Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to close at 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to close at 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to close at 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to close at 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 1.4 to close at 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.22% [4][7] - Palm oil oscillated and declined during the week mainly due to the month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production. High - frequency data showed that the month - on - month increase in export demand narrowed, and demand weakened after the Indian Diwali festival. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to build up inventory in October, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Additionally, the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy cooled, and its implementation is expected to be postponed, resulting in limited driving forces. Meanwhile, the US sanctions on Russia led to a sharp rebound in oil prices at a low level, providing some support for oils and fats [4][7] - Macroscopically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, easing trade sentiment; the growth rate of the US core CPI in September slowed down, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year. The US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index continued to oscillate at a low level. The US sanctions on Russia led to supply concerns, and oil prices rose significantly at a low level on a weekly basis. Fundamentally, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to continue to increase, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Coupled with the cooling of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy theme and the possible postponement of its implementation, the Dalian palm oil oscillated and declined. As negative factors are gradually priced in, attention should be paid to the supply - demand changes in the producing areas after entering the off - season. Recently, the strengthening of oil prices has slowed down the decline of palm oil. It is expected that palm oil will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4][11] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the DCE palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the DCE soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the CZCE rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 250 to 9,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 150 to 8,370 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang decreased by 120 to 10,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From October 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.45% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with increases of 4.54% in Peninsular Malaysia, 21.99% in Sabah, 16.69% in Sarawak, and 20.45% in Borneo [8] - Exports: According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 were expected to be 1,283,814 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were expected to be 793,571 tons, a 41.75% increase compared to the same period last month [8][9] - Price forecast: MPOC stated that entering 2026, the price of Malaysian crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton. Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen pointed out that Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026 is likely to be postponed to 2027 due to funding constraints and an unfavorable palm oil - diesel price spread. It is expected that the price of crude palm oil will hover between 4,300 and 4,500 ringgit/ton by the end of the year [9] - Inventory: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3507 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 298,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 145,000 tons from the same period last year [10] - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 13,300 tons, compared with 11,800 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 1,406 tons, compared with 847 tons in the previous week [10] Industry News - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure sufficient domestic supply for biodiesel production. Implementing B50 will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel per year, compared with 15.6 million kiloliters for B40 [12][13] - It is estimated that global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high, with the total imports of eight major oils expected to increase by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the increase in imports is the expected increase in global vegetable oil consumption by 6.1 million tons, more than twice that of the previous year. The biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil have strong demand. Traditional major exporters such as India, Argentina, Brazil, and the US are expected to reduce their vegetable oil exports by 2.2 million tons. If Indonesia raises the blending requirement to 50%, it will significantly reduce the available palm oil for export, increasing the demand for soybean oil as a substitute [14] - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production. The available supply for export will be 22 million tons or less. The global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as the available export supply of soybean oil in the US and Brazil is expected to decrease significantly from 2.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 1.6 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 41% decrease [15] Relevant Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, import profits, and inventory data of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils [16][18][20][22][24][26][30][32][33][34][38][40][42][44][45][47][48][50][52][56][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the soybean meal market, South American soybean sowing will fully commence in November, with potential weather - related speculation. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, but the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. US soybean prices depend on export improvement and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. Domestic soybean meal supply may decline in November, and inventory may decrease steadily, boosting the basis. