FICC日报 | 2025-07-17 市场成交下降，轮动延续 市场分析 美国PPI温和降温。国内方面，国务院总理主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作； 听取规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序情况的汇报；听取关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题初 步整改情况的汇报；审议通过《国务院关于修改 <中华人民共和国外国人入境出境管理条例> 的决定（草案）》。 海外方面，美国6月PPI环比持平，同比上升2.3%；核心PPI也持平，同比上涨2.5%，为2023年底以来最小增幅。 沪指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡调整，上证指数跌0.03%收于3503.78点，创业板指跌0.22%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，社会服务、汽车、医药生物、轻工制造行业领涨，钢铁、银行、有色金属、非银金融行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.4万亿元。海外市场，特朗普在谈及美联储主席鲍威尔时表示，目前没有 计划采取任何行动，也没有起草解雇信件。美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.53%报44254.78点。 期指活跃度下降。期货市场，当月合约将于明日交割，基差趋于收敛。成交持仓方面，期指的成交量和持仓 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the A-share market and sector rotation strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Conflicts and Market Dynamics** The analysis focuses on how geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the India-Pakistan tensions, influence sector performance in the A-share market. The report aims to fill a gap in existing research on this topic [2][5][6]. 2. **Sector Rotation Strategy** The importance of sector rotation is emphasized, suggesting that investors should adapt their strategies based on market conditions and geopolitical events. The report advocates for a shift towards growth-oriented assets during favorable conditions [1][2]. 3. **Historical Data Analysis** The report analyzes 12 significant geopolitical conflicts since the new century, primarily in the Middle East, to identify patterns in excess returns across different sectors before, during, and after these events [3][4][6]. 4. **Impact of Conflicts on A-share Performance** The analysis indicates that prior to conflicts, there is a rise in risk aversion, affecting sectors differently. Defensive sectors like steel and utilities may benefit, while consumer sectors tend to suffer [7][9]. 5. **Market Volatility During Conflicts** The report finds that, except for the 2008 financial crisis, A-share volatility remains relatively stable in the lead-up to geopolitical conflicts, suggesting that markets may not react as dramatically as feared [8][9]. 6. **Sector-Specific Responses to Conflicts** - **Military and Energy Sectors**: These sectors are expected to see increased demand and orders due to heightened geopolitical risks [8][10]. - **Consumer Sectors**: These are likely to be negatively impacted due to increased uncertainty and risk aversion [9][10]. - **Technology and Growth Stocks**: These sectors may experience significant pressure during conflicts but could recover as tensions ease [11][14]. 7. **Post-Conflict Economic Recovery** After conflicts, there is an anticipated shift towards economic recovery, benefiting sectors like banking and consumer goods. The report suggests that banks will see improved lending conditions and asset quality as economic activity resumes [16][17]. 8. **Long-Term Investment Outlook** The report identifies military, technology, and healthcare sectors as long-term growth opportunities, while also highlighting the cyclical nature of energy and consumer sectors [25][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Behavioral Finance Insights** The report draws parallels with behavioral finance, suggesting that historical patterns can inform future investment strategies during geopolitical tensions [2][3]. 2. **Global Context** The analysis also references historical conflicts, such as World War II and the Cold War, to provide context for current market behaviors and sector performances [19][20][21]. 3. **Future Geopolitical Risks** The report warns that ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like India-Pakistan and the Middle East, may continue to influence market dynamics and investment strategies [28]. 