Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report - Agricultural Products dated September 28, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - The supply - driven price increase is difficult to continue. The European demand support may not end soon, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October and then slowly decline. There may be hidden inventories in Indonesia until the end of the year, and the price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed to next year. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force and will mainly follow the trend of the oil and fat sector [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. It is necessary to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, pay attention to trade events and fundamental data; for soybean, the market expects policy support [20][25] Corn - The corn market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day. It is advisable to short at high prices [33][37] Sugar - The sugar market has a weak basis. Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [59][61] Cotton - It is expected that the cost of new cotton will continue to dominate the futures price trend. Before the National Day, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, it will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [86][102] Group 4: Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [5] - **This Week**: European demand support continues, but the demand side lacks stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October. The price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [5] - **This Week**: The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week**: The price of US soybeans was weak. The domestic soybean meal price was weak, and the soybean price was strong. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, and the excellent - good rate decreased [20] - **This Week**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, avoid trade event risks; for soybean, the market expects policy support [25] Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rebounded last week. The futures price first fell and then rose. The basis remained flat [33][34] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory decreased. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day [34][37] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of New York raw sugar rose, and the net long position of funds decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and the basis of the main contract decreased significantly [59][60] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it will be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [61] Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton was weak, and domestic cotton futures continued to decline [86][89] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the export sales data of US cotton was poor, and the situation in other countries varied. Domestically, the new cotton was expected to be abundant, and the cost was uncertain. The downstream situation was average [90][97] - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton may maintain low - level consolidation. Before the National Day, Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weakly volatile, and after the holiday, the price will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [102]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, characterized by tariffs and export controls, have not hindered the growth of trade between the two nations, with China's exports to the US increasing by 22.7% in the first eight months of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Despite tariffs, China's exports to the US have shown resilience, with a reported growth of 30.3% in the first eight months of the year for certain sectors [2]. - Since the imposition of tariffs in July 2018, the overall trade volume between the US and China has generally been on an upward trend, with a notable increase of 8.8% in 2020 [2][11]. - The demand for "Made in China" products remains strong in the US, as evidenced by consumer experiences during the pandemic [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Interdependence - The economic structures of the US and China are highly complementary, with significant mutual benefits derived from trade [6][8]. - In 2020, Chinese goods accounted for 19% of total US imports, with a substantial portion of essential medical supplies sourced from China [6][8]. - The cost advantages of Chinese manufacturing, including lower labor costs and efficient supply chains, continue to attract US companies [7][10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Despite a decline in US investment in China in certain sectors, there is a growing interest among US companies to expand their operations in China, with 85% of surveyed companies indicating no plans to relocate manufacturing outside of China [13][20]. - The influx of foreign investment into China has been robust, with significant increases from European and ASEAN countries, highlighting China's appeal as a market [13][14]. - The Chinese market's size and growth potential are key factors driving multinational companies to establish or expand their presence in the country [15][16]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology - China's commitment to technological self-reliance and innovation is evident, with increasing investments in research and development [21][23]. - The country is transitioning from a technology follower to a leader in several high-tech fields, demonstrating resilience against external pressures [24][29]. - Collaboration in technology and innovation remains crucial, as both nations benefit from shared advancements and market opportunities [26][30].

来源：第一财经 佩斯科夫：美方近期言论与解决俄乌冲突意愿不冲突； 泽连斯基：已准备好在俄乌冲突结束后离任； 【市场动态】 【时政新闻】 商务部回应中美大豆贸易：美方应采取积极行动，取消相关不合理关税； 商务部回应购买波音飞机的谈判进展：当前影响中美正常经贸合作的最大障碍在于美单边限制措施； 商务部：将亨廷顿·英格尔斯工业公司等3家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单； 商务部：将萨罗尼克科技公司等3家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单； 欧盟官员：欧美贸易协议缺乏安全性，敦促美方回归规则体系； 贸发会议报告：2025年海运贸易将经历近年最慢增长； (本文来自第一财经) 美股三大股指期货齐跌，道指期货跌0.11%，标普500指数期货跌0.35%，纳指期货跌0.51%； 欧洲主要股指齐跌，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.69%，德国DAX指数跌1.03%； 【公司新闻】 英特尔盘前涨2%，此前有报道称该公司正寻求获得苹果的投资。 锂业美洲公司（Lithium Americas）美股盘前涨超20%。该股昨日涨近96%，有报道称，美国政府正寻求 获得公司高达10%的股份。 ...

