Group 1 - The article discusses the recent strong upward trend in gold and silver prices, with London gold breaking through $4,300 and reaching a historical high of $4,380.79 per ounce, while London silver hit a record high of $54.429 [3][4] - The main trading narrative for the precious metals market has shifted from trade policy uncertainties to expectations of monetary and fiscal easing by the Federal Reserve, especially following the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs reached a record high in September, indicating a growing interest among investors to hedge against risks, despite overall positive market sentiment [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights that the recent rally in precious metals began in late August, driven by multiple favorable events, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [8][9] - The article notes that the silver market is experiencing structural tightness, with rental rates for silver surging above 30%, driven by increased investment demand and seasonal demand from India [4][10] - The analysis indicates that the current bull market for precious metals is likely to continue, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and the macroeconomic backdrop of persistent supply-demand imbalances [6][56] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the changing dynamics in the gold market, with new trading centers emerging in the Middle East and China, which are reshaping the traditional gold trading landscape [21][22] - It discusses the significant debt issues facing major economies, particularly the U.S., where federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential inflationary pressures [24][30] - The article also addresses the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the potential impact of political pressures on its independence and the resulting effects on inflation and gold prices [35][37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The current macro - data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased [6]. - **Overall Market**: Different sectors show diverse trends. Some sectors are expected to have no clear trend, some may experience increased volatility, and others may face supply - demand imbalances affecting their prices. 3. Summary by Commodity Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts fell by 0.14% and 0.06% respectively [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures fell [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be gradually closed to take profits [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: Gold and silver futures rose on the previous trading day, with gold up 0.63% and silver up 0.43% [12]. - **Outlook**: The rise has been significant, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit - taking [13][14]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly on the previous trading day [15]. - **Outlook**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar. Investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds, with attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: Iron ore futures slightly corrected on the previous trading day [18]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly on the previous trading day [20]. - **Outlook**: They may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [21][22]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: Manganese silicon futures fell 0.21%, and silicon iron futures rose 1.60% on the previous trading day [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply may remain in excess. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss zone [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: INE crude oil slightly rebounded on the previous trading day [25]. - **Outlook**: The CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on the future of crude oil. The main contract should be temporarily observed [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: Fuel oil fluctuated upward on the previous trading day, moving away from recent lows [28]. - **Outlook**: Singapore's fuel oil sales decreased in September, but the war in Ukraine supports prices. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [29][30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: Synthetic rubber futures rose 3.05% on the previous trading day [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate in a fluctuating manner [32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: Natural rubber futures rose on the previous trading day, with the main contract up 0.27% and 20 - grade rubber up 1.90% [33]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [34][35]. PVC - **Performance**: PVC futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [36]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [36][39]. Urea - **Performance**: Urea futures closed flat on the previous trading day [40]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to exports and cost changes [40][42]. PX - **Performance**: PX futures rose 1.27% on the previous trading day [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance may loosen, and it may adjust weakly in a fluctuating manner. Attention should be paid to the PXN spread and macro - policies [43]. PTA - **Performance**: PTA futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [44]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to oil prices [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: Ethylene glycol futures rose 1.01% on the previous trading day [46]. - **Outlook**: It may operate weakly in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [46]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: Short - fiber futures rose 0.86% on the previous trading day [47]. - **Outlook**: It may operate following cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to costs and macro - policies [48][49]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: Bottle - chip futures rose 0.9% on the previous trading day [50]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate following cost fluctuations. Risk control is necessary [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: Lithium carbonate futures rose 2.52% on the previous trading day [51]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it may return to a supply - demand surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [51]. Copper - **Performance**: Shanghai copper futures fluctuated downward on the previous trading day [53]. - **Outlook**: The price is still affected by the复产 of Indonesian copper mines. The main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - **Performance**: Tin futures rose 0.53% on the previous trading day [56]. - **Outlook**: It may operate strongly in a fluctuating manner due to tight supply and certain demand support [56]. Nickel - **Performance**: Nickel futures fell 0.11% on the previous trading day [58]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner. The market is in an oversupply situation, with high - grade nickel ore still in short supply [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: Soybean meal futures fell 0.24%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.15% on the previous trading day [61]. - **Outlook**: After adjustment, investors can consider call options on soybean meal. Soybean oil should be temporarily observed due to supply pressure [62][63]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on the previous