Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement further monetary easing, with an 80.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by disappointing employment data and pressure from the Trump administration [1][2] - Gold is positioned to break out of its current trading range due to dual support from rising rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, with a recommendation to buy on dips [2][3] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, increasing de-globalization, and a weakening dollar, which are expected to support central banks' continued net purchases of gold [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for gold is anticipated to rise as global trade uncertainties and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence grow, potentially leading to a significant rebound in gold prices [3] - WisdomTree forecasts that gold could reach $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by the erosion of the U.S. reputation as a reliable trading partner and the increasing demand for hard assets [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's July meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The Fed's view on economic growth has become more cautious, and concerns about future uncertainties have increased. There are significant internal differences within the Fed, but Powell is still very cautious about rate cuts, which require more reasons such as a further slowdown in the labor market [3][6][16]. - After the release of the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were relatively small. The Fed has not been the core factor in market trading recently. The Fed's hawkish signals have led to a decline in market rate - cut expectations, a significant rebound in the US dollar index, a notable decline in precious metals, and a slight decline in US stocks [7][9]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but more reasons are needed [10][16]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. US stocks are expected to continue the upward trend but with accumulating risks; the decline of long - term US Treasury yields is restricted; precious metals are in adjustment and need new driving factors; commodities are supported by trade and economic factors; the US dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle; and A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential [17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 July Fed Meeting Highlights - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two Fed governors opposing the decision and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed's view on the economy has become more cautious, and internal differences have increased. Powell needs to balance the differences among core members and the pressure from Trump. The Fed has not yet cut rates, but a policy inflection point may come if the economy cools or political pressure intensifies [3]. - The meeting did not provide economic forecasts or the dot - plot. Powell said that the overall impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation remains to be seen, and the Fed has not made a decision on September's monetary policy, which depends on employment and inflation data [4]. - The meeting continued the "wait - and - see" tone, did not give clear guidance on the rate - cut timing, and still faced the problem of balancing employment and inflation risks. Powell's speech sent a more hawkish signal to cool market rate - cut expectations [6]. 3.2 Price Movements of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were small. US stocks declined slightly, with the S&P 500 down 0.37%, the Dow Jones down 0.74%, and the Nasdaq down 0.03%. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year yield up 5.16 basis points and the 2 - year yield up 6.56 basis points. The US dollar index rose about 0.9%. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.06%, and precious metals such as gold and platinum declined significantly [7][8][9]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - In July, the global trade situation eased, and the US economy remained strong with rising inflation data and increased global risk appetite. The US labor market was robust in June, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls and a lower - than - expected unemployment rate. The CPI began to rebound under the influence of tariffs [10][11]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The Fed is under pressure to cut rates, but Powell is cautious, and a rate cut requires more reasons, especially a slowdown in the labor market [16]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Movements - US stocks are expected to continue rising due to factors such as trade easing, positive fiscal policies, and the prosperity of emerging industries, but risks are accumulating [17]. - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds has remained around 4.4% since the second quarter. The decline of long - term yields is restricted by the potential rise in long - term inflation [17]. - Precious metals' safe - haven and allocation values are strengthened by "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization," but they are in adjustment and need new driving factors. Silver is expected to follow gold's fluctuations [17]. - Commodities are supported by trade easing and the US economic resilience. A potential Fed rate cut and China's "anti - involution" policy may also provide upward momentum [17][18]. - The US dollar index rebounded significantly in July but may be in a long - term downward cycle. The RMB exchange rate has limited depreciation pressure and may enter an appreciation channel [18]. - A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential. Although the current economic recovery momentum is not strong, there is room for valuation repair and an expected increase in corporate profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, in the short term, they may continue to correct, and investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. - The supply and demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, they may continue to fluctuate sharply, and investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. - In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply, and after the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - The crude oil market is complex and uncertain, and the main crude oil contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil market in Asia has sufficient supply, and the main fuel oil contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. - For natural rubber, after the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. - PVC may fluctuate strongly in the short term [31]. - Urea may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. - PTA may have a correction risk in the short term and generally maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. - The soda ash market may continue to adjust at a high level in supply, and the price may be under pressure [42]. - For glass, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. - The caustic soda market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic, and the price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. - The pulp market has supply pressure, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. - For lithium carbonate, it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. - For copper, pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. - Consider long - position opportunities for palm oil [63]. - Consider long - position opportunities for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [66]. - For cotton, it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, and it may run in an interval [71]. - For apples, go short after a rebound [75]. - For live pigs, consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. - For logs, the market may be driven by relevant policies, and the inventory is slightly destocked [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 126 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the same day. The central bank requires to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The US non - farm data was poor, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend market and should be treated with caution [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The government will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected Fed rate cut are favorable for the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy expectations dominate the short - term market, and in the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the rebar price. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. Policy expectations affect the market, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The limit - position measure of the Dalian Commodity Exchange is the direct cause of the decline. In the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. Investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased recently, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak. After the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data shows changes in the net long positions of speculators. The Baker Hughes report shows a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs. The OPEC + meeting may increase production in September. The market is complex and uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated in an interval. A large amount of fuel oil is expected to arrive in Asia in August, resulting in sufficient supply in the Asian market. The main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The macro - market sentiment has cooled down, and the supply - side disturbance has temporarily slowed down. After the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate strongly. The production has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [31]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The supply is still high, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply changes little in the short term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may have a correction risk and maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. In the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is general. It may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The number of device overhauls has increased, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The downstream glass supply has changed. The supply may continue to adjust at a high level, and the price may be under pressure [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is stable, and the destocking speed has increased. The market sentiment has cooled down, and it should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic. The price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand of downstream products is weak. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has cooled down, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still high, and the demand has improved, but the trading is still cold. The supply of the ore end is uncertain, and it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward. The US tariff policy and supply - demand factors affect the copper price. The copper price is in a downward trend in the interval, and pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of the ore end is tight, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate [58]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the demand of downstream products is not optimistic. The inventory is relatively high, and it is expected to fluctuate [59]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The weather in the main production areas is suitable, and the market has good expectations for a bumper harvest. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure of soybean oil is emerging. For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil futures were affected by the exchange rate and tariff policies. The export volume in July decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long - position opportunities [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic import volume of rapeseed and its products has changed. The inventory situation is different. Consider long - position opportunities [66]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The US cotton production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic production is expected to increase. The global supply and demand are expected to be loose, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. Sugar - Domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The sugar production in Brazil has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. It is recommended to observe, and it may run in an interval [71]. Apples - Domestic apple futures fell. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Go short after a rebound [75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The US and Brazilian corn are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic supply and demand are approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The relevant policy may drive the market [86].

上周是A股市场波动较大的一周，上证指数一度冲高到3636.17点，周五收盘回落至3559.95点。上证指 数、沪深300、创业板指均收阴结束，分别下跌了-0.94%、-1.75%、-0.74%。究其原因，一方面是上证 3600点是去年10月8日的前高，部分资金或选择兑现收益。另一方面是美国关税8.1生效，冲击全球资本 市场。上周五欧美股市全线收跌，国际油价跌近3%，纳指跌超2%，热门科技股普跌。 短期，全球市场需要时间消化和释放关税带来的利空压力，属于理性调整的范畴。展望全年，中国权益 市场（A/H股）或仍有望成为全球表现最好的权益市场之一。 就港股而言，在"美国没那么好"与"中国没那么差"的叙事中，人和钱从美国流向中国，H股是唯一以美 元计价的中国资产，且国内优质资产持续登陆港股，增强吸引力。事实上，今年以来港股市场海外资金 流入同比翻倍。 投资有风险，投资需谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 就A股而言，尽管全球不稳定因素（如中东、印巴）频发，但国内的经济是稳增长的，中国仍旧是全球 最大的工业国，且在"高精尖"的领域不断实现突破，产业结构的调整和升级未受到外部环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the global economic order since the 1980s, highlighting the impact of globalization and free trade, the rise of "America First" ideology, and the challenges faced by China in this changing landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Globalization and Economic Order - Since the 1980s, globalization and free trade have formed the foundation of the current global economic order, driven by neoliberal reforms initiated by leaders like Reagan and Thatcher [3]. - The principle of "capital supremacy" underpins the liberal global economic order, advocating for the free flow of goods, technology, and capital across borders [3]. Group 2: Impact on American Society - While globalization has benefited the U.S. economy, the gains have been concentrated among multinational corporations and elite groups, leading to significant losses for the broader American populace [4]. - The closure of approximately 60,000 factories since 2001 has resulted in the loss of 4.8 million manufacturing jobs, exacerbating social inequalities [4]. Group 3: Political Response and Ideological Shift - The "America First" movement, associated with Trumpism, emerged as a reaction against the perceived failures of globalization, advocating for the interests of the working class and small businesses [4][6]. - Tariffs are viewed as a strategic tool to counteract the loss of comparative advantage in manufacturing, aiming to bring jobs back to the U.S. and stimulate economic growth [5]. Group 4: Biden Administration's Approach - The Biden administration has continued some of Trump's economic policies, reflecting the political reality that defending worker interests has become a central theme in American politics [9][10]. - Despite efforts to correct course, such as reducing tariffs, the Biden administration has faced challenges in reversing the trend of de-globalization [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Most financial and commodity markets are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Fixed - Income (Bonds) - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, so one should remain cautious [5][6]. 