中国网1月27日讯（记者 白璐）26日，中国金融40人论坛（CF40）举办宏观政策季度报告（2025年四季 度）发布会，主题聚焦重建扩大内需的动力机制。发布会上，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副 所长张斌表示，2025年中国宏观经济处在复苏的早期阶段，但复苏的基础尚不牢固，内生增长的动力尚 未得到有效支撑，需要通过更积极的货币政策来实现经济内生增长动力的改善。 展望未来，张斌认为通过财政政策扩大内需的空间收窄，未来应该更加倚重货币政策。他表示，首先要 充分相信货币政策的重要作用，努力实现通胀目标，同时要充分利用总量政策工具，降低政策利率。 就中国的情况而言，过去逆周期调节主要以财政政策为重，通过财政政策启动公共投资项目，带动总需 求回升，取得了不错的效果。但张斌认为，未来这种做法需要调整。当一个经济体处于工业化高峰阶段 时，经济快速增长，生产率快速提升，城市化快速推进，在这一阶段通过财政政策进行逆周期的公共投 资和支出，既可以稳定总需求，也有利于城市扩张与基础设施的发展。而发展到现今阶段，债务水平和 赤字率有所提升，通过财政政策短期花大钱就会遇到更多困难。"过去，财政的大头是城市扩张，能够 在短期内形成很 ...

但今年货币政策可能不需要"踩太大的油门"。 "2026年是加大逆周期调节、扩大内需非常好的时点，也是非常关键的一年，因为经济已经有一个复苏 向上的势头，政策应该再往前迈一步。"日前，在中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）2025年第四季度宏观政 策报告发布会上，CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌提出，2026年我们 要更多倚重货币政策来扩大内需，激发经济复苏的内生动力。 不过，当前关于宽货币政策力度的分歧依然存在。中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯认为，基于今年 对海外需求、固定资产投资、居民消费，以及政策支持力度等方面较乐观的预期，加上降息的制约因素 较多，今年货币政策可能不需要"踩太大的油门"。 扩内需应更多倚重货币政策 在此背景下，他建议，当前经济复苏需要从"政府主导"转向"政府主导+市场自发力量"双轮驱动，货币 政策在其中的作用尤为关键。对于财政政策，张斌认为，财政政策应该从结构上进一步优化，除以旧换 新等方向外，更多地"把钱花在老百姓想花钱都解决不了的事情上"。 CF40成员、北京大学国家发展研究院院长黄益平认为，当前，除了供强需弱进而扩内需的压力，缓解 低通胀压力同样迫切。从国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on relying more on monetary policy to expand domestic demand rather than fiscal policy is highlighted, as monetary policy can effectively influence individual behaviors and market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at CF40, argues that expanding domestic demand through fiscal spending is limited by practical constraints, such as the need for homeowner consent for projects like elevator installations in old residential buildings [3]. - The report indicates that from 2018 to 2021, the average mortgage interest rate in China was 5.5%, while the average growth rate of second-hand housing prices was 4.1%, resulting in a net cost of home buying at 1.4%, which was lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [3]. - In contrast, from 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage interest rate is projected to drop to 3.9%, with second-hand housing prices expected to decline at an annual rate of -4.8%, leading to a net cost of home buying rising to 8.7%, making buying less attractive compared to renting [3]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - Lowering interest rates can reduce the cost gap between buying and renting, thereby increasing residents' willingness to purchase homes [4]. - Monetary policy is seen as a more sustainable approach to expanding domestic demand by improving expectations and optimizing the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investments and consumer spending [4]. - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates, which can enhance market confidence and influence economic behavior [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply in January showed a return to front - loaded efforts, with increased issuance volume and a longer - term structure. The incremental supply mainly came from local bonds. The overall supply pressure in the first quarter remained high, with front - loaded rhythm and longer duration characteristics. The core of the phased impact was the increase in supply concentration and the rise in the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds. Although the primary market enthusiasm for bonds has limited recovery, the carrying capacity is temporarily stable, and the issuance and carrying environment will improve with the return of potential allocation forces. Attention should be paid to the micro - situation's impact on primary pricing and secondary sentiment in the short term, and the demand change trend of the term structure under the normal state of high supply in the medium term [2][4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. January Government Bond Supply: Return of Front - Loaded Efforts