Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points in this rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to influence various asset classes positively [24][14][30]. Market Impact - The U.S. stock market is likely to see increased risk appetite, with growth and small-cap stocks expected to benefit more from the rate cut [28][17]. - There is a significant increase in demand for foreign capital to flow back into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, supported by domestic policies [28][17]. - Gold prices are projected to challenge $3,800 or higher within the year or by mid-next year due to the rate cut [28][18]. - Short-term bond yields are expected to decrease, leading to price increases, while long-term bond volatility may ease due to clearer expectations [28][17]. - The U.S. dollar index is facing systemic downward pressure, entering a weakening cycle [28][11]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology and growth sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, are anticipated to perform well during this easing cycle [17][18]. - In the Chinese market, if the People's Bank of China continues to implement monetary easing, it could provide a boost to the A-share market, potentially leading to a second wave of upward momentum [21][28]. - The bond market may see increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds, especially government and policy bank bonds, as the Fed's rate cut alleviates the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential [21][28]. Global Context - The current rate cut is part of a broader trend of global central banks lowering rates, with the Fed's actions expected to influence other markets and asset classes worldwide [32][30].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, 2025, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction[1] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is lower than market expectations of 75 basis points for both years[1] Economic Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 1.5%, down from 2.5% in 2024, indicating a slowdown in economic activity[2] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% for 2025, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2026, reflecting concerns about job market stability[5] Inflation Trends - Inflation risks are decreasing, with the PCE inflation rate expected to be 3.0% for 2025, unchanged from previous forecasts[5] - Commodity inflation has rebounded, while service inflation continues to decline, suggesting mixed inflationary pressures[2] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major U.S. stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones showing changes of -0.10%, -0.33%, and +0.57% respectively[4] - The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose by 1 basis point to 3.52% and 2 basis points to 4.06%, respectively, indicating market adjustments to the Fed's guidance[4] Investment Strategy - Short-term risk assets may enter a volatile phase, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish on U.S. equities, with potential opportunities for adjustments until the end of next year[4] - The focus will shift to the outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations and the stance of Trump and Congress on the fiscal policy for FY26, which could impact market dynamics[4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by recent employment data, which showed job growth significantly below expectations [1] - Market expectations suggest further rate cuts may occur in the upcoming meetings in late October and early December [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced a short-term rally, with notable increases in the S&P 500's real estate and financial sectors [1] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 360.92 points (+0.79%) [1] - The offshore Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar, breaking the 7.09 mark, reaching a high of 7.0845, the first time since November of the previous year [1] Group 3: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve's median forecast indicates a potential further rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - Analysts predict that the rate cut will lead to a shift in global asset allocation towards riskier assets, particularly benefiting technology and small-cap stocks [9] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling below 4%, is expected to benefit long-term bonds and investment-grade corporate debt [6][9] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Impacts - Gold prices surged, surpassing $3,700 per ounce, as the market reacted to the rate cut [4] - The weakening of the dollar index, which fell to its lowest level since February 2022, is anticipated to provide upward momentum for the Chinese yuan [1][12] - The potential for a continued decline in the dollar may attract foreign investment into Chinese bonds, particularly government and policy bank bonds [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, driven by lower-than-expected job growth in recent months [1][11]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a short-term rally, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors, while the Chinese assets strengthened, with the Golden Dragon Index rising over 2% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index dropped to its lowest level since February 2022, and the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke above 7.09, reaching a high of 7.0845, the first time since November of the previous year [1][3]. Stock Market Reactions - In a preventive rate cut environment, U.S. stocks typically exhibit three characteristics: limited downward adjustments due to the "Fed put," strong performance from interest rate-sensitive indices or sectors, and a sustained trading period of about three months following the first rate cut [6]. - Growth-oriented and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit more from the rate cut, with foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks significantly increasing [15] [9]. Gold Market Insights - Historically, gold has shown an 83% success rate in the ten trading days following a rate cut since 1990, although caution is advised regarding profit-taking after the rate cut [7]. - Several institutions predict that international gold prices may challenge $3,800 or higher within the year or by mid-next year [15]. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen below 4%, approaching last week's low, with short-term bond yields decreasing and prices rising [5][6]. - The Fed's rate cut is expected to alleviate the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, potentially attracting foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds, particularly government and policy bank bonds [9]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The weakening U.S. dollar and improved global liquidity are anticipated to drive capital from the U.S. to emerging markets, especially Asian equities and sovereign debt [9]. - The RMB is expected to maintain stability, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, as the dollar index faces systemic downward pressure [9].