9月25日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。有记者提问称，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢日前 会见了美国中西部地区政商代表团，这是否预示着中国将购买该地区的大豆？ 商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，习近平主席指出，中美关系"活力在地方"。中美省州经贸合作是中美经 贸关系不可或缺的组成部分，也是双方加强经贸往来的重要平台和渠道。关于大豆贸易，美方应采取积 极行动，取消相关不合理关税，为扩大双边贸易创造条件，也为全球经济发展注入更多稳定性、确定 性。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. The current domestic supply is sufficient, and factors such as Argentina's zero - tariff export policy and the U.S. soybean harvest are negative for prices. However, the continuous downward space is limited due to Sino - U.S. trade tariff issues [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal is also expected to decline in the short term. Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade needs to be monitored [1][5]. - Palm oil is expected to continue its short - term adjustment. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance [1][7]. - Soybean oil will continue to adjust in the short term. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the approaching U.S. soybean harvest may put pressure on it. It has recently followed the adjustment of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil will maintain a high - level shock. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic de - stocking cycle support its price, but the development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - Cotton is recommended to be short - allocated in the short term. The increasing supply from the U.S. and other Northern Hemisphere countries, weak export demand, and the start of domestic new cotton harvesting with no obvious price - support behavior contribute to the bearish outlook [1][11]. - For jujubes, it is advisable to be cautious and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Although the market's concerns about quality are gradually alleviated, there is still pressure after the new fruit is launched, and there may be large price fluctuations before November [1][15]. - For live pigs, the short - term 11 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy should be maintained. The spot market is under pressure from both supply and feed price adjustments [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.983 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 tons; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a decrease of 385,400 tons or 5.26% from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week [3]. - The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,930 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,988 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan or 0.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - The futures price of the main contract was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 2.13% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,533.68 yuan/ton, down 56.85 yuan or 2.19% [4]. Palm Oil - As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 585,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,400 tons or 8.79% [7]. - The futures price of the main contract was 9,126 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,065 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 1.23% [6]. Cotton - The U.S. cotton area's boll - opening rate reached 60%, and the harvest progress was 12%. The good - to - excellent rate decreased by 5% to 47% week - on - week, but was 10% higher than the same period [9]. - The domestic new cotton harvest progress reached 0.8%. The opening price of new cotton showed no obvious price - support behavior. The import volume of cotton resources in August was about 193,410 tons [10]. - The futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15,091 yuan/ton, down 69.5 yuan or 0.46% [8]. Jujubes - The main jujube - producing areas have entered the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season jujube output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared to previous years [14]. - The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10,785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [12]. Live Pigs - The main contract Lh2511 was stable at 12,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 12,860 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [17]. - In September, the planned slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month. The long - term supply pressure may gradually ease as the inventory of fertile sows decreases [17].

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing an unprecedented crisis during the harvest season, with zero orders from China, which traditionally accounts for a significant portion of their sales [4][10] - The U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be $12.8 billion for 2024, but no orders have been placed this year, indicating a severe market disruption [4][12] - The price of U.S. soybeans has become uncompetitive due to tariffs, being 20% higher than South American counterparts, further exacerbating the situation for farmers [6][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historically, about 25% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, but this year, the figure has dropped to zero, significantly impacting key soybean-producing states [4][10] - China has shifted its soybean imports to Brazil, with August imports reaching 12.279 million tons, marking a record high for four consecutive months [8][10] - By 2025, China's soybean imports from the U.S. are expected to drop to 22.13 million tons, representing only 21% of total imports, as they have signed significant procurement agreements with Brazil and Argentina [8][10] Group 2: Financial Implications - The current market conditions have led to a drastic drop in soybean prices, with spot prices falling to $8.83 per bushel, down from $14.8 three years ago, resulting in financial losses for farmers [10][12] - The number of farm bankruptcies has increased by 55% over the past year, indicating severe financial distress among farmers [10][12] - The U.S. soybean association is pressuring the government for immediate action to mitigate the financial strain on farmers, as delays in reaching agreements with China could lead to further losses [12][16] Group 3: Policy and Trade Relations - The U.S. government has extended the trade truce with China, but has not addressed the issue of tariffs, which continues to hinder U.S. soybean competitiveness [12][16] - Argentina has eliminated export tariffs on soybeans, which could lead to a significant increase in their market share in China, further isolating U.S. soybeans [12][16] - China's strategy is shifting towards a more diversified supply chain, with soybean dependency dropping below 15%, indicating a long-term trend away from U.S. imports [14][16]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, expressed approval of the RMB to USD exchange rate, noting that the RMB has strengthened against the USD this year, increasing by approximately 3% [1][3] - Bessent highlighted that the RMB is at a historical low against the Euro, which poses a problem for Europe, as the RMB has depreciated about 10% against the Euro [1][3] - Recent data indicates that the RMB to Euro exchange rate has reached a historical low of over 8.4, compared to 7.5 at the beginning of 2025, which may boost China's exports to Europe and increase the EU's trade deficit with China [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government maintains that the RMB exchange rate has remained stable at a reasonable level, with the RMB index against