谈及国债买卖，潘功胜指出，去年，中国人民银行落实中央金融工作会议部署，在二级市场开始国债买 卖操作。这是丰富货币政策工具箱、增强国债金融功能、发挥国债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币 政策与财政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。 实践中，人民银行根据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收益率曲线形态变化等情况，灵活开展 国债买卖双向操作，保障货币政策顺畅传导和金融市场平稳运行。今年初，考虑到债券市场供求不平衡 压力较大、市场风险有所累积，中国人民银行暂停了国债买卖。目前，债市整体运行良好，将恢复公开 市场国债买卖操作。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）10月27日，在2025金融街论坛年会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜就"中国宏 观审慎管理体系的建设实践与未来演进"主题发表演讲。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to enhancing the macro-prudential management system to ensure financial stability and effective governance [1] Group 1: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will continuously improve the collaborative and efficient governance mechanism for macro-prudential management [1] - A Macro-Prudential and Financial Stability Committee was established at the beginning of this year to strengthen analysis, communication, and implementation regarding major issues in macro-prudential management and financial stability [1] Group 2: Coordination and Legislation - The PBOC plans to enhance coordination among monetary policy, macro-prudential management, micro-prudential regulation, and fiscal and industrial policies to form a unified approach [1] - There is an emphasis on strict enforcement of financial discipline, market discipline, and regulatory rules to prevent risk spillover and moral hazards [1] - The PBOC aims to accelerate the legislative process for the People's Bank Law and Financial Stability Law to strengthen the legal framework for macro-prudential management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a loose monetary policy by injecting liquidity into the banking system through a 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, alongside a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan in October, consistent with the previous month [1][2]. Group 1 - The PBOC's liquidity injection is aimed at alleviating pressure on the financial system due to the dual challenges of a major tax period and month-end cash flow [2]. - The central bank's actions are also intended to support the issuance of government bonds, with an expected net financing of over 1 trillion yuan in October, as the government has arranged for an additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt [2][3]. - The continuation of MLF operations is expected to facilitate credit expansion and stabilize market expectations, ensuring that medium to long-term market interest rates remain stable [2][3]. Group 2 - The PBOC's recent monetary policy committee meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has continued to implement a net injection of liquidity through MLF operations, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance amid ongoing government bond issuance and economic challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations and Liquidity Injection - On October 27, the PBOC conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1][2]. - With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing in October, the net injection for the month will reach 200 billion yuan, maintaining a high level of liquidity [1][2]. - The total net liquidity injection for October, including 4 trillion yuan from reverse repos, will amount to 600 billion yuan, consistent with the previous month [1][2][3]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance and Economic Support - The current period is characterized by significant government bond issuance, with an additional 500 billion yuan of local government debt planned for October to address existing debt and stimulate effective investment [1][2]. - Analysts expect that the net financing scale of government bonds in October will still reach 1 trillion yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there is a possibility that the PBOC may implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut or increase bond purchases to further release liquidity [5][6]. - The necessity for stable growth has increased, and the PBOC aims to align monetary supply growth with economic growth and inflation expectations [5][6]. - The market liquidity is expected to remain stable and abundant before the end of the year, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [5][6].