2. Equity Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Although the previous trading day saw mixed results in stock index futures, considering that domestic asset valuations are low and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still favored, and one can consider going long on stock index futures [8]. 3. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. Due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [10]. 4. Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell sharply. The White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products led to a sharp decline in US copper, and Shanghai and London copper followed suit. The supply of spot goods is tight, but the support factors for copper prices are weakening [57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the expectation of tin ore resumption of production in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still in short supply, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [58]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate. The consumption situation is not optimistic, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [59]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the dominant factor in the market, and iron ore prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the short term, it may continue to correct, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [14][15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the main factor affecting the market. After short - term fluctuations, the prices of finished products are expected to return to the guidance of the supply - demand logic of the industry. The real estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [12]. 5. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards. Due to factors such as the US - South Korea trade agreement, geopolitical risks, and US sanctions on Iran, crude oil prices are expected to be supported, and one can consider going long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is sufficient, but the signing of trade agreements between the US and other countries is beneficial to the shipping market, so one can consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in the red. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber fell. Supply is affected by rainfall, and demand is stable. It is expected that natural rubber will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will follow the spot market fluctuations, while in the medium term, a bullish view is maintained [37]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: On the previous trading day, PX fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It may oscillate and adjust, and one should participate with caution [39][40]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA fell. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the cost of crude oil provides some support. It may oscillate, and one should participate within a range [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory decline provides some support. One should be cautious about the upside space and participate within a range [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber fell. The short - term supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It may follow the cost to oscillate, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell. The recent increase in equipment maintenance has led to inventory reduction, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash fell. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [47]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass fell. The inventory is decreasing, but the market is still in a state of multi - empty game. One should continue to pay attention to spot trading and inventory changes [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, while the demand growth is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [50][51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the supply from the mining end is uncertain. One should mainly watch and control risks [55]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal fell. The good weather in the main production areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. One can consider going long on soybean meal after the adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [60][61]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, but the domestic consumption is increasing. One can consider going long on palm oil [62][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance. The inventory of rapeseed is decreasing, and one can consider going long on rapeseed - related products [64][65]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. One is advised to short the far - month contracts in batches at high levels [66][68]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated. The expected global bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected reduction in production has been disproved, and the market is expected to be affected by anti - involution policies. It is recommended to wait and see [74][76]. - **Live Pigs**: On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the demand in summer is weak. One can consider closing out short positions gradually [78][79]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in July, and one can consider a 9 - 10 spread reversal strategy [80][82]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply - demand of corn is approaching balance, and the price has support at low levels. Corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The inventory of logs is decreasing slightly, and relevant policies may drive the forestry market. [88][90]

Core Viewpoints - The current capital market is undergoing unprecedented changes and challenges, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation through professional research and investment strategies [1] - The Chinese public fund industry is transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality development, injecting new vitality into the market [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding supply constraints over demand in resource stocks, highlighting a shift from "cyclical commodities" to "strategic assets" [4][15] Group 1: Insights from Fund Managers - Manager Guan Haoyang from Western Benefit Fund believes that investing in resource stocks is crucial at this time, where supply is more important than demand, and beta is more significant than individual stocks [4][15] - Manager Jiang Yong from Haifutong Fund emphasizes a long-term investment approach, aiming to provide a good holding experience for investors without chasing short-term market trends [22][27] - Manager Zhu Liang from Lianbo Fund highlights the importance of focusing on structural opportunities such as dividends, new productive forces, and new consumption during the critical transformation period of the Chinese capital market [37][40] Group 2: Guan Haoyang's Investment Strategy - Guan Haoyang categorizes resource stocks into four types: cyclical assets, thematic assets, value assets, and dividend assets, each requiring a different investment