换资前言： 投资市场就好比人生，你在参与，却不能去决定。这个市场不会时时刻刻让你得偿所愿，但会给你很多 可以去规划和争取的空间。投资市场的魅力就在于它充满了不确定性，却有规则可循。犹如人生，太多 做人的道理大家都明白，可是终究还是战胜不了自己个性的弱点。所以说，要想在这个市场上把握到属 于自己的那一份收益，你就需要遵守这个市场的规则，否则你将会被淘汰出局！没有不赚钱的投资，只 有不成功的做单！是否赚钱在于买涨买跌时机的把握，赚钱靠机会，投资靠智慧，理财靠专业。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（7月22日）亚市早盘，现货黄金冲高回落，目前交投于3390.91美元/盎司附近。受到美元走软、 美债收益率下滑以及全球贸易紧张局势加剧的推动，金价周一飙升逾1%，盘中创下五周新高3401.41美 元/盎司，收盘报3396.91美元/盎司。美元指数下跌0.6%，使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者更 具吸引力。与此同时，10年期美国公债收益率跌至逾一周低点4.348%，30年期收益率也回落至 4.936%。美债收益率的下滑反映了市场对美国经济前景和贸易政策的不确定性担忧，而这种不确定性 为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have shown strong upward momentum since early April, supported by multiple favorable factors, including trade uncertainties and monetary policy expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming deadline of August 1 for new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global trade partners has created market uncertainty, providing strong support for silver [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-EU trade negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which enhances silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The market anticipates a 59% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, further boosting silver prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - A weak U.S. dollar has reduced the purchasing cost of silver, attracting buyers [3]. - Ongoing concerns about global economic uncertainty, exacerbated by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Recent global manufacturing data indicates a gradual recovery in industrial activity, positively impacting silver's industrial demand, particularly in Asia's tech manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's price action has shown a bullish pattern, with significant support levels identified at $38.00 and $37.50, while resistance is noted at $39.00 and $39.13 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached around 70, indicating strong buying momentum, although it is in the overbought territory [4]. - A breakout above the resistance zone of $38.80-$39.00 could lead to further upward movement towards the July 14 high of $39.13 [4].

日本政坛动荡，欧盟拟制定关税报复计划，市场资金涌入避险资产，黄金恐重拾涨势？金十研究员高阳 正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 欧美盘黄金分析中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar is emerging as a safe-haven currency, but it cannot replace the Japanese yen or Swiss franc [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - Investors are turning to safe-haven assets during uncertain times, including gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc [1] - The U.S. dollar, despite being the preferred global reserve currency, has weakened, with the dollar index dropping over 9% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Singapore Dollar Analysis - Analysts suggest that the Singapore dollar may become an alternative choice due to its low volatility and the country's cautious fiscal stance [1] - Singapore's monetary management approach limits large-scale position trading, which may affect the currency's attractiveness [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Concerns over trade have overshadowed the outlook for the Japanese yen [1] - Experts believe that the euro could potentially become a safe-haven currency on par with the Swiss franc [1]

新华财经北京7月21日电上周（7月14日-7月18日当周）国际金价高位窄幅震荡。当周现货黄金开盘 3364.19美元／盎司，最高触及3377.16美元／盎司，最低3309.81美元／盎司，报收3350.39美元／盎司。 周度累计下跌4.73美元或0.14%，周K线微跌，终结之前的两周连阳。 回顾上周金价的驱动因素，美国经济数据、美联储独立性前景以及关税政策等因素交织作用，使得现货 黄金虽周内波动较为明显，但仍维持震荡走势。 展望新的一周，关税博弈仍在继续，美国最新的制造业和服务业PMI或提供有关特朗普关税政策影响的 最新线索。与此同时，鲍威尔在重压之下能否顶住降息压力，也令市场关注。但考虑到金价7月以来波 动率缩小，预计震荡格局或将延续。 美国通胀数据基本符合预期，避险需求支撑金价 在上周一金价冲高回落之后，黄金市场的焦点就转向了美国6月通胀和零售销售等重要经济数据。 不过，避险需求则成为上周金价尽管面临压力，但仍高位坚挺的支撑。这主要表现在，一方面，市场质 疑消费反弹中可能包含一定"关税推动的价格上涨"成分。另一方面，市场对美国财政赤字、关税政策走 向及美联储独立性问题的担忧持续发酵，推高了对避险资产的需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility triggered by President Trump's comments regarding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, leading to sharp price fluctuations and heightened investor anxiety [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices faced resistance at the $3375 level, with multiple attempts to breach this threshold resulting in aggressive selling from short sellers, pushing prices back down to around $3340 [1][3]. - The market is influenced by three main forces: Trump's tariff announcements increasing global risk, central banks like China's continuing to accumulate gold, and rising U.S. Treasury yields making gold less attractive [3][4]. Group 2: Immediate Reactions - Following news of Trump's consideration to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, gold prices surged from $3320 to $3377, marking a significant increase of $55 within two hours, reflecting a rush to safe-haven assets [4][6]. - However, after Trump denied the dismissal, gold prices plummeted by $40, highlighting the market's sensitivity to political developments and the potential for rapid reversals [6]. Group 3: Domestic Market Impact - In the domestic market, gold jewelry prices reached 1008 CNY per gram, while the buyback price was only 762 CNY per gram, creating a significant loss for investors who sell immediately after purchase [9]. - Investors in gold bars also faced losses of up to 20%, indicating a challenging environment for retail gold investors amid fluctuating international prices [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, such as initial jobless claims and retail sales, which are expected to influence gold price trends and overall market sentiment [10].

