Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report serves as a "thermometer" for economic health and a "compass" for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, significantly impacting global financial markets and the Fed's decisions [1] - Strong non-farm data indicates a tight labor market, potentially increasing wage growth and inflation pressure, leading the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to prevent economic overheating [1] - Conversely, weak data suggests a slowdown in job growth, prompting the Fed to maintain accommodative policies to stimulate the economy, making non-farm data a key indicator for observing Fed policy trends [1] Group 2 - Investors using the Lingsheng Precious Metals platform can capture trading opportunities around non-farm data releases through real-time market data and a fast transaction system [2] - The platform supports a T+0 trading model, allowing investors to quickly close positions for profit after data releases, with continuous market analysis to aid rational decision-making [2] - The timing of non-farm report releases often creates short-term market volatility, providing profit opportunities for gold traders, with Lingsheng's stable trading environment facilitating precise investment opportunities [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 参议院通过大而美法案 金价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案（大而美法案），并提交众议院。此外，7月9日的贸易 关税暂停最后期限越来越近，而总统特朗普表示，不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期。美联储方面，无法断言7 月降息是否为时过早，不排除任何一次会议上采取行动的可能性。经济数据方面，美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升 至去年11月以来最高，交易员略微削减美联储降息预期。昨日黄金价格继续呈现震荡走高格局。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-01，沪金主力合约开于 766.18元/克，收于 776.10元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.11%。当日成交量为 171739手，持仓量为 167465手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 780.80 元/克，收于 777.10 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.84%。 2025-07-01，沪银主力合约开于 8737元/千克，收于 8810元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 342536手，持仓量 264724手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,802 元/千克， ...

KVB App发现在全球货币政策走向备受瞩目的关键时刻，美联储主席鲍威尔于周二在葡萄牙举行的欧 洲央行会议上，再次明确传递出谨慎的货币政策信号。这场汇聚欧美亚各国央行领导人的重要会议上， 鲍威尔强调，鉴于当前美国经济活动保持稳定，美联储将采取 "等待观察" 策略，着重评估关税上调对 物价水平和经济增长的潜在影响，之后才会决定是否重启降息举措，这番表态引发全球金融市场高度关 注。 "我们只是需要一些时间，" 鲍威尔在会议上直言，"只要美国经济状况良好，我们认为谨慎的做法是等 待并进一步了解这些影响可能是什么。" 这番言论清晰表明，美联储在关税政策与货币政策的权衡中， 倾向于以更审慎的态度收集数据、评估形势。近期，投资者对美联储下半年至少两次降息的预期不断升 温，主要源于 4 月和 5 月公布的通胀数据比部分经济学家预期更为温和。但鲍威尔在会议上拒绝就月底 美联储会议作出任何预测，坚定表示经济前景才是最终决策的决定性因素。他进一步指出，无法断言 7 月降息是否为时过早，"我不会排除任何一次会议 (降息的可能性)，也不会直接确定某次会议会采取行 动"，这种模棱两可的表述，既给市场留下想象空间，也展现出美联储决策层在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the rise in gold prices was due to multiple factors. The dollar index dropped to its lowest since February 2022, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict increased market risk - aversion. However, the upcoming release of US June non - farm payroll data on Thursday could potentially suppress gold prices. So, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed higher. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, as the tariff war is nearing its end [7][8]. - For gold in the long - term, the overall direction is still bullish, though it is currently undergoing adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year [12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are back in a state of inventory accumulation. Technically, it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15][16]. - For glass, it still awaits the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it should be considered as oscillating with a downward bias [20][21]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectations of US biofuel policies and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering the mid - term seasonal increase in production and inventory, when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, short positions with a light position are recommended [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market environment factors such as the drop in the dollar index and the decline in the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with geopolitical tensions, led to the rise in gold prices on July 1, 2025. But the upcoming US non - farm payroll data may affect gold prices. It is advisable to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - In the long - term, the overall trend of gold is bullish. Although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12]. 3.2 A - shares - The A - share market had a trend of opening lower and closing higher. With the tariff war approaching its end, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise [7][8]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Technically, it is showing a downward - biased oscillation [15][16]. 3.4 Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it is in a downward - biased oscillation [20][21]. 3.5 Soybean Oil - Due to long - term US biofuel policy expectations and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering mid - term seasonal production and inventory increases, short positions with a light position are recommended when the price reaches 8050 - 8000 [24].

