Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, adjusting the policy rate to 3.75-4.00% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The central bank is expected to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - The upcoming meeting will not include a quarterly economic projections report, shifting focus to Chairman Powell's press conference [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Current market expectations indicate a high certainty of a rate cut in October, with a nearly 100% probability for a December cut as well [1] - Cumulative rate cuts of 117 basis points are projected by 2026, exceeding the Federal Reserve's own forecast of 75 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - Analysts expect that the Fed will provide more guidance on future policy directions during the press conference, particularly regarding employment risks and inflation pressures [4][8] Group 2: Economic Data and Labor Market - Recent private sector data indicates a decline in private sector jobs, with ADP reporting a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, reflecting a weakening labor market [4][8] - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-on-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][9] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Quantitative Tightening - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent trends show a decline in bank reserves [10][13] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America have adjusted their forecasts, suggesting that the Fed may halt its asset reduction process due to rising borrowing costs in the dollar financing market [10][15]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, especially given President Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed and his attempts to place loyalists within the institution, which raises concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The shortlist for the next Federal Reserve Chair includes current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at BlackRock [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to submit a candidate list to President Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday, with Trump expected to make a decision by the end of the year [1]. Market Concerns - Trump's continuous criticism of Powell and the Fed's monetary policy is perceived as undermining the Fed's independence, with concerns that his appointed candidate may lack independence [2]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October monetary policy meeting, influenced by the potential new chair's stance on monetary policy [2]. Analysis of Candidates - According to CITIC Securities, the main competition for the Fed Chair position is between Waller and Hassett, with market sentiment favoring Waller due to concerns over Hassett's loyalty to Trump [3]. - The market is wary of Hassett's potential appointment due to previous resistance faced by Trump's nominee Stephen Moore, suggesting that Waller may ultimately be the favored candidate [3]. - If Waller is appointed, it could lead to a reversal in market expectations regarding the Fed's independence, positively impacting overall dollar assets and negatively affecting gold prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, primarily due to concerns over labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market, while also potentially halting its balance sheet reduction plan [4][5][21]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, which is seen as almost certain due to increasing concerns about the labor market, despite ongoing inflation pressures [5][10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is largely influenced by the need to address risks in the labor market, as indicated by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][10]. - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding the future outlook on interest rates, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation while acknowledging labor market risks [10][19]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Analysts warn that the U.S. economy is in a "low hiring, low firing" state, with a clear risk of evolving into a "no hiring, layoffs" scenario, which could jeopardize the Fed's goal of maximizing employment [15][16]. - The FOMC's September meeting minutes revealed that most participants acknowledged increased downside risks to employment, highlighting concerns over potential hiring cuts and layoffs [16][20]. - The labor market's health is being monitored through weekly unemployment claims data, which remains a key indicator [17]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed is likely to announce the cessation of its balance sheet reduction plan due to recent signs of liquidity tightening in the money market [21][22]. - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, expect the Fed to take action to stabilize the financial system, especially after recent fluctuations in overnight financing rates [22][23]. - The Fed currently allows $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet each month, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries [26][27]. Group 4: Data Limitations - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [6][28]. - The absence of reliable employment and inflation data complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with expectations that Powell may avoid giving explicit forward guidance during the upcoming press conference [30][31]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December, despite the data vacuum, as the market has fully priced in the likelihood of another cut [32][34].

Report Overview - Report date: October 29, 2025 [3] - Data sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on October 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Container shipping to Europe (FEU) rose over 5%, coking coal rose over 3%, eggs rose over 2%, and coke, iron ore, and silver rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed oil fell over 2%, palm oil and fuel oil fell over 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.23%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.39%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 2.12%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.42%. The main contract of 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) rose 0.10%, the main contract of 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) rose 0.16%, the main contract of 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) fell 0.27% [6][7] - As of 15:22 on October 29, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 3.241 billion, coking coal 2601 had an inflow of 1.618 billion, and Shanghai copper 2512 had an inflow of 1.149 billion. In terms of outflows, Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 1.571 billion, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 976 million, and Shanghai silver 2512 had an outflow of 504 million [7] Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The market is optimistic about the Fed's potential 25-basis-point rate cut and the US-China trade agreement, which boosts copper prices. Supply shortages due to mine accidents and potential production cuts in November support copper prices. However, downstream demand is weak due to high prices, and social copper inventories are increasing [9] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened flat, had a V-shaped intraday trend, and closed in the green. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 76,950 yuan/ton, also up 650 yuan/ton. Rising ore costs support prices. Supply is growing moderately, and demand is strong, especially from the energy storage battery sector. However, potential new energy vehicle purchase taxes and unclear resumption time of CATL may limit price increases [11] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved high, with a strong intraday oscillation. The third round of price increases by coke enterprises is expected to be implemented on the 31st. Supply is short due to political factors in Mongolia and domestic production controls. Demand is weak as coke enterprises are in the red and steel mills are reducing production. Although prices are rising, the market will fluctuate widely as the supply-demand tightness eases [12][13] Urea - Urea opened low and moved low, with a strong oscillation. Spot market transactions are sluggish, and domestic demand is weak. Production is slightly increasing, and cost support is strong. Agricultural demand is ongoing, and factory inventories are gradually decreasing. However, the supply-demand pattern remains loose, and prices will oscillate at a low level in the short term [14]

