Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and it is expected to start destocking in September. The market has both bullish and bearish factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [6][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [11][12]. - The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments. The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [17][19]. - The pig price is expected to remain stable. The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons. The Brazilian soybean premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, and the downstream inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of port soybeans converted to soybean meal and oil mill soybean meal is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield decreased by 1.78%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. Indonesia has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. The domestic spot basis of the three major oils is stable at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price remained unchanged. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price increased slightly. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price has been adjusted with slight increases and decreases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion is moderate. The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable with local weakness. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday night, the USDA's reduction in planting area continued to be bullish, with US soybeans closing higher. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased, and soybean import costs remained stable. Rapeseed meal fell from its high, and soybean meal fluctuated with external costs. Domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable over the weekend, with spot prices rising slightly by 10 - 20 yuan. Last week, soybean meal trading was weak, but提货 was good, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal or slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian premiums have been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is short - term bullish for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the bullish EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier of soybeans from September to January, soybean import costs are maintaining a stable and slightly rising trend, but the continuous upward momentum of soybean import costs is questionable under the background of global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Soybean import costs have recently maintained a stable and slightly rising trend, and the domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal supply surplus situation. It is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than the 1.366 billion pounds in June. The Indonesian president said that the government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. Last Friday, China's three major oils rose significantly. Earlier, the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy, rumors of poor Indonesian palm oil exports, and rapeseed purchase information suppressed prices, but at the end of the week, the Indonesian president's statement about confiscating illegal plantations raised supply concerns. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventories in Southeast Asia provide continuous bullish factors. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas are low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supports the center of the oil market. For palm oil, if importing countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a moderate level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventories, supporting strong producer quotes. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. Currently, the information about the confiscation of Indonesian plantations continues to drive up prices, but the valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5,664 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,940 - 6,010 yuan/ton, Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 276 yuan/ton. According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), 50.217 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of July, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.614 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease; the sugar - to - cane ratio was 54.1%, compared with 50.32% in the same period of the previous season; the sugar yield per ton of sugarcane (ATR) decreased by 5.21% year - on - year to 139.62 kg/ton. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons or 7.26% from the previous week [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the international market, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there are also expectations of increased production in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India in the new season. Therefore, the possibility of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low. In the domestic market, domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The futures price valuation is still high, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) for 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 880 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; and the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up both domestic and international cotton prices. Also, China and the US have continued to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, which is bullish for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, the operating rate has remained at a historically low level, and the speed of cotton destocking has slowed down. Overall, cotton prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices in China mainly rose over the weekend. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.14 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium and small - sized eggs, and the proportion of large - sized eggs is increasing. Cold - stored eggs are also flowing into the market. Currently, it is the peak season, and the consumption of low - priced eggs has improved. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize and then rise slightly this week [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The number of newly - hatched laying hens continues to increase, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices have performed weaker than expected during the peak season, and funds have taken the opportunity to create a premium in the futures market, especially for near - month contracts. However, as the expectation of a spot price rebound gathers again, combined with the volatility risk brought by high positions at low prices, the futures market may start to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, and the focus will still be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices in China mainly fell slightly over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 13.68 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. Demand has been average, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers and free - range groups has increased, leading to an increase in supply. However, leading enterprises have reduced their sales volume, and the confrontation sentiment on the supply side has intensified. Pig prices are expected to be stable today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous continuous release of pressure and the bottom - supporting sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot market. The futures market has generally risen and then fallen under the influence of news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. Under the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the spread between fat and standard pigs and whether farmers will hold back pigs at that time will be crucial. The market may fall into range - bound oscillations. In the short term, focus on buying at low prices; in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure; and for far - month contracts, adopt a reverse - spread strategy [20].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats overall closed higher. The bullish factors such as the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's imposition of temporary margins on Canadian rapeseed stimulated the market. However, the actual weak consumption and rumors of Australian rapeseed purchases led to profit - taking. The high - frequency data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from August 1st to 15th increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. The strong pattern of oils and fats is difficult to change in the short term [11]. - The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons. India may have started the restocking process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will show a slight downward trend, the export willingness of palm oil will increase after the production rises, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected US biodiesel policy draft, the limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expected increase in oil production, the relatively high near - term production of palm oil in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, and the adjustment of demand by major importing countries [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: The three major oils and fats closed higher this week. The bullish factors included the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's measures against Canadian rapeseed. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil exports in August was good. The supply - demand of Southeast Asian palm oil was basically balanced, and the observable oil inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The price of domestic rapeseed oil was also pushed up by the tension in China - Canada trade relations [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the US will increase the industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. It is expected that Canada's rapeseed production will increase by 100,000 tons to 19.25 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India may start the restocking process [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, the export willingness of palm oil will increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, multiple factors support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, the current high valuation restricts the upside space [11][12][13]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly. No relevant content is provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2510, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 10, and the basis of 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [18][20][23][26] 3.3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, and the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32][33] - **Palm Production Area Weather**: The report provides charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm production areas, as well as charts related to the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][36] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report presents the charts of the total domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [42] - **Inventory of Different Oils**: It shows the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed in coastal areas, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysian and Indonesian producing areas [44][46][48][49] 3.5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report presents the charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [53] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: It shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed [56] 3.6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Transaction**: The report presents the charts of the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [61]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report mainly analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the USDA's reduction of the planting area continued to be bullish, and the cost of soybean imports increased. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable, with sales weak after a rapid price increase and good提货. The downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.37 days. Last week, 2177500 tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2369500 tons are expected to be crushed. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be favorable in the next two weeks. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of soybean imports is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in September. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel. In July, India's palm oil imports decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The total vegetable oil imports increased slightly, and the inventory at the end of July increased by 150000 tons month - on - month but decreased by 1.2 million tons year - on - year. On Thursday, domestic oils prices fell, affected by factors such as the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy and rumors of poor palm oil exports from Indonesia [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentals such as the US biodiesel policy draft, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be supported in the 7 - 9 month period, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high near - term palm oil production, undetermined RVO rules, and macro and demand - side adjustments [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated slightly, with the January contract closing at 5659 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. India plans to transfer 4 - 5 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in the new crushing season starting in October [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. The spot import profit outside the quota is at a five - year high, and the futures price is over - valued. With the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the January contract closing at 14155 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 15 yuan/ton. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production decreased by 390000 tons, with the US production decreasing by 300000 tons and China's increasing by 110000 tons. Global consumption decreased by 30000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 740000 tons [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up cotton prices at home and abroad. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also positive for domestic cotton prices. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. In the short term, cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas slightly adjusted. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.03 yuan/jin. The supply was stable with a slight shortage in some areas, and the downstream digestion speed was generally average. Traders were cautious and mostly in a wait - and - see attitude [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs is large due to the continuous increase in newly - laid hens and limited culling of old hens. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures price has a premium. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices showed mixed trends yesterday, with the average price in Henan increasing by 0.05 yuan to 13.86 yuan/kg and that in Sichuan remaining unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. The market sales were stable, and there was limited room for price increases by breeding groups. Some areas showed resistance to price cuts [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The continuous decline in the spot price is in contrast to the futures price. The release of current inventory helps to relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and the high fat - to - standard pig price difference provides room for future stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, but do not chase the price too high. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse spreads [21].

General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 9396 | 9394 | 9454 | 9280 | 9294 | -102 | -1.09% | 212511 | 188228 | -38522 | | P2601 | 9466 | 9480 | 9538 | 9350 | 9368 | -98 | -1.04% | 703708 | 444903 | 5591 | | Y2509 | 8582 | 8580 | 8634 | 8526 | 8540 | -47 | -0.49% | 109913 | 237228 | -23815 | | Y2601 | 8560 | 8596 | 8616 | 8502 | 8520 | -40 | -0.47% | 530688 | 705833 | -3966 | | 60910 | 10099 | 10060 | 10070 | 9824 | 9852 | -247 | -2.45% | 112790 | 2638 | -17929 | | Ol601 | 10104 | 10050 | 10064 | 9815 | 9840 | -264 | -2.61% | 500035 | 301480 | 18815 | [7] Market Analysis - Market sentiment cooled, and the high - level of oil and fat declined, especially the rapeseed oil 01 filled the gap of the gap - up opening. - Affected by policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired. Although there are sporadic news of rapeseed oil purchases from Dubai or Australian seeds, it is believed that it cannot fully make up for the supply gap from Canada. - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies of the United States and Brazil and the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, combined with the recovery of domestic demand, it is optimistic in the long - term. - The palm oil producing areas are still in the seasonal growth period, and the market expects the inventory to continue to increase in August. There may be a short - term correction, but the long - term view is bullish. [8] Industry News - According to data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons exported from July 1 - 10. - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada. The investigating authority preliminarily determined that there was dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada, the domestic rapeseed industry in China was materially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and material damage. Temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of a deposit will be implemented starting from August 14, 2025. [9] Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors, with the US soybean market being undervalued and supply exceeding demand, while the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and the spot may start destocking in September [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has seen an increase in exports in Malaysia, and the market is supported by factors such as the potential of the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations [7][9]. - The sugar market is expected to see a decline in the price of Zhengzhou sugar in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [11][12]. - The cotton market has seen a short - term rebound in prices due to the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, but the downstream consumption is average, and the price may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][15]. - The egg market has a large supply scale, and the egg price is weaker than expected in the peak season. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [16][17]. - The pig market has a situation where the spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 108,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the downstream inventory days increased by 0.32 days to 8.37 days. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation [2][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed long and short factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, as well as the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel in the first half of 2025. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils, and the palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has an upward expectation in the fourth quarter. However, due to multiple restrictive factors, the market should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday, and the spot prices of various sugar - making groups increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of August had an average daily export volume 2% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is more likely to decline in the future, assuming no significant rebound in the outer - market price [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday. The USDA report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption estimates, and a decrease in the ending inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Driven by the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas making small adjustments. The supply remained stable, and the market digestion was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply scale is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [17]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly increased slightly, and the downstream increment was not obvious, so the continuous price increase is difficult [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [20].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 45.60 CNY as of August 12 [1]. Core Views - The company, Zhuoyue New Energy, is a leading domestic producer of ester-based biodiesel, with a focus on expanding production capacity and enhancing overseas sales channels. The growth is driven by the increasing output of fatty alcohols and the establishment of new projects [7][8]. Company Overview - Zhuoyue New Energy was established in 2001 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2019. It is the first company in China to industrialize the production of biodiesel from waste oils and has maintained the largest production and sales scale in the domestic biodiesel market. The company has been exporting products since 2009, with significant sales to South Korea and Taiwan, and has achieved ISCC certification for direct sales to the EU [7][12]. - The company has a total production capacity of 500,000 tons of biodiesel and 140,000 tons of bio-based materials as of 2024. New projects include a 50,000-ton natural fatty alcohol project expected to start production in April 2025 and a 100,000-ton hydrocarbon biodiesel project set to begin construction in Q3 2023, with a planned production start in December 2025 [7][22]. Industry Perspective - The report highlights that the demand for biodiesel in the EU is expected to increase due to the RED III policy, which mandates a higher share of renewable energy in total energy consumption. In China, the biodiesel consumption is currently low, but there is significant market potential if the B5 policy is implemented nationwide [8][26]. - The company is adapting to changes in the export landscape, with a shift towards Southeast Asian markets and a focus on establishing self-operated sales networks in key trade ports [8][26]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The revenue projections for Zhuoyue New Energy are 44.61 billion CNY, 54.69 billion CNY, and 68.55 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding net profits are expected to be 3.57 billion CNY, 4.69 billion CNY, and 5.81 billion CNY [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust financial health, with a low debt ratio of 21.51% and a net asset value of 23.79 CNY per share [1].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 15 87 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 寂低价 : | | 收盘价 :涨跌;涨跌幅 | | | :成交量:持仓量 持仓量变化: | | | --- | - ...

Report Overview - **Industry**: Oil and fat [1] - **Date**: August 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a two - year high of 2.11 million tons, but the inventory build - up was less than expected, making the report bullish. Palm oil prices rose strongly in the afternoon, with the main contract P2601 hitting a new high for the year. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Its trend lacks a clear driver and follows the market. Due to the abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain high operating rates, and soybean oil inventory may increase, dragging down soybean oil prices. However, the long - term outlook is positive due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, a possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and a recovery in domestic demand. China's three major oils are unlikely to see a significant short - term decline, and it is advisable to hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2509: The previous settlement price was 9012, the opening price was 8974, the highest price was 9236, the lowest price was 8912, the closing price was 8218, with a gain of 206 (2.29%). The trading volume was 299,988, and the position decreased by 5,290. - P2601: The previous settlement price was 9026, the opening price was 9000, the highest price was 9246, the lowest price was 8944, the closing price was 9238, with a gain of 212 (2.35%). The trading volume was 372,378, and the position increased by 52,216. - Y2509: The previous settlement price was 8408, the opening price was 8384, the highest price was 8470, the lowest price was 8352, the closing price was 8456, with a gain of 48 (0.57%). The trading volume was 164,012, and the position decreased by 29,250. - Y2601: The previous settlement price was 8396, the opening price was 8376, the highest price was 8460, the lowest price was 8334, the closing price was 8440, with a gain of 44 (0.52%). The trading volume was 452,116, and the position increased by 20,826. - OI2509: The previous settlement price was 9560, the opening price was 9552, the highest price was 9612, the lowest price was 9512, the closing price was 9588, with a gain of 28 (0.29%). The trading volume was 194,113, and the position decreased by 14,440. - OI2601: The previous settlement price was 9543, the opening price was 9544, the highest price was 9605, the lowest price was 9506, the closing price was 9593, with a gain of 50 (0.52%). The trading volume was 142,492, and the position increased by 22,198 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bullish on the three major oils in the short - term, hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysia's July Palm Oil Data (MPOB)**: - Production was 1.8124 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (7.09%) compared to June. - Imports were 61,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (12.82%) compared to June. - Exports were 1.3091 million tons, an increase of 48,100 tons (3.82%) compared to June. - End - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, an increase of 81,700 tons (4.02%) compared to June. - **Malaysia's August 1 - 10 Palm Oil Exports (AmSpec)**: Exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to the same period in July [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26]