美联储这次的降息行动，可不是简单地在经济衰退时采取的"衰退式降息"，而更像是一种"预防式降息"。 北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，全球金融市场的目光都聚焦在美联储身上。 市场对这次降息的预期概率高达95.9%，几乎所有人都觉得降息25个基点已经是板上钉钉的事。 但美国总统特朗普最近可不消停，他在社交平台上频频发声，痛斥美联储主席鲍威尔"毫无头绪"，甚至还要求"立刻大幅降息"。 这种政治压力给会议增添 了不少不确定性，也让人担心美联储的独立性会不会受到影响。 回顾历史，像2019年和2024年的预防式降息后，A股和港股都因为流动性宽松和基本面修复的预期而整体上涨。 资金面是最直接的受益者。 美联储降息会降低美元资产的收益率，推动国际资金从美国市场流向估值更具吸引力的新兴市场。 目前A股的外资持仓占比只有2%左右，远低于全球新兴市场的平均水平，估值优势明显——沪深300指数的市盈率大约14倍，仅仅是标普500指数的大约 60%。 这种估值差使得外资加速回流A股市场。 历史数据显示，在美联储降息周期中，北向资金往往加速流入A股核心资产。 例如2024年9月美联储首次降息后，北向资金单月净增持规模达到188亿美元， 重点 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"美联储票型与中东紧急峰会"，"降息的历史经验与金价新高"，"8月宏观数据与服务消费"，"中概互联与AI智能体"四个方面解 读了基本面的一些信息，并结合美联储，卡塔尔，美元，预防式降息，金银油，规上利润，零售，地产，消费，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布 局思路。 今夜，号称史上最"分裂"的一次美联储利率决议要来了。尽管市场普遍预期将降息25个基点，但在就业疲软、通胀仍高于目标以及政治压力加大的背景 下，美联储FOMC投票或现"四方分裂"—— | 美联储重启降息周期 | | --- | | 性质 | 人名 | 担任职务 | 最新立场 | 备注 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome H. Powell) | 美联储主席 | 中间偏鹰 | 2026年5月主席 职位任满,但理 事职位到2028 | | | | | | | 菲利普·杰斐逊 (Philip N. Jefferson) | 美联储副主 席 | 鹰转鸽 | ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months, aimed at addressing signs of economic slowdown rather than a full-blown crisis [1][2] - The current economic context is characterized by "stagflation," with slowing growth and relatively high inflation, as indicated by a core PCE year-on-year growth of 2.86% and a core CPI growth of 3.2% [2] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The rate cut is anticipated to have a threefold positive impact on Chinese assets, including expanded monetary policy space, stabilization and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and accelerated capital reallocation [2][5] - The Chinese capital market is expected to see a wave of foreign capital inflow, benefiting from the easing of external monetary policy constraints [5] Group 3: Opportunities in A-shares and H-shares - In the A-share market, three sectors are identified as clear beneficiaries: technology growth sectors (TMT, semiconductors, AI), large financial sectors (banks, brokerages, insurance), and high-dividend stocks (electricity, oil, state-owned enterprises) [2][10] - The H-share market is more sensitive to external liquidity, with significant foreign capital allocation towards software, services, and technology hardware sectors, driven by advancements in AI technologies [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Benefits - The automotive industry is poised to benefit from both policy and funding advantages, with a target of achieving approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3% [6] - The expected sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach around 15.5 million, reflecting a growth of approximately 20% [6] - The rate cut will lower financing costs for automakers, enhance consumer confidence, and support overall consumption, particularly in the automotive sector [7][8] Group 5: Commodity and Bond Market Effects - The rate cut is expected to positively influence the commodity and bond markets, with industrial metals like copper and aluminum anticipated to break upward, and gold prices receiving short-term support [9] - The bond market is likely to see a clear downward trend in interest rates, enhancing the investment value of government and interest rate bonds [9] Group 6: Asset Allocation Strategy - Experts recommend prioritizing equity assets in the current environment, particularly in technology growth, high-dividend blue chips, and large financial sectors, while suggesting moderate allocation to bond assets [10] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential overvaluation in certain sectors due to pre-existing rate cut expectations [10]

今夜，全球市场都在盯着美联储。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议结果和经济预期，凌晨2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。这可能是全球投 资者最不敢错过的一场"直播"。 对于是否会降息，似乎已经没了悬念——综合各种经济数据、各方表态和机构预测来看，美联储时隔九个月重启降息已经是板上钉钉。 7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社发 但别以为一切已成定局，真正牵动市场的，还有三大悬念： 一是降息的幅度。 不过，鉴于通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且特朗普关税措施可能在未来数月进一步推高通胀，这使得部分美联储决策者对过快行动持 谨慎态度。 另外，对降息较为保守的一方认为，移民政策导致劳工供给大跌，并非劳动需求出了严重问题。 所以目前来看，降25个基点仍是主流预测。 二是投票还会不会"打架"。 美联储上次的议息会议，多达两位理事投票反对美联储当时按兵不动的决定，这可是三十多年来头一遭。很多人觉得，这俩人的态度， 可能就是特朗普一直施压的效果。 特朗普一直以来都没掩饰他对降息的渴望，又是喊话又是批评，可谓软硬兼施，但鲍威尔一直在"硬刚"。 随着白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬· ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a key interest rate decision in the second half of 2025, with a 95.