2025 年 9 月 5 日 焦炭：成本预期下修，弱势震荡 焦煤：供给增量预期渐浓，估值回调 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 焦炭趋势强度：0；焦煤趋势强度：0 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1094.5 | -11.5 | -1.0% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1581.5 | -12.5 | -0. 8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1185403 | 733627 | -12138 | | | | J2601 | 23549 | 46827 | 423 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1430 | 1450 | -20 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Positive Outlook**: Rubber (trend intensity: 1) [12][14] - **Neutral Outlook**: PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, LPG, Propylene, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Line) (trend intensities: 0) [2][17][20] - **Negative Outlook**: PX, Glass, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC (trend intensities: -1) [2][52][62] 2. Core Views - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Each commodity has its own supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment factors influencing its price trend. For example, PX is affected by OPEC+ production expectations and downstream PTA pressure; Rubber is supported by raw material supply disruptions and inventory reduction [6][16]. - **Market Uncertainties**: Many commodities face uncertainties from factors such as policy changes (e.g., anti - deflation and anti - involution policies), cost fluctuations (e.g., oil and coal prices), and supply - demand imbalances (e.g., new产能 releases and seasonal demand changes) [37][42]. 3. Summary by Commodity **PX, PTA, MEG** - **PX**: Cost collapse due to potential OPEC+ production increase, with a weakening unilateral trend. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread and 1 - 5 negative spread. The downside of the unilateral price is limited, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [6][10][11]. - **PTA**: Follows the decline in crude oil prices. Focus on the 11 - 1 positive spread for the month - spread and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX for processing fees [10][11]. - **MEG**: Valuation drops due to the decline in coal and crude oil prices. The domestic production capacity utilization rate decreases, while polyester production increases. The supply in September is still tight, and the 1 - 5 month - spread may strengthen [9][11]. **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price is oscillating strongly. Supported by strong raw material prices due to weather - related supply disruptions and inventory reduction. However, the upward movement is limited by the weakening preference in the commodity market [12][14][16]. **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Condition**: Remains in a volatile pattern. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory pressure increases. The short - term arrival volume of butadiene is high, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][18][19]. **Asphalt** - **Market Situation**: The production starts to increase significantly, and the inventory situation is mixed (increase in Longzhong data and decrease in Baichuan data). It is expected to follow the oil price in a range - bound movement [20][31]. **LLDPE** - **Market Outlook**: In a medium - term oscillating market. Although the demand from the agricultural film industry improves, the commodity sentiment weakens the futures trend. The supply pressure may ease temporarily in late September due to maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [32][33]. **PP** - **Market Trend**: Short - term oscillation, with medium - term downward pressure. The short - term demand improves, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure increases with the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity releases [36][37]. **Caustic Soda** - **Market Analysis**: Not advisable to chase short positions. The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The driving force for price increase is insufficient due to export and alumina - related issues, but there is no obvious downward driving force for the spot price either [40][42]. **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: Oscillates. The average price of imported pulp decreases slightly. The futures price rises slightly, but the spot price has limited follow - up due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [45][47][50]. **Glass** - **Market Condition**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the downstream orders change little, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [51][52]. **Methanol** - **Market Outlook**: Short - term rebound, medium - term oscillation. The port inventory accumulates, and the price is weak. The short - term fundamental contradiction is large, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [54][57][58]. **Urea** - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations, with medium - term downward pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises increases slightly. The futures price is over - valued, and the 01 contract may face inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [59][60][61]. **Styrene** - **Market Situation**: Medium - term bearish. The long - position holders' expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season are strong, but the inventory in East China ports accumulates, and the tank capacity is tight in September. The short - term is volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are weak [62][63]. **Soda Ash** - **Market Condition**: The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash plants increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average, with a weak price trend expected in the short term [64][66]. **LPG, Propylene** - **LPG**: The expected increase in OPEC+ production leads to a decline in the crude oil cost. The market is affected by factors such as CP prices and device maintenance plans [68][73]. - **Propylene**: The support from spot supply and demand weakens [68]. **PVC** - **Market Outlook**: Under pressure. The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali compensation" profit model. The domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak, the inventory accumulates, and the export growth may slow down [77]. **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Fuel Oil**: Turns to an oscillating pattern and is still weak in the short term [80]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the foreign spot market narrows slightly [80]. **Container Shipping Index (European Line)** - **Market Performance**: Wide - range oscillation. The spot freight rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern shows that the loading rate in September decreases slightly. The 2510 contract may face loading pressure during the National Day holiday, and the 2512 contract has some negative factors. It is advisable to consider positive spread strategies for the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 contracts and to try short positions on the 2510 contract [82][93][96].