2026.02.02-02.06 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主力 合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量199万吨，表观消费量176万吨，主要钢厂库存149万 吨，社会库存523万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间，近期市场关注度略有下降。 2 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、M ...

2026.02.02-02.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈"冲高回落"走势。于1月29日创下1249.12元/克的 高点。随后因美联储暂停降息的信号明确，美元指数反弹至9 7 . 1 2，叠 加多头大量获利了结，金价大幅回调，净多持仓显著下降。 短期来看，金价或进入高位震荡阶段。一方面，地缘不确定性、全球 央行购金等长期支撑依然存在；另一方面，美联储政策转向与美元可能 的持续反弹将构成主要压制，且技术面存在回调需求。后市需重点关注 地缘局势演变、美元指数动向及市场资金面变化，警惕避险情绪退潮带 来的价格调整风险。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，下方支撑位1085－1095元/克，建 议逢低买入，短期高位波动较大注意控制仓位。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期高位大幅回调，上方压力：1115－1165元/克， 下方支 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场持稳运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4459元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸企出货价格基本稳定，部 分出版订单提货尚未结束，个别成交存在商谈空间；第二，周内华南地区个别产线停机，行业供给有所减量，但部分纸企库存压力仍存；第 三，临近春节，下游订单有限，备货热情一般，经销商多数稳价出货；第四，上游木浆价格走势偏弱，成本面对双胶纸支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on January 30, 2026, and the overall trends of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **January 30, 2026 Futures Main Contract Outlook**: - Index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) will fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - Gold (AU2604), silver (AG2604), copper (CU2603), aluminum (AL2603), nickel (NI2603), tin (SN2603), and lithium carbonate (LC2605) futures will have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and silver, copper, aluminum, and tin will reach new highs [2]. - Coking coal (JM2605) futures will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Crude oil (SC2603) and fuel oil (FU2603) futures will have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **January 2026 Futures Main (Continuous) Contract Outlook**: - Index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will generally show a strong or strong - fluctuating trend, and IM will reach a new high [5]. - Gold (AU), silver (AG), copper (CU), aluminum (AL), tin (SN), and lithium carbonate (LC) futures main continuous contracts will be strongly fluctuating and reach new highs [5]. - Nickel (NI) futures main continuous contract will be strongly fluctuating [5]. - Crude oil (SC) futures main continuous contract will have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Coking coal (JM2605) will have a wide - range fluctuation [5]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: - Sino - British leaders met, reaching a series of positive results, including promoting bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership, establishing a financial working group, and China considering visa - free policies for British citizens. China also reduced the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5% [6]. - The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, targeting key service consumption areas such as transportation, housekeeping, and online audio - visual [6]. - The Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 is expected to see 9.5 billion cross - regional trips, a record high. Highways will be free for small cars during the Spring Festival, and the railway group introduced new refund policies [6]. - The 2026 National Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month was launched, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities, over 360 million yuan in consumption vouchers, and various preferential measures [7]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance advanced the central government's subsidy funds for assisting people in difficulty in 2026, amounting to 141 billion yuan, and implemented "small - scale and rapid relief" [7]. - **International News**: - The U.S. Congress Senate failed to advance a government funding bill, and the U.S. federal government is at risk of a partial shutdown [7]. - U.S. President Trump said that Russian President Putin agreed to suspend air strikes on Ukraine for a week due to cold weather. Trump also plans to announce the nomination for the next Fed chair next week and reopen the Venezuelan airspace [8]. - The U.S. trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month. Exports decreased by 3.6% to $292.1 billion, and imports increased by 5% to $348.9 billion [8]. - Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1 to 2, including live - fire shooting [8]. - South Africa is considering imposing a maximum 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On January 29, the CME Group raised the margin for COMEX copper futures by 20% and the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures from 5% to 6%, effective after the close on January 30 [8]. - In 2025, global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, with a total demand value of $555 billion. Gold investment demand reached 2,175 tons, and gold ETFs increased by 801 tons [9]. - On January 29, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [9]. - On January 29, U.S. and Brent crude oil futures rose, with geopolitical risks driving up supply - disruption expectations [9]. - Venezuela's National Assembly passed a bill to reform the oil law, allowing private and foreign investment in the oil industry [9]. - On January 29, London base metals showed mixed results, with LME copper up 4.73%, LME zinc up 2.65%, and LME nickel up 1.37%, while LME tin fell 2.6% [10]. - On January 29, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.946, down 7 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9506. The central parity rate was 6.9771, down 16 basis points [10]. - The U.S. Treasury added 10 economies to the foreign - exchange monitoring list [10]. - On January 29, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.20% to 96.16, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [11]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: - On January 29, IF2603, IH2603, and IM2603 showed different trends, with short - term upward or downward pressures [11][12][13]. - IC2603 had a short - term decline, with reduced upward momentum and increased downward pressure [13]. - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation on January 29, with different performances among major indices [14]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose on January 29, reaching a nearly 4 - year high [14]. - U.S. and European stock markets had mixed performance on January 29 [15]. - **Gold Futures**: - On January 29, AU2604 had a significant increase, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it declined, with increased short - term downward pressure [34][35]. - The precious metal market had large fluctuations on January 29 [36]. - **Silver Futures**: - On January 29, AG2604 rose significantly, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it had a wide - range decline, with increased short - term downward pressure [39][40]. - **Copper Futures**: - On January 29, CU2603 rose significantly, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it continued to rise, with increased short - term downward pressure [47]. - **Aluminum Futures**: - On January 29, AL2603 had a weak rise, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it continued to rise, with increased short - term downward pressure [51]. - **Nickel Futures**: - On January 29, NI2603 rose slightly, with short - term upward momentum [59]. - **Tin Futures**: - On January 29, SN2603 rose slightly, with short - term upward momentum [62]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: - On January 29, LC2605 declined slightly, with increased short - term downward pressure [68]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: - On January 29, JM2605 rose, with short - term upward momentum [72]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: - On January 29, SC2603 rose, with short - term upward momentum [79]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: - On January 29, FU2603 rose, with short - term upward momentum [84].

Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Department: Research and Consulting Department - Producer: Hao Xutong - Investment Consulting Qualification: Z0013677 Report Core Points Daily Fluctuation, Fund Flow, and Volume Change - The report presents the daily price changes, fund flow percentages, and trading volume changes of various futures varieties including粳米, international copper, PVC, etc [5][7][9] Daily Fund Inflow and Outflow Ranking - The top five futures varieties with daily fund inflow are粳米, international copper, PVC, paper pulp, and wire rod; the top five with daily fund outflow are cotton yarn, lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, Shanghai gold, and caustic soda [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures varieties vary, with CSI 1000 futures at 14%, CSI 500 futures at 12%, Shanghai gold at 12%, and Shanghai copper at 7% [14]

天胶早报- 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16300，基差-280 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-30 农业备肥跟进 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-29，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -37元/吨（+2）；河南基差：-47元/吨（-8）；江苏基差：-27元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润215元/吨（+20），出口利润 941元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2026-01-29，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-01-29，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素延续震荡偏强，农业需求跟进，现货成交维持较好行情，春节收单压力较小，后续关注现货价格上方政策指 导价。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂 ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾释放 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12680 | | -300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12500 | | -200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | -350 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11270 | | -15 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11695 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12370 | | -5 | | | | | 单 位 | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东南亚 产区也将迎来低产季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。近期 国内能化板块维持 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 30 日 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，高位震荡 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1165 | 30. 5 | 2.7% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1723 | 3d | 2. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 822672 | 477466 | -21444 | | | | 12605 | 17785 | 36429 | -1708 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1640 | 1640 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1483 | 1483 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 ...