Economic Data Insights - The S&P 500 has declined 10% from its high due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, creating uncertainty in financial markets [1] - The Labor Department will release jobs, payroll, and unemployment numbers, while the Commerce Department will announce first-quarter GDP and consumer spending data [2][3][4] - Job openings are forecast to decrease by 68,000 to 7.5 million, indicating potential labor demand reduction [6] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, with a forecast of 130,000 jobs added in April, which could influence investor sentiment [6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March, with expectations to remain the same in April, which could impact market reactions [6] - GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.4% in Q1 2025, the lowest in three years, reflecting the economic impact of tariffs [6] - Consumer spending is projected to increase by 0.4% in March, with lower numbers potentially causing stock declines [6] Technology Sector Financial Results - Four major tech companies—Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple—are set to report financial results, which will provide insights into their performance amid tariff impacts [8] - Meta Platforms is expected to see a 14% increase in sales to $41.4 billion and a 12% increase in earnings to $5.28 per diluted share, with a focus on AI's impact on engagement and ad spending [10] - Microsoft anticipates an 11% revenue increase to $68.4 billion and a 10% earnings increase to $3.22 per diluted share, with investor interest in AI monetization [10] - Amazon's revenue is expected to rise by 8% to $154.9 billion, with earnings increasing by 39% to $1.36 per diluted share, highlighting the need to address tariff impacts on sales [10] - Apple forecasts a 4% sales increase to $94.1 billion and a 5% earnings increase to $1.61 per diluted share, with significant focus on the trade war's effects on its business [10] Market Reactions and Expectations - The financial results and management guidance from these tech companies will be closely monitored, as any lack of visibility could lead to market anxiety and potential sell-offs [9] - Strong financial results and positive commentary regarding the trade war could trigger a stock market rally [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes that there are no winners in the trade war initiated by the United States, advocating for dialogue based on equality, respect, and reciprocity [1] Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates its stance that the trade war and tariff conflict have no winners [1] - The spokesperson, Guo Jia Kun, states that the trade war was initiated by the U.S. [1] - The Chinese side calls for the U.S. to cease threats and pressure if it wishes to resolve issues through dialogue [1]

本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源赘述在文章结尾 ——【·前言·】——» 36万亿美元，一个惊人的数字，让美国领导人深感压力。它沉重地压在美国经济之上，也为特朗普的再 次当选蒙上阴影。 为了化解这场迫在眉睫的债务难题，特朗普采取了一系列大胆却备受争议的措施，力图扭转乾坤。 他们一方面试图削减政府开支，另一方面又发起贸易战，甚至公开质疑美联储的政策，每一步都像一场 风险极高的赌博，赌注是美国的未来和全球经济的稳定。 这些决策的影响深远，充满不确定性。 ——【·债务危机的成因与特朗普的挑战·】——» 美国债务问题积累已久，并非一朝一夕形成。 冷战结束后，美国成为世界头号强国，积极参与国际事务，承担了许多责任。 高昂的军费和频繁的海外军事行动，无疑让美国花费了大量金钱。 与此同时，国内各种福利政策持续增加，也让的财政压力越来越大。 这两方面因素共同作用，导致美国长期处于财政赤字状态，债务问题日益严重。 为了促进经济增长，美国长期保持较低的借贷成本，使得大量资金流入了房地产和股票等市场，从而产 生了巨大的资产泡沫。 由于开支超过收入，为了弥补这个越来越大的资金缺口，美国只能不断发行国债来借钱还债。 这种以债养债的做法， ...

智通财经4月29日电，加拿大总理卡尼表示，加拿大将赢得贸易战；将加强与欧洲、亚洲的贸易关系。 ...

加拿大总理卡尼：我们将赢得贸易战并建立G7国家中最为强大的经济。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of increased tariffs on products like Tiger Balm, which is primarily produced in China and distributed in the U.S. This could lead to a significant price increase for consumers [1] - The U.S. government has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, which is expected to result in an additional tariff cost of $3 million to $5 million for Tiger Balm this year [1] - The article notes a trend of American consumers rapidly purchasing Chinese-made goods before they become more expensive, indicating a reaction to the tariff situation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the broader implications of tariffs on consumer goods in the U.S., with prices for items like furniture increasing by 27% due to tariffs [3] - It mentions that the new tariffs could lead to a significant economic impact, with an estimated annual revenue increase of $737.4 billion from tariffs, but a GDP loss of $1.2 trillion due to reduced consumer spending [3] - The trade structure between the U.S. and China shows that the U.S. primarily imports consumer goods, while China imports intermediate goods, indicating a potential imbalance in trade dependencies [3] Group 3 - The article reports a significant reduction in China's purchases of U.S. pork, with a decrease of 12,000 tons in one week, marking the lowest weekly delivery volume of the year [5] - It also notes a decline in soybean purchases from the U.S., with only 1,800 tons bought in the same week, reflecting a trend of reduced imports from China [5] - The article emphasizes China's stance against U.S. tariffs, advocating for multilateral trade systems and expressing a commitment to high-level openness and win-win cooperation [5][8] Group 4 - The article concludes with a statement on China's ability to counter U.S. provocations and its strategy to mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs through domestic demand expansion and market diversification [8] - It asserts that the trade war initiated by the U.S. has no winners and warns that continued protectionism will hinder global economic development [8] - The global community is watching closely to see how this tariff conflict will unfold and what the eventual outcomes will be [8]