and Longer Issuance Terms - **Scale and Rhythm**: In January 2026, the government bond issuance volume increased significantly compared to the same period last year, with a front - loaded trend. The total net financing was about 115.619 billion yuan, of which local bond net financing was about 72.944 billion yuan, contributing most of the incremental supply. Compared with the average level from 2020 to 2024, the net financing in January 2026 was slightly higher [9]. - **Term Structure**: In January 2026, the supply of treasury bonds showed an overall increase in all terms, with the medium - and long - term becoming the main increment. The proportion of 30 - year treasury bonds in the total issuance continued to decline. For local bonds, the issuance scale increased significantly year - on - year, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remained stable, and the weighted term increased from 16.4 years to 17.7 years, indicating that the market carrying pressure was more concentrated on 30 - year ultra - long - term varieties [10][12]. - **Issuance Tendering**: In January 2026, the issuance of local bonds remained stable, but the intensity of capital participation declined. The overall multiple of local bond issuance tenders decreased, and the issuance relied more on passive funds. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds converged, indicating that the supply - demand relationship of local ultra - long - term bonds remained relatively stable [13][15]. 2. Outlook for the First Quarter: The Duration Pressure on the Supply Side Needs to be Re - balanced - **Issuance Plan**: In 2026, the total government bond supply will remain high. The net financing of treasury bonds in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of 50 - 150 billion yuan, and the net financing of local bonds is expected to be 245 - 247 billion yuan per quarter. The issuance intensity of treasury bonds is adjusted through single - period scale, and attention should be paid to the planned scale of the 2 - year treasury bond issued on February 4. The expected issuance scale of local bonds from January to March is about 244 billion yuan, with a front - high and back - low net financing characteristic. The subsequent local bonds may continue the high - duration issuance feature, and the demand side will be under continuous pressure [16][18]. - **Institutional Demand**: The equity allocation of insurance funds has a phased squeezing effect on the ultra - long - term, but there is marginal repair space. The allocation of insurance funds to ultra - long - term local bonds has strong seasonality, and the buying intensity usually recovers gradually during the year. The expansion of the insurance liability side provides a basis for subsequent bond allocation. The potential expansion space of the insurance side can support the subsequent ultra - long - term supply [20][23]. - **Spread Comparison**: Since January 2026, the pricing of ultra - long - term local bonds has shown the characteristics of spread convergence and stable repair of issuance interest rates. The deviation between the issuance interest rate and the secondary market yield of 30 - year local bonds has narrowed, and the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has fallen back to the historical average range, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is gradually re - balanced [26]. - **Policy Tone**: The 2026 fiscal policy continues to be more proactive, with high - intensity in total amount, more focused in structure, stronger efficiency orientation, and parallel debt reduction and development. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and structure of fiscal incremental arrangements and the subsequent issuance plan [27].

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-27 超长段修复，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（ ...