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases after the Sino - US talks are crucial for the soybean meal market [2][58][133]. - In the oil market, the US soybean oil market is affected by multiple factors such as cost, oil - meal arbitrage, industrial consumption, and bio - diesel policies, remaining range - bound. In November, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, and Malaysia's high palm oil inventory pressure may ease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low, but the B50 bio - diesel policy is still unclear. The domestic oil market faces an oversupply situation, with inventory likely to increase steadily. However, there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound in November [3][131][134]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher, influenced by factors such as the USDA quarterly inventory report, Sino - US trade relations, and the NOPA report. Domestic soybean meal markets fluctuated lower due to reduced supply concerns and weak terminal demand. International oils were range - bound, with US soybean oil showing weakness and Malaysian palm oil being relatively strong [7][8]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Sowing - As of October 16, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the previous week and last year but lower than two years ago. With increased rainfall, the sowing progress has accelerated significantly. In November, Brazilian soybean sowing will fully start, with potential weather - related speculation in the northeast and south. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. If US soybean exports improve, Brazilian soybean premiums may decline [13][18][23]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Demand - The US government shutdown has affected the release of USDA reports. As of October 21, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. US soybean exports are far lower than last year, and the possibility of a significant reduction in exports is high. Mississippi River transportation bottlenecks and uncertain bio - diesel policies also affect US soybean demand. If the USDA report is released in November, US soybean yield and exports are expected to be adjusted downward, and inventory may increase [24][29][42]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Market - As of October 21, the procurement of imported soybeans for different shipping dates showed different progress, with relatively limited procurement in December and January. Domestic soybean inventory is currently abundant but may start to decline in December. Domestic oil mills' operating rates may remain high in November but may decline compared to the previous period. Domestic soybean meal demand has increased slightly in 2025, but the decline in pig prices may affect demand. Domestic soybean meal inventory may decline steadily in November, and the basis may stop falling and rise slightly. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases are crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [44][49][58]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil - Since mid - October, US soybean oil has declined from its high due to the unwinding of oil - meal arbitrage. In November, the oil - meal ratio may decline. The US biodiesel policy has not been finalized, and the market's demand expectations for US soybean oil have decreased. In November, US soybean oil will be affected by multiple factors and will continue to fluctuate within a range [60][62][67]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil production reduction cycle will start in November. In October, production increased, but exports faced resistance. Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy is still uncertain, which will affect the Malaysian palm oil market. Malaysian palm oil inventory may start to decline in November, and there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound [74][82][91]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oil Market - In November, domestic oil demand is expected to decline steadily due to the delayed Spring Festival. Supply may decrease after November but still exceeds demand, and inventory may continue to increase. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Palm oil inventory may increase, and the basis may be under pressure. Rapeseed oil supply may increase in November but is subject to policy risks. The current inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil may continue, and the oil - meal ratio may be adjusted in the short term [94][99][131]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - For soybean meal, maintain an interval - oscillation mindset, focusing on low - buying and high - selling. For oils, try to buy at the lower limit of the range or buy on dips after the market stabilizes in November [135].

1. Report Information - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: October 24, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] 2. Fats and Oils 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The three major oils continued to decline this week, with palm oil having the largest decline of over 2%, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil being the strongest. The overall oils sector remained in a volatile adjustment phase, searching for support below technically, while the basis quotation had little fluctuation [8]. - **Macro Factors**: China-US trade negotiations and Canada-China trade discussions related to agriculture are under way. Continued attention should be paid to specific agricultural issues in these negotiations [9]. - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month. Exports increased by 2.5% - 3.4%. Production remained strong, and Indian demand was expected to slow after Diwali, pressuring prices. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy provided bottom support [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Global soybean supply was abundant, domestic soybean oil inventory was at a historical high and slow to decline, but narrowing crushing margins were not conducive to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With capital outflow from the market, bullish sentiment weakened. Good Canadian rapeseed harvests and falling futures prices affected the domestic market. However, domestic supply remained uncertain due to unchanged China-Canada trade policies [10]. 2.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of October 23, 2025, the price of first-grade soybean oil in East China was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan week-on-week; third-grade rapeseed oil was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan week-on-week; and 24-degree palm oil in South China was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan week-on-week [12]. - **Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils was 2.5568 million tons, down 37,600 tons week-on-week, a 1.45% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.4171 million tons, down 45,600 tons; palm oil inventory was 529,800 tons, up 26,600 tons; and rapeseed oil inventory was 610,000 tons, down 18,500 tons [25]. - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 42nd week, the average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 63.89%, up 17.33% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 2.389 million tons, up 658,400 tons. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 7.1882 million tons, up from last week. The estimated arrival volume in October was about 8.807 million tons [28][29]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The MPOC expected crude palm oil prices to remain above 4,400 ringgit for the rest of the year. From October 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month according to MPOA data. If Indonesia implemented the B50 policy, its export supply would be reduced [37][43]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week of September 23, 2025, commodity funds held a net long position of -18,233 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options, a decrease of 32,680 contracts from the previous week. In CBOT soybean oil futures and options, the net long position was 8,046 contracts, a decrease of 26,973 contracts [48]. 3. Live Pigs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The national average live pig slaughter price fluctuated strongly this week. The price increased in the middle and later part of the week due to increased consumption, increased low - price segmentation by northern slaughterhouses, increased reluctance to sell, and reduced large - pig inventory. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head was - 138 yuan, up 50.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 378.6 yuan, up 53.6 yuan week - on - week [52]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 rebounded and closed at 12,200 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.48% increase, with a basis of - 570 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The average price of 50 - kg binary sows was 1,546 yuan/head this week, down 1 yuan from last week. According to official data, the theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to change slightly in the coming months. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms decreased by 0.84% month - on - month in September. Overall, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly until next June [61][62][63]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The average price of 15 - kg piglets was 255 yuan/head this week, down 10 yuan from last week. As of September, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.42% month - on - month. The theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly from October to next March [77][78]. - **Short - Term Supply**: As of September, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in September. The proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in mid - October [79][80][81]. - **Current Supply**: In September, the actual slaughter completion rate of the supply side was 96.5%, and the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The average slaughter weight this week was 127.90 kg, down 0.35 kg week - on - week [85][86]. - **Import Supply**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as last month and 20,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 11.24% decrease compared with the same period last year [91]. - **Demand**: In mid - October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased, but then cooled as the price rose. The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increased by 3.36% week - on - week [93][95]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly in the short and long term, but the pressure has eased. On the demand side, secondary fattening and terminal consumption are expected to improve, but the overall increase may be limited. The spot price is expected to continue to rebound, while the futures price may have limited upward space [100]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors are advised to wait and see; breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [102]. 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: This week, corn prices continued to decline seasonally, but the decline slowed. Northeast corn prices rose, North China prices first rose and then fell, and the selling area prices increased [104]. - **Futures Market**: As of October 23, the Dalian main 2601 contract closed at 2,140 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 0.19% increase [105]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of the week of October 17, the northern port inventory was 1.04 million tons, up 110,000 tons week - on - week; the southern port inventory was 480,000 tons, up 93,000 tons week - on - week [109]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices continued to rise this week due to tight supply, increased demand, and policy support. As of October 23, the national average corn price was 2,218 yuan/ton, and the wheat price was 2,483 yuan/ton [110]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China imported 15.83 million tons of grain, a 12.3% increase month - on - month and a 12.5% increase year - on - year. The import volume of various grains showed different trends. The import advantage of substitute grains may weaken in the future [117][118]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.0% increase year - on - year. Hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly, so feed production is also expected to increase. As of October 23, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 24.04 days, down 0.40 days from last week [132][133][136]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: As of the week of October 23, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, down 7,600 tons from last week; the corn starch production was 287,700 tons, down 5,800 tons; the开机 rate was 55.62%, down 1.12%. The processing profit of starch enterprises fluctuated slightly. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased by 6.5% from last week [137][139]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 Chinese corn production and consumption forecasts remain unchanged, but the import volume is adjusted down by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. The price is expected to be stable [146][147]. 4.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, new corn is listed, the cost decreases, and the substitution advantage of wheat and imported grains weakens. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory intention is low, and deep - processing demand recovers. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the futures price will fluctuate around the cost [148][149]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should purchase on demand; futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions on dips [149]. 5. Soybean Meal 5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **External Market**: CBOT soybeans were relatively strong due to expectations of China - US negotiations and the US - India agreement. The Brazilian new - season soybean planting progress is faster than last year [153]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly, but was weaker than the external market. The market is concerned about the outcome of China - US negotiations and the high inventory of soybean meal. Investors are advised to hold light positions or use option strategies [154]. 5.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: According to the USDA September report, new - season US soybean planting and harvest areas decreased year - on - year. There is a possibility of further downward adjustment of yield. Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [155][156][157]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of September 18, US soybean exports were at a low level in the new season, especially exports to China [163]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The soybean crushing rate and volume are expected to remain high in the short term. The soybean import volume in September was 12.869 million tons. The port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then decrease [168][169]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of October 17, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 853,400 tons, down 87,700 tons from last week. Terminal demand is relatively good [176]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of October 23, the basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 11 - 1 spread was at a low level [182]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 23, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 42,582 lots, slightly down from last week [186]. 6. Eggs 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price first decreased and then rebounded, but the upward pressure appeared on Friday. It is expected to peak and fluctuate next week [188]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price rebounded this week as the spot price stopped falling. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound and sell out - of - the - money call options [188]. 6.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was at a historical high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down in September [189]. - **Inventory Proportion**: In September, the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased, the proportion of 120 - 450 - day - old laying hens increased, and the proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased [192].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着中美贸易谈判公布时间表，豆类市场情绪发生转变。目前国内 12 月份和 1 月份船期 尚有大量采购缺口未完成，随着中美贸易关系的缓和预期渐强，美豆出口前景预期改善推动美豆期价 迎来反弹，进口大豆成本攀升预期影响市场交易情绪。随着前期空头资金出现部分获利了结，期价反 弹压力减轻，豆类期价迎来止跌反弹走势。但现货市场跟涨幅度有限，市场尚未全面回暖，短期期价 反弹空间受到制约。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean market is in a vacuum period with increased volatility due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the US government shutdown. The Malaysian palm oil data in September was below expectations, but the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia. The overall downside space for palm oil is limited. In China, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient in the short term, but the de - stocking expectation is strengthened after the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term trend of the oil market is weak adjustment, and the medium - term is wide - range oscillation. There are opportunities for upward movement in the future, and attention should be paid to the relationship between China and the US, China and Canada, as well as the weather, de - stocking progress in palm oil producing areas, and new news about B50 [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the market is waiting for the final policy in November. The US government shutdown has made it impossible to obtain key agricultural data, increasing the volatility of the global soybean market [1]. - Malaysian palm oil data in September was not as expected, with limited production decline and general de - stocking progress. However, the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the overall downside space for palm oil is limited [1]. - The overall supply of the three major oils in China is sufficient in the short term, but the raw material supply will decrease after the fourth quarter, and the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9100 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of rebound and long - position after stabilization [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: One can enter the market to go long after the stabilization of P2601 [22]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Consider using cumulative option to reduce the risk of base - spread pricing. For the month - spread, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will widen, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil will narrow [22]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8700, 9700 - 10500, and 9000 - 9900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentiles are also provided [23]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [23]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets are provided [24][27][28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil export from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25%. The US renewable fuel blending quantity in September exceeded that in August [30][31]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of October 18 was 21.7%. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16 was 1474354 tons. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory as of October 17 increased by 5.13% week - on - week [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and USDA and US government - related information [39][40]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: After the bearish MPOB report in September and the weakening of the macro - sentiment, the overall oil market weakened. The funds in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. The near - month term structure of oils remained steep, and the market was still in a Back structure [40][41]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weakly oscillating. The B50 road test completion in Indonesia and the expected production reduction supported the price, but the weakening of the macro - sentiment and the unexpected inventory in Malaysia's report led to a decline in the market [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread remains high, and the BOHO spread decreased this week. The overall production cost of bio - fuels is still high [69]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price improved slightly and then weakened again, and the buying sentiment of domestic traders is expected to change little [72]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - The production decline of Malaysian palm oil in September was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations, which was bearish for the market. However, with the implementation of B30 in Malaysia, the domestic demand is good. The subsequent production may decline further, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The cost is firm, the demand is weak, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [76]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean arrival level in October is still high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may decrease from December [76]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current inventory is high, but it will gradually de - stock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [76]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, the demand is weak, and it is expected to remain stable and weak [78].

Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Key Points 1. Market Review - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. The laboratory tests of B50 fuel were completed in August, and it will enter the road test stage. As of September 2025, the B40 policy is in full implementation. The biodiesel distribution target in 2025 is 15.6 million kiloliters, a significant increase from 13.4 million kiloliters in 2024. The government plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Based on B35 blending requirements, the corresponding crude palm oil demand is about 12.3 million tons, and for B40 it's about 14.3 million tons. If the B50 plan is implemented in 2026, the annual demand for palm oil - based biofuels will increase to 20.1 million kiloliters. Indonesia also plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax to 15% [4]. - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of key information such as USDA monthly supply - demand reports and export sales data. The government's subsidy policy for farmers is postponed, and the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain. A new round of Sino - US trade negotiations is upcoming [4]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons [6]. Demand - As of October 17, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 4,233 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,383 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,700 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12,920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,500 tons [7]. Inventory - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 575,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,100 tons, or 5.13% [8][20]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons, or 3.25% [8][27]. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, or 3.16% [8][29]. Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1,085 per ton; the CIF price was $1,106 per ton; the import cost was 9,425 yuan per ton; the hedging profit for the November shipment was - 115 yuan per ton, and for the December shipment was - 216 yuan per ton [9]. Production - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 15, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 5.76% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.86% month - on - month. From October 11 - 17, 3 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, 1 for November and 2 for December [10]. - As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1616 million tons, the operating rate was 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [10][26]. Spot Price - As of October 17, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - In September 2025, affected by rainfall, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, but the output remained at a high level. The inventory in September was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [14]. - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [16]. India's Palm Oil Import - In September, due to Indian refineries switching to cheaper soybean oil, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports reached a three - year high. The palm oil import volume was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [18]. China's Palm Oil - In September, China's palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [20]. - In September, the palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [21]. - As of October 17, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 115 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54 yuan per ton [24]. China's Soybean Oil - As of October 17, the oil mill operating rate rebounded to 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [26]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons. In September, the soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [27]. China's Rapeseed Oil - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons, at a low level year - on - year. The rapeseed processing rate dropped to 3.2%, and the rapeseed crushing volume dropped to 12,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline [29]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: From October 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil output increased. Palm oil exports improved in early October. In September, India's palm oil imports dropped to a four - month low. Palm oil is entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Indonesia's biodiesel policy supports long - term demand. China's palm oil inventory increased, and it will fluctuate in the short term [31]. - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean planting is going well. China has not purchased US soybeans. Due to the US government shutdown, key data is missing, and the biodiesel policy is uncertain. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September was still high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, the soybean oil output increased, and the inventory decreased but remained at a high level. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [31]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. There are expectations of improved Sino - Canadian relations, which put pressure on rapeseed oil prices. The domestic oil mill operating rate decreased, the rapeseed oil output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply should be monitored [31].

Group 1 - The U.S. EPA proposed reallocating 100%, 50%, 0%, 25%, and 75% of the small refinery exemption volumes for 2023-2025 to the 2026-2027 biofuel blending obligations, but the final announcement is likely delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown [1] - Malaysia's MPOB report released on October 10 indicated a slight decrease in palm oil production to 1.8412 million tons in September, while exports increased to 1.4276 million tons, leading to a significant rise in palm oil inventory to 2.3610 million tons [1] - The SPPOMA data shows a 6.86% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil production for the first half of October, while the ITS data indicates a 3.4% increase in palm oil exports for the same period [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 3.02% in August, with expectations of rising inventories during the production cycle [2] - Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15% to support the transition to the B50 biodiesel program, which is expected to reduce palm oil export volumes [2] - China has implemented temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola, but has resumed purchasing Australian canola, with 590,000 tons expected to arrive by December [2] Group 3 - The U.S. biodiesel policy announcement is expected to have a limited negative impact, while Indonesia's B50 progress is seen as a long-term positive for palm oil, leading to a bullish outlook for oils in the medium to long term [3] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October, and the U.S. biodiesel policy has not yet been finalized, making significant short-term price increases unlikely [3] - It is recommended to wait for signs of inventory reduction in palm oil and the finalization of the U.S. biodiesel policy before taking long positions [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean/Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the high domestic soybean inventory and the lack of progress in U.S. soybean imports, along with the bean meal de - stocking season, offer some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The current situation shows a balanced or slightly loose supply - demand, but the future is expected to be tight. Before the inventories in sales areas and production areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand in sales areas, the strategy is to buy on dips in the medium - term [5][7]. - **Sugar**: Considering the high sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the new season, the general trend is