Economic Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a focus on enhancing social civilization and improving people's quality of life[2] - An estimated market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan will be added over the next five years through the promotion of key industry upgrades[8] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in the face of challenges[8] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Policies focus on new urbanization infrastructure construction, with an expected investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for underground pipeline renovations during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[9] - The government will strengthen the top-level design and systematic deployment of artificial intelligence, enhancing foundational research and core technology development[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to construct a scientific and stable monetary policy system, ensuring the smooth operation of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets[13] - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to support consumption and effective investment, maintaining financial market stability[14] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 500 billion yuan to local governments to enhance fiscal capacity and support effective investment[15] - This allocation is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to 2024, aimed at addressing existing government investment project debts[15] Real Estate Policy - Recent policies in cities like Chengdu and Chongqing focus on adjusting housing fund loans and promoting smart construction in the housing sector[17] - The issuance of infrastructure REITs is encouraged to support urban renewal projects[17] Trade Relations - There is a potential meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. during the upcoming APEC conference, with ongoing discussions on bilateral trade relations[18] - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to unilateral sanctions imposed by the EU[19]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system to support high-quality economic development, with a focus on precise timing and effectiveness of policy measures [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank will adopt a supportive stance in monetary policy, balancing short-term and long-term goals while ensuring the health of the financial sector [2] - The monetary policy will continue to be "self-centered," addressing both internal and external economic conditions [2] - Experts predict that the central bank will flexibly use tools such as interest rates and reserve requirements to stabilize market expectations [2] Group 2: Liquidity Management - The central bank is expected to enhance liquidity management through various tools, including reverse repos and MLF operations, to support key sectors and strategic areas [3] - There is a suggestion to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, potentially releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The focus will also be on reducing financing costs for enterprises and households to stimulate internal financing demand [3] Group 3: Structural Focus - The next five years will prioritize the development of financial technology, encouraging banks to increase loans for technology and innovation [4] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to direct more funds towards technological innovation and industrial transformation [4] Group 4: Policy Transmission - The central bank aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, with recent data showing a decrease in loan interest rates [5] - Improved communication with the market is crucial for stabilizing expectations and enhancing policy transmission efficiency [6] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to strengthen, supporting both economic growth and structural optimization [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese bond market demonstrated steady growth in 2024, expanding in scale and continuing product innovation while enhancing institutional frameworks and increasing openness to foreign participation, thereby supporting the real economy [1][2]. Economic Overview - The international economy showed a divergent recovery, with the US economy exceeding expectations while Europe faced recession. Global inflation gradually receded but remained uneven across major economies, leading to differentiated monetary policies [1][2]. - China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with stable recovery in consumption and investment, providing a solid foundation for the bond market's development [1][2]. Bond Market Performance - The overall bond market operated smoothly, with issuance reaching 48.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.83%, and total outstanding bonds growing to 156.56 trillion yuan. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 1.68% by year-end [1][2]. - Trading volumes increased, with cash settlement volumes at 416.38 trillion yuan and repurchase settlement volumes at 2,190.66 trillion yuan [1]. Product Innovation - The bond market saw significant product innovations, including the launch of green bonds and new debt financing tools, as well as the successful introduction of TLAC non-capital bonds [2]. Market Structure and Regulation - Continuous improvement in market regulations included enhancements in special bond management, risk prevention, and information disclosure mechanisms, alongside strengthened unified management of credit rating agencies [2]. Foreign Participation and Open Market - The bond market's openness progressed steadily, with optimized channels for foreign institutional participation and record issuance of panda bonds. Mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" were further refined [2]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with continued growth in issuance anticipated. However, external risks such as global debt issues and trade protectionism remain concerns [2].

Investment Focus - The market is focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" as the Central Committee reviews the draft proposal, outlining China's economic and social development blueprint for the next five years[2] - The short-term economic targets for 2025 are emphasized, with a growth target of 5%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand shows slight improvement, with passenger car sales declining at a reduced rate of -1.14% compared to -1.88% in September[2] - External demand remains resilient, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 2004.9, down 5.3% but up 21.2% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production in October is strong, with a reported increase of 84.38%[3] - The real estate and infrastructure sectors remain weak, with a production index of 38.14%[3] Price Performance - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a decline in pork prices, with an overall CPI increase of 2.98%[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) is affected by rising crude oil prices, with a reported increase of 1.75%[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of ordinary government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 6890.5 billion issued, marking an increase of 87.2%[3] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable, with expectations for a potential rate cut of 10-20 basis points by year-end[3] Global Macro and Market - U.S. inflation has decreased to 3.0%, aligning with market expectations and strengthening rate cut pricing[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes the importance of achieving high-quality economic development and outlines specific guidelines for economic and financial reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][4]. Economic Goals and Policies - The session highlights the need to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to maintain the economic foundation and support the recovery momentum [3][4]. - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, with a focus on implementing enterprise support policies and boosting consumption [3][7]. Internal and External Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by complex changes in the development environment, with both strategic opportunities and risks present [4][5]. - The external environment is increasingly challenging due to factors such as rising tariffs from the U.S. and restrictions on high-tech exports, necessitating a focus on self-reliance in technology and strengthening supply chain security [4][5][6]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is set to remain "moderately loose," with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth through targeted measures [7][8]. - Future monetary policy will focus on precise actions, including potential interest rate cuts and structural tools to support innovation and small businesses [8][9]. Policy Coordination - There will be a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies to avoid excessive tightening or loosening, ensuring stability and continuity in financial policies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9]. - The necessity for new growth-stabilizing policies is anticipated, particularly in the fourth quarter, with a focus on fiscal support and monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market [9].

"十五五"时期是我国基本实现社会主义现代化的关键承启阶段，政策以高质量发展为主线，锚定"七大 发展目标"与2035年远景目标，通过"六个坚持"筑牢治理基石。 在形势判断方面，全会认为，"十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，我国发展处于战略机遇和 风险挑战并存、不确定性难以预料因素增多的时期。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，在外部环境方面，主要受科技与产业变革驱动，一段时期以来世界 各国经济发展态势、国际力量格局对比发生深刻调整，我国经济社会发展面临的外部环境也趋于复杂， 挑战性上升。 "这主要包括美国在全球范围内大幅上调关税，对我国的高科技限制措施越来越多，一些国家强调'去风 险'，经济全球化遭遇逆风逆流。这意味着'十五五'期间我国必须实现科技自立自强，强化产业链安全， 更多依靠内需拉动经济增长，加强国家安全体系和能力建设，重点是粮食安全、能源安全和金融安全， 把'安全'上升到新的高度。"王青对《华夏时报》记者分析称。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘佳 北京报道 2025年10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在北京举行。会议明确提出 "十五五" 时期经济社会发展 主要目标，既明确 ...