周二（1月13日），A股放量调整，成交额超3.6万亿元创新高。AI赛道呈现分化行情，创业板人工智能新高后下挫明显。以GEO为代表的AI应用逆市大涨， 易点天下收涨超10%，中文在线、万兴科技大涨超5%；以光模块、IDC为核心的算力赛道则陷入调整，金信诺、光库科技领跌超10%，天孚通信跌超6%， 润泽科技下跌3%。 热门ETF方面，双线布局"AI应用+算力"的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内高开低走，上探新高后持续调整收跌3.64%，单日放量成交14.5亿元，继前一 日加仓近4亿元后，资金再度净流入超3亿元，两日合计吸金7亿元，吸金力度居创业板人工智能赛道第一！ 【迎流动性活水！159363入选互联互通标的】 2026年1月9日，港交所公告显示，北向深股通共有44只ETF调入，全市场首只跟踪创业板人工智能的ETF——创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）正式纳入 互联互通标的，生效日期为1月19日，此次入选互联互通名单，有望引入北向资金"新鲜活水"，或可进一步提升其场内流动性及交易活跃度。 数据显示，截至1月12日，创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）最新规模为47.31亿元，近6个月日均成交额超 ...

方正证券认为，1)火电：2025年多地长协电价承压下行已获高层关注，随着广东等多地出台批零价差约 束等政策组合拳以遏制非理性竞争，以及2026年起容量电价补偿比例普遍上调，电价单边下行的最大利 空正逐步出清。2)水电：盈利韧性与成本改善，凸显高股息稀缺价值。2025年我国水电发电量企稳回 升，特别是9—10月单月同比增幅近30%，呈现边际好转。展望未来，随着存量机组折旧陆续到期及财 务费用减少，水电公司盈利能力有望进一步提升。3)核电：尽管受市场化交易电量增长以及年度长协电 价下滑影响，核电公司的上网电价或有所降低，且核电税收优惠有所调整，对未来新投产核电机组或形 成一定压力，但考虑到近年来我国核电核准节奏稳健，新机组投运带来的发电量提升有望在一定程度上 实现以量补价。 华西证券（002926）认为，电力系统作为算力发展的基石，其价值和生态有望获得重塑。AI技术迭代 和AI应用加速渗透带动算力需求激增，推动人工智能数据中心(AIDC)大规模建设。本轮AI产业趋势主 升浪将从两大需求(发电量需求增长、供电质量要求提升)和三大端侧(发电侧、电网侧和用户侧)对电力 系统价值和生态带来重塑。1)发电侧：数据中心规模化 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing office market shows strong resilience with a significant reduction in new supply and continuous net absorption leading to a decline in vacancy rates over four consecutive quarters [1][2] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In 2025, the total new supply of office space in Beijing was only 180,000 square meters, the lowest since 2015, with a net absorption of 438,000 square meters, resulting in a year-on-year vacancy rate decrease of 1.9 percentage points to 19.1% [1][2] - Demand was primarily driven by relocation and upgrades, with relocation demand accounting for 76% of the market, mainly from tenants in lower-grade office buildings seeking to upgrade to higher-quality spaces [2][3] - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecom) sector remained the largest source of demand, contributing 36% to the total leasing transactions, with significant activity in segments like AI and cloud computing [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - There is a notable regional differentiation in market performance, with tech hubs like Zhongguancun and Wangjing driving net absorption, while traditional business districts like CBD and Financial Street face significant challenges [3][4] - The average rental price in Beijing decreased by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter to 228.5 yuan per square meter by the end of 2025, marking a cumulative annual decline of 10.7%, making Beijing the city with the largest rental decline in the country [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - A small supply peak is expected in 2026, with nearly 530,000 square meters of high-quality projects anticipated to enter the market, posing challenges for existing tenants [5] - The competition is expected to shift from price-based to value-based, emphasizing the need for property owners to focus on tenant stability and growth through tailored solutions [5]

Group 1 - The current spring market rally in the technology sector has shown internal differentiation, with traditional themes like computing power, PCB, and CPO underperforming compared to satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, and brain-computer interfaces [1] - As of Q3 2025, the top three sectors in fund holdings are electronics (26%), electric new energy (12%), and pharmaceuticals (10%), collectively accounting for 48% of total holdings, making it challenging to sustain significant excess returns [1] - The influx of new capital has been primarily driven by substantial inflows into A500 ETF, which has spread to margin trading, small orders, and private equity, indicating a trading-oriented capital structure [1] Group 2 - Current non-consensus themes to watch include opportunities in non-ferrous metals, brain-computer interfaces, semiconductors, robotics, AI applications, and insurance [2] - The trading heat in popular sectors is not overly heated, with significant ETF inflows and high earnings growth expectations for the respective industries [3] Group 3 - TMTG plans to start construction of the world's largest commercial fusion power plant in 2026, aiming for a capacity of 50MW initially and a long-term goal of 350-500MW, with the first power generation targeted for 2031 [4] - The fusion industry is experiencing a resonance of "policy, industry, and capital," with strong policy support as fusion is included in China's 14th Five-Year Plan and recognized as a core future industry [4] - Various technological paths, including stellarators and Z-pinch, are receiving capital investment, with companies like Helical Fusion signing power purchase agreements and domestic startups completing significant financing rounds [5] Group 4 - Investment opportunities in the fusion industry are expected to concentrate on midstream equipment and upstream materials, including magnets, power supplies, and heating systems as engineering logic strengthens [6]

Core Viewpoint - The big data ETF Huabao (516700) is gaining attention due to its focus on computing power and AI applications, reflecting strong market interest in AIDC (AI Data Centers) as a promising investment area [1][2]. Market Performance - Huabao (516700) experienced a daily inflow of 7.56 million yuan, indicating investor confidence in the future performance of AIDC [2]. - The ETF reached a new high with a price increase of over 3.7% before experiencing a correction, showing a volatility of 8.53% [1]. AIDC Sector Insights - AIDC is viewed as a high-certainty infrastructure sector in the AI era, driven by five key factors: explosive demand, supply shortages, policy support, technological iteration, and business model upgrades [4]. - Demand is surging due to exponential growth in computing power needs