Core Insights - The global demand for gold has significantly increased, reaching approximately 4,550 tons last year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2000 [1][3] - Asia now accounts for over 60% of the annual global gold demand, reflecting the region's rising economic influence [1][3] - The Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange has seen a substantial increase in trading volume, with an average daily trading amount of over HKD 9.4 billion last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 28% [3] Industry Developments - The Hong Kong government aims to leverage the changing global environment to attract more metals and commodities for storage and trading in Hong Kong, thereby promoting the development of gold-related businesses and financial services [5] - A dedicated task force has been established to comprehensively review the gold financial trading sector, focusing on increasing storage capacity, optimizing trading and regulatory mechanisms, and expanding product offerings [4] - The establishment of an offshore gold delivery warehouse by the Shanghai Gold Exchange in Hong Kong and the inclusion of Hong Kong in the London Metal Exchange's global warehouse network are significant steps towards enhancing Hong Kong's position as an international financial center [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The platinum market faces a structural shortage, with supply contraction in South Africa, stable demand from automotive exhaust catalysts, and incremental demand from the hydrogen energy industry and jewelry sector. The global platinum market's core contradiction lies in the high dependence on South Africa for supply (accounting for over 70% of production in 2024), but reduced capital expenditure and low recycling have led to a continuous supply contraction (CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025). On the demand side, automotive exhaust catalysts (accounting for 43% in 2024) provide a rigid foundation, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. The hydrogen energy industry and gold substitution (high gold prices driving platinum jewelry consumption) offer elastic growth [3]. - The influx of risk - averse funds and continuous supply disruptions have led to a continuous increase in platinum prices. Geopolitical conflicts have strengthened the financial attribute of platinum, attracting risk - averse funds. Supply disruptions have also played a catalytic role. In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply decreased by 13% year - on - year (-117,000 ounces) due to factors such as heavy rainfall and floods in South African mining areas, low smelting capacity utilization in South Africa and Zimbabwe, and mine restructuring in North America. The high gold - platinum ratio in history indicates an undervaluation of platinum's value, which may attract value investment. However, the recent continuous rise in platinum prices still depends on market consensus. If the consensus is strengthened, the value center has room for continuous upward movement, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [3]. - Investment advice: On the supply side, short - term production cuts in South Africa cause supply fluctuations, and inventory is currently at a low level. In the long - term, low capital expenditure leads to supply contraction, and high supply concentration poses certain risks. On the demand side, traditional industrial demand is relatively stable, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. High gold prices promote platinum substitution in the jewelry field. It is recommended to focus on the "resources + technology" line and pay attention to relevant companies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Platinum Metal Properties and Industrial Chain Structure - Platinum group metals include platinum, palladium, rhodium, etc., with high melting points, high strength, excellent thermoelectric stability, high - temperature oxidation resistance, and corrosion resistance. Platinum and palladium have strong gas adsorption capacity and excellent catalytic properties, and are widely used in automotive exhaust catalysts, jewelry, electronic components, and chemical catalysts [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Contradictions Are