③关注加拿大央行对美国与欧盟、美国与日本等国家签订的贸易协议的看法。 ④关注加拿大央行通胀、经济、就业、油价、汇率等的看法。 ①市场普遍预计加拿大央行将维持利率于2.75%不变。 ②关注加拿大央行对未来降息可能性的暗示。 注：北京时间21:45，加拿大央行将公布利率决议。 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the results of the Q2 2025 survey indicating that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3][4] Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, with values of 49.3% and 53.2% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [3] - 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [3] - The survey revealed that 32.5% of entrepreneurs expect to "increase profits or reduce losses," an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Banker Insights - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 was 33.2%, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [4] - 50% of bankers rated the monetary policy as loose, with a monetary policy sentiment index of 74.6%, which is high [4] - The banker’s expectation for the macroeconomic heat index for Q3 is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to Q2 [4] Group 3: Resident Insights - In a survey of urban residents, 69.7% reported that their income remained stable in Q2, with a cautious outlook on employment [5] - 51.5% of residents perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards job security [5] - 32.1% of residents plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent college admission scores in China indicate a shift in the higher education landscape, with new universities like Southern University of Science and Technology and Shenzhen Polytechnic surpassing traditional "Double First Class" universities in admission scores, particularly in physics and technology-related fields [1][2]. Group 1: Admission Scores and Trends - The highest admission score for physics in Guangdong Province reached 617, exceeding the special control line by 83 points, while the lowest score was 566 [1]. - Shenzhen Information Polytechnic University, newly upgraded to a vocational university, has set a total enrollment plan of 300 students across five undergraduate programs, each with a planned enrollment of 60 students [2][3]. - Comparatively, traditional "Double First Class" universities like South China Agricultural University still maintain higher admission scores in certain fields, indicating a competitive landscape [4]. Group 2: Employment and Industry Trends - The emphasis on employment outcomes has become a primary concern for students when selecting majors, with fields like computer science and engineering seeing increased interest due to their perceived job security [6][27]. - The total number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to reach 12.22 million, intensifying competition in the job market [27]. - There is a significant mismatch between the skills taught in universities and the demands of the job market, leading to challenges for graduates in securing suitable employment [37][38]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends show that popular majors often fluctuate based on economic conditions and industry demands, with a notable shift in the popularity of fields like construction and finance over the years [20][23]. - The current educational landscape reflects a need for universities to adapt their curricula to align more closely with industry needs, particularly in fast-evolving fields like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [10][23][50]. - The ongoing changes in the job market and educational requirements suggest that students must navigate a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges as they prepare for their futures [54][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1] - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [3] - The banker macroeconomic heat index decreased to 33.2%, with 61.9% of bankers considering the macroeconomic performance normal [4] Group 2: Price and Production Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to show a year-on-year decline, with a significant percentage of entrepreneurs reporting stable product sales and raw material prices compared to the previous quarter [3] - The overall demand for loans has decreased, reflecting a cautious outlook in the banking sector [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - In a survey of urban residents, nearly 70% reported that their income remained unchanged in the second quarter, with a cautious outlook on employment [6] - The majority of residents expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter, indicating a lack of inflationary pressure [6] - The top spending priority for residents in the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive trends in employment and job creation in China, with 6.95 million new urban jobs added in the first half of the year, achieving 58% of the annual target [1] - The urban survey unemployment rate has steadily declined, reaching 5% in June, with an average of 5.2% from January to June, which is below the regulatory target [1] - Employment support policies have accelerated, with enhanced support for key groups, improved vocational training effectiveness, and increased public employment services [1] Group 2 - The government has intensified efforts to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting enterprises, developing job opportunities, optimizing services, enhancing training, and reinforcing safety nets [2] - Financial support for small and micro enterprises has been increased, with the maximum credit limit raised to 500 million yuan, and unemployment insurance rate reductions saving companies over 90 billion yuan [2] - The demand for talent in traditional service industries has increased by over 10% compared to the first quarter, while high-end manufacturing sectors like humanoid robotics have seen a staggering 398.1% year-on-year increase in job postings [3] Group 3 - Local human resources departments are actively conducting employment service campaigns to assist unemployed graduates and youth [4] - Job fairs are being organized to provide practical experience and job guidance for graduates, addressing the mismatch between graduates' skills and market demand [4] - Nationwide recruitment activities have provided over 4.58 million job opportunities, with 8,900 recruitment events held [4] Group 4 - The Ministry of Human Resources has established a real-name ledger for unemployed graduates, offering multiple support services including policy guidance and job recommendations [5] - Shanghai's "Youth Internship Program" has successfully placed 18,000 young individuals in internships, with over 60% securing employment afterward [6] - The government is promoting large-scale vocational skills training to enhance labor skills and meet the demands of an evolving economy [7] Group 5 - The focus of vocational training will be on advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and other key sectors, with a commitment to high-quality training until the end of 2027 [7] - Companies are encouraged to adapt their talent structures to align with industry demands, while job seekers are advised to enhance their skills to leverage emerging industry opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies, indicating a significant "hawk-dove" debate [1][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan's strong stance suggests that the current interest rate level of 4.25% may persist for 6 to 12 months, providing theoretical support for high interest rate policies despite a slight decline in inflation data [1][5] - Political pressure is mounting as President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell and calls for immediate interest rate cuts, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process [1][3] Group 2 - The global trade landscape is volatile, with the Trump administration imposing high tariffs on several countries, while simultaneously lifting tariffs on China, leading to unpredictable market reactions [3][5] - Employment data shows a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, but private sector job growth nearly stagnant when excluding certain sectors [5][7] - Market indicators are fluctuating, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 75% to 54.4%, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [5][7] Group 3 - Gold prices are hovering around $3,330, while the dollar index has fallen below 97, marking a