trading day [64]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal and oil prices showed certain changes [65]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [67]. Cotton - **Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated, and overseas cotton futures rebounded after hitting a low on the previous trading day [68]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure due to factors such as trade frictions and harvest pressure [70][71]. Sugar - **Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level, and overseas sugar futures rebounded slightly on the previous trading day [72]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The global sugar supply may be in surplus, and the domestic market has new sugar supply [74][75]. Apples - **Performance**: Domestic apple futures slightly fell on the previous trading day [76]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [76][77]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs rose, and the main futures contract fell 3.21% on the previous trading day [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [79]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose, and the main futures contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day [80][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply may increase in October, and consumption may be lower than expected. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [81]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Performance**: Corn futures rose 0.67%, and corn starch futures fell 0.59% on the previous trading day [82]. - **Outlook**: Corn prices may continue to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market. Observation is recommended [83][84][85]

截至10月16日，COMEX金价已突破每盎司4300美元关口，续创历史新高。 不难发现，长期以来，作为无息资产的黄金价格与美国实际利率呈现显著的负相关关系，这意味着美债 实际利率的上行，往往带来金价的承压。 然而，这一定价规律自2022年俄乌冲突爆发后逐步失效：即使美债实际利率持续处于高位，金价依然强 势上行。 这种反常的背后，是黄金的定价逻辑的根本性转变——它已从单纯的避险、抗通胀工具，进化成为主权 信用对冲利器。这一身份转变，正是推动金价脱离历史规律的核心动力，而这一切又源于当下全球正在 发生的两大不可逆趋势。 短短三年间，黄金从每盎司1614美元攀援而上，在去年上涨27%之后，今年以来再度涨超60%，其上涨 斜率之陡峭，在历史上亦属罕见。 随着黄金市场不断走强，黄金主题ETF规模快速增长。数据显示，截至10月16日，包含商品型和股票型 在内的黄金类ETF总规模已接近2100亿元，今年以来累计"吸金"超800亿元。值得一提的是，在金价突 破4000美元后，资金买入黄金的热情依然不减。十一长假结束后，黄金ETF获得的日净流入额仍超过百 亿元。黄金股ETF（159562）今年以来涨幅一度翻倍，黄金ETF华夏（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is exploring high-quality development through the integration of futures and spot markets, addressing challenges such as market price fluctuations and rising costs while seizing strategic opportunities for transformation and upgrading [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The global aluminum industry is facing structural adjustments in the supply chain, with challenges including price volatility and increased costs due to geopolitical tensions and a shift towards "safety and controllability" in economic development [2]. - The integration of futures tools with spot production is seen as a key driver for the industry, helping companies manage costs and inventory effectively, thereby stabilizing profits [3][4]. Risk Management - The complexity of risks faced by upstream and downstream enterprises in the aluminum industry is increasing, necessitating a focus on external uncertainties and shocks [2][4]. - There is a need for enhanced collaboration between futures companies and the aluminum industry to improve risk management capabilities, including the establishment of training alliances and digital service platforms [4][9]. Market Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with profits leading among non-ferrous metals, supported by structural reforms and resilient demand from new economies [5][6]. - The supply side is nearing capacity limits, while demand from traditional sectors and emerging industries is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2% annually [6][8]. Futures Market Development - The establishment of a complete risk hedging system in the domestic futures market, covering alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloys, is crucial for the high-quality development of the aluminum industry [8]. - The participation of enterprises in futures trading in Henan province has seen a growth rate of 23% over the past three years, with significant risk mitigation achieved through futures tools [8][9]. Strategic Recommendations - Companies are encouraged to adopt a proactive risk management approach, utilizing futures for hedging and opportunity capture rather than relying solely on directional bets [7][9]. - The development of a tiered risk control system is recommended, focusing on traditional futures integration, expanding the use of options, and fostering collaboration with futures companies for data sharing and operational efficiency [9].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is exploring high-quality development through the integration of futures and spot markets amidst global market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The "2025 Futures-Spot Integration to Support High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry Forum" was held on October 16 in Zhengzhou, as part of the "2025 Third Central Plains Zhengzhou International Aluminum Industry Exhibition" [1]. - The forum was organized by Futures Daily and the Industry Service Alliance, with support from various futures trading institutions [1]. - Awards for excellent risk management cases and service providers were presented, showcasing the achievements of futures institutions in serving the real economy [1]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Trends - The global macroeconomic environment is experiencing structural slowdown and uncertainty, with a shift in economic development philosophy from "efficiency first" to "safety and controllability" [2]. - The aluminum industry is facing both strategic opportunities for transformation and challenges such as price volatility and rising costs [2]. - High-quality development is deemed essential for the industry to navigate current challenges, with futures-spot integration identified as a key driver [2]. Group 3: Futures Market Dynamics - The interaction between aluminum futures and spot markets has improved market effectiveness and enhanced price discovery and risk management [3]. - The futures market is seen as a risk management hub and a financial service engine for the green and low-carbon transition of the aluminum industry [3]. - Companies are encouraged to utilize futures tools for risk control and profit maximization, moving away from purely directional trading strategies [3]. Group 4: Challenges in Futures Market Utilization - Challenges in the futures market include a lack of understanding of futures and hedging among key enterprises and a shortage of composite talent [4]. - There is a call for collaboration between futures companies and the aluminum industry to enhance futures application levels and promote high-quality development [4]. - Companies are advised to explore options beyond traditional hedging and basis trading, including customized over-the-counter options for better risk management [4]. Group 5: Future Directions - Enhancing the pricing power of domestic bulk commodities is crucial for serving the industry, with a focus on rule-making capabilities as a core competitive advantage [4]. - The role of media and alliances in bridging the gap between capital markets and the real economy is emphasized, aiming to promote the integration of futures and spot markets in the aluminum sector [5].

