Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with both London gold and silver reaching historical highs due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On January 12, London gold and silver prices peaked at over $4600 per ounce and $84 per ounce, respectively, marking new historical highs [3]. - A-share precious metal-related stocks also performed well, with notable increases: Mingpai Jewelry up over 10%, Shengda Resources up over 8%, and several others rising by over 5% [3]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and rising tensions are driving safe-haven investments into precious metals [4]. - Central banks and global macro funds are increasing their positions, leading to an imbalance in investment structures [4]. - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice raises concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially accelerating interest rate cuts if Powell were to leave [4]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases since November 2024 [3]. - Analysts suggest that central bank purchases are a key medium-term driver for rising gold prices, with potential for gold to approach $5000 per ounce and silver to reach $90 per ounce [5]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that investors approach gold investments with caution, suggesting a strategy of small positions and buying on dips, rather than leveraging investments [1][6][7]. - Financial institutions are warning about the risks of illegal investment schemes that exploit the current market enthusiasm, advising investors to engage only through regulated financial channels [6][7].

Group 1 - Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in March, July, and September, revising its previous forecast of cuts in January, March, and September [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts of 25 basis points in June and September, changing from its earlier prediction of cuts in March and June [1] - Barclays predicts the Federal Reserve will reduce rates by 25 basis points in June and December, adjusting from its previous expectations of cuts in March and June [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in June and September, revising its earlier predictions of cuts in January and April [1] - JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, changing from its previous forecast of a 25 basis point cut in January, and now anticipates a rate hike of 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2027 [1]

美国降息预期升温叠加地缘风险加剧等因素推动下，1月12日国际贵金属价格大涨，金银价格盘中均刷 新历史高点。 国内期货市场上，沪金期货主力合约盘中涨超3%，最高升至1031.3元/克；沪银期货主力合约盘中涨超 14%，截至下午收盘，最高升至20998元/千克。 "实物供需长期失衡仍是贵金属本次突破历史高点的核心驱动力。此外，短期价格再度突破也因近期美 伊紧张关系骤然升级，叠加美国总统特朗普近期有关侵占格陵兰岛等激进言论，对全球市场构成冲 击。"上海钢联稀贵金属资讯部贵金属分析师黄廷分析，2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达2693吨，连续 第五年短缺，主因供应端增量有限，而投资需求近年增长显著，同时制造业消费量预期波动凸显结构性 短缺，支撑价格中枢上移。COMEX白银实物交割需求加剧库存紧张，2025年12月多头交割需求激增， 形成对空头"逼仓"格局推动价格加速上涨。 外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主 力合约盘中涨逾6%，最高触及84.57美元/盎司。 黄加奇认为，目前黄金、白银均位于历史高位，且短期急涨幅度较大，技术形态上方阻力有所加大，且 短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 on the US dollar and the ongoing strength of the Chinese yuan, particularly in the context of exporters' currency conversion activities and hedge fund investments in the yuan [1][6]. Group 1: Exporter Currency Conversion Trends - Exporters began converting large amounts of USD to RMB after the yuan fell below the 7.1 psychological threshold, with a total of $180 billion converted from March to November last year, and expectations to exceed $200 billion by early 2026 [1][4]. - Since 2020, exporters have retained significant USD revenues, estimated at around $700 billion since 2023, with only a portion expected to be converted to RMB if the USD/RMB exchange rate remains between 7.1 and 7.15 [3][4]. - The conversion trend accelerated in September, driven by the psychological threshold of 7.1 and the upcoming Chinese New Year, which typically sees a slowdown in conversion activities [4]. Group 2: Hedge Fund Activities - Hedge funds have contributed to the yuan's appreciation by taking long positions on the currency, particularly as the USD weakened and the Fed cut rates in the latter half of the year [4][5]. - However, recent signs indicate that hedge funds are starting to take profits, as the interest rate differential between the US and China remains significant, making continued long positions on the yuan less attractive [5]. Group 3: Future of the US Dollar - The prevailing view is that a "weak dollar" trend will continue into 2026, although some institutions caution that the market may have overestimated the Fed's rate cut expectations, which could lead to a dollar rebound [6]. - Historical data suggests that during periods of significant capital expenditure growth in the US, the dollar tends to strengthen, with potential GDP growth driven by AI investments [6]. - The upcoming expiration of Fed Chair Powell's term in May may influence monetary policy, with potential implications for interest rate decisions depending on the new appointee's stance [7].

来源：滚动播报 荷兰银行经济学家Rogier Quaedvlieg在一份报告中说，随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)受 到调查，美联储近期降息的前景面临风险。他说，对美联储独立性的挑战可能导致美联储理事会成员坚 持立场，推迟降息，以"捍卫该机构"。Quaedvlieg说，这项调查与这家央行总部的装修成本超支有关， 被认为是向美联储主席施压，迫使其下台，以允许政府施加更大的影响力。他说："如果情况拖延下 去，降息可能会被推迟。"美国总统特朗普曾表示，他倾向于降低利率。 ...

