预测呈现增长更高、就业更稳、通胀略升的组合，印证预防式降息逻辑：与6月相比，2026年GDP增速 预期上调0.2个百分点，失业率下调0.1个百分点，而PCE通胀预期小幅上调0.2个百分点，说明美联储认 为适度提前降息有助于托底增长、稳定就业，通胀回升则更多源于关税和商品价格的"一次性冲击"，长 期回落趋势不改。鲍威尔在记者会上也强调，劳动力市场的疲软并非需求全面塌陷，而更多来自移民减 少导致的供给约束，同时需求同步走弱形成供需双降的格局。在这一背景下，25个基点的降息旨在避免 失业率短期内过快攀升，而非开启激进宽松。 市场反应整体淡化鸽派，美元与美债保持韧性：在声明与点阵图公布后，CME交易反映年内还有两次 降息。不过新闻发布会上鲍威尔强调政策仍具限制性后，资产反应有所修正。利率端，2年期收益率一 度下探，随后回升至3.5%附近;10年期基本稳定在4.0%上下，曲线倒挂小幅收敛但未出现单边陡峭化。 美元指数在议息夜快速收复跌幅，黄金抽高回落。该行维持年内仅剩一次降息，幅度25个基点，最可能 落点在12月会议的判断，除非就业市场出现大幅失速。 （原标题：中国银河证券：美联储"预防式"减息开启 点阵图显示多数派倾 ...

中新社北京9月18日电 题：三问美联储年内首次降息，对股债汇影响几何？ 中新社记者 夏宾 时隔9个月，美联储重启降息。 北京时间18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间的水平。这是 美联储2025年的首次降息。 为何选择此时降息？ 保持物价稳定和实现充分就业，是美联储的双重使命。 近期，美国劳工部公布的最新就业数据持续显著低于预期，表明美国就业市场的实际表现比先前预期更 为疲软。从此次美联储议息会议的声明看，经济前景不确定性仍然较高，美联储双重使命面临风险。 换言之，美联储当下的政策重点正向保就业倾斜。美联储主席鲍威尔称，美联储的政策一直侧重控制通 胀，现在正朝着更中性的政策方向发展。"美国劳动力市场正在降温，是时候在政策制定中考虑到这一 点了。" 鲍威尔称，美国经济只是短暂放缓而非衰退，本次降息是一项风险管理决策，属于"预防式"降息，没有 必要快速调整利率。 汇丰环球投资研究美国经济学家瑞恩(Ryan Wang)说，如果美国的劳动力市场状况进一步恶化，尤其是 申领失业救济金人数趋于上升的话，则不排除美联储考虑在今年10月再一次降息25个基点或是在明年增 加降息幅度的可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a focus on protecting employment despite rising inflation concerns [1][2][3] Monetary Policy Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates to a range of 4.0%-4.25% reflects a balance towards employment protection, with a forecast of two more rate cuts within the year [1][2] - The voting on this decision saw only one dissenting vote, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve anticipates that the current rate cut will effectively boost economic growth and employment, suggesting a limited scope for future "preventive rate cuts" [3] - GDP forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, while unemployment rate predictions for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 0.1% [4][5] - Inflation predictions remain largely unchanged, with only a slight upward revision of 0.2% for the PCE in 2026 [6] Chairman Powell's Remarks - Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing that future cuts will depend on upcoming economic data [7] - He noted that while the unemployment rate is still low, it has begun to rise, and job growth is slowing, attributing some of this to immigration policies [7] - Powell also mentioned that the impact of tariffs on inflation is diminishing, and service inflation is easing, reducing the risk of sustained high inflation [7] Market Expectations - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, with only one additional cut expected in 2026 [8] - Market expectations align with the Fed's guidance, anticipating a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the next two years [10] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Investment in gold ETFs is suggested as a favorable option due to the low opportunity cost of holding gold in a declining interest rate environment [12][14] - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, is expected to benefit from overseas rate cuts, attracting both domestic and foreign capital [17][19] - The ChiNext 50 ETF is highlighted for its potential due to a favorable funding environment and strong fundamentals, with a projected net profit growth of 13.88% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [20][22][23] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF is noted for its high dividend yield of 5.9% in a low-interest-rate environment [24][26]