Prominent, and Structural Shortage Intensifies Supply - Platinum ore supply is relatively concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 70% of production. In 2024, global platinum ore production was 170 tons, with South Africa producing 120 tons, accounting for 70.6% of the global total. In terms of reserves, South Africa accounted for 88.73% of the global platinum - group metal reserves in 2023. Due to reduced capital expenditure in platinum ore projects and low recycling enthusiasm in the past decade, the total platinum supply is expected to fall below 7 million ounces in 2025, with a CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025 [13]. Demand - Platinum has obvious industrial attributes, and automotive exhaust purification demand accounts for about 40%. In 2024, the demand for platinum in automotive exhaust purification accounted for 43%. The hydrogen energy industry may become a future trend, and the growth of hybrid vehicle demand will also bring benefits. Although the demand for platinum in the automotive field is expected to remain high in the long - term, economic prospects are still uncertain [19]. - Jewelry demand has a small base but considerable elastic space. High gold prices have affected gold jewelry demand, and platinum jewelry is expected to fill the gap. The gold - platinum ratio exceeded 3 in February 2025 and回调 to about 2.46 as of July 1. According to WPIC, the year - end inventory is expected to drop sharply, leading to a tightening of market supply, and platinum may become a hedging product [24]. 3.3 Influx of Risk - Averse Funds + Continuous Supply Disruptions, Platinum Prices Rise Continuously - Platinum prices have shown a strong upward trend recently, with an increase of about 34% in the past two months, reaching a high level in the past 10 years. Future price trends still need to pay attention to the impact of economic data on precious metal prices [28]. - Supply disruptions and the gold substitution effect have led to the recent rise in platinum prices. On the supply side, South Africa, which supplies about 70% of platinum production, has been affected by bad weather, restricting mining and refining operations, and recycling metal supply is also at a low level. On the demand side, in addition to the basic demand for platinum as an automotive exhaust catalyst, the substitution effect of platinum jewelry for gold jewelry is obvious, and investment demand and the hedging attribute of platinum have attracted investors. The hydrogen energy concept also gives platinum a certain bullish attribute [31]. - The gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and the future price center still depends on market consensus. Gold and platinum prices diverged about a decade ago, with gold's financial attribute becoming prominent while platinum focused on industrial attributes. Around 2013, platinum prices recovered due to supply contraction, increased industrial and investment demand, and a shift in market sentiment. Currently, the gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and platinum is undervalued. Whether it can attract value investment depends on market consensus, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [38]. 3.4 Core Targets: Guiyan Platinum Industry, Haotong Technology, Huayang New Materials Guiyan Platinum Industry - The company focuses on the manufacturing of precious metal new materials and has established a complete industrial chain system. It has built a precious metal resource recycling industry, carried out full - life - cycle management of precious metals, and established a precious metal supply service platform. It has formed a closed - loop industrial chain from precious metal supply, product processing to waste recycling [48]. - The company has strong R & D capabilities and independent innovation. Relying on the research and development foundation of the State Key Laboratory of New Technologies for Comprehensive Utilization of Rare and Precious Metals and the Kunming Institute of Precious Metals, it has continuously made breakthroughs in high - end materials such as precious metal precursor materials, catalytic materials, and electronic pastes. In 2024, the production of precious metal precursor products increased by more than 20% year - on - year, and the profit of precious metal electronic pastes increased by more than 30% year - on - year [48]. Haotong Technology - The company's three major business segments develop synergistically, and its full - chain service has created core competitiveness. It focuses on the precious metal recycling field, and its business includes precious metal recycling, new materials mainly composed of precious metals, and trade. It has formed a closed - loop from raw material supply to new material manufacturing and recycling, meeting customers' cyclical needs [51]. - The company has leading core technologies. Its independently developed platinum dissolution solution enrichment technology and