Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing losses in the industry [1][3] - The report highlights a potential acceleration in capacity reduction due to supply pressures and policy guidance [6][19] Group 1: Pig Farming - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.20% month-on-month in September, with a total of 40.35 million sows reported [20][21] - Pig prices have been on the rise, with the average price for market pigs reaching 12.22 CNY/kg on October 30, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.10% [29][30] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 89.33 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 179.72 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 31 [35][37] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather broilers increased to 7.09 CNY/kg on October 31, marking a week-on-week rise of 3.05% [39][42] - The report notes a significant increase in the number of breeding stock, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [39][40] Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in livestock numbers [48] - The report mentions that several companies are actively developing new products, which may enhance growth prospects for the sector [48] Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have increased, with wheat and soybean meal rising by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively as of October 31 [52][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [52][56] Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.8% [57][60] - Domestic sales of pet food have continued to grow, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a contraction in breeding profits and a stabilization in planting, indicating a potential recovery in the agricultural sector [2] - The breeding sector is expected to benefit from policy and market forces driving capacity reduction, which will enhance long-term performance [3] - The planting sector is showing positive fundamentals with an upward trend in grain prices, presenting significant investment opportunities [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Breeding Sector - The pig breeding industry is experiencing a significant reduction in capacity, with current pig prices nearing 12 yuan/kg and a decline in weaned pig prices by approximately 150 yuan/head [8] - In Q3 2025, the revenue of listed pig companies reached 307.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%, while net profit was 21.929 billion yuan, up 11.36% [12] - The industry is facing a mid-term supply pressure, with inventory levels rising slightly to approximately 93.374 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in pig stocks [29] Feed and Veterinary Sectors - The feed sector is benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 215.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.17% [40] - The veterinary sector has shown significant growth, with revenue of 14.614 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 24.76% year-on-year, and net profit increasing by 98.94% [40] Planting Sector - The planting sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 70.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, with net profit rising by 62.05% [67] - The seed sector continues to face high inventory levels, impacting overall performance, with the average inventory turnover days reaching 318.68 days, the highest since Q1 2020 [67] Pet Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with domestic brands gaining recognition and market share, although competition is intensifying [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][44]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 1.1% from October 17 to October 30, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 3.08 percentage points [11]. - Among the sub-sectors, only planting and agricultural product processing recorded positive returns, increasing by 1.47% and 0.44% respectively, while fisheries, animal health, breeding, and feed sectors experienced negative returns, declining by 1.22%, 1.63%, 2.56%, and 4.24% respectively [14]. - The overall price of live pigs has rebounded, with the average price rising from 11.17 CNY/kg to 12.56 CNY/kg during the reporting period [23]. - The number of breeding sows as of the end of September 2025 was 40.35 million, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous month, indicating a potential for further capacity reduction [23]. - The report highlights the narrowing of losses in pig farming, with self-breeding losses at -89.33 CNY per head and purchased piglet losses at -179.72 CNY per head, showing improvement compared to the previous week [27]. - The average price of broiler chicks increased to 3.58 CNY per chick, while the average price of white feather broilers rose to 7.09 CNY/kg, indicating a slight recovery in poultry prices [29][32]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in leading companies within the industry, particularly in pig farming, poultry farming, feed production, animal health, and pet food sectors [44]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.1% from October 17 to October 30, 2025 [11]. - Only a few sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with planting and agricultural product processing increasing by 1.47% and 0.44% respectively [14]. - Over half of the stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [15]. Industry Key Data - The average price of live pigs increased from 11.17 CNY/kg to 12.56 CNY/kg [23]. - The breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million, slightly down by 0.07% [23]. - The average prices for corn and soybean meal showed slight declines, with corn at 2242.16 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3028 CNY/ton [25]. - Losses in pig farming narrowed, with self-breeding losses at -89.33 CNY per head [27]. Company Insights - The Q3 performance of pig and chicken farming companies showed a year-on-year decline in profitability due to lower prices compared to the previous year [35]. - Leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are highlighted for their market positions and potential for recovery [44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant inflow of funds into the livestock ETF (159865), indicating strong market interest in livestock assets [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of breeding sows at the end of September was 40.35 million, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.07% and