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - A rate cut is anticipated to trigger a liquidity turning point in global financial markets, affecting the performance of U.S. stocks, emerging markets, and commodities [1][3] Group 2 - In the U.S. stock market, technology growth is expected to remain the main focus, while traditional cyclical sectors may perform relatively flat [3][5] - The Nasdaq 100 index, primarily composed of technology stocks, is likely to continue its upward trend post-rate cut, benefiting companies like Apple and Microsoft due to reduced financing costs [4] - Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks typically experience a "rate cut trade" lasting around three months, suggesting limited concern for immediate pullbacks [6] Group 3 - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, may attract new capital as the U.S. dollar weakens post-rate cut [7] - A-shares in sectors like AI computing and semiconductors are expected to benefit from valuation expansion due to low interest rates, while Hong Kong tech stocks may recover from previous pressures [8] Group 4 - In the commodities market, gold and silver are seen as having greater opportunities compared to oil, with gold historically showing an 83% success rate in the ten trading days following rate cuts [9] - The appeal of gold is heightened by reduced opportunity costs and rising geopolitical risks, while silver benefits from both its safe-haven and industrial demand [9] Group 5 - The "雪球三分法" (Snowball Three-Part Method) is proposed as a strategy for investors to navigate the differentiated market conditions post-rate cut [11] - This method emphasizes asset, market, and timing diversification to capture opportunities across various sectors while mitigating risks associated with single markets [12] Group 6 - Asset diversification can lower volatility, as evidenced by a significant reduction in maximum drawdown when incorporating gold into traditional stock-bond portfolios during rate hikes [13] - Market diversification allows for capturing opportunities across global markets, reducing the impact of correlated movements between different asset classes [16] Group 7 - Timing diversification through regular investment can alleviate concerns about market timing, allowing investors to benefit from long-term trends without the stress of buying at peak prices [17]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in September, with discussions focusing on the magnitude of the cut, speculated to be between 25 to 75 basis points, with a 74% probability for a 75 basis point cut as of September 14, 2025[2][11] - Historical data indicates that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to changes in U.S. monetary policy due to the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar[10] Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Indices - In previous rate cut cycles, the three major Hong Kong indices (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) typically exhibit a volatile pattern in the 30 trading days leading up to the cut, followed by a period of adjustment post-cut[22][29] - The Hang Seng Tech Index tends to show smaller declines immediately after a rate cut and greater gains in the subsequent period compared to the other indices[29][31] Group 3: Market Reactions Post Rate Cut - On average, the three indices tend to decline in the two trading days before the cut, rise on the day before, and then drop on the day of the cut and the following two days[33][39] - After a rate cut, the Hang Seng Tech Index has historically shown a stronger recovery, with average returns of 1.03% in the four weeks following the cut, compared to 0.08% for the Hang Seng Index[19][24] Group 4: Comparison with Previous Rate Cut Cycles - The current environment is more complex than previous rate cut cycles in 2019 and 2024, with persistent inflation and economic slowdown concerns[49][51] - Historical examples of "recessionary rate cuts" show that the performance of the indices can vary significantly based on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, indicating that a recessionary context does not guarantee a decline in stock prices[56][62] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include historical data bias, extrapolation risks, and the possibility that the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts may be lower than expected[61]