Investment Rating - The industry rating for pig farming is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The final ruling on anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressure to some extent, with anti-dumping tax rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [2][5] - The EU is a significant source of pork imports for China, accounting for over 50% of imports in the first three quarters of 2025, with Spain being the largest supplier [3] - Domestic pig prices have been persistently low, leading to increased losses for farmers, with self-breeding farmers experiencing losses for 13 consecutive weeks as of mid-December 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against EU pork imports, confirming the existence of dumping practices [2] Analysis and Judgment - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 1.93 million tons of pork, with 990,000 tons from the EU, representing 51% of total imports [3] - The domestic pig farming sector is undergoing both active and passive capacity reduction due to ongoing losses and policy guidance, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to below 40 million [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming stocks, particularly those with low costs and strong growth potential, such as: 1. Lihua Co., which has seen a continuous decline in costs since 2024, with a target cost of 12 yuan/kg by year-end [5] 2. Muyuan Foods, which maintains profitability despite low pig prices and has a strong integrated business model [5] 3. Shuanghui Development, benefiting from stable meat product sales and expected cost advantages in 2025 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese government has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on pork and pork by-products imported from the EU, which is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressure and potentially lead to a price reversal in the pork market [1] - The anti-dumping tax rates will range from 4.9% to 19.8%, effective from December 17, 2025, following the final ruling by the Ministry of Commerce [1] - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 1.93 million tons of pork and related products, with 990,000 tons (51%) coming from the EU, making Spain the largest supplier [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which includes companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock sector [2] - The Livestock ETF has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, indicating the weight of companies related to pig farming, feed, and animal health within the index [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping tax on imported pork and pork by-products from the EU, effective from December 17, 2025, with rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% for a duration of five years [1] - The decision was made in response to significant damage caused to the domestic industry due to dumping practices, reflecting strong calls for protection from local producers [1] - The report indicates that the investigation was conducted fairly, with input from various stakeholders, leading to the conclusion that EU imports have harmed the domestic pork industry [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the anti-dumping tax is seen as a positive signal for the pig farming industry, which is currently at the bottom of its cycle [2] - Investment strategies should follow a "breeding first, animal health and feed later" logic, with close monitoring of key metrics such as the number of breeding sows, pork prices, and monthly sales data to validate trends [2]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply side of soybeans has significant supporting factors, but the demand side has weak recovery, with short - term prices in a volatile pattern and potential for further decline if import soybean near - month auction volume drops [1] - The selling pressure on corn prices is gradually decreasing, and after the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase and suppress short - term price increases, but the worst stage is over, and it's worth watching for buying opportunities around New Year's Day [1] - Egg prices are stabilizing, with short - term supply remaining loose and demand lacking highlights during the double - festival stocking period. There may be a chance of price recovery after the festival if there is over - culling, but short - term prices are expected to be volatile [2] - The pig - breeding industry has been in the capacity - reduction stage since July 2025. The supply is still loose at present, with large short - term supply pressure, but there is a possibility of price increase for far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Industry Situation Details Soybeans - On the supply side, large - scale buyers' purchase prices are rising steadily, the purchase price of China Grain Reserves Corporation provides a bottom support, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the supply of high - quality soybeans in the south is decreasing [1] - On the demand side, downstream consumption recovery is weak, the actual trading atmosphere has not improved with price trends, and enterprises in sales areas mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand [1] Corn - The average sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data, with the fastest being 42% from the National Grain and Oil Information Center. Heilongjiang is at 50%, Jilin at 36%, Liaoning at 44%, and Inner Mongolia at 36% [1] Eggs - Egg spot prices are stabilizing, but the upward driving force is weakening as prices approach the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, demand during the double - festival stocking period is not prominent, and the overall number of culled chickens is still much higher than the same period in previous years [2] Pigs - Since July 2025, the pig - breeding industry has been reducing capacity. By the end of October, the national inventory of breeding sows dropped to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decline of 1.1%, and the capacity reduction accelerated in October [2] - The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in December increased by about 3.2% month - on - month, and the overall slaughter pressure is still large under the pessimistic industry expectation [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector experienced a slight decline, with the agricultural index down by 0.08%, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig price is fluctuating at a low level, with expectations of continued capacity reduction due to oversupply [5][15] - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices and a slight increase in meat chicken prices, supported by holiday stocking [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector saw a minor decline, with the agricultural index down 0.08% [12] - The animal health and pig farming sectors led the gains due to ongoing low pig prices [13] 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - Pig prices are fluctuating around 11 CNY/kg, showing a trend of bottoming out [5][15] - Supply exceeds demand, with expectations of continued increases in pig output due to prior increases in piglet supply [15][18] - The industry is currently experiencing overall losses, with expectations that pig prices have not yet reached their lowest point [18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - As of December 12, chick prices are stable at 3.7 CNY/chick, with an average profit of approximately 0.8 CNY per chick [6][28] - Meat chicken prices have increased by 1.39% to 3.65 CNY/jin, supported by holiday demand [6][28] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with an average price of 5393 CNY/ton as of December 12, down 56 CNY from the previous week [30] - Soybean prices have decreased, with Brazilian soybeans at 3762 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4329 CNY/ton, both down 2.1% [30] - Corn prices are rising, with an average price of 2299 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY from the previous week [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, a new industrial pattern was basically formed. Group companies continued the incremental trend, the profit of the breeding port expanded, some large - scale farms and individual farmers shifted to the professional fattening model, the stocking model expanded significantly, market flexibility increased again, and the dual - drive of raw materials and management led to a further decline in the cost center. In the first half of 2026, the supply increment trend was difficult to reverse, and the spot price would seek the cycle bottom. If it fell below the cash - flow cost, it might stimulate the acceleration of capacity elimination. In the second half of 2026, the inventory cycle was at a low level. The speculative replenishment demand in the third quarter provided support, and the regular demand increased in the fourth quarter. The price center might rise compared with the first half, and a slight profit pattern was expected [2][44][45]. - The main trading logic in the first half of 2026 was the capacity cycle anchored by the industry's cash - flow cost, maintaining a contango structure as a whole. In the second half, there would be a rebound repair market after the phased bottom and a reality repair market after the high - expectation on the disk was realized. The forward premium structure brought stronger game - playing for the cycle reversal market, and the industry could reasonably arrange hedging according to the expected profit [3][47]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Review of the Live Pig Futures and Spot Market - The core law of the live pig futures and spot market in 2025 was the reality repair after the advance of spot and policy expectations. The market expected a large increase in capacity in 2025 due to high profits in the second half of 2024, and anchored each contract to the cost in advance. However, in the first quarter, the low social inventory and continuous high profits led to strong inventory accumulation space and willingness in the industry, and the increase in supply was not effectively released, so the disk repaired upwards. From June to July, the policy - driven expectations of inventory and capacity reduction drove the disk up, but as the supply pressure gradually released, the spot price led the disk to decline [6]. - The futures and spot price trends in 2025 could be divided into four stages: - January - February: Weak expectations advanced, and prices were anchored to the cost. The market expected the industry to enter an incremental cycle in advance and anchored the January contract below the cost, with a discount of nearly 3000 yuan/ton to the spot price [7]. - March - May: The reality was stronger, and the disk repaired. After the Spring Festival, the social inventory and weight level decreased. From the end of February, the industry entered the stage of restocking. The price of piglets rose rapidly, and group farms actively sold, reducing the pen pressure. The feed weight - gain cost was lower than in previous years, and group farms also started the active weight - gain trend in March. The low frozen - product inventory supported the demand in the off - season, and the disk repaired its valuation upwards [8]. - June - July: Affected by policies, market sentiment was high. The low - inventory and high - profit pattern in the first half led to strong inventory - accumulation continuity. Although some leading enterprises announced weight reduction and banning secondary fattening according to policy guidance, the flexibility of medium - sized and speculative groups was higher, which extended the policy - driven inventory reduction and increased short - term fluctuations in the disk and spot prices. On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on the high - quality development of the live pig industry, and the live pig futures rose sharply following the commodity sentiment [9]. - August - December: Policies were implemented, and industrial logic was realized. As the policy - driven expectations of inventory and capacity reduction cooled down and specific policies were implemented, most clauses aimed at adjusting the long - term supply, and it was difficult to quickly reverse the short - term oversupply situation in the spot market. The industrial logic returned. The Guangxi warehouse - receipt price dropped from 14,000 yuan/ton to a minimum of 10,000 yuan/ton, and the disk price continued to fall from a high of 15,000 yuan/ton to a minimum of 11,020 yuan/ton [10]. 2. 