投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 煤矿事故扰动，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：下游补库需求兑现后，国庆期间焦煤现货市场氛围转淡。供需方面，根据钢联统计， 截至 10 月 3 日当周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures closed with significant movements, particularly in the gold market, which saw a rise of over 4% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Live pigs and liquefied petroleum gas fell by over 5% [1] - Eggs decreased by over 4% [1] - Urea dropped by over 3% [1] - Soda ash and methanol declined by over 2% [1] - Shanghai gold, international copper, Shanghai copper, and palm oil increased by over 4% [1] - Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai silver rose by over 2% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 基本面边际走弱，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | | | 调整 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 成本支撑走弱，焦炭区间震荡运 | | | | | | | | 行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦 ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mixed on September 26, with red dates and silver rising over 2% [1] - LU fuel and rapeseed oil increased by more than 1%, while corn and peanuts saw slight gains [1] - Coke and coking coal dropped over 2%, with iron ore and rebar falling more than 1%, and cotton and live pigs experienced slight declines [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on market performance and fundamentals [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated after rising. The market speculated on the significant production cut of Freeport's Indonesian project, and the domestic association called for anti - involution, but the strong US economic data at night led to a pull - back. Downstream demand showed resilience after the price increase. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover. It is recommended to go long on dips as the inventory build - up rate of aluminum ingots slows down, and there is still an expectation of inventory draw - down after the holiday [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.20% compared to the previous trading day. The operating capacity of alumina plants continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The price of the alumina futures may rebound due to the strike in Guinea and the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry, but the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday morning, it opened higher and then fluctuated. The supply side saw a decrease of 1 furnace in the number of open furnaces this week compared to last week, and the social inventory remained flat. The demand side was supported by the high operating rate of polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: It opened higher on Thursday and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The fundamental situation is supply - strong and demand - weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity, and those with low risk appetite can consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the main contract [1][2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices fluctuated weakly. The strong US economic data at night strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing tin prices. The supply side has expectations of resuming and starting production of tin mines. The demand needs to be boosted. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3157 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and try the 10/5 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3120 - 3190 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 802.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1216 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for JM01 is 1170 - 1240 yuan/ton [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The US soybeans had a slight production cut, and South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The global inventory is expected to remain high. The US soybeans are weak and range - bound, and the domestic market is also expected to oscillate. The mid - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract of corn fluctuated narrowly. The spot price in North China rose while that in the Northeast fell. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has dropped significantly, suppressing the forward price. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5494 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production reached a new high, and the domestic import volume in August also reached a new high. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the price of US cotton futures stopped falling and oscillated. The international cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton cloth import increased. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and adopt a range - bound strategy between 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Log**: The 11 contract of log closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter. The overall inventory of major ports in the country decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply side in Malaysia is entering the seasonal production - cut period, and the demand side has an expected increase in exports in September. It is expected to enter a high - level oscillation, and later attention should be paid to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5][6]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. After the double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the egg price is expected to oscillate and weaken, and the futures are also expected to be weak [6]. - **Pig**: The 2511 contract of pigs rebounded, and the spot price fell. The supply is abundant, and the pig price before the festival is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to run weakly due to the loose supply [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract of LLDPE rebounded slightly. The supply pressure in the domestic market has increased but is slowing down, and the demand has improved in the downstream agricultural film season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [7]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4904 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1270 yuan/ton. The price rose driven by expectations. The supply - demand has little change, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [7][8]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract of PP rebounded slightly. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand has recovered in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Yesterday, oil prices rose again. The supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract around 500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract of EB oscillated slightly. The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading as the supply gradually recovers [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1300 yuan/ton. The inventory of soda ash continued to decline, and the price rose slightly. The supply side is expected to tighten, and it is recommended to go long [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh01 contract closed at 2529 yuan/ton. The purchase price of the main downstream of caustic soda decreased again. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread increases on September 25, with major contracts such as shipping European routes, international copper, and glass rising over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1468.33 points, up 13.64 points or 0.94% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping European route continued its upward trend, with the main contract closing up 3.99%, driven by good cargo collection and stable current cabin quotes [2] Group 2 - International copper and Shanghai copper futures opened higher, reaching a six-month high, with respective increases of 3.58% and 3.40% due to supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine [3] - The suspension of operations at Grasberg is expected to tighten global copper supply further, with forecasts indicating a continued decline in supply growth through 2026 [3] - Other commodities such as glass, rapeseed oil, and coke also saw significant price increases, with glass futures closing up 3.08% [3] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced slight adjustments, with Shanghai gold down 0.45% while silver saw a minor increase, influenced by profit-taking and a lack of new stimuli [4] - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain, including rising U.S. debt and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term fluctuations [4] - Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber contracts saw slight declines, with limited impact from weather disturbances, as the Southeast Asian production season is expected to increase output [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the energy - chemical sector have different trends. For example, some like PX and PTA are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium - term, while others such as rubber are expected to oscillate [4][12][13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound following crude oil, but medium - term weakness due to planned PTA factory production cuts and temporary plant shutdowns. Hold short positions and maintain reverse spreads [4][7][12]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound with geopolitical conflicts and oil price increase, medium - term weakness. 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. The market is waiting for pre - holiday restocking, but overall demand in the textile and beverage industries is weak [4][10][13]. - **MEG**: Follows raw material price rebounds. There are planned maintenance projects, but supply pressure remains high. Short positions and reverse spreads are advisable [4][11][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure in the domestic and Southeast Asian production areas has increased, and the demand side remains weak [4][15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4][19][21]. Asphalt - Asphalt is slightly stronger following crude oil. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has increased, and the shipment volume has also changed regionally. The trend strength is 1 [4][23][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The short - term commodity sentiment has improved, and the demand has gradually recovered. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term, and the inventory pressure is not significant [4][37][38]. PP - For PP, short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is still weak. The supply of maintenance has increased recently, and the price elasticity at low levels is low. Before the National Day, the market is rational, and short - selling should be cautious [4][41][42]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by the current weak situation, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The market may oscillate widely due to the intertwined long and short expectations [4][45][47]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market is in a sideways consolidation state, with low trading activity. The supply and demand have not changed significantly, and the market lacks clear direction [4][50][52]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market price has increased steadily, and the trading activity has increased significantly. The policy news has boosted the market, but the market price needs time to follow up [4][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price index has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased. The market is regionally and narrowly sorted, and attention should be paid to the import arrival and inventory situation [4][57][59]. Urea - Urea is expected to enter an oscillating pattern before the holiday. The inventory of urea enterprises has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, but the upside speculation space is limited. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and export policy information [4][62][64]. Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium term. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong. The port inventory may accumulate, and the supply pressure of pure benzene in the fourth quarter is high [4][65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is stable and oscillating. The production of the device has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is average. The market lacks driving factors [4][68][70]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Expected to oscillate in the short term. The futures price has increased slightly, and the inventory and spread data have changed. The PDH and other device operating rates have also changed [4][72][73]. - **Propylene**: Expected to be weak at high levels in the short term. The relevant futures price, inventory, spread, and device operating rate data have different degrees of change [4][73][77]. PVC - PVC is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market price has fluctuated slightly, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The supply side maintains high - level operation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [4][81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the price center continues to rebound. The futures and spot prices have increased [4][83]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Passively rises, and the high - and low - sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [4][83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The short - term fluctuations of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to increase. The futures price has increased, and the freight index has decreased. The future shipping capacity has dynamic adjustments [4][85].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong bias in the methanol market, with the 2601 contract expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend in the short term [5] - Current domestic and international methanol supply pressures remain high, while downstream demand is in a seasonal lull, leading to significant port inventory accumulation [5] - The methanol price has slightly increased by 0.64% to 2355 RMB/ton, reflecting a release of negative sentiment after previous price declines [5] Summary by Sections - **Short-term Outlook**: The methanol market is expected to experience oscillation with a strong bias, indicating a potential for price increases [5] - **Medium-term Outlook**: The medium-term perspective also suggests oscillation, with no significant changes anticipated [5] - **Daily Perspective**: The daily viewpoint indicates a strong oscillation, reinforcing the overall positive sentiment in the market [5] - **Market Dynamics**: The supply-demand structure is weak due to high supply pressures and low seasonal demand, which may lead to downward price adjustments [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures opened with more gains than losses, indicating a positive market sentiment in early trading [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Fuel oil increased by approximately 4%, reflecting strong demand or supply constraints [1] - Crude oil and coking coal rose by over 1%, suggesting a potential upward trend in energy prices [1] - Cotton yarn and starch saw slight increases, indicating stable demand in these sectors [1] Group 2: Declines in Certain Commodities - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal dropped by more than 1%, which may indicate weakening demand or oversupply [1] - Soda ash and paper pulp experienced slight declines, reflecting potential challenges in these markets [1]