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The raw material prices are strong, overseas ship arrivals are few, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals remain strong with expected upward potential. The 01 contract is expected to trade between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Monitor the raw material output during the peak - production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting at high levels if raw material supply increases smoothly [1]. Logs - The recent decline in log futures prices is due to the weakening cost support from lower foreign quotes and low acceptance of delivery products in the 09 contract. However, the fundamentals are still good with low arrivals, low inventory, and stable demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. Consider buying the 2601 contract at low levels [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash market has a slight rebound after a period of weakness, following the logic of fundamental oversupply. Although inventory decreased on Monday, it was just a transfer to the mid - and downstream. In the medium term, after the second - quarter PV glass installation rush, the growth of PV glass production capacity has slowed, and the float glass production capacity is flat with supply - demand pressure. Soda ash demand has no growth expectation, and inventory may face further pressure without actual capacity reduction. Track policy implementation and alkali plant load adjustments [4]. Polysilicon - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit at 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low levels and using put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [5]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are weakly volatile. The cost is expected to rise due to increasing raw material prices and higher electricity prices in the southwest during the dry season. Although production has increased, there are signs of capacity reduction. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. Consider buying at low levels, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai on September 3 was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 870 yuan/ton, down 4.02% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread on September 3 was - 952 yuan/ton, up 1.60% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in June was 421,600 tons, up 1.61% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 3, the price of log 2511 was 798.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 12 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [3]. Supply - In July, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from the previous month. The main port inventory in New Zealand was 470,000 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. Demand - As of August 29, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 62,000 cubic meters, down 4% from the previous week [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote on August 29 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote on August 29 was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,357 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate on August 29 was 82.47%, down 6.79% from the previous week. The weekly soda ash output was 719,000 tons, down 6.79% [4]. Inventory - As of August 29, the glass factory inventory was 62.566 million weight boxes, down 1.64% from the previous week. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.8675 million tons, down 2.26% [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock on September 3 was 51,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type polysilicon feedstock basis was - 660 yuan/ton, down 76% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price on September 3 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 30 yuan/ton, up 100% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, up 6.53% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output was 131,700 tons, up 23.31% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon on September 3 was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 610 yuan/ton, down 3.17% [6]. Monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread on September 3 was - 8,475 yuan/ton, down 21,287.50% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in August was 385,700 tons, up 14.01% from the previous month. The national industrial silicon production rate was 55.87%, up 6.20% [6]. Inventory Changes - As of September 3, the Xinjiang inventory was 119,100 tons, down 0.83% from the previous day. The social inventory was 541,000 tons, down 0.37% [6].