2026 Live Pig Operation Logic: Dual - Drive of Policy and Market Profit, and the Direction of Capacity Reduction is Determined 2.1 Supply Side - The industry was about to enter a stage of continuous and deep losses, and the pattern of capacity reduction was determined. In recent years, due to the continuous decline in raw material prices such as corn and soybean meal, the breeding cost center had dropped rapidly. The industry entered the loss stage in September 2025, and with strong policy - driven willingness to reduce capacity, the pattern of capacity reduction was determined. However, due to the lag in the pig production chain, the supply would still maintain an incremental trend in the first half of 2026, and the supply situation in the second half was more variable, with the market's capacity - reduction effect expected to be initially realized [13]. - Policy intervention confirmed the direction of capacity reduction. The policy determined the direction of capacity adjustment, and the data of breeding sows initially reflected this. In May 2025, the live pig industry was included in the anti - involution industry, and the policy would adjust the capacity in a timely manner. A series of policy measures were implemented, and the number of breeding sows began to decline in July, with the inventory decreasing to 39.9 million heads in October [14]. - The industry's cash flow was still sufficient, and the acceleration of inventory reduction would start the capacity - reduction process. The industry had been profitable, and the cost center had decreased, resulting in sufficient cash flow. As of the fourth quarter of 2025, the full cost of Muyuan Co., Ltd. had dropped to 11.3 yuan/kg, and the costs of other leading breeding enterprises had also decreased. As of mid - September 2025, most self - breeding and self - fattening groups still had profits, making it difficult to drive the whole market to actively reduce capacity. As of early December 2025, the market was still in the passive inventory - accumulation stage, but with the arrival of the winter solstice peak season, the social and group sectors would actively increase the supply and reduce the weight, starting the inventory - reduction stage. If the weight - reduction target could be achieved before the Spring Festival, it would mark the start of capacity reduction [16][22]. - Continuous and deep losses would stimulate capacity reduction. Reviewing the pig cycle, it was found that the cycle duration after African swine fever was shorter than before, but the capacity cycle was the core, and the profit cycle was the driving force. In 2021 and 2023, continuous losses led to effective capacity reduction and cycle reversal. In the fourth quarter of 2025, self - breeding and self - fattening only suffered losses for half a month, and the loss depth was limited. If there were deep losses below the cash - flow cost in the first half of 2026 and they lasted for a long time, it would stimulate the acceleration of capacity reduction [24][25]. 2.2 Demand Side - Overall demand was stable, and speculative demand decreased. - The total pork consumption increased year - on - year, and it was difficult to have higher elasticity in 2026. In 2025, the total pork slaughter volume increased significantly year - on - year and was at a historical high. The high slaughter volume and price in the first half were slightly stronger than in the same period of 2024, indicating that the consumption capacity had increased. The low frozen - product inventory and small price difference between frozen and fresh products stimulated the conversion of frozen - product consumption to fresh - product consumption. The low price in 2025 had stimulated pork consumption, and there was limited space for additional consumption growth in 2026, and the pickled meat reserve might overdraw the next year's consumption [32]. - In recent years, the seasonal influence of speculative demand had increased. The seasonal consumption pattern of live pigs still followed the traditional rules, but the influence of secondary fattening speculative demand had increased significantly and had certain seasonal characteristics. However, since June 2025, the secondary fattening group had suffered multiple losses, and the expected concentrated release of pressure in December 2025 might suppress the enthusiasm of the secondary fattening group in 2026 [41]. - The room for further decline in the cost side was limited, and policy - driven demand might provide support. Feed raw material prices were at a relatively low level in recent years, and the room for further decline was limited. The industry's average cost had decreased to 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and there was no strong driving force for a significant cost reduction. There was an expectation of continuous state reserve purchases when the pig - grain price ratio fell below 5:1, which would strengthen the bottom - level policy - driven demand support [43]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Conclusion - The direction of capacity reduction was determined, and the bottom - grinding stage might exceed expectations. In 2026, the supply increment trend in the first half was difficult to reverse, and the spot price would seek the cycle bottom. If it fell below the cash - flow cost, it might stimulate the acceleration of capacity elimination. In the second half, the inventory cycle was at a low level, and the price center might rise, with a slight profit pattern expected [44][45]. - Supply side: The industry's cash flow was sufficient in 2025, so the supply increment pattern in the first half of 2026 was difficult to change. As of early December 2025, the market was still in the passive inventory - accumulation stage. In the first quarter of 2026, the key was whether the weight inventory could be cleared. In the second quarter, the supply of standard pigs was large, and if there was secondary fattening - related supply after the Spring Festival, the market pressure from April to May would increase. Although policies and market losses in the fourth quarter of 2025 stimulated capacity reduction, the impact on the overall supply in the third quarter of 2026 was limited, and the supply might decrease year - on - year in the fourth quarter [45]. - Demand side: In 2025, the regular demand exceeded expectations due to the stimulating effect of low prices on pork consumption. However, the consumption elasticity was limited, and it was difficult to have additional regular consumption growth in 2026. The low price in September - October 2025 had advanced some slaughter and storage, which might overdraw the off - season frozen - product storage demand in 2026. The demand for piglets might be suppressed, and the secondary fattening seasonality in 2026 was expected to be weaker than in 2025. In the first half of 2026, the price center was low, and the demand elasticity was weak. If a panic bottom appeared, the speculative demand for cycle reversal might be boosted in the second half [46]. 