Market Analysis - The A-share market is characterized by a "defensive battle" at key levels, with significant difficulty in maintaining upward momentum as seen in previous bullish trends [2] - The current market sentiment is cautious, with a notable increase in the number of low-priced stocks and significant selling from shareholders of high-priced stocks [2] - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown crisis, raising concerns about the stability of the dollar and U.S. sovereign debt, which is driving capital into the gold market [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 has risen to 95.7%, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and support its price [3][8] Sector Performance - The insurance, communication equipment, and photovoltaic sectors are performing well, while wind power, forestry, cement, and steel sectors are lagging [3] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a surge, particularly in electrolyte stocks, with prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 21.13% from September 16 to October 13 [4] - The storage chip sector is also gaining strength, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM [4] Investment Sentiment - Foreign investment firms are optimistic about the A-share market, viewing recent adjustments as opportunities for long-term positioning, particularly in technology stocks [13] - Multiple companies have announced share buyback plans, signaling confidence in the market and providing a boost to investor sentiment [13] - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining attention, with institutional investors favoring stocks that benefit from this trend [8][13] Gold Market Outlook - The demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing purchases by global central banks to hedge against dollar credit risks, with a significant increase in gold reserves [14][15] - Global gold ETFs have shifted from net sellers to net buyers, indicating a rising demand for gold [14] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the complex global geopolitical landscape are expected to drive gold prices higher in the future [15]

Core Viewpoint - The current strong upward trend in precious metals is supported by multiple favorable factors, including geopolitical uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and ongoing strategic purchases by global central banks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle is identified as the core driver for the rise in gold and silver prices, as it leads to a decline in real interest rates, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals [2][3]. - Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties continue to drive safe-haven demand for precious metals, with significant inflows of capital into these markets [2][3]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions are contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Tanglewood Total Wealth Management highlights that the rising global sovereign debt is a major factor driving gold demand, as investors seek to protect their wealth amid declining purchasing power of fiat currencies [4]. - ANZ Bank forecasts that spot gold prices will reach $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025 and peak at $4,600 by June 2026, while spot silver is expected to hit $57.50 per ounce by mid-2026 [5]. - Despite current high prices, gold is considered undervalued compared to the stock market, indicating potential for further appreciation [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by policies in the short term and are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have positive support, but the futures prices have already reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [20]. - The short - term demand for ferroalloys has a slight increase, but the supply is still in excess. Investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. - Crude oil has rebounded after bottom - building at a low level. Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [26][27]. - The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area is at a high level, and the inventory situation is mixed. Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [32][33]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [34][35]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. - PX is expected to be in a short - term oscillating adjustment, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [39][40]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. - Short - fiber is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44]. - Soda ash is expected to be lightly stable and oscillating in the short term, and the market will return to the fundamental - led logic [45]. - Glass is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term, and investors should pay attention to position control [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a positive supply - demand difference next week, and the market sentiment is good [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and marginal demand signals [50][51]. - Lithium carbonate's trading logic has shifted, and investors should pay attention to the key time in late September. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. - Copper is in an oscillating state, and the Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. - Tin is expected to oscillate, with tight supply at the mine end and weak consumption [57]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate, with an over - supply pattern of primary nickel [58]. - For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. - For palm oil, consider adding some long positions [63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider adding a small amount of long positions [65]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, with high foreign production expectations and more imports before October in China [72]. - Apple is recommended to be observed, with a slight increase in production expected [74][75]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [78]. - Eggs are recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [80][81]. - Corn is recommended to be observed, and corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - Logs are expected to oscillate at high levels [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan. The use of stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasury bonds [5]. - The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield of treasury bonds is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany in August were better than expected [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot prices of billets and steel products were reported. Policy changes are the main factor in the short term, and the prices are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term [14][15]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. Policy is the main factor, and the price follows coking coal. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [17]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The supply is affected by policies, and the futures prices have reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent [20]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The production of ferroalloys increased, but the demand recovery was weak [22]. - The short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia and India supported the price [25][26]. - Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [27]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated and rose. The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area increased, but the inventory situation in different regions was mixed [28]. - Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The supply decreased due to losses, and the market sentiment was positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply was affected by rainfall, and the cost support was strong. The demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [32]. - Pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [33]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply exceeded demand, and the price continued to oscillate at the bottom. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the profit improved [34]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market expected relaxed export restrictions to India. The supply was at a high level, and the demand for compound fertilizers increased [36][37]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply - demand was balanced in the short term, and the PXN spread was firm, but the cost support from crude oil was insufficient [38]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply decreased, the demand improved, but the cost support from crude oil was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure [39][40]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall supply increased, but the overseas supply decreased. The demand improved slightly [41]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand improved slightly. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [42][43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand for soft drinks increased. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased slightly. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short term [45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line was stable, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The price was supported by changes in supply and demand [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply was expected to shrink, but the demand improvement was uncertain, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The trading logic has shifted, and the price bottom support has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated. The spot market was average, and the price was affected by inventory and market sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply at the mine end was tight, and the consumption was weak. It is expected to oscillate [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply of primary nickel was in an over - supply pattern, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [58]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The USDA lowered the US soybean planting area, and the domestic inventory increased. For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the export data was strong. Consider adding some long positions [61][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. The domestic inventory situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil was different. Consider adding a small amount of long positions [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton markets showed different trends. The US cotton supply decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [66][69]. Sugar - The domestic sugar futures oscillated, and the foreign sugar futures fell. The Brazilian sugar production decreased slightly, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. It is recommended to be observed [71][72]. Apple - Apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction was disproved, and the production is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to be observed [74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand improved slightly. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [77][78]. Eggs - Egg futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand was lower than expected. It is recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [79][81]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures were flat, and corn starch futures rose. The weather was normal, and the new - season corn was expected to have a good harvest. The supply - demand of corn was balanced, and corn starch followed the corn market [82][84]. Logs - Log futures fell slightly. The spot price was strong, the demand was better than the supply, and the export increased. It is expected to oscillate at high levels [85][86].

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the "double standards" in U.S. trade and technology policies, highlighting a pattern of behavior where the U.S. imposes restrictions on others while exempting itself from the same rules, particularly in sectors like high-end chips and electric vehicles [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Trade and Technology Policies - The U.S. employs a "winner never violates the rules" logic, demanding resources from others while suppressing their strengths [1][2]. - The U.S. has implemented export controls on high-end chips and has generalized sanctions, forcing third-party companies to "choose sides," which disrupts global supply chains [2][3]. - The U.S. restricts market access for foreign companies in emerging technologies, citing "national security" and "fair trade," which contradicts WTO rules [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Dynamics - Historically, the U.S. has suppressed emerging powers, using various justifications such as "dumping" and "national security" to protect its interests [4]. - The current landscape shows that the U.S. is no longer the unchallenged leader, facing significant pushback in sectors like high-end chips and electric vehicles, with domestic companies and consumers suffering from government policies [4][5]. - The article suggests that true strength does not rely on underhanded tactics, and the U.S. must abandon its outdated "exceptionalism" mindset to compete effectively in the 21st century [5].

Group 1 - London silver prices experienced significant fluctuations, rebounding over 3% on October 15, reaching above $53 per ounce, with a reported price of $52.794 per ounce by 6:30 PM on the same day, marking a daily increase of over 2.6% [1] - The bullish trend in gold is a crucial factor for the overall rise in precious metals, with dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell contributing to rising asset prices and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% [1] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is highlighted, with silver's price center following gold, and expectations of future economic growth driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts further enhancing silver's commodity attributes [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures reported that silver's recent decline was greater than that of gold, attributed to basis convergence and reduced speculative trading, alongside a strengthening dollar and profit-taking [2] - Precious metals are still considered to have strategic allocation value, with the sector in an annual bull market, driven by declining dollar credit [2] - Over the next 1-2 quarters, there remains potential for Fed rate cuts, with ongoing risks related to independence, while long-term factors such as U.S. debt expansion and rising uncertainty from de-globalization are expected to enhance the intrinsic value of physical currency [2]