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 04 日 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 短纤：下方空间不大仍震荡对待，多 PF 空 PR 持有 瓶片：下方空间不大仍震荡对待，多 PF 空 PR 持有 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6350 | ୧3୧0 | -10 | PF09-10 | -60 | -80 | 20 | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6410 | 6440 | -30 | PF10-11 | 0 | -28 | 28 | | | 短纤2511 | 6410 | 6468 | -58 | PF基差 | 85 | 75 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Weak operation due to supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious - bearish outlook [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral - bearish fundamentals, suggesting to reduce short positions [6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish in the medium - term [8][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish in the medium - term [12][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Weak operation as fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, with a cautious - bearish outlook [16][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The supply - demand relationship of steel products has contradictions. For rebar, although demand has increased month - on - month, it is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has increased slightly [3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, resulting in a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down, and inventory has decreased. For ferrosilicon, production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The fundamental contradictions of both are yet to accumulate [16][17][18] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast - furnace profits have decreased compared to the previous period but remain positive. Iron - water production is running stably at a high level and may decrease due to pre - parade production restrictions. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise, with room for decline in the medium - term [4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The overall supply - demand of steel products shows a loosening trend, and there is a risk of decline in the medium - term [4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, leading to a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions [7] Coke - **Market Situation**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [11] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [15] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. Steel mills will start restocking in September. The October manganese ore quotes from Comilog and United Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the cost side has certain support. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, an increase of 830 tons month - on - month. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol is in a low - level oscillation state. It is recommended to wait for long - making opportunities. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the valuation of East China methanol price relative to downstream is low, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low East China spot price and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long later [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 increased from 2372.00 yuan/ton to 2382.00 yuan/ton, a change of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.42%; MA05 increased from 2372.00 yuan/ton to 2379.00 yuan/ton, a change of 7.00 yuan/ton or 0.30%; MA09 increased from 2212.00 yuan/ton to 2226.00 yuan/ton, a change of 14.00 yuan/ton or 0.63% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged. For example, Taicang increased from 2235.00 yuan/ton to 2252.50 yuan/ton, a change of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.78% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 137.00 yuan/ton to - 129.50 yuan/ton, a change of 7.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 547.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit increased from 398.90 yuan/ton to 405.20 yuan/ton, a change of 6.30 yuan/ton or 1.58%; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 442.00 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 303.00 yuan/ton to 44.60 yuan/ton, a decline of 258.40 yuan/ton or 85.28%; East China MTO profit decreased from - 371.07 yuan/ton to - 388.07 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.00 yuan/ton or 4.58% [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid increased from 348.47 yuan/ton to 376.53 yuan/ton, a change of 28.06 yuan/ton or 8.05%, while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2373 yuan/ton, closing at 2382 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 500463 lots, and the open interest was 795320, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 258 - 266 US dollars/ton, and there is insufficient active offering. The reference negotiation price of methanol shipments from other regions in the Middle East arriving in the far - future is + 0 - 0.6%, and sellers are reluctant to sell at low prices [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Wait for long - making opportunities. Methanol is in a low - level oscillation state. Although the upward driving force is limited in the short term, considering the low spot price and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries, there may be opportunities to go long later [1]

宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业矛盾累积，钢价承压走弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服 务 国 家 | 走 向 世 界 | | | 诚 信 至 上 | 合 规 经 营 | | 知行合一 | 专 业 敬 业 | | | ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月3日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1238 | 1274 | -36 | -2.83% | | | 玻璃2509 | 943 | વેવે | -53 | -5.32% | | | 05基差 | -d8 | -134 | 36 | 26.87% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | ...

| | 甲醇日评20250903:等待做多机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 2025/9/2 2025/9/1 | | | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2372.00 | 2385.00 | -13.00 | -0.55% | | | MA05 元/吨 甲醇期货价格 | 2372.00 | 2390.00 | -18.00 | -0.75% | | | (收盘价) MA09 元/吨 | 2212.00 | 2226.00 | -14.00 | -0.63% | | | 太仓 元/吨 | 2235.00 | 2225.00 | 10.00 | 0.45% | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2295.00 | 2290.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 期现价格 | 广东 元/吨 | 2242.50 | 2240.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 陕西 元/吨 | 2080.00 | 2085.00 | -5 ...

| 尿素早评20250903:关注逢低做多机会 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 单位 9月2日 9月1日 | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | (绝对值) | | | | | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1746.00 1710.00 | 1743.00 1700.00 | 3.00 10.00 | 0.17% 0.59% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1787.00 | 1784.00 | 3.00 | 0.17% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1677.00 | 1670.00 | 7.00 | 0.42% | | 期现价格 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1720.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1 ...