a basket of currencies operating around 100 since 2020, indicating no competitive devaluation [3] - As of September 19, the central parity rate of the RMB was reported at 7.1128 against the USD and 8.3834 against the Euro [3] - Bessent defended the U.S. tariff policies, claiming that the trade deficit with China may decrease by 30% this year due to these tariffs [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal**: Short - term decline, with limited continuous decline space due to Sino - US trade issues, and treated as a large - range market. Caution is needed when short - selling below 2940 yuan [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline, with multiple and short factors intertwined due to trade policies and high inventory. It follows the trend of beans and meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade should be monitored [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation, with a generally positive fundamental outlook. Look for short - term long opportunities on dips, but gradually control positions and risk management [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation, pressured by the US bio - diesel policy and approaching soybean harvest, while supported by domestic double - festival stocking demand. Be cautious when going long [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating upwards, supported by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted by the development of Sino - Australian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish, with supply pressure from the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Domestically, beware of short - term rebound due to potential抢购. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish, with concerns about quality gradually easing. There may be significant price fluctuations before November. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term decline, with the spot market under pressure from supply. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the November contract and an inverse spread strategy [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Beans and Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.50 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, up 1.50 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2470 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.84 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9304 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day; the national average price was 9308 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week [8]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day; the domestic spot price rose 0.06% to 15330 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest season. Domestically, new cotton is about to be listed, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10620 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main producing areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12830 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the previous day; the spot price was 13040 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month, and the出栏 volume was 1117.72 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term outlook is bearish. Soybean meal is affected by the increase in US soybean production and inventory, and rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and high inventory [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to consolidate in the short term. Palm oil has positive consumption expectations due to biodiesel policies and purchase demand, while soybean oil faces pressure from the approaching US soybean harvest and high domestic inventory [1]. - **Oscillating with a Bullish Bias**: Rapeseed oil is likely to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the China - Canada trade dispute and dual - festival demand, but limited by the resumption of China - Australia trade [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply is under pressure from the increasing output in the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the short - term bottom of the domestic market is supported by tight supply before new cotton listing and a lower inventory - to - sales ratio [1]. - **Cautious Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. There is pressure after the new jujube harvest considering the production forecast and carry - over inventory, but there may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Live pigs are cautiously bullish. The spot and near - term contracts may have limited further decline, and the price may rise as the peak season approaches and the far - term capacity is reduced [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.5 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, 1.5 million tons more than last week. The futures price of the main contract was 3041 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 3067.14 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan [2][3]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish but the decline space is limited due to approaching the spot price and Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons. The futures price of the main contract was 2518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 2684.21 yuan/ton, up 18.95 yuan [5][7]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish, and its trend mainly follows soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the results of China - Canada meetings [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract was 9482 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day, and the national average price was 9508 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental outlook is bullish. The idea is to go long when the price is low, and attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil export situation this month [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.07% to 13895 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.29% to 15300 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract rose 1.24% to 67.67 cents/pound. The national cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period by 46.11 million tons [10][11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Before new cotton listing, it is advisable to conduct range operations and pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for far - month contracts [1]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube fell 0.55% to 10805 yuan/ton. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week, higher than the same period by 4593 tons [14][15]. - **Outlook**: There is pressure after new jujube harvest. In the short term, the concern about quality issues is alleviated, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to sell high during price fluctuations [1]. Live Pig - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pig fell 0.87% to 13160 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price rose 0.30% to 13340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig存栏量 was 3782.4 million tons, up 19.08 million tons month - on - month, and the出栏量 was 1117.72 million heads, up 26.04 million heads month - on - month [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The spot and near - term contracts have limited further decline space. The price may rise as the peak season approaches and far - term capacity is reduced. It is not recommended to short further for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to going long for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].