来源：滚动播报 在美联储将于周三公布利率决议前，随着交易员普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，金价反弹，重新突破 每盎司4000美元大关。Sucden Financial分析师Daria Efanova表示："25个基点的降息已被市场完全消 化，投资者正密切关注鲍威尔主席的讲话，以寻求12月是否会再次降息的指引。在央行购金和投资者涌 入避险资产以对冲地缘政治及经济不确定性的推动下，今年黄金涨幅仍超过50%。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to make a significant interest rate decision amid the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown, with a likely 25 basis point rate cut and an end to the balance sheet reduction plan to address labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - A 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain, driven by concerns over labor market risks despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is focusing on labor market threats, with recent data indicating a potential shift from "low hiring, low firing" to "no hiring, layoffs," which could jeopardize the Fed's employment goals [4][6]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are increasing, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others express concerns about inflation [3][4]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, anticipate that the Fed will announce a halt to its balance sheet reduction due to recent liquidity tightening in the money market [5]. - The Fed currently allows $50 billion in Treasury securities and $350 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet monthly, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries while allowing MBS to continue rolling off [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Guidance - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [2][6]. - Analysts expect that the Fed will refrain from giving explicit forward guidance for December due to the unreliability of upcoming labor market data [6][7]. - The absence of reliable data may lead to a situation where skipping a widely anticipated rate cut could appear awkward for the Fed [6][7].

Economic Assessment - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to adjust its initial statement to acknowledge the rebound in economic activity, potentially stating that "recent indicators show economic activity has been expanding at a robust pace" [1] - The committee may add language indicating that its assessment of economic conditions has been affected by data shortages due to the government shutdown [1] Employment and Inflation - Analysts from CityIndex suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain its existing views on slowing job growth and high inflation due to data scarcity caused by the government shutdown, although the weaker September inflation data may prompt slight adjustments in inflation language [1] Balance Sheet Reduction Plans - Strategists from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Mizuho Securities, TD Securities, and Wrightson expect the Federal Reserve to halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, while Barclays and Goldman Sachs analysts believe the end date will be later [1] Voting Dynamics - Barclays indicates potential internal divisions within the decision-making body, with member Milan likely advocating for a more significant rate cut, while other officials may prefer to maintain current interest rates [1] - Generali Investments predicts a "three-way split" in voting, with one dissenter supporting a larger 50 basis point cut and others possibly favoring no change [1] - Analyst Yohay Ela notes that if Milan can gain support from members Waller or Bowman, it could lead to a rise in stock and gold prices, while putting pressure on the dollar [1] - CityIndex suggests that Milan is likely to vote for a 50 basis point cut, but others may not follow suit; however, dissent for maintaining rates could signal a strong hawkish stance, though this risk is considered low [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points due to domestic trade uncertainties and slow business investment [1] - Economic analyst Jeremy Kronick highlights that multiple factors contribute to the overall economic weakness, particularly in industries affected by tariffs [1] - The Bank of Canada previously reduced the benchmark interest rate to 2.5% at the end of September, ending a three-month period of rate stability [1] Group 2 - Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, influenced by rising food prices and a slowdown in the decline of gasoline and travel prices [2] - The Canadian labor market added approximately 60,000 jobs in September, maintaining an unemployment rate of 7.1% [2] - Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO, notes that recent economic data does not fully support calls for a rate cut, as employment figures are not particularly weak and inflation remains slightly above expectations [2] Group 3 - The decision-making process for the Bank of Canada is considered unusually difficult, with further rate cuts becoming more justified if the economy worsens beyond current predictions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming FOMC meeting, with discussions on future rate paths and the timing of ending the balance sheet reduction plan highlighting internal divisions among policymakers [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is nearly 100% as the current overnight loan benchmark rate is between 4% and 4.25% [1]. - Economists predict that the Fed will continue to cut rates into 2026, potentially lowering rates to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [3]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - There are significant divisions among Fed officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others are hesitant [2]. - The recent voting dynamics show that only one member opposed the last rate cut, indicating a split in opinions on the committee [2]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the labor market are a primary reason for the Fed's inclination to cut rates, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4]. - The lack of recent economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding employment and inflation [4][5]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is expected to signal the nearing end of its quantitative tightening process, which involves allowing maturing securities to roll off its $6.6 trillion balance sheet without reinvestment [5]. - There are indications of liquidity tightening, prompting expectations for a statement regarding the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction [5].