hong Kong IPOs on Secondary Market - The Hong Kong IPO market has significantly rebounded this year, with approximately 100 companies raising over 250 billion HKD, and the expected IPO financing center for 2026 is around 330 billion HKD [1] - There is a positive correlation between IPO financing in the primary market and the performance of the Hang Seng Index, suggesting a mutual causation [2] - A weak US dollar and low Hibor rates are common factors driving the simultaneous strength of both IPO and secondary markets, as investors tend to reduce US asset allocations and increase global market allocations, with Hong Kong stocks being a potential option [3] Group 2: Performance of Secondary Market Post-IPO - Large IPOs do not have a significant overall impact on the secondary market, as the Hang Seng Index shows no clear pattern in the 20 trading days prior to large IPOs, while the probability of the index strengthening in the 20 trading days following a large IPO is 56%, with a median increase of 4% [4] - The probability of large IPOs being successful is high, with positive median absolute and excess returns from listing to the time of inclusion [5] Group 3: New Consumption Policies - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance aim to promote new consumption formats, with pilot programs launched in 50 cities, emphasizing the need for robust implementation plans and project management [6] - The younger generations, particularly Y and Z, are becoming the main consumer force, with a focus on personalized and emotional consumption, leading to the rise of industries like the "guzi economy" [6] - The new consumption sector is expected to evolve towards three trends (health, new pragmatism, and emotional consumption) and two dimensions (intelligent and overseas consumption), suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [6]

Macroeconomic Analysis - The narrow revenue growth has slowed down, with national public budget revenue increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year from January to November 2025, and the growth rate in November being flat compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Narrow budget expenditure grew by 1.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a decline of 3.7% in November, indicating a marginal narrowing of the decline compared to October [1] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth remains low, influenced by prior fiscal efforts and year-end budget adjustments, with key areas like health, technology, and environmental protection seeing leading expenditure growth [1] Government Fund Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a significant decline of 15.8% in November [2] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a notable recovery in November, growing by 2.8% compared to a decline of 38.2% in October [2] - The increase in expenditure is attributed to the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to support local investment projects [2] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal balance remains tight, with moderate revenue growth constraining expenditure amid economic growth and real estate market transitions [3] - Expenditure is becoming more targeted and effective, with a clear focus on key areas such as social welfare and technological innovation [3] - The decision-makers plan to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with an expected narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4%, emphasizing structural optimization and enhancing local fiscal sustainability [3] IP Fun Food Industry Analysis - The IP fun food sector, which combines IP with food and collectible gifts, is rapidly growing, driven by consumer demand for emotional consumption [6][7] - The market size of China's IP food industry is projected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2%, while the IP fun food segment is expected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan to 11.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 19.6% [7] - The growth is fueled by the younger generation's increasing emotional consumption needs and the mature supply chain of the snack industry in China [7] Competitive Landscape - The core competitiveness in the IP fun food market lies in supply chain management and IP operation, with low differentiation in snack products making cost control crucial [8] - The market remains fragmented, with leading companies holding only 7.6% market share, indicating a competitive environment with many small players [9] - The differentiation provided by IP toys as gifts is key to achieving premium pricing in a market where snack products lack inherent differentiation [8][9]

Group 1: Core Concept of "Reward Economy" - The "Reward Economy" is a new consumption model where consumers purchase non-essential goods or services to gain immediate pleasure and emotional satisfaction in response to work and life pressures [1] - This concept has gained traction on social media and is linked to popular IP consumption trends, with films like "Zootopia 2" generating over 3.6 billion yuan in box office revenue, leading to collaborations with over 70 brands across various sectors [1] - The upcoming release of "Avatar 3" further highlights the potential of IP consumption in driving market activity [1] Group 2: Investment Insights from Securities Firms - Dongxing Securities predicts that continued policy support by 2026 will boost consumer confidence, shifting investment focus in new consumption sectors from short-term narratives to business models and profitability barriers [2] - The report identifies three major trends in the new consumption industry: health-oriented, new pragmatism, and emotional consumption, along with developments in smart technology and overseas consumption [2] - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes that new consumption is fundamentally supply-driven, marking a "new consumption upgrade," with categories like tech sleep products and ergonomic chairs gaining momentum [2] Group 3: A-Share Related Themes - Beauty and personal care sectors reflect "self-reward" consumption, with companies like Betaini focusing on sensitive skin care, aligning with emotional value in the reward economy [3] - Proya, known for its anti-aging products, meets consumer demands for self-investment in appearance, while Huaxi Biological's functional skincare products cater to quality upgrades in skincare [3] Group 4: Tourism, Hospitality, and Dining - Dining and travel are classic forms of self-reward, with companies like China Duty Free benefiting from luxury purchases during travel, directly boosting their performance [4] - Tongqinglou targets celebratory consumption scenarios, while Jinjiang Hotels offers mid-to-high-end accommodations that align with current leisure spending trends [4] Group 5: Trendy Toys and Entertainment - Companies like Pop Mart cater to emotional consumption among younger demographics through collectible blind boxes, which serve as popular self-reward items [5] - Tom Cat is developing AI companion toys, aligning with emotional consumption needs, while Aofei Entertainment is engaging in the IP economy with AI toys and card game services [6] Group 6: Retail and Lifestyle Services - Retail companies like Baida Group are experiencing significant market performance driven by the reward economy, while Nanjing Shunyi reflects strong consumer recovery trends [7] - Meituan provides a platform for various self-reward consumption experiences, including high-end dining and hotel stays [7] Group 7: Other Niche Areas - Langsha, a leader in intimate apparel, aligns with consumer desires for quality and comfort, reflecting small-scale self-reward trends [8] - Zhongchong focuses on high-end pet food, catering to pet owners' emotional needs for rewarding their pets [8] - Deyi Cultural Innovation emphasizes IP operations and collectible products, appealing to young consumers' preferences for self-reward through trendy toys [8]