会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者对通胀、就业、特朗普政府的关 税政策影响均未有一致看法，主流观点是，相比就业，通胀的风险更让人担心。从这个角度看，本次纪 要偏鹰派。 截至7月30日的会上，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC再次决定按兵不动，但会后决议显示，两名理事 ——被传为下任美联储主席热门人选的沃勒和"特朗普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼因主张立即降 息投了反对票。这是三十多年首次出现如此多的联储理事对利率决议持异议。 美东时间8月20日周三公布的会议纪要也显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反 对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认 为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 经济方面，一些人预计美国经济活动将保持稳健，还有些人预计下半年将延续上半年的低增长。 此外，美联储官员普遍认为需要监控一些金融市场存在的脆弱性，一些人表达了对美国国债市场脆弱性 的担忧，还有人指出银行和外汇掉期方面的担忧。多人讨论了最近出台稳定币法案后此类数字资产的影 响，与会者认为，应高度关注其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with a majority of decision-makers believing that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, while some view the risks as balanced, and a couple emphasize employment risks more prominently [1][4][6]. Economic Outlook - Some participants expect the U.S. economic activity to remain robust, while others predict a continuation of low growth in the second half of the year [3]. Inflation and Employment Risks - A majority of participants express concern over inflation risks compared to employment risks, with discussions indicating that the uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high [6][4]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is still slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with many participants noting that the effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [7][10]. Tariff Impact on Inflation - Many participants believe that the full impact of tariffs may take time to manifest in consumer prices, with some indicating that domestic companies and consumers bear most of the tariff costs [8][9]. - There is a divergence of opinions regarding whether tariff increases will lead to a one-time price spike or sustained inflation, with some emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable long-term inflation expectations [10][11]. Financial Market Vulnerabilities - Participants express concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial markets, particularly regarding the U.S. Treasury market and the potential impact of stablecoins on the financial system and monetary policy [5][14]. - The discussion includes worries about high asset valuations and the ability of market makers to act as intermediaries, as well as risks associated with foreign exchange swaps [14][15]. Stablecoins and Monetary Policy - The recent developments in stablecoin legislation are expected to increase their usage, potentially enhancing payment system efficiency and raising demand for supporting assets like U.S. Treasuries [15]. - Participants emphasize the need for close monitoring of the implications of stablecoins on the banking system and overall financial stability [15].

Group 1 - Marc Sumerlin, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for a significant interest rate cut next month, warning that rising long-term Treasury yields could halt this action [1][2] - Sumerlin identifies the real estate sector as the weakest link in the current market, emphasizing the need to prevent long-term interest rates from rising [1] - He notes that the Federal Reserve has a 50 basis point room for a rate cut based on the current yield curve, with the target range for the overnight rate at 4.25%-4.5% and the six-month Treasury yield at 3.94% [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has increased due to disappointing employment reports, with market pricing indicating over a 90% chance of a cut next month [2] - Sumerlin has been mentioned as a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May next year, having previously served as an economic policy advisor under President George W. Bush [2]

特朗普近期频繁与经济学界围绕就业、通胀和关税相关数据及研判发生冲突。本月初，特朗普因劳工统 计局最新发布的就业数据显著弱于市场预期而解雇劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗。 《华尔街日报》注意到，被特朗普针对的哈丘斯曾因2008年准确预测次级抵押贷款违约潮可能导致严重 经济衰退而闻名。他关于美国当前关税政策将削弱就业和经济增长前景、推高通胀的观点得到众多经济 学家认同。 另据《财富》杂志援引世界大型企业联合会最新报告，针对第三季度美国企业负责人的信心调查显示， 64%的企业首席执行官确信关税带来的价格上涨将会转嫁给消费者。 新华社华盛顿8月13日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本 中越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普12日针对这一观点发文表示，高盛经济学家"应该换人"，集团首席 执行官应该改行做"打碟师（DJ）"。 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至6月美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业转嫁关 税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预 ...