a reduction of 90,000 heads compared to the end of Q2 [1] - Data from various sources indicates a consistent downward trend in pig prices, with a notable decrease in breeding sow inventory, suggesting a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers multiple sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing increased supply and demand for fat pigs, leading to a rise in pig prices, although breeding continues to incur losses [1] Industry Summary - Continuous supply expansion in the swine breeding industry is noted, with an increase in demand for fat pigs driving the entry of new breeders [1] - Policy guidance combined with supply pressure release may accelerate capacity reduction, as evidenced by a 0.33% month-on-month decrease in the number of breeding sows in September [1] ETF and Index Summary - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, breeding, animal vaccines, and veterinary drugs to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers the entire industry chain of livestock, providing a comprehensive view of market trends and development status in the sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," and "oscillating strongly" [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and suggests corresponding investment strategies [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Macro environment includes the US government "shutdown," Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical factors. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower than last year, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and palm oil and rapeseed oil have different inventory trends. - **Outlook**: Palm oil oscillates, rapeseed oil oscillates, and soybean oil oscillates strongly [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The Sino - US talks did not exceed expectations, the US soybean adjusted, and the domestic soybean meal was resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Internationally, the impact of Sino - US talks is over, and attention is paid to China's soybean purchases. Domestically, short - term downstream procurement interest is average, and long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. - **Outlook**: The US soybean is undergoing technical adjustment, and attention is paid to China's purchase volume. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread of soybean meal and the double - buy option [6]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The futures price dropped again, and continue to hold short positions for observation. - **Logic**: The recent price rebound was due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned warehouses. However, there are still downward drivers in the future, such as high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the stop - profit rhythm. Consider long - term low - absorption and near - far month reverse spread strategies [6][7]. 3.4. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: The second - fattening sentiment weakened, and hog prices declined. - **Logic**: In the short term, second - fattening utilization increased, but the price rebound inhibited sentiment. In the medium term, hog supply will increase in Q4. In the long term, sow capacity is being reduced, and supply pressure will ease in H2 2026. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The hog industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation," and pay attention to reverse spread strategy opportunities [1][2][7]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The willingness to sell increased, and rubber prices fell from high levels. - **Logic**: Macro factors no longer provided upward momentum, and the previous sharp rise increased the willingness to sell. The market is a bottom - up rebound rather than a reversal. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. There may be short - term upward space, but chasing long positions has risks [8][9]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Raw materials continued to weaken, and the futures price temporarily stabilized at a low level. - **Logic**: The BR futures price rebounded and then oscillated after hitting a new low. Due to the continuous decline of butadiene prices, there may be further downward space. - **Outlook**: There may be a bottom - up rebound, but there is a possibility of hitting new lows [10][11]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Macro - level benefits have been realized, and cotton prices have returned to the fundamental trading logic. - **Logic**: After the macro - level uncertainties are resolved, the market focuses on fundamentals. New cotton supply is increasing, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [11][12]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The expected reduction in imports supports sugar prices, but it is still bearish in the medium and long term. - **Logic**: Internationally, supply will increase in the new sugar - making season. Domestically, imports decreased in September, and the market expects a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports. - **Outlook**: The domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium and long term. Consider a rebound - short strategy [13][14]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is generally weak, and pulp futures are unlikely to rise significantly. - **Logic**: Fundamental data is bearish, and the futures price increase has not effectively driven up the spot price. There are issues such as weak demand and over - supply in the pulp market. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14][15]. 3.10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset paper oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: Supply pressure exists due to new production capacity, dealers have high inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the cost support from wood pulp is limited. - **Outlook**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to new driving factors [16]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Logs will maintain low - level oscillations in the short term. - **Logic**: Futures prices are weak due to concentrated port arrivals, low sales of integrated timber, and high blue - stain wood pressure in the future. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Speculative investors can wait and see or try to buy at low prices when it falls below 780 [17][18].