站在当前时间点展望2026年市场，我们应跳出市场对2026年各类宏观因素的定价视角，转而审视2026年 真实可能发生的态势。在讨论国内市场之前，我们需简要梳理海外形势：众所周知，美联储作为全球最 主要的央行，2026年仍存在一定的降息空间。市场对2026年美联储降息已形成较强预期，但我们对此持 有略为不同的看法，海外货币政策周期可能会比当前市场预期的更为紧缩。 从时间线来看，特朗普大概率会在2025年底至2026年初公布新任主席人选。随后，新任人选将先担任美 联储理事，待参议院通过听证后，正式出任美联储主席，整体流程大致如此。因此，市场也在依据这一 流程进行定价，市场预期，新任美联储主席上台后的第一次议息会议，降息概率将高于此前几次，这也 是市场对其鸽派货币政策立场的提前定价。 我们认为，哈塞特若出任主席，大概率能推动一次降息，但后续能否实现更多次降息仍存在不确定性， 核心取决于前文提到的劳动力市场与通胀是否会出现明确的边际变化。从当前来看，此前降息的积极效 果仍在逐步显现，因此我们认为，2026年美联储实现一次降息的预期是相对合理的。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值突出：跟踪上证十年国债指数，持仓为 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectation for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from March 2026 to June 2026, anticipating rate cuts of 25 basis points in both June and September [1] - The analysis indicates that despite significant progress in inflation, the Fed may act cautiously due to one-time price boosts from tariffs, and the labor market, while stabilizing, still faces risks of further weakness [1] - The possibility of a rate cut in January 2026 has been virtually eliminated due to an unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate, leading to a significant cooling of market expectations for easing [2] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - Morgan McKinley's report shows a 12% year-on-year increase in job vacancies in the UK financial services sector by 2025, driven by a surge in demand for skills related to artificial intelligence, regulatory compliance, and data reporting [1] - Despite some weakening indicators, overall employment data in the U.S. remains resilient, suggesting that immediate monetary policy intervention is not urgent [2] - Approximately 40% of homes in the U.S. are mortgage-free, with rising home prices attributed more to soaring construction and labor costs than to interest rate factors [3] Group 3: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - JPMorgan highlights a massive investment surge in AI infrastructure, estimating total investments to reach between $5 trillion and $7 trillion, with the four major U.S. cloud providers expected to invest $480 billion by 2026 [3] - The phenomenon of "locked-in" homeowners with mortgage rates below 4% continues to constrain housing market liquidity, with over half of U.S. homeowners unwilling to sell regardless of interest rates [3]

美国降息预期升温叠加地缘风险加剧等因素推动下，1月12日国际贵金属价格大涨，金银价格盘中均刷新 历史高点。 外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合 约盘中涨逾6%，最高触及84.57美元/盎司。 卓创资讯贵金属分析师黄加奇也分析，本次行情上涨的驱动力主要来自两方面。一方面，特朗普就降息 力度问题再度向美联储现任主席鲍威尔施压，且财长贝森特预计，特朗普将在1月19日—23日举行的达沃 斯论坛前后就下任美联储主席人选做出决定，此外12月非农数据不及预期，交易者对后续降息路径偏鸽 定价。 另一方面，地缘碎片化影响持续发酵，伊朗近期因物价上涨，社会不稳定因素上升，美国考虑干涉伊朗 方案，而同时美国与丹麦、委内瑞拉之间就关键资源和领土问题存有争端，特朗普对国际法的表态也使 得地缘局势前景不确定性上升，市场避险需求支撑贵金属溢价。 黄加奇认为，目前黄金、白银均位于历史高位，且短期急涨幅度较大，技术形态上方阻力有所加大，且 短期需要关注彭博大宗商品指数再平衡对贵金属的权重削减和芝商所上调黄金、白银保证金比例可能造 成的利空影响。但长期来看，美联储降息周期尚 ...

Macro News - The ISM manufacturing index in the US for December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, marking the tenth consecutive month below 50 and the lowest level since October 2024. New orders have contracted for the fourth consecutive month, and export orders remain weak. Employment numbers have declined for eleven consecutive months [1] - The ISM services PMI index for December 2025 increased by 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The growth in new orders reached the largest increase since September 2024, while the pace of price increases slowed to the slowest in nine months [1] Employment Data - According to ADP data, private sector employment in the US increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. The JOLTS job openings for November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, significantly below the expected 7.6 million, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [2] - The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for December 2025 increased by 50,000, below the expected 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, while October was revised from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4%, below the expected 4.5% [2] Institutional Views - Last week, gold prices experienced fluctuations, with Shanghai gold surpassing the 1,000 yuan mark and New York gold exceeding 4,500 USD. The short-term macro atmosphere has cooled, leading to a general pullback in previously high-performing assets, which has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices [2]

欧元区通胀放缓，进一步降息预期不强，欧美利差预期收缩。 特朗普总统发动对委内瑞拉大规模军事行动、重启格陵兰岛获取计划、提高美国2027财年军费等，带来 地缘局势紧张，冲击西方阵营内部团结，短期避险情绪推高美元，中期则加速去美元化。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月12日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1026.28 | 2.57% | 238327 | 116450 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月12日上海黄金现货价格报价1023.32元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1026.28元/克）贴水 2.96元/克。 美国制造业前景疲软依旧，订单不足，就业继续萎缩，但服务业超预期扩张，国内外订单大增，就业重 新扩张；就业人数弱增长，岗位空缺数下降，失业者重返劳动力市场难度较大，但失业率意外下降，形 成数据上的背离，降息预期不增反减；美国财长贝森特希望降低利率，表示利率是驱动未来经济增长的 关键因素。 因此短期来看美联储降息预期不强、美国经济增长向好、欧美关 ...