Employment Stability and Economic Growth - Employment is viewed as a "barometer" of economic development and a "ballast" for social stability, with the national urban survey unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first half of the year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating overall stability in employment [1] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supporting improvements in employment, with unemployment rates dropping to 5.1% and 5% in April and May respectively, and stabilizing at 5% in June [3] Industry-Specific Employment Trends - The optical products company in Jingzhou, Hubei, has added approximately 500 employees this year, marking its largest recruitment year, driven by strong demand for prism products in the consumer electronics sector [2] - In the second quarter, recruitment in industries such as humanoid robots, new materials, and smart hardware saw year-on-year increases of 398.1%, 72.1%, and 50.3% respectively, with several other sectors also experiencing significant growth [3] Support for Employment Initiatives - Various local governments are implementing employment-first policies and enhancing employment promotion mechanisms to support job stability and growth, with companies benefiting from social security and job subsidies totaling 648,000 yuan [3] - The government has introduced a series of policies to support employment, including expanding the scope of special loans for job stabilization and increasing the unemployment insurance return ratio for relevant enterprises [9] Focus on Youth Employment - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to reach a record high of 12.22 million, prompting local governments to prioritize employment services for this demographic [5] - Educational institutions are actively organizing online recruitment events and implementing training programs to enhance graduates' employability, with a focus on aligning skills with industry needs [6][11] Skills Training and Development - A significant push for skills training is underway, with plans to subsidize vocational skills training for over 10 million people annually in key sectors such as advanced manufacturing and modern services [11] - Companies are increasingly recognizing their social responsibility by providing job opportunities for disadvantaged groups, supported by government incentives that enhance their capacity to hire more employees [4]

一边是增长疲弱和失业率上升，另一边是显著高于目标的通胀，英国央行面临两难抉择。 当地时间7日（周四），英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%。这是英国央行本轮降息周期开 启以来第五次降息，英国利率已降至两年多来最低水平。 决议公布后，英镑对美元短线拉升约40点至1.3409，英国两年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至3.892%， 英国富时100指数维持跌势，下跌0.71%。 此次降息符合此前金融市场预期。分析人士指出，英国央行意在应对经济放缓和就业转弱的压力，同时 继续监控仍高于目标的通胀水平，在支持增长与抑制通胀之间寻求微妙平衡。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，GTC集团首席分析师贾米尔·艾哈迈德（Jameel Ahmad）表示，尽管英国 通胀回升至3.6%，远高于英国央行长期设定的2%目标，但英国央行本月降息其实并不令人意外，由于 全球因素和国内情绪，英国经济动能持续显现疲软迹象。 连投两次，是什么让MPC分裂 此次议息会议出现了"三方分歧"的投票局面，有报道称这也是英国央行货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee，MPC）史上首次被迫进行两次投票。MPC有9名委员，针对利率决 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is increasingly leaning towards interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September approaching 100% probability [1][2][3] - Recent economic data, particularly the weak non-farm payrolls report for July, has weakened the narrative of a robust economy, prompting a shift in the Fed's stance [2][3] - The internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become more apparent, with two dissenting votes in the July meeting marking a significant shift in the committee's dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. economy's underlying strength are growing, with signs of a weakening labor market and slowing consumer spending, particularly in the manufacturing and service sectors [3][4] - The upcoming inflation and employment data releases will be critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts [4][8] - Market sentiment is heavily leaning towards the expectation of rate cuts, with discussions even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction [4][9] Group 3 - The stock market has reacted positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with major indices rebounding over 1% [5] - However, there are concerns that the stock market may be entering a bubble territory, with warnings about potential overvaluation and cautious behavior from corporate executives [6][7] - The risk of a recession looms, as indicators suggest a weakening economy, which could negatively impact the stock market despite the favorable conditions created by potential rate cuts [7][10] Group 4 - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is becoming increasingly challenging, as inflation pressures and labor market weaknesses coexist [8][9] - The Fed's current approach is to prioritize avoiding significant policy missteps over precise timing of actions, indicating a cautious and reactive stance [11]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump will participate in a live interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss key economic issues, which may lead to market volatility [1] Group 1 - The interview is scheduled for 20:00 Beijing time [1] - Topics of discussion will include the economy, employment, the Federal Reserve, and tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The interview with President Trump on CNBC's "Squawk Box" will cover topics such as the economy, employment, the Federal Reserve, and tariffs [1]

周一（8月4日）现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3357美元/盎司附近，在当前的市场格局中，美元出现反弹态势，对黄金价格形成了 明显的压制作用； 现在盘面上来看，在非农数据影响下，金价拉涨以后的力度明显不足，现在虽然是在高位交投，但是很明显有回落的需求，欧盘的 主要关注点就是早盘下探的低点3345能否下破，若这个短期支撑失守，那么后市（至少是到周三美盘）我们的策略都是等待反弹去 布局空单为主。下方支撑还是延续上周五分析中3330与3306的两个位置附近，短期支撑是早盘的3345这里，有效下破才能持续下 看；上方阻力位可关注今日开盘走高3368的位置，其次是3374上周五分析的地方； 具体操作思路：有参考上周五的3363做空的可看3345位置能否下破；空仓的可等待3363附近再去布空看跌，保护3374，目标下看 3345附近；短线方面是建议在45附近止盈，有破位动作后等待金价反弹3352附近再介入空单下看，中线可减半仓看持续看金价向下 运行是否能到3330位置后去看阶梯目标。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球 稳健的交易系统在这里，对 ...