bearish, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - **Cotton**: Due to the resurgence of Sino - U.S. trade conflicts, weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, low downstream industry operating rates, and the expected domestic bumper harvest, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has a limited rebound expectation due to high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The fundamental situation is oversupply. The short - term spot price rebound is limited, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds for both near - term and far - term contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to Trump's friendly remarks and strong U.S. domestic spot prices. On Monday, the domestic bean meal spot price was flat, with weak trading but good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, port soybean inventory started to decline, and oil mill bean meal inventory continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 233.35 million tons this week, up from 216.6 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared with 17.6% last year and a five - year average of 27.7% [2]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the medium - term [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4%. From October 1 - 15, its production increased by 6.86% month - on - month. As of October 17, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, up 5.13% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year; the national key area soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, down 3.25% week - on - week. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated with no obvious driving force. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the medium - term [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5428 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants all decreased by 20 yuan/ton. In the second half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 5.1% year - on - year increase in cane crushing volume, a 10.76% increase in sugar production, and a 3.44 - percentage - point increase in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13465 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Chinese cotton was flat. As of October 17, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week but down 7.6 percentage points year - on - year and 10.22 percentage points lower than the five - year average. In September 2025, China imported 10 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price dropped yesterday. The main production area's average price fell to 2.85 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, market sales are slow, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly decline today, with a few areas remaining stable [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose yesterday. However, there is a risk that the product price may not follow the increase, and the demand may decrease. The farmers' enthusiasm for selling is low, and some slaughterhouses still have a supply shortage. Today, the pig price may slightly increase with limited gains [19]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds as the fundamental situation is oversupply [20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The overall supply - demand pattern of the market is stable, with both long and short factors coexisting and a lack of strong trends. Future attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9312.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 10 yuan or - 0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8256.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00 yuan or + 0.05%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9935.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00 yuan or + 0.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or - 0.22%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 122.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or - 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 164.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or + 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 315.00, an increase of 7.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel program for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026. The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) increased by 3, 3, and 1 dollars/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes also increased by 2 cents/bushel for all regions. Last week (October 5 - 11), Brazil exported 1538934 tons of soybeans, 266768 tons of soybean meal, and 902772 tons of corn, and this week (October 12 - 18) it plans to export 2153936 tons of soybeans, 672337 tons of soybean meal, and 1889800 tons of corn [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and protein meals, the domestic supply pressure is high, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, there is some support, and the market will mainly move in a range [2][3][4]. - For oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while in the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - For sugar, with the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting, the northern hemisphere's main producing countries are expected to increase production, and Brazil's central - southern region's production is at a historical high. A strategy of selling on rebounds in the fourth quarter is recommended [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, including low demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, low downstream industry operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected domestic bumper harvest, the cotton price is likely to decline in the short - term [13][14]. - For eggs, in the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound, and in the long - term, selling on rebounds is advisable [16][17][19]. - For pigs, the supply pressure is high in the fourth quarter. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions, and consider a positive spread strategy after the spot price stabilizes. For far - term contracts, a reverse spread strategy is recommended [20][21]. Summary by Category Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Tuesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 2.1674 million tons this week. Brazil's ANEC expects the country's soybean exports in October to be 7.31 million tons [2][3]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, the market will move in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month. As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2651 million tons, a 1.31% increase, and the palm oil commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons. On Tuesday, domestic oils rebounded. Indonesia is considering implementing DMO for the 2026 B50 policy. Trump considered banning edible oils from China [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar in major regions also declined. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The downstream industry's operating rates were lower than the same period in previous years. The cotton weekly commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a decrease compared to the same period last year and the five - year average [13]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is likely to decline in the short - term [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable, with a few fluctuations. The market supply was normal, and the trading speed increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on near - term contracts in the short - term; expect a medium - term rebound; sell on rebounds in the long - term [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend. The secondary fattening enthusiasm was slowly rising, and the market trading activity was fair [20]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a positive spread strategy after the spot price stabilizes; a reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts [21].