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** The report concludes with recommendations for investors to consider sector rotation based on the phases of geopolitical conflicts, advocating for a proactive approach to asset allocation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that while there are concerns about high risks in the A-share market, particularly with 90% of concept stocks exceeding last year's peak prices, there are still investment opportunities in underperforming sectors and the overall market is not as bleak as portrayed [4][5]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The article acknowledges that there are objective risks in already overheated sectors, but emphasizes that the presence of many underperforming sectors indicates ongoing investment opportunities [5]. - It critiques the reliance on PE ratios for evaluating market valuation, noting that during poor economic conditions, low profit bases can inflate PE ratios, making them misleading [6]. - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is 13.34, which is at the 54.41 percentile historically, suggesting it is not particularly low but rather in a reasonable range due to the poor economic environment [6]. - In contrast, the PB ratio is only 1.39, at the 23.45 percentile historically, indicating that the market is still undervalued [7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article argues that using last year's peak on October 8 as a benchmark is flawed, as that rally was short-lived and not indicative of long-term market health [8]. - Despite the rise in bank stocks and small-cap stocks, sectors with historically high equity returns, such as food and beverage, oil and petrochemicals, and renewable energy, have not seen significant movement this year, suggesting potential investment value [8]. - The article expresses optimism for the future, stating that the most critical indicator of market risk is not individual valuation interpretations but rather the overall market sentiment [9]. - It concludes that the current market sentiment has not reached a level of euphoria that would signal high risk, indicating that the market is not overheating yet [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 is experiencing a slow bull market characterized by volatility and sector rotation, contrasting sharply with the structural bull market of 2019-2020 [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The sudden drop in bank stocks in July created significant market turbulence, leading to increased anxiety among investors as they closely monitored market movements [1][11]. - Despite the drop in bank stocks, mid-cap stocks seized the opportunity to rebound, with nearly 3,000 stocks rising, indicating a strong shift in market sentiment and capital allocation [3][7]. - The market has shown resilience, with each pullback not leading to a definitive market top, suggesting an underlying strength in individual stocks despite index fluctuations [5][8]. Trading Behavior - Investors have developed a tendency for short-term trading due to the market's erratic behavior, often missing out on larger gains by exiting positions too early [3][9]. - The current market environment rewards patience and long-term holding strategies, as opposed to speculative trading [3][11]. Sector Rotation - The recent decline in bank stocks has allowed other sectors, such as securities, real estate, and liquor, to potentially take the lead in the upcoming market rally [7][8]. - The market is characterized by high differentiation, with active individual stocks despite overall index pullbacks, indicating a dynamic rotation of capital among sectors [7][11]. Future Outlook - There is anticipation for a broader market rally, with hopes that sectors like liquor and real estate will catch up, leading to a potential new high for the market [7][11]. - The market's ongoing contradictions and differentiation are expected to persist, creating continuous opportunities for investors who remain patient [11].

华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，市场波动率可能走高，板块轮动重要性上升，近关税扰动脱敏，政策预 期升温，南向资金净流入显著增加，外资同步回流。展望看，港股流动性宽裕的中期逻辑未发生显著变 化，但短期伴随热点板块出现调整，资金再配置已悄然进行，指数层面波动率或将进一步放大。 国海富兰克林基金称，下半年对港股市场持谨慎乐观态度，综合考量当前港股市场所具备的低估值优 势，以及国内政策的持续稳步推进，认为港股有望在 2025 年下半年延续震荡上涨的良好态势。 中国银河证券分析指出，近期全球宏观风险再次升温预期，市场的风险偏好受到影响。在全球权益市场 中，港股绝对估值处于相对低位水平、估值分位数处于历史中上水平，中长期配置价值仍然较高。展望 后市，科技板块依然具备较高投资机会。主要由于科技板块政策支持力度较大，盈利增速居前，估值处 于历史中低水平，第二，在国内促消费政策刺激下，消费行业业绩增速预期改善，估值相对较低的港股 消费股有望上涨，重点关注医药行业和可选消费行业。而在海内外不确定性因素的扰动下，高股息标也 可以为投资者提供较为稳定的回报。 本文转自"腾讯自选股"；智通财经编辑：刘璇。 恒生指数高开0.32%，恒生科技 ...

2025.07. 14 本文字数：634，阅读时长大约2分钟 7月14日，三大股指收盘涨跌不一，沪指报收3519.65点，涨0.27%；深成指报收10684.52点，跌 0.11%；创业板指报收2197.07点，跌0.45%。 沪深两市全天成交额1.46万亿，较上个交易日缩量2534亿。全市场超3100只个股上涨，超2000只 个股下跌。 造纸板块午后走高，森林包装、宜宾纸业涨停，松炀资源、恒达新材、景兴纸业等跟涨。 资金流向 | No. of Cattle | Page | 2. 11 | | Status of 12.00 | T | 1 | No. of Children | Dr | 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | A Q 1 = 15 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | | 张唱 | | 上证指数 | 3519.65 | +9.47 | +0.27% | | ...