大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 全文摘要 2026年初，中国股市展现强劲回升势头，背后推动力量包括企业盈利改善、科技创新加速以及政策面的支持。尽 管全球环境充满不确定性，摩根斯坦利仍对MSCI中国指数及其他新兴市场持乐观态度，预计2024年中后市场开始 反弹，强调了中国股市在风险调整后收益上的相对吸引力。对话还预测了亚洲主要股市的未来目标点位，并分析 了影响中国股市的七大关键因素，包括盈利预测、行业展望、宏观经济环境、房地产 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, and the T2603 contract decreased by 0.01% with an increase in open interest. The IRRs of CTD bonds corresponding to major Treasury bond futures contracts were at low levels, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds also showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 0.87bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 40.57bp. Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan all declined [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield dropped to 1.816%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of 7.8 billion yuan. Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased, and the money market remained relatively stable. The US GDP in Q3 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. The Japanese bonds stabilized, and the US bond yields rose first and then fell. The 2025 GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled, but there were slowdowns in some economic data. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank announced relevant policies, and the Treasury bond futures prices stabilized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.392, 102.416, 105.850, 105.895, 108.180, 108.180, 112.51, and 112.68 respectively. The price changes were - 0.026, - 0.034, - 0.030, - 0.005, - 0.015, - 0.005, 0.210, and 0.210, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.03%, 0.00%, - 0.01%, 0.00%, 0.19%, and 0.19% [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interests of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 67591, 7715, 146300, 32282, 246340, 29448, 141712, and 37434 respectively. The trading volumes were 29013, 2055, 47329, 6291, 59708, 7785, 72096, and 7627 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 1505, 711, - 905, 1370, - 1394, 1879, 1223, and 838 respectively [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.024, - 0.045, 0.000, and - 0.170, with previous values of - 0.032, - 0.020, 0.010, and - 0.170 respectively [2]. - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRRs of CTD bonds corresponding to major contracts were 1.329, 1.4849, 1.3355, 1.5361, 1.3663, 1.4884, 1.3571, and 1.3439 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 had yesterday's values of 1.4200, 1.5430, 1.4898, 1.6245, 1.4210, 1.6160, 1.51, and 1.64 respectively, with an increase of 2.4bp, 5.2bp, 2.44bp, 8.85bp, 4.6bp, 3.5bp, 1bp, and 9bp respectively compared to the previous day [2]. - **Yields of Chinese Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.29, 1.29, 1.40, 1.60, 1.70, 1.83, 2.27, and 2.27 respectively, with changes of - 0.01bp, 1.42bp, 0.88bp, 0.08bp, 0.28bp, - 0.87bp, - 0.5bp, and - 1.9bp respectively. The yield spreads of 10 - 2, 10 - 5, 5 - 2, and 30 - 10 were 40.57bp, 29.55bp, 11.02bp, and 44.40bp respectively [2]. Overseas Market - **Yields of Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of US 2Y, US 5Y, US 10Y, US 30Y, German 2Y, German 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.56, 3.82, 4.22, 4.80, 2.110, 2.940, 1.277, and 2.236 respectively, with changes of - 4.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, 1.5bp, and - 1.7bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads were - 215.9bp, - 222.4bp, - 239.5bp, - 253.1bp, - 70.9bp, - 111.5bp, 12.4bp, and - 41.1bp respectively [2]. Macro News and Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 26, the central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal was 7.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP in Q3 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. China's 2025 GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down to 0.9%, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by real estate development investment [3]. - **Policy Announcements**: The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and expenditure volume would remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a certain space for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [3]. - **Other News**: Policies to expand inbound consumption, start the construction of national digital trade demonstration zones, and optimize the implementation of consumer goods replacement will be introduced. The bond connect company expanded its service scope to support overseas investors' cross - border repurchase and offshore RMB bond repurchase business. The US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada reached a new trade agreement with China [3].

固收-债市平论 20260126 摘要 央行通过 MLF 净投放 7,000 亿元，显著提振债券市场，但未来利率下 行节奏或将放缓，10 年期国债收益率下限预计在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡， 大银行协助央行控制下限。 2 月份利率预计震荡，信用市场偏强，建议交易盘关注 3-5 年二级资本 债，配置盘可拉长久期，关注超长期利率债和 5 年以上二级资本债；3 月后利率仍有较大机会，建议以时间换空间。 2026 年财政政策总量增加和政府负债水平较低提振市场预期，但财政 增量预计不会超预期，支出更注重结构和效用，如支持民间投资和中小 微企业贷款贴息。 1 月政府融资约 1.2 万亿元，其中国债 0.47 万亿元，地方政府债超 0.6 万亿元。关键期限国债发行量增加，30 年国债认购热情高涨，需求端表 现强劲，地方债发行边际修复。 开年以来信用市场表现强劲，3-5 年二级资本债热度较高，市场倾向于 博弈确定性并获取票息收入。一季度摊余成本法估值的再配置规模增加， 3-4 月信用债仍具确定性，建议关注 3-5 年二永资本。 Q&A 近期债券市场收益率下行的主要原因是什么？ 近期债券市场收益率下行主要是由于前期供给压力有 ...