other technologies are at the international leading level, and its sponge platinum products have a high reputation in the industry. It has advantages in environmental protection, safety, and cost, providing customers with more competitive prices [51]. Huayang New Materials - The company is supported by state - owned enterprise resources and has a full - industrial - chain layout. As a provincial - level state - owned enterprise in Shanxi, it has natural advantages in order acquisition, policy support, and resource approval. Its subsidiary, Huashengfeng Company, is the first domestic precious metal recycling and processing enterprise for producing platinum catalytic nets for nitric acid production. The company also has an industrial chain advantage in "PBAT - modified materials - products" [57]. - As of July 17, 2025, the PE - TTM of Guiyan Platinum Industry, Huayang New Materials, and Haotong Technology were 20, - 62, and 35 times respectively, and the PB were 1.66, 23.88, and 2.81 times respectively. With the rise in platinum prices, relevant companies are expected to improve their performance and digest valuations. According to institutional consensus forecasts, Guiyan Platinum Industry's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 696 million yuan, 826 million yuan, and 955 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 16.9, 14.2, and 12.3 times at the current stock price [58].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with a strong performance across nearly all non-ferrous metals, driven by investment demand and market conditions [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, reaching a 14-year high [2][4]. - Investment in silver products, such as silver bars and coins, has surged, leading to a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3][4]. - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for silver and platinum, projecting silver to reach $40 per ounce in the next three months and $43 in the next 6-12 months [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries, with a year-to-date increase of 19.54%, leading all 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification [3][6]. - The demand for silver is primarily driven by investment, which has a positive correlation with silver prices, indicating a significant "amplifying" effect during a silver bull market [5]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further increase demand for gold, potentially raising its price by 10%-15% [4]. Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - All sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metals industry have experienced price increases, with the precious metals sector leading at a 36.74% rise [6][7]. - The energy metals sector has seen a 12.69% increase, while the industrial metals sector has risen by 16.78% [7]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of considering long-term supply chain and national defense needs in the context of political risk premiums affecting strategic metals [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is regaining attention as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing global inflation, geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of gold prices reaching $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 in mid-2026 [1][3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold in 2025 presents both opportunities and challenges, with a significant shift from speculative to structural long-term investment, as central bank demand remains strong, with an average monthly purchase of 77 tons projected for 2025, significantly higher than the historical average of 17 tons before 2022 [3][4] - The defensive value of gold is being recognized again due to escalating geopolitical risks, as evidenced by a price rebound to $3,355 per ounce amid trade tensions [3][4] Group 3 - Investors face three pressures: a strengthening dollar due to strong labor data and persistent inflation, technical resistance in the gold price around $3,300-$3,330, and the disadvantage of non-yielding assets as high U.S. Treasury yields attract speculative funds [4] Group 4 - The analysis of trading platforms highlights the importance of compliance for fund safety and fair trading, with a focus on a specific platform that offers dual services in London gold contracts and physical gold storage, ensuring transparency and low transaction costs [4][5] Group 5 - For retail investors to profit in the gold market, a systematic trading approach is essential, including starting with low leverage, data-driven decision-making, social learning through copy trading, and defensive asset allocation of 10%-15% in physical gold [5][6] Group 6 - The gold market in 2025 is transitioning from speculation-driven to value-driven, with central bank purchases and geopolitical risks providing dual support for a long-term upward trend, making the current price range a rational window for gold allocation [6]