3.2 Investment Outlook - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the industry's profit turned negative, and the dual - drive of policy and market started capacity reduction. In 2026, the marginal supply was expected to decline, but the decline in the cost center suppressed the enthusiasm for active capacity reduction. Only when the price dropped deeply and stayed below the cost for a long time could it stimulate sufficient capacity reduction. - In the first half of 2026, the core fluctuation range of the spot price was expected to be 10,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton, and the futures index was expected to fluctuate between 10,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. In the second half, the core fluctuation range of the spot price was expected to be 11,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and the futures index was expected to fluctuate between 12,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton. - In terms of rhythm, the main trading logic in the first half of 2026 was the capacity cycle anchored by the industry's cash - flow cost, maintaining a contango structure. In the second half, there would be a rebound repair market after the phased bottom and a reality repair market after the high - expectation on the disk was realized. The forward premium structure brought stronger game - playing for the cycle reversal market, and the industry could reasonably arrange hedging according to the expected profit [47].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][42]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing intensified losses, with a significant acceleration in capacity reduction. The report recommends a left-side investment strategy focusing on the pig farming sector [2][36]. - Pig prices are at a bottom and continue to fluctuate, with losses widening. The average loss for self-breeding sows is reported to exceed 120 CNY per head [2][36]. - The pet food sector shows continued industry vitality, with online sales growth of 17% year-on-year for October and November [2][36]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 0.1%, mirroring the decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [2]. - Top gainers included *ST Zhengbang (19.4%), BioShares (17.2%), and Pingtan Development (13.8%) [2][8]. Pig Farming - The report highlights that pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with losses continuing to expand. The average loss for self-breeding sows is approximately 128.3 CNY per head for those with fewer than 50 sows and 146.5 CNY for those with 5,000 to 10,000 sows [2][36]. - The report suggests that the ongoing losses and the seasonal decline in pig prices may catalyze a faster capacity reduction in the industry [2][36]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a combined sales figure of 7.02 billion CNY for October and November, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [2][36]. - Notable brands such as GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co. reported significant growth in sales, with GuaiBao Pet achieving a 40% increase [2][36]. Chicken Farming - The report notes a slight rebound in prices for broiler chickens, with the average selling price for white feather broiler chicks at 3.33 CNY per chick, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.22% [2][36]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of white chickens remains abundant, which is expected to be a key theme for 2025-2026 [2][36]. Beef Market - The prices for beef and calves have shown a slight increase, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY per kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [2][36].

Group 1: Swine Breeding Industry - The swine breeding sector is experiencing intensified losses, with the average loss per head for self-breeding sows exceeding 120 CNY [1] - As of December 14, the national average selling price of external three-yuan pigs is 11.54 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.9% [1] - The losses are expected to continue, with self-breeding sows under 50 heads facing an average loss of approximately 128.3 CNY per head, and those with 5000-10000 heads facing about 146.5 CNY per head [1] - The industry is likely to see accelerated capacity reduction due to the ongoing losses and seasonal disease outbreaks [1] - Recommended stocks for left-side investment opportunities include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, and Tiankang Biological [1] Group 2: Pet Food Industry - The pet food industry continues to show growth, with online GMV for October-November increasing by 17% year-on-year [2] - The combined sales for Tmall, JD, and Douyin platforms in October-November reached 7.02 billion CNY, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [2] - Notable growth in specific brands includes a 40% increase for Guibao Pet, and 76% for Zhongchong Co., with individual products showing significant year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Broiler Chicken Industry - The price of broiler chickens has seen a slight rebound, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.33 CNY per chick, up 1.22% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of broiler meat is 3.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.85% [3] - The industry is expected to maintain a focus on leading enterprises and long-term value, with an emphasis on demand-side improvements [3] Group 4: Beef Industry - Prices for beef and calves have shown slight increases, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY/kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [4] - The average price for calves is 32.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.09% [4] - However, the wholesale market price for beef has decreased to 66.17 CNY/kg, down 0.59% week-on-week [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on the Aquaculture Industry - Report Date: December 15, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 (Practice), Z0020750 (Investment Consultation) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the futures price is oscillating. In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability, and in the long - term, the price is expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed [5][57]. - **Eggs**: The inventory base is still large, and the futures market shows near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - **Corn**: There is still selling pressure to be digested, and the futures market should be cautiously chased up. In the short term, selling pressure needs to be released, and in the long - term, the cost has strong support but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [8][101]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Aquaculture Viewpoints Summary Pigs - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the national spot price was 11.34 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg from last week. The futures price of live pigs 2503 reached 11,325 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week. The 03 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price first declined and then rose [5][14][57]. - **Supply Side**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September and the de - capacity accelerated in October. Before the first half of next year, the supply will remain high. From December to the first quarter of next year, the supply pressure is still large. The planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises in December increased month - on - month [5][18][57]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume continued to increase, the white - strip pork price rose slightly, the terminal consumption increased seasonally, and the fresh - sales rate continued to rise. However, the frozen - product inventory is high, which will suppress supply in the future [5][57]. - **Cost Side**: The weekly piglet price rose slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit loss narrowed [5][57]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability; in the long term, the price in the second half of next year is expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][57]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For short - term near - month contracts, consider short - selling on rebounds; for long - term far - month contracts, be cautiously bullish, and industries can hedge on rebounds above profits [5][57]. Eggs - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday. The futures price of the main egg 2601 contract was 3,077 yuan/500 kg, down 40 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 387 yuan/500 kg, up 90 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price rose slightly, and the futures market was volatile at the bottom [7][63][81]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in December decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the supply pressure weakened marginally, but the inventory base was still large. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market will experience a bottom - grinding process [7][81]. - **Demand Side**: The terminal demand lacks festival support, but the cold weather stimulates channel inventory demand. The high vegetable prices and the low - priced eggs drive the terminal substitution demand [7][81]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price lacks driving force; in the long term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 01 contract, breeding enterprises can hedge on rebounds; in the medium term, if there is large - scale culling around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the post - festival supply pressure; in the long term, pay attention to external factors for passive de - capacity [7][81]. Corn - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2601 contract was 2,242 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 73 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price stagnated and slightly declined [8][86][101]. - **Supply Side**: The national grass - roots grain sales progress was 40%, which was relatively fast. The import of international grains remained low. The inventory in the north and south ports decreased month - on - month [8][101]. - **Demand Side**: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports rigid feed demand. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the wheat substitution may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to high inventory and low profit [8][101]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and the price rebound height is limited; in the long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose [8][101]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, be cautious about chasing up the futures market, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [8][101]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis - **Pigs**: It includes data such as slaughter weight, fat - standard price difference, slaughter rate, fresh - sales rate, frozen - product inventory rate, pig - grain ratio, and breeding profit [10]. - **Eggs**: It contains data on egg prices, hatching egg utilization rate, culled chicken sales, egg sales volume, inventory days, and breeding profit [64]. - **Corn**: It involves data on corn prices, grain - selling progress, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise start - up rate, and processing profit [87].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing intensified losses, with a gradual acceleration in capacity reduction. The report recommends focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the pig farming sector as pig prices remain at a low and fluctuating level [2][3]. - The report highlights that the online sales of pet food have shown a year-on-year increase of 17% for October and November, suggesting a resilient market despite previous adjustments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index decreased by 0.1%, mirroring the decline in the CSI 300 index. The top five gainers included *ST Zhengbang (19.4%), Shengtai Bio (17.2%), and Pingtan Development (13.8%), while the top five losers included Xiwang Food (-15.4%) and Haili Bio (-13.0%) [2][3]. Pig Farming - The average selling price of three-way cross pigs was reported at 11.54 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.9%. Losses are expected to continue, with self-breeding operations reporting losses exceeding 120 CNY per head for various scales [2][3]. - The report indicates that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, driven by increasing losses and seasonal factors affecting confidence in the market [2][3]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a combined sales figure of 7.02 billion CNY for October and November, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth. Notable brands like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reported significant increases in their sales [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks has seen a slight rebound, with the average selling price at 3.33 CNY/chick, indicating stable pricing since September. The report suggests that the supply remains ample, which will be a key theme for 2025-2026 [2][3]. Beef Market - The prices for beef and calves have shown slight increases, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY/kg, while wholesale beef prices decreased slightly to 66.17 CNY/kg [2][3].