Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Rapeseed Oil - This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 10,061 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is approaching, and the high yield will put pressure on its price. The new progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is beneficial to the palm oil market, but the palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for seven consecutive months. The initial ruling on the anti - dumping policy of Canadian rapeseed in China has been announced, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, which will support its price. It is recommended to participate in a bullish way and pay attention to the China - Canada trade situation [8]. Rapeseed Meal - This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of U.S. soybeans is progressing actively, and the expected high yield restricts the price. China has not ordered U.S. soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure remains. The soybean issue will be discussed at the APEC summit. The U.S. old - crop soybean inventory is lower than expected. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and U.S. soybeans will still be restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal will decline due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. It is recommended to participate in the short - term and pay attention to China - Canada and China - U.S. trade policies [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in a bullish way and pay attention to China - Canada trade [7]. - Market review: The 01 contract closed at 10,061 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: Canadian high - yield pressure, Indonesia's policy impact, palm oil inventory increase in Malaysia, and China's anti - dumping policy support rapeseed oil price [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [11]. - Market review: The 01 contract closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: U.S. soybean harvest, export pressure, inventory situation, and China's import restrictions, along with weakening demand, affect rapeseed meal price [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 313,988 lots, up 10,548 lots from before the holiday. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, with a total position of 371,708 lots, up 18,844 lots from before the holiday [18]. - The top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures decreased, and the top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures increased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 9,199 lots [30][31]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis was +309 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,440 yuan/ton, falling from last week, and the basis was +49 yuan/ton [37][43]. Futures Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +459 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +65 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in the same period in recent years [50]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal 01 contracts was 4.21, and the average spot price ratio was 4.07 [53]. Price Spread between Oils and Meals - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,759 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 623 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 531 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 430 yuan/ton [63][69]. 3. Industry Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in October, November, and December were 150,000, 450,000, and 505,000 tons respectively. The spot crushing profit was +1,457 yuan/ton. In the 40th week of 2025, the crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 10,000 tons, down 33,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 2.45%. In August 2025, the import volume was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.52% [74][78][82][86]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the 39th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. In August 2025, the import volume was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [91]. - Demand: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,506,000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan. As of the 39th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.54% [95][99]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the 39th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 17,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In August 2025, the import volume was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.72% [103][107]. - Demand: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,927,200 tons [111]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of October 10, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20%, down 8.91% from last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114].

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-10-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 02 油脂：短期跟随外盘补涨，中长期偏强对待 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月30日，华东现货报价2890元/吨，月度报价下跌80元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2928元/吨，月度下跌127元/吨；基差报价01-40 元/吨，基差价格上涨50元/吨。月度受中美贸易预期改善以及阿根廷大豆出口税取消影响，美豆承压下行；国内进口成本回落叠加供应预期改 善，价格大幅下跌，现货受制于供应压力，表现持续偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段，受3-5价差利润丰厚，农民加快种植，截至9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Rebound**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - **Stronger Operation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Cotton, live pigs [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red dates [1] Core Views - **Bean Meal**: Short - term rebound expected due to potential US - China trade talks on soybeans, post - holiday market recovery in China, and dry planting weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, with multiple factors in a tug - of - war. It is likely to follow the trend of bean meal as social inventory may decrease during the holiday [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia and reduced inventory in Malaysia are expected to boost domestic palm oil prices after the holiday [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish. Influenced by the US - China trade situation, Brazilian weather, and the palm oil market, it is expected to open higher after the holiday [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to run strongly due to low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment, and the entry into the consumption season [1]. - **Cotton**: Bearish. Supply pressure from new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, weak demand, and no significant support from the spot market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. New fruit may face pressure after listing. There may be volatile price movements before November, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish. High supply and expected weakening demand may lead to further decline in futures prices after the holiday. Short - allocation and reverse spreads are recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 938.5 million tons, up 40.2 million tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, up 3.63% week - on - week, and bean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, down 4.86% week - on - week [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The national average spot price was 3018.57 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 2.6 million tons, down 2 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average spot price was 2581.