Group 1: Market Overview - The global precious metals market in 2025 is influenced by geopolitical events such as the stalled Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and escalating tensions in the Middle East, creating a complex environment for investors [1] - The World Gold Council reports that global central bank gold purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, with China's gold reserves increasing to 73.61 million ounces, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] - The occupation of mining hubs in the Democratic Republic of Congo is impacting palladium and cobalt supply chains, while trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies present operational challenges for investors [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The precious metals market is experiencing daily price fluctuations exceeding $100, with incidents like a single-day gold price swing of over $55 on March 18 due to geopolitical tensions, highlighting the risks of traditional trading platforms [3] - Data indicates that 73% of investors incur losses due to poor platform selection, emphasizing the importance of trading efficiency and fund security in the industry [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - The company has established a three-dimensional risk management system comprising regulatory compliance, technical safeguards, and fund custody, ensuring transparency and security for investors [4] - Each trade generates a unique transaction code, allowing real-time tracking and verification, akin to an "electronic ID" for transactions [4] - The platform employs advanced technology, including multi-layer firewalls and SSL encryption, maintaining a slippage rate of 0.05% under high-pressure conditions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For entry-level investors, the company offers a micro-position design starting at 0.01 lots, allowing for small-scale testing of trading strategies with a focus on risk management [5] - Advanced investors can utilize a "core + satellite" allocation strategy, with 70% in gold ETFs and 30% in silver futures, capitalizing on projected silver price increases driven by solar demand [7] - The platform's multi-asset trading capabilities enable tracking of correlations between gold, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, automatically initiating hedging strategies when divergences exceed 15% [7]

Group 1 - The majority of U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.905%, the 10-year yield at 4.399%, and the 30-year yield at 4.94% [1] - A joint report from the New York and San Francisco Federal Reserves indicates a possibility of the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates close to zero in the coming years, despite currently high short-term borrowing costs [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as this month, depending on evolving data [1] Group 2 - Canadian bond yields increased across the board, with the 1-year yield at 2.655%, the 10-year yield at 3.402%, and the 30-year yield at 3.699% [2] - European bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German yield at 2.641%, the 10-year Italian yield at 3.552%, and the 10-year French yield at 3.354% [2] - UK bond yields experienced minor fluctuations, with the 2-year yield at 3.866%, the 10-year yield at 5.577%, and the 30-year yield at 5.389% [2] Group 3 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed regret over the latest tariff statement and emphasized ongoing negotiations with the U.S. government [3] - Long-term Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield at 1.49% and the 30-year yield at 3.076% [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance issued 5-year bonds with a demand ratio of 3.54 times, indicating average market demand [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment was cautious due to tariff tensions, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and rising yields [4] - President Trump announced that starting August 1, imports from at least 14 countries will face high tariffs, contributing to the sell-off [4] Group 5 - The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its policy rate at 3.85%, indicating a need for more time to assess inflation data [6] - Australian bond yields initially rose significantly before partially retreating, with the 10-year yield at 4.269% after the policy announcement [6] - Australia's inflation rate for May was reported at 2.1%, the lowest since October 2024, down from 2.4% in the first quarter [6] Group 6 - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $158 billion in three bond offerings, including $50 billion in 6-week and 52-week bills, and $58 billion in 3-year bonds [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factor for precious metal prices in the medium - term is the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations. The Fed's marginal easing in the second half of the year is certain, and a long - position approach should be maintained for silver prices [2]. - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will ultimately yield to the continuous development of the US fiscal situation. The Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in the July meeting but show a marginal dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting [3]. - Against the backdrop of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be focused on the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US wide - fiscal expectation. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 775.68 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.19% to 8916.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.08% to 3345.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.17% to 36.97 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.4%, and the US dollar index was 97.37 [2]. - For various precious metal products, there were different daily changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the trading volume of COMEX Gold increased by 184.71% compared to the previous period, while the open interest decreased by 1.42% [6]. 2. Policy Expectations - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes the Fed will cut interest rates twice in the remaining time of this year. Trump's trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed to intervene in Powell's stance. Fed Governor Warsh also believes the Fed should cut interest rates [2]. 3. Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. For example, Chart 11 shows the relationship between COMEX Gold price (dollars/ounce) and the real interest rate (%) [11]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences on July 7, 2025 [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - **Positions**: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - **Positions**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - **Inventory**: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - **Economic Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals declined. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June and the decrease in the unemployment rate led the market to abandon bets on a July interest rate cut. Economic data shows that the economy is not significantly weakening, and the Fed will base its next move on data performance. After the geopolitical risks cooled down and economic data suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, the market's focus this week is on the change of the US reciprocal tariff policy expiring on July 9. Trump said new tariffs would take effect on August 1, with rates ranging from 10 - 70%. The short - term direction of precious metals is unclear, and they will continue to fluctuate waiting for the impact of the final policy on market risk sentiment [1] 3) Other Key Points - On July 4, Trump signed a nearly 900 - page "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which includes many of his 2024 campaign promises. The bill will increase the federal fiscal deficit by about $3.3 trillion in the next decade [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that several major agreements are close to being reached. If countries receiving tariff letters fail to reach an agreement, the tax rate will return to the April level on August 1. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs will take effect on August 1, and Trump is "now formulating tax rates and agreements". White House economic adviser Hassett said some trade negotiations may exceed the deadline [2] - Israel and Hamas' first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations in Qatar ended without results, with Israel saying Hamas' demands were "unacceptable" [2]

Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 7, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 8931.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3346.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 37.14 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 96.99 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, down 0.55% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8885.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.49%. London gold closed at 3331.90 dollars/ounce, down 0.01%, and London silver closed at 36.89 dollars/ounce, up 0.01%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [5]. Group 2: Employment Data Analysis - In June 2025, the US added 147,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, the government employment sub - item in non - farm payrolls was as high as 73,000, much higher than the previous value of 7,000. The previously announced ADP employment population decreased by 33,000, lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Excluding the government employment sub - item, only the education and health services (adding 51,000) and construction (adding 15,000) sectors showed resilience, indicating a weakening labor market [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Expense - On July 3, 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act" proposed by Trump. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the act would increase the US fiscal deficit by 2.77 trillion dollars in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, leading to greater debt issuance pressure in the second half of the year. As of May, the cumulative issuance of US Treasury bonds this year was only 281.3 billion dollars, a 56.1% year - on - year decrease. The US Treasury cash account balance was only 372.2 billion dollars, far below the recommended 850 billion dollars, creating a financing demand of nearly 500 billion dollars [3]. - The current average interest rate of US Treasury bonds is 3.294%, and the cumulative interest expense this year has reached 776 billion dollars. Net interest expense is the third - largest fiscal expenditure item after social security and medical insurance. If the US Treasury issues more bonds in a high - interest - rate environment, interest expenses will be difficult to control, increasing the deficit and squeezing other fiscal expenditure items, which is the reason for Trump's dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will give way to the sustainable development of US finance. Further monetary easing by the Fed in the second half of the year is certain. The Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting but show a more dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [4]. - In the context of the expected easing of Fed monetary policy, attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the expectation of loose US fiscal policy. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 5: Market Data Tables - A table shows the closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and year - on - year changes of various precious metals, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, stock market indices, etc [5]. - Another table presents the key data of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily price increases or decreases, and historical quantiles in the past year [8]. - There is also a table about the internal and external price differences of gold and silver on July 4, 2025, including the prices of COMEX and domestic futures, exchange rates, and price differences [50].