new low since February 2022, indicating shifts in investor sentiment [7] - The stock market is reacting unevenly, with the Nasdaq reaching a historical high while the Dow Jones experienced a significant drop of 436 points, showcasing the divergent performance of technology stocks [7] - Economists at the New York Fed are analyzing the complexities of the Fed's June meeting minutes to navigate the challenges of inflation, employment, and economic resilience [7][5]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF emphasizes the need for policymakers to focus on addressing trade tensions and implementing macroeconomic policies to tackle potential domestic imbalances in the face of ongoing downside risks and high uncertainty [1] Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Policymakers should restore fiscal space and ensure that debt remains at sustainable levels to maintain economic stability [1] - Monetary policy must be carefully adjusted according to each country's specific circumstances, with clear and consistent communication [1] - The independence of central banks must be protected to ensure effective monetary policy [1] Group 2: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are crucial for enhancing productivity, supporting job creation, and leveraging new technologies to promote medium-term growth [1] - These reforms are also essential for offsetting demographic changes [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, including policy announcements, economic data, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show varying trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][6]. - For stocks, the market may experience style rotations, and it is advisable to go long on IF stock index futures at dips. For bonds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips. For precious metals, silver is favored for long - positions due to the expected weakening of the Fed's independence. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals face different supply - demand situations, with some expected to be under pressure and others to be in a volatile state. In the energy and chemical sector, each product has its own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly. In the agricultural products sector, different products also present different investment opportunities based on factors such as supply, demand, and policy [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: The State Council meeting discussed key policies for the domestic market and the new energy vehicle industry. The national power load hit a new high. Huang Renxun predicted the development of AI in the robot system. US PPI and inflation data were released, and Ethereum prices rose [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH showed different basis ratios. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs and the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures at dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: TL, T, and TF contracts declined slightly, while the TS contract rose slightly on Wednesday. - **News**: US CPI data was released, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September is high. The US - China tariff truce deadline is flexible. - **Strategy**: The economy showed resilience in Q2, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank's actions indicate a loose money - supply attitude, and it is recommended to enter the bond market at dips [4][6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The "removal - of - Fed - chair" incident supported precious metal prices. The weakening of the Fed's independence is expected to drive precious metal prices higher, and it is recommended to go long on silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper prices fell, and Shanghai copper prices were stable. LME copper inventory increased, and the cancellation warrant ratio decreased. - **Outlook**: Trump's tariff on copper may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, and copper prices are expected to be under pressure and trade in a weak - volatile range [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum prices fell, and Shanghai aluminum prices were stable. Shanghai aluminum contract positions decreased, and LME aluminum inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity market is positive, but aluminum has inventory accumulation pressure due to factors such as low - level processing fees and weak downstream demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, they are expected to be volatile due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and the photovoltaic industry [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME lead prices fell. Lead supply is relatively loose, and social inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to a slight oversupply in the lead market [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices fell on Wednesday. A fire incident had limited impact on supply. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices were weak on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: Supply is short, and demand is weak. Due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is unfavorable, and it is recommended to pay attention to news and market sentiment [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. - **Outlook**: The long - term over - capacity situation remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall market sentiment [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures contract price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the off - season, and prices are expected to face resistance due to factors such as aluminum price pressure and large futures - spot price differences [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: The market is affected by the Central Urban Work Conference. The current fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and demand recovery [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is slightly weak, and iron - ore prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price fell slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, inventory increased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. - **Outlook**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but the short - term market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to be rational and consider hedging for the industry [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rose and then fluctuated slightly. - **Outlook**: There are different views on the market. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - term and neutral - to - bullish in the short - term [36][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of high - reality and low - expectation. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [41]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [43]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, and the futures price rose. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost - side [44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG futures price rose, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The short - term is expected to be strong, but the long - term fundamentals are weak [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX futures price rose, and the CFR price fell. - **Outlook**: The short - term valuation is compressed, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile due to factors such as trade policy and seasonal demand [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July due to weak supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Pig prices fell. - **Outlook**: Short - term long - positions may be profitable, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Egg prices were stable or rose. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short - sell [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: US soybeans rebounded, and domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait for new supply - side drivers [56][58]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data and Indian vegetable oil import data were released. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as production and policy [59][61]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak and volatile. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [64].