廖市无双：轻舟已过 3500，后市可为空间几何？ 20250613 摘要 市场短期阻力与长期潜力：上证指数在 3,555 点附近面临技术阻力，但 多头均线排列和强劲的市场情绪预示着未来仍有上行潜力，或在四季度 前挑战 3,674 点。 筹码结构分析：天朗 50 筹码结构显示，筹码密集区位于 3,350 点附近， 当前点位偏离平均成本，短期存在调整压力，但密集筹码支撑市场迅速 反弹。 板块轮动与风格变化：金融与科技板块齐飞，顺周期板块如房地产和基 建开始走强。金融和成长风格表现突出，消费和稳定风格出现触底迹象， 主题投资成为超额收益的关键。 银行板块投资逻辑：银行板块受益于资产荒和稳定资金流入，周期性上 涨仍有空间，建议逢低配置，但需警惕估值过高或快速上涨的情况。 券商板块投资策略：券商板块反弹显著，但部分个股仍有上涨空间。建 议进行高低切换，将涨幅较大的换成前期涨幅较小的券商股票，优化投 资组合。 Q&A 当前市场走势如何，未来可能会出现哪些变化？ 自 6 月 24 日市场选择向上以来，至 7 月 11 日市场表现强劲。我们在 6 月 24 日翻多，并预测市场短期内会上涨。实际情况显示，市场在 7 月 11 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a breakthrough trend in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3500-point mark for the first time in three years, closing at 3510.18 points this week [1][2][4]. Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a weekly increase of 1.09%, marking its third consecutive weekly gain [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.78% this week, also achieving three consecutive weekly gains [6]. - The ChiNext Index increased by 2.368% this week, maintaining a three-week upward trend [8]. Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly banking stocks, has been a significant driver of the market's performance, with the China Securities Financial Index rising by 1.44% this week and achieving a four-year high [9]. - The real estate sector saw a substantial increase, with the China Securities Real Estate Index climbing by 6.43%, and Greenland Holdings experiencing a 27% rise [12]. - The photovoltaic sector also performed well, with the photovoltaic industry index increasing by 5.48% [12]. - The rare earth sector surged by 9.35%, becoming the highest-gaining industry index this week [12]. - The insurance and brokerage sectors contributed to the financial sector's growth, with the China Securities Insurance Index rising by 3.69% and the securities company index increasing by 4.47% [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment indicates a transition to a broader market rally, moving away from a localized trend, as previously underperforming sectors begin to strengthen [12].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3500-point mark, supported by strong trading volume and financial sector performance [1] - Analysts suggest that investors should consider taking profits on overvalued stocks in sectors like new consumption and banking, while rotating into other sectors, particularly focusing on true industry leaders in artificial intelligence [1][2] - The current market is in the July earnings report period, and while new consumption and AI sectors have seen significant gains, many second and third-tier stocks are merely undergoing valuation corrections, which may lead to temporary pullbacks [1] Group 2 - The banking sector is attracting capital due to its low valuation and high dividend characteristics, but there are concerns about performance divergence among large and small banks, as well as the risk of overvaluation in certain stocks [2] - The recent announcement of tariffs by the U.S. on imports from 14 countries may boost A-share market sentiment in the short term, as it could support domestic manufacturing investment and export growth [2] - There is an expectation of a sustained bull market in technology stocks for over three years, with a focus on investments in AI infrastructure, humanoid robots, AI applications, solid-state batteries, and smart driving [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] "反内卷"背景下如何配置转债 ——可转债周报 20250705 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周转债市场延续温和回暖，风格以稳健配置为主，市场重心由成长向低估值、基本面改善方 向切换。"反内卷"政策持续推进，钢铁、建材、汽车等周期行业供需格局优化预期升温，有望 带动转债结构性机会显现。估值层面平价区间整体拉伸，市价区间估值整体压缩则结构略有分 化，隐含波动率小幅上行，情绪边际回暖或应关注短期过热风险。个券方面，中久期、具备弹 性与正股催化预期品种表现突出。一级市场供给平稳推进，条款博弈与赎回公告频出，反映局 部资金博弈意愿持续。建议在防守基础上关注政策驱动下的中期估值修复与轮动机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 相关研究 [Table_Title "反内卷"背景下如何配置转债 2] ——可转债周报 ...