在本周美国关键经济数据临近公布之际，黄金价格走低，这些数据可能揭示特朗普关税战所带来的影响。周二亚盘，现货黄金一度失守3310美元/盎司，日 内跌超1%。 周一，在经济数据不佳推动美国国债收益率走低的背景下，作为无息资产的黄金由跌转涨。与此同时，摩根大通表示，由于投资者在特朗普政策下持续抛售 美国资产，预计美元将迎来又一轮走弱。周一一美元下跌0.5%，这使得以美元计价的黄金对大多数买家来说黄金变得更便宜。 道明证券大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示："我们开始看到抛售耗尽的初步迹象"，并补充说黄金的下行风险极其有限。他说，"西方投资者，尤其是自由裁 量交易员或宏观基金，在黄金上涨的最后阶段完全处于仓位不足的状态，因此，抛售活动有限，金价正在走高反映了这一点。" 特朗普引发的贸易战激发了对黄金的避险需求，推动金价在近几个月接连创下历史新高，尽管自上周触及3500美元大关后有所回落。 美国总统声称与中国的关系已经取得了进展。然而，中方已经多次否认两国正在进行贸易谈判。 City Index和FOREX.com的市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada表示："在我们看到更低的高点和更低的低点，以及实打实的贸 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Affected by the news of crude steel reduction, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. Recently, the spot price of steel has followed the increase, and the immediate spot profit of steel has improved. High profits will drive the continued increase in hot metal production. In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both strong, and the price bottom has certain support. In the medium and long term, considering that it takes time to formulate the details of the crude steel reduction policy, if the policy cannot be implemented immediately, steel mills have no incentive to cut production voluntarily under high profits. When the real demand weakens in late May, the contradictions in the steel market will accumulate again, and the black industry will face a new round of negative feedback. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, hold a light position during the May Day holiday, and short jm&j2509 at high prices after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal spot inventory worried about further price drops, to prevent price declines from affecting trading profits, they can sell coking coal futures (JM2509) to lock in the sales price in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 980 - 1030, 50% at 1030 - 1080 [3]. Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about coke price drops, to prevent price declines from damaging coking profits, they can short coke futures (J2509) according to the sales plan to lock in the price. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 1600 - 1650, 50% at 1650 - 1700 [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis 利多 Factors - Steel mills have high profits, and there is still an expectation of increased hot metal production [5]. 利空 Factors - The trade war has escalated, and the US has imposed huge tariffs on China, causing concerns about steel exports. - Coking coal is in serious oversupply. In the Shanxi region, producers are increasing production and reducing prices to maintain sales volume. - The topic of crude steel reduction has been hyped repeatedly [5]. Group 5: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 04 - 28 | 2025 - 04 - 25 |环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 199647 | 202077 | - 2430 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 349673 | 353201 | - 3528 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 890 | 890 | 0 | | Silico - manganese | Sheets | 123129 | 122403 | 726 | | Silico - iron | Sheets | 14906 | 14287 | 619 | [5] Group 6: Spot Price and Profit Data Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - Multiple types of coking coal and coke spot prices are provided, including prices of different origins such as Anze low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian coal, and Australian coal, as well as coke prices in different regions like Lvliang and Rizhao. There are also price changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Import and Export Profits - Import and export profit data of coking coal and coke are presented, including import profits of Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal, as well as coke export profit. There are also daily and weekly profit changes [7]. Basis and Spread Data - Multiple sets of basis and spread data of coking coal and coke are provided, such as coking coal 09 - 01, coke 05 - 09, etc., along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Ratio and Profit Data - Data on ratios such as the main coking coal/dynamic coal ratio, main ore - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio, as well as profit data such as the on - screen coking profit are presented, along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7].

2025年04月29日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.47%，收于 19935 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 130 元/吨， LME 价格 2427.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：美国关税政策态度缓和，开工环比走强，并维持去库。预计铝价震荡偏强运行。 操作建议：观望或逢低试多。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 2862 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 56 元/吨，4 月 23 日，澳大利亚成交 3 万吨，离岸成交价格 347.5 美元/吨，较上一单（4 月 17 日）持平。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂总体运行产能未出现大幅波动。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产 能小幅上升。 交易策略：氧化铝厂压产和检修增多，现货止跌且周度供应短缺转为去库。但几内亚铝土矿发运恢复，进口 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 矿价格跌幅扩大，若矿价继续下跌修复 ...

2025 年 04 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：连续释放现货风险，盘面或逐步止跌 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏弱 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 涨 跌 | 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4225 -43（-1.01%） | 4185 | -36（-0.85%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2985 -56（-1.84%） | 2977 | -21 （-0.70%） | | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1061.25 +2.0（+0.19%） | | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 296 -2.3（-0.77%） | | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 5月M2509+150， 3600～3750； 本持平； 8-11月M2601+10 ...