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national key region commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, down 5.62% week - on - week, up 9.16% year - on - year [8]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The national average price was 9185 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [7]. Cotton - **Market Data**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 103.15 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Spinning mill operating rates were relatively stable, and weaving mill operating rates declined slightly [9][11]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (3128B) dropped 103 yuan/ton during the holiday [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: Mysteel estimated new - season production at 56 - 62 million tons. 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory was 9203 tons, down 44 tons week - on - week [15]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10820 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Spot prices were generally stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' monthly生猪存栏量 was 3782.4 million, up 0.51%, and monthly出栏量 was 1117.72 million, up 2.39% [17]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract Lh2511 was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. National average spot price of external ternary pigs dropped to 12.51 yuan/kg during the holiday [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated at 1.81 million tons, down 2.35% month - on - month. Indonesia plans to implement B50 next year, which may lift the palm oil price after the holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: Sino - US negotiation issues have no substantial progress, and there is no news of China purchasing US soybeans. The abundant supply of US soybeans has pressured the CBOT soybean price, and US soybean oil may follow the downward trend of raw material prices [1]. Meal - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated. China has not lifted the ban on US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybeans. In Q4 2025, China's soybean supply is sufficient, but there is a supply gap expected in Q1 2026, which may support the price of the 2601 contract. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased by 15.72% year - on - year. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, new sugar has been listed, and the sugar price is in the undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, expected to remain range - bound [4]. Corn - During the National Day, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price declined. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to - late October, the price is under pressure. The demand is weak currently, but there may be seasonal restocking needs later. Corn will maintain a weak trend [5]. Pork - During the National Day, the pig price dropped significantly, but there were signs of stabilization at the end of the holiday. In the short term, the spot price may stabilize, but in the long term, the supply pressure will continue, and the policy to reduce production capacity needs time to take effect. The futures operation is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton is in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestically, due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand, the cotton price is weak. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, and the overall cotton price is expected to be bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market will be in a pattern of relatively high supply and temporarily weak demand. The egg price will continue to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On September 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8380 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10250 yuan/ton, up 0.49%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10044 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 244, up 2.52%; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil was 192, up 10.34%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil was 523, up 3.98% [1]. Meal - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 190, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 104, up 11.83% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5493 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5458 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/pound, down 1.92% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Industry Data**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales volume was 10 million tons, up 12.87%. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, up 4.59%; the monthly sales volume was 260,200 tons, down 27.14% [4]. Corn - **Price Changes**: The price of corn 2511 was 2143 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2240 yuan/ton, down 1.75%. The price of corn starch 2511 was 2468 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [5]. - **Profit and Spread**: The north - south trade profit was 124 yuan/ton, up 47.62%; the import profit was 496 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The 11 - 3 spread of corn was - 1, down 110.00%; the 11 - 3 spread of corn starch was 7, down 66.67% [5]. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract for live pigs was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; the price of the 2601 contract was 12825 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The 11 - 1 spread was - 470, up 4.08% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price in Shandong was 12700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [9]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.86%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 64.94 cents/pound, up 0.78% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 14860 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the CC Index 3128B was 14759 yuan/ton, up 0.01% [11]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, down 20.6%; the industrial inventory was 0.8621 million tons, down 3.4%. The import volume was 70,000 tons, up 40% [11]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the 11 - contract for eggs was 3038 yuan/500KG, up 0.73%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3360 yuan/500KG, up 0.24%. The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.64% [14]. - **Profit and Ratio**: The egg - feed ratio was 2.85, up 7.95%; the breeding profit was 3.20 yuan/feather, up 135.13% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, MPOA estimates Malaysia's September 2025 palm oil production at 1.81 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Analysts predict an average production of 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease. Exports are estimated at 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% increase, and inventory at 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease. Indonesia's plan to implement B50 bio - diesel may raise the palm oil price after the holiday. In the soybean oil market, due to the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations and sufficient US soybean supply, CBOT soybean prices are under pressure, and US soybean oil may follow suit [1]. Meal Products - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated and strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of negotiations, China has not resumed US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December, supporting Brazilian premiums. China's soybean supply is sufficient in Q4 2025 but may be short in Q1 2026. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The M2601 contract is expected to be cautiously bullish in the 2900 - 2950 range [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, Brazil's central - southern sugar production increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, the new sugar season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and after the holiday stocking, the market is quiet. Considering natural disasters, the domestic sugar price is in a relatively undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, and is expected to remain range - bound between 5400 - 5600 [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - During the National Day holiday, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price decreased with the supply. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - October, the price is under pressure due to good harvest expectations and lower production costs. The demand is currently weak, but feed and processing enterprises may replenish inventory seasonally. Corn is expected to remain weak during the concentrated listing period [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the National Day holiday, pig prices dropped significantly, with spot prices below 6 yuan per catty. The pressure on supply will continue to be released in the fourth quarter due to increased出栏 volume and weight gain. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time to show results. The spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy for the futures market is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton prices are oscillating weakly near a six - month low due to the lack of key crop data after the US government shutdown. Domestically, the supply increase and weak demand have put downward pressure on cotton prices. During the National Day holiday, the purchase price of cottonseed stabilized, but the procurement of lint by textile enterprises almost stopped. Overall, the cotton price is expected to remain bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market is expected to have relatively high supply and weak demand. The egg price is likely to continue to decline due to high inventory levels, lack of strong demand after the holidays, and cautious market sentiment [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: From September 29 to 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil dropped from 8400 to 8380 (- 0.24%), the futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8150 to 8140 (- 0.12%), and the basis of Y2601 fell from 250 to 240 (- 4.00%). For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree dropped from 9110 to 9060 (- 0.55%), the futures price of P2601 decreased from 9234 to 9228 (- 0.06%), and the basis of P2601 fell from - 124 to - 168 (- 35.48%). The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil rose from 10200 to 10250 (0.49%), the futures price of OI601 decreased from 10093 to 10044 (- 0.49%), and the basis of OI601 increased from 107 to 206 (92.52%) [1]. - **Inventory and Trade**: Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease in September. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port changed, with the cost increasing by 1.09% and the profit decreasing by 23.89% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 2940, the futures price of M2601 decreased from 2933 to 2928 (- 0.17%), and the basis of M2601 increased from 7 to 12 (71.43%). The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 increased from 2416 to 2421 (0.21%), and the basis of RM2601 decreased from 84 to 79 (- 5.95%) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: China has not resumed US soybean purchases, and Brazil's new soybean supply is expected to increase. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: The futures price of SR2601 increased from 5479 to 5493 (0.26%), and SR2605 increased from 5437 to 5458 (0.39%). The ICE raw sugar futures price decreased from 16.64 to 16.32 (- 1.92%). The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 12.87% respectively. The cumulative national sugar sales rate increased by 0.74%, and the cumulative Guangxi sugar sales rate increased by 0.70%. The national industrial sugar inventory increased by 5.24%, and the Guangxi industrial sugar inventory decreased by 2.22% [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: The futures price of C2511 decreased from 2159 to 2143 (- 0.74%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased from 2280 to 2240 (- 1.75%), and the basis decreased from 121 to 97 (- 19.83%). The futures price of CS2511 decreased from 2483 to 2468 (- 0.60%), and the basis increased from 77 to 92 (19.48%) [5]. - **Trade and Inventory**: The north - south corn trade profit increased by 47.62%, and the import profit increased by 0.71%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 35.73% [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price Changes**: The futures price of LH2511 increased from 12295 to 12355 (0.49%), and LH2601 increased from 12785 to 12825 (0.31%). The spot price in Henan decreased from 12550 