Market Performance - On September 18, the three major A-share indices collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3831.66, down 1.15%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 13015.66, down 1.06%; and the ChiNext Index at 3095.85, down 1.64% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 31,666 billion yuan, an increase of 7,637 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, tourism and hotel, CPO hardware, pharmaceutical commerce, and wind power equipment sectors saw the largest gains [5] - Notable stocks included Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism, which hit the daily limit, while Xizang Tourism, Xian Tourism, and Huatian Hotel rose over 6% [5] - The CPO sector saw Dekeli and Huafeng Technology also hit the daily limit, with Guangku Technology rising by 15% [5] - In the pharmaceutical sector, China National Pharmaceutical surged to the daily limit, and Liuyuan Group rose over 5% [5] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% [5] - The rate cut is viewed as a "risk management" measure rather than the beginning of a series of cuts, which has led to some market disappointment [5] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision opens up more room for monetary policy adjustments in China, potentially leading to rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate the economy and stabilize the real estate and stock markets [6][7] - The overall sentiment is that the current A-share and Hong Kong markets are in a slow bull market, expected to last two to three years, encouraging investors to maintain confidence and patience [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts by 25 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%[2] - The Fed's guidance indicates a potential for three more rate cuts within the year, adjusting the median rate forecast down from 3.9% to 3.6%[14] - The meeting's tone was dovish, reflecting concerns over employment risks and a shift in the balance of risks[3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.06%, and the 2-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.52%[4] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point cut was not fully met, leading to a mixed reaction in equities and a rebound in bond yields[3][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 91,100 jobs over the past 12 months, intensifying rate cut expectations[5][6] - The Fed's economic outlook was upgraded, suggesting that rate cuts could stimulate durable goods consumption and real estate investment[8][14] - Inflation pressures are expected to remain manageable, with the Fed indicating that the current economic conditions do not warrant aggressive rate hikes[21][26]

Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as expected[2] - The median dot plot indicates a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year[2] - The analysis suggests that the Fed may have approximately 70 basis points of additional rate cut space based on the Taylor rule[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[2] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 remains at 3.0%, while the 2026 forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027[2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The FOMC statement reflects concerns about the labor market, noting a slowdown in job gains and an increase in the unemployment rate[2] - The report highlights upward pressure on inflation due to rising retail prices and inventory levels[3][8] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, asset prices exhibited volatility, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.55%[3] - The market's initial expectations of a 50 basis point cut were tempered by Powell's comments, leading to a reversal in asset price movements[3]

——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% during its monetary policy meeting on September 17, 2025, which is characterized as a risk management cut [1][2] - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy-making is shifting from inflation to employment, with an emphasis on the risks in the labor market influencing the decision to cut rates [2][3] - The updated dot plot indicates a higher likelihood of two additional rate cuts within the year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices have limited upward potential, with a recent increase of 11.82% in London spot gold prices over the past month, suggesting that the market has already priced in the rate cut [3] - The consistency among Federal Reserve board members regarding the rate cut decision indicates limited political interference from the White House, although potential changes in board member appointments could impact future policy directions [3][4] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by the anticipated rate cuts and ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with China increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral (downgraded) [7] Core Views - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, shifting focus from inflation to employment risks [3] - The market has already priced in the recent rate cut, with limited upward potential for gold prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential pullback risks [4] - The consistency among Federal Reserve Board members regarding rate cuts indicates limited political interference from the White House, which may lead to a more stable policy environment [4] - The long-term bullish logic for gold prices remains intact, with expectations of further rate cuts in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [9] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is characterized as a risk management cut, with expectations for two more cuts within the year, totaling a potential reduction of 50 basis points [3][4] Market Performance - Gold prices have increased by 11.82% over the past month, but the potential for further increases is limited due to already high price levels [4] - The market performance of precious metals has shown a decline of 10% recently, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [7] Future Outlook - The ongoing increase in gold reserves by China, with an addition of 60,000 ounces in August, reflects strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties [9] - The political dynamics surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership changes are crucial to monitor, as they may influence future monetary policy and market reactions [5]

新华财经北京9月18日电美东时间9月17日周三，美联储货币政策委员会公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间 从4.25%-4.5%降至4.00%-4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。本 次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变，删除劳 动力市场稳健。 具体来看，特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票，主张降息50基点，上次会议投票反对的两人均 支持本次利率决议。利率预测中位值显示联储预计今年共降息三次，较上次增一次，明年再降一次。点 阵图显示，九人预计今年内再降息两次，人数未过半，六人预计年内不再降息，一人预计降息五次、即 今年合计降息150基点。美联储上调今明后年GDP增长预期，下调明后年的失业率预期，上调明后年 PCE通胀预期，预计2028年通胀达到目标2%。 预防式降息基调下，预计年内还将降息两次，但消费韧性及通胀压力下，长期降息节奏将仍旧偏缓，是 否能够开启连续降息存在较强的不确定性。 白雪认为，2026年的政策路径将更加依赖经济、就业数据的演变趋势与政治周期的互动，是否连续降息 的不确定性较高。近期美国非农新增就业数据的大幅下调在 ...