"2026年，我们认为在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。"中国金融四十 人研究院执行院长郭凯认为，2026年主要发达经济体的需求较大概率继续保持稳健增长，叠加中美经贸 关系有望在短期内企稳，中国经济面临的外部环境在边际改善。此外，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策延续，为经济增长提供有力支撑。 上述报告称，综合现有宏观指标表现，中国经济虽面临多重挑战，但仍表现出一系列积极变化。金融市 场较2024年有明显改善，股票、人民币汇率等关键金融资产价格表现强劲。 中国金融四十人论坛资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌强调了货币政策的作 用，他表示，要坚定市场信心，要有明确的态度和尽量少的目标。 中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)26日在北京举行2025年第四季度宏观政策报告发布会。报告指出，要持续保 持经济复苏态势，需要更加积极的逆周期政策。财政政策要保持支出力度，货币政策是激活内需的关 键。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) ...

Group 1 - UBS reports that despite strong overall economic data, growth sources are extremely narrow, with most of the real economy in a state of weakness or contraction, except for the AI and technology sectors [1][5] - The labor market expansion has significantly slowed, with actual employment shrinking when excluding the healthcare sector [1][6] - The current asset prices are based on the dual pillars of sustained AI investment and strong consumption from the wealthy, leading to a warning that any downturn in AI investment could trigger a recession with a 50% probability [3][15] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma between maintaining independence and rescuing the labor market, predicting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% [4] - The market currently underestimates the likelihood of a rate cut in March, with only about 16% probability priced in, while UBS believes the chances are higher due to potential labor report weaknesses [4] - Political pressures are mounting on the Federal Reserve, which may lead to delays in necessary rate cuts to avoid perceptions of yielding to political influence [4] Group 3 - The growth of the U.S. economy is heavily reliant on AI-related investments, with a 17% increase in AI-related equipment investment over the past four quarters, while other equipment investments have declined by 1% [5] - Non-residential structure investment has contracted for six consecutive quarters, and residential investment has declined in four of the last five quarters [5] - The wealth distribution is increasingly polarized, with stock market wealth reaching a record 37% of total household wealth, benefiting high-income groups while others face inflation and stagnant real incomes [5] Group 4 - The labor market has deteriorated significantly, with an average monthly decrease of 41,000 jobs in the private sector when excluding healthcare and social assistance [6] - Broader labor utilization indicators are rising, indicating a more severe weakness in the labor market than headline data suggests [6] - Current employment growth is below the breakeven point needed to maintain stable unemployment rates, highlighting the extent of labor market weakness [6] Group 5 - Tariff policies are creating significant macroeconomic headwinds, with the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) rising to 13.2%, effectively imposing a 1.1% tax on GDP [10] - This has led to a rebound in inflation from 2.61% in April 2025 to 2.91% in August 2025, with expectations of inflation peaking in summer 2026 before gradually declining [10] - Tariffs are expected to significantly hinder real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, limiting the Federal Reserve's policy options [10] Group 6 - Fiscal policy is expected to provide short-term support amid weak private sector demand, with a projected surge in personal tax refunds of approximately $50 to $60 billion due to the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" [11] - This fiscal stimulus is anticipated to shift from negative to positive in 2026, providing a bottom support for economic expansion despite underlying weaknesses [11] - UBS believes that as long as fiscal support continues, the economy is unlikely to collapse immediately [11]