to 12450, in Shandong from 12850 to 12700, and in Sichuan from 12050 to 11850 [9]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.79%, and the number of sows in stock decreased by 0.10% [9]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: The futures price of CF2605 decreased from 13360 to 13245 (- 0.86%), and CF2601 decreased from 13350 to 13215 (- 1.01%). The ICE US cotton futures price increased from 64.44 to 64.94 (0.78%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased from 14942 to 14860 (- 0.55%) [11]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial cotton inventory decreased by 20.6%, industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, and imports increased by 40%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric decreased, and the export of textile yarn, fabric, and clothing showed different trends [11]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The futures price of JD11 increased from 3016 to 3038 (0.73%), and JD01 increased from 3352 to 3360 (0.24%). The egg - producing area price decreased from 3.44 to 3.42 (- 0.64%), and the basis decreased from 425 to 381 (- 10.38%) [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased from 4.67 to 4.64 (- 0.64%), and the egg - feed ratio increased from 2.64 to 2.85 (7.95%). The breeding profit increased from - 9.11 to 3.20 (135.13%) [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. government shutdown on trade relations, particularly focusing on the tensions between the U.S. and China, and how these tensions are affecting American farmers, especially soybean producers [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Trade Relations - The U.S. government shutdown has created significant pressure on politicians, with various stakeholders, including state governors, voicing concerns about the implications of trade policies on local economies [1]. - Michigan Governor Whitmer criticized the tariffs imposed on China, stating that they not only affect China but also harm U.S. allies like Canada, suggesting that the U.S. is ultimately hurting itself [1]. Group 2: Trump's Response and Political Strategy - In response to criticism, Trump positioned himself as a protector of American soybean farmers, blaming China for their struggles and promising subsidies funded by tariffs [3]. - Trump's narrative attempts to divert public attention from the government shutdown and the political stalemate with Democrats, indicating a strategic move to regain favor with voters as elections approach [5]. Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - The article highlights a disconnect in negotiation priorities, with China focusing on broader issues like bilateral relations and tariffs, while Trump fixates on soybean purchases, indicating a lack of alignment in discussions [5]. - For meaningful cooperation to occur, the U.S. would need to adjust its stance significantly, including lifting restrictions on fentanyl and offering competitive pricing on soybeans compared to Argentina and Brazil [7].

Group 1 - The Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer criticized Trump's tariffs, stating they negatively impacted traditional allies like Canada and were unwise and unnecessary [1] - Trump acknowledged the struggles of American soybean farmers, attributing their difficulties to China's negotiation tactics and announced plans to subsidize them [3][5] - The narrative that China's actions are solely responsible for the plight of American farmers is seen as a diversion from the internal pressures Trump faces due to the government shutdown [5] Group 2 - There is a fundamental mismatch in the negotiation topics between the U.S. and China, with China focusing on broader issues like trade structure and tariffs, while Trump is fixated on soybean purchases [7] - For a successful negotiation, the U.S. would need to show sincerity by addressing issues like fentanyl, Taiwan, and pricing of U.S. soybeans compared to competitors like Argentina and Brazil [7]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need for China and the U.S. to expand their cooperation and achieve mutual benefits, highlighting the importance of collaboration over conflict [1] - China-U.S. trade has significantly increased from less than $2.5 billion in 1979 to nearly $688.3 billion in 2024, demonstrating strong resilience and internal momentum in their economic relationship [1] - The Chinese ambassador suggests that both countries should deepen their interests and work together on issues such as illegal immigration, fentanyl, telecom fraud, financial crimes, cancer prevention, infectious diseases, and artificial intelligence, which could serve as key areas for cooperation and growth [1] Group 2 - The ambassador stresses that recent positive developments in China-U.S. economic talks indicate that equal negotiation is the correct approach to resolving issues [1] - The statement underscores the significance of the Taiwan issue as a political foundation for China-U.S. relations, warning that mishandling it could lead to conflict, and urges the U.S. to adhere to the One China principle and relevant international agreements [1] - The ambassador announces the upcoming launch of the "Chinese Consulate" App for visa functions in the U.S. and invites American friends to visit China, hoping for reciprocal actions from the U.S. to facilitate exchanges between the two nations [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, the short - term supply is sufficient with various influencing factors such as soybean harvest and trade policies, and the prices are expected to decline in the short term [1][3][5]. - **Short - term continued adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors like the US biodiesel policy and soybean harvest, and their prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [1][6][7]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is supported by trade disputes and inventory cycles but limited by trade expansion, maintaining a high - level oscillating trend [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube face supply pressure and other issues, and their prices are cautiously expected to decline. Strategies suggest short - term short - allocation for cotton and seizing short - selling opportunities for jujube [1][8][11][14]. - **Cautiously bearish for live pigs**: Live pigs are under supply pressure in the short and medium term, and there is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soymeal - **Market data**: The futures price of soymeal's main contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 217.4407 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.12 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, a decrease of 70.30 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, and the soymeal inventory was 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Outlook**: The start of the US soybean harvest and the increase in domestic inventory put short - term pressure on soymeal. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continued downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, the US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal's main contract was 2444 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Outlook**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows that of soymeal. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of palm oil's main contract was 9222 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price was 9250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%. The national daily trading volume was 800 tons, an increase of 166.67% [6]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from the previous week. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports increased by 11.31% compared to the same period in August [7]. - **Outlook**: Frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may suppress palm oil's performance before the double festivals. A short - term weak oscillating market is expected. Attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil exports this month and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market data**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.92% to 13405 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.32% to 15059 yuan/ton. ICE cotton's main contract increased by 0.08% to 65.19 cents/pound [9]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is progressing, and the supply pressure is increasing. Domestically, new cotton has started preliminary harvesting, with weak farmers' price - holding sentiment and no obvious rush - to - buy situation. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: The supply side is under pressure, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to maintain a pressured oscillating market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1][8][11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Market data**: The jujube's main contract CJ2601 increased by 2.97% to 11285 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply and demand**: The main jujube - producing areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory is higher than the same period. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Outlook**: Considering the output and inventory, there is still pressure after the new jujubes are listed. Before November, there may be large price fluctuations due to speculation. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1][14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs decreased by 0.98% to 12575 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable at 12760 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Supply and demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the number of piglets born from January to August is increasing, indicating a potential increase in slaughter volume. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is declining [16]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is under double pressure from slaughter and feed. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure will drive the price down. There is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report - Agricultural Products dated September 28, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - The supply - driven price increase is difficult to continue. The European demand support may not end soon, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October and then slowly decline. There may be hidden inventories in Indonesia until the end of the year, and the price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed to next year. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force and will mainly follow the trend of the oil and fat sector [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. It is necessary to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, pay attention to trade events and fundamental data; for soybean, the market expects policy support [20][25] Corn - The corn market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day. It is advisable to short at high prices [33][37] Sugar - The sugar market has a weak basis. Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [59][61] Cotton - It is expected that the cost of new cotton will continue to dominate the futures price trend. Before the National Day, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, it will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [86][102] Group 4: Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [5] - **This Week**: European demand support continues, but the demand side lacks stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October. The price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [5] - **This Week**: The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week**: The price of US soybeans was weak. The domestic soybean meal price was weak, and the soybean price was strong. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, and the excellent - good rate decreased [20] - **This Week**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, avoid trade event risks; for soybean, the market expects policy support [25] Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rebounded last week. The futures price first fell and then rose. The basis remained flat [33][34] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory decreased. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day [34][37] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of New York raw sugar rose, and the net long position of funds decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and the basis of the main contract decreased significantly [59][60] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it will be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [61] Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton was weak, and domestic cotton futures continued to decline [86][89] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the export sales data of US cotton was poor, and the situation in other countries varied. Domestically, the new cotton was expected to be abundant, and the cost was uncertain. The downstream situation was average [90][97] - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton may maintain low - level consolidation. Before the National Day, Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weakly volatile, and after the holiday, the price will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [102]