approach [8][9][10][11] - The strategy leans towards cyclical assets, with a focus on industrial and precious metals, aiming to enhance product elasticity [12] - Guan believes that the current commodity cycle, which started in 2020, still holds opportunities due to supply-side constraints [15][19] Group 3: Jiang Yong's Investment Philosophy - Jiang Yong adopts a strategy of "extreme diversification + safety margin" to manage potential market volatility, focusing on low-valuation and high-profit certainty targets [23][26] - He emphasizes the importance of absolute returns and aims to provide a stable long-term investment experience for fund holders [27][31] - Jiang's approach includes a balanced distribution across industries and a focus on individual stock diversification, ensuring no single stock exceeds 1% of total holdings [28][29] Group 4: Zhu Liang's Market Outlook - Zhu Liang notes that the A-share market is showing signs of bottoming out, with improvements in policy, structure, and fundamentals [36][39] - He identifies three main investment lines: dividend stocks, new productive forces, and new consumption, which are expected to provide significant investment potential [40][42] - Zhu emphasizes the recovery of the private economy as a key observation dimension, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and investment confidence [43][44]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macroeconomic recovery momentum remains to be strengthened, and it is expected that monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, so a certain degree of caution is advised [7]. - The domestic economy remains stable, but the recovery momentum of the domestic macro - economy is not strong. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the gold - buying behavior of central banks, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, after short - term fluctuations, the price is expected to return to the guidance of industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar futures, while the steel industry's stable growth policy may be a positive factor. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply - demand pattern remains strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level buying opportunities after the correction [14]. - For coking coal and coke, after the sharp decline, the market may return to the industrial supply - demand logic. It is necessary to focus on the actual impact of policies on coking coal supply, and it is advisable for investors to temporarily wait and see [16]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is still high. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to exit long positions when the market continues to rise, and consider long positions in the low - level support range if there is a decline [19]. - For crude oil, although the decline in the number of active oil rigs in the US provides some support for oil prices, the reduction of net long positions by CFTC fund managers shows a bearish sentiment. It is advisable to pay attention to the long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][23]. - For fuel oil, the supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but the trade agreements between the US and other regions are beneficial to the shipping market, so it is advisable to pay attention to the long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26][28]. - For natural rubber, due to supply disturbances and stable demand, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [29][30]. - For PVC, although the supply exceeds demand, the downward space is limited. It is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [31][34]. - For urea, the short - term market may fluctuate, but it is advisable to take a bullish view in the medium term [35]. - For PX, the short - term supply - demand balance remains tight, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost of crude oil and macro - policies [36]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, and the cost of crude oil provides some support. There may be a callback risk in the short term, and it is advisable to participate within a range [37]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply pressure increases, but the inventory is at a low level. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [38]. - For short - fiber, the short - term supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and it is necessary to control risks [39]. - For bottle - chip, the raw material price fluctuates, the device maintenance increases, and the inventory decreases. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and it is necessary to control risks [40]. - For soda ash, the supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, and it is advisable to treat it rationally [42]. - For glass, the inventory reduction speed has increased, but the long - term focus is on the elimination of old production capacity. It is advisable to treat it cautiously [43]. - For caustic soda, the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the demand growth is limited. It is advisable to control risks [44][45]. - For pulp, the supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to pay attention to policies and actual transactions [46][48]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand pattern of excess remains unchanged, and there is uncertainty in the supply side. It is advisable to watch more and move less and control risks [49][50]. - For copper, the copper market is affected by factors such as US tariffs and weak Chinese stimulus policies. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - For tin, the supply is tight, and the consumption is not optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [54][55]. - For nickel, the supply is in an excess pattern, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the cost provides support. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment and long - position exit opportunities for soybean oil at high levels [57][58]. - For palm oil, due to factors such as price increases and potential import growth, it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [59][60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, considering supply and demand factors, it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for rapeseed products [61][62]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to short the far - month contracts in batches at high levels [63][64][65]. - For sugar, the Brazilian production is lower than expected, while Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. It is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. - For apples, the expected production reduction is disproven, and it is advisable to wait and see [69][70]. - For live pigs, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to gradually take profit on previous short positions [71][72]. - For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in July, and it is advisable to consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [73][75]. - For corn and starch, the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options for the near - month corn contract. Corn starch follows the corn market [76][78]. - For logs, the inventory shows a slight reduction, and relevant policies may drive the forestry market [80][81]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.40%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 158.5 billion yuan [5]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts changing by 0.04%, 0.28%, - 0.42%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 773.78 with a 0.30% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 9,192 with a - 0.03% change [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were reported [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures declined slightly. The PB powder and Super Special powder port spot prices were reported [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The recent sharp decline was due to the position - limit measure of coking coal futures [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.42% to 6116 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.77% to 6008 yuan/ton [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Relevant data on CFTC positions, Baker Hughes rig numbers, and OPEC meetings were reported [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil spot spread was stable, and some companies' sales information was reported [24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.67%. The raw material price, supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.20%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.71%. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.04%. The supply, demand, and cost - profit situations were reported [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.17%. The supply and demand situations were reported [35]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 0.66%. The supply, demand, and cost situations were reported [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 0.41%. The supply, demand, and profit situations were reported [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract fell 0.03%. The supply and demand situations were reported [39]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The supply and demand situations were reported [40]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day's night session, the main 2509 contract closed at 1292 yuan/ton, down 3.08%. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [41][42]. Glass - The previous trading day's night session, the main 2509 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton, down 4.03%. The production line, inventory, and market situations were reported [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2613 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply, demand, and profit situations were reported [44]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 5326 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. The supply, demand, and price situations were reported [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.43% to 70600 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situations were reported [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose and then fell. The spot price and market situation were reported [52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated, down 0.39%. The supply and demand situations were reported [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 0.9%. The supply and demand situations were reported [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 1.21% to 3010 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.81% to 8240 yuan/ton. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil closed up on Wednesday. The export, inventory, and consumption situations were reported [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The domestic import, supply, and demand situations were reported [61][62]. Cotton - The previous day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global and domestic supply - demand situations were reported [63][64]. Sugar - The previous day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The global and domestic supply - demand situations were reported [66][67]. Apples - The previous day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The production and inventory situations were reported [69]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs was 13.93 yuan/kg. The supply and demand situations were reported [71]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was 3.18 yuan/jin, and the main - selling area egg price was 3.47 yuan/jin. The supply and demand situations were reported [73]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.26% to 2312 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.45% to 2683 yuan/ton. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76][77]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 825.0 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [79][80]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Policies - The US-China trade talks in Sweden resulted in a 90-day extension of the tariff relief period, contrasting with the EU and Japan's acceptance of new tariffs under US pressure[3] - The US has imposed a 15% tariff on EU imports, while the EU committed to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy products[3] - Japan agreed to a 15% tariff on US goods and pledged to invest $550 billion in the US, highlighting the differences in trade negotiations compared to China[3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The US's universal tariff policy may lead to increased import prices and reduced demand, impacting domestic production costs[4] - The US economy shows resilience with strong retail and labor market data, indicating sustained domestic demand despite tariff pressures[4] - European and Japanese economies, heavily reliant on exports to the US, face risks of being undermined by US tariff policies due to their lack of effective domestic demand stimulation[4] Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China's dual approach to the US tariff war focuses on maintaining the integrity and competitiveness of its supply chain while stimulating domestic consumption and investment[5] - The extension of the tariff relief period may alleviate some downward pressure on China's exports in the second half of the year[5] - Future economic policies in China will prioritize resolving real estate and local debt risks, expanding fiscal stimulus to boost domestic consumption, and encouraging effective investment[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing inheritance dispute within the Zong family, particularly focusing on the legal battle involving the heirs of China's former richest man, Zong Qinghou, and the implications for HSBC, the bank managing a significant trust fund related to the case [3][4]. Group 1: HSBC's Business Strategy - HSBC has undergone a significant restructuring, focusing on profitability by divesting non-core assets in regions like Canada, Russia, and Argentina while expanding in India [7][8]. - The bank's Hong Kong subsidiary is a major profit center, contributing 63.4% of HSBC's total pre-tax profit in 2024, highlighting the importance of the Hong Kong market to HSBC's overall strategy [7][9]. - The wealth management segment of HSBC has shown strong profitability, with a profit margin of 44.4%, outperforming the investment banking segment, which has a profit margin of 40.8% [12][13]. Group 2: Organizational Changes - HSBC is restructuring its business segments to enhance service delivery, allowing for a more integrated approach to client needs, particularly for high-net-worth individuals [14][15]. - The new organizational structure aims to provide comprehensive services to clients, combining wealth management and corporate banking under a unified framework [13][14]. Group 3: Leadership and Governance - The current chairman, Mark Tucker, is set to leave HSBC, creating uncertainty regarding succession and leadership continuity [21][22]. - The search for a new CEO has faced challenges, with potential candidates declining offers, indicating the difficulty in finding a suitable leader for such a large and complex organization [22].