Group 1 - The agricultural and fishery ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 1.2% and a trading volume of 1.748 million yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 205 million yuan [1] - Key stocks such as Yike Food, Meihua Biological, and Luoniushan performed well with increases of 1.01%, 0.64%, and 0.56% respectively, while Jinhe Biological, Tiankang Biological, and Weilan Biological saw declines of 4.46%, 3.59%, and 3.29% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized the importance of solidifying key work during the 14th Five-Year Plan period to support the modernization of the fishery sector, highlighting the successful construction of the "Haiwei 2" breeding platform in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1] Group 2 - According to data from Tianfeng Securities, the supply of yellow chickens may contract, with demand being a core variable and production capacity at its lowest since 2018, suggesting that average prices in the second half of the year may outperform the first half [2] - The pig farming sector continues to experience losses, with policy guidance aimed at reducing production leading to ongoing capacity reduction [2] - The poultry industry faces challenges due to avian influenza, with a 21.78% year-on-year decline in the number of breeding stock, but a potential recovery in industry conditions is anticipated after three years of downturn [2]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock ETF (159865) has seen a net inflow of 210 million shares, indicating strong investor interest in livestock assets [1] Supply Side - In September, there was a concentrated release of live pig output, with an increase in both the scale and social market's output plans as temperatures cooled, leading to higher weights at slaughter [1] - The supply of pigs and the amount of meat available in the market have both increased, but post-October, supply-side pressures are expected to continue, putting significant downward pressure on pig prices [1] Demand Side - The demand side experienced a slight boost due to pre-holiday stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, along with cooler weather, although slaughter enterprises remain cautious [1] - The slow de-stocking of frozen products has limited the increase in fresh product consumption [1] - By mid-October, the second round of fattening is expected to accelerate at around 10 yuan/kg, providing slight support for short-term pig prices [1] Index Information - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a trend of reduced competition, compounded by the African swine fever outbreak, leading to increased capital inflows into the sector [1] - China Galaxy Securities predicts a year-on-year decline in average pig prices for 2025, with notable differences due to the optimization of production costs by leading pig companies, resulting in unexpected breeding profits [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 29, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows significant stock price increases for several companies: Weilan Bio (603739) up 10.00%, Meinong Bio (301156) up 6.73%, and Luoniushan (000735) up 4.83% [1] - The Livestock ETF (159867) has seen a mixed market performance, with the latest price at 0.66 yuan, and has experienced continuous capital inflows over the past 10 days, totaling 47.796 million yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The average pig price has fallen to the cash cost line, creating cash flow pressures for breeding entities, which may accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index, as of September 30, 2025, include Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), collectively accounting for 66.06% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% in the next 6 months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in pig prices, with significant downward trends observed in September 2025. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [16][19]. - The supply side indicates an increase in pig slaughtering due to cooler weather, leading to higher market supply and pressure on prices. However, demand was slightly boosted by holiday preparations, although overall consumption remained cautious [19][24]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing policy adjustments and the current low price environment will accelerate the reduction of production capacity, with a potential price rebound expected in the second half of 2026 [30][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The average price of live pigs has dropped to 10.90 CNY/kg as of October 20, 2025, following a consistent decline post the National Day holiday [16][19]. - The supply of pigs has increased due to higher slaughtering rates and larger weights, while demand has been limited by slow inventory turnover of frozen products [19][24]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.35 million, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [24][30]. - The report notes that the average profitability for self-bred pigs is -185.68 CNY per head, with external pig purchases resulting in a loss of -289.07 CNY per head, highlighting the increasing financial strain on producers [30][24]. Future Market Cycle Predictions - The report emphasizes that capacity regulation driven by policy will remain a central theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity and improved profitability for leading firms [30][24]. - The industry valuation has shown some recovery but remains below historical averages, suggesting a safety margin for investments in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and others [30][24].