鲍威尔还表示，当前美国经济基本面稳健，为美联储采取观望策略提供了空间。这表明美联储并不急于 采取激进的宽松或紧缩措施。鲍威尔称，美联储预计在夏季期间通胀水平可能会有所上升，但整体上仍 处于可预见范围内。他重申，通胀正朝着美联储目标方向前进，但尚未完全达成。（新华财经） 美联储主席鲍威尔7月1日表示，鉴于当前关税带来的不确定性及其对价格的潜在影响，美联储决定暂停 加息行动，以便更准确评估其对通胀和整体经济的影响。鲍威尔说，在美国经济保持强劲的背景下，美 联储倾向于采取谨慎态度，选择观望并等待更多信息以评估通胀和经济走势。 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.01%至 9878 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.01%至 79780 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度较大。宏观方面，昨日特朗普在接受媒 | | | | 体采访时表示，无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将在未来几天内向包括日本在内的数 | | | | 百个国家发送信函，单方面告知各国对美出口商品的关税税率，而非继续进行贸易谈 | | | | 判。这或意味着 7 月关税期限到期前后风险事件可能再现。另外，昨日特朗普发文再 | | | | 次批评美联储主席鲍威尔和整个美联储理事会不降息的作为。国内方面，国家统计局 | | | 铜 | 公布数据显示，6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 | | | | 水平继续改善。库存方面，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 90625 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 | | | | 1749 吨至 191607 吨； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently risen, reaching a high of $3320.34 per ounce, supported by strong buying at lower levels and a weaker US dollar [2] - The US dollar index has dropped 0.5% to 96.76, marking its worst first half performance since the 1970s, with a monthly decline of 2.7% [2] - Concerns over the increasing US government deficit, projected to rise by $3.3 trillion due to tax cuts and spending, have weakened the dollar's appeal [2] Group 2 - Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve are increasing, with President Trump pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for significant interest rate cuts [3] - Recent trade agreements between the US and China regarding rare earth minerals have provided some hope for trade dialogue, while the EU has expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs [3] - The upcoming employment data in the US is critical for determining future monetary policy and could influence gold prices significantly [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a rebound phase, with key support at $3295 and resistance at $3335 [4][6] - The market is advised to wait for a pullback to $3295 for potential buying opportunities, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid chasing prices [4][6] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions while monitoring key price levels for potential reversals [6][7] Group 4 - Specific trading strategies include shorting gold at $3320-$3323 with a target of $3305-$3300, and buying on dips at $3295-$3300 with a target of $3305-$3310 [7] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of market analysis and adapting strategies based on market conditions to avoid significant losses [8]

贵金属日报 2025-07-01 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金涨 0.54 %，报 768.98 元/克，沪银涨 0.10 %，报 8722.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.40 %， 报 3321.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.45 %，报 36.34 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.24%，美元指数报 96.78 ； 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国经济数据表现弱势，美国 6 月芝加哥 PMI 为 40.4，低于预期的 43 以及前值的 40.5。美国 6 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数为-12.7，低于预期的-10。市场已加大对于联储后续 货币政策边际宽松的预期，当前市场预期联储下半年将分别在九月、十月以及十二月议息会议 中进行 25 个基点的降息操作，高于前期两次 25 个基点的降息预期。 当前美联储的货币政策已不完全具备"独立性"，就业和通胀数据并非其维持高息环境的主要 原因：美联储以通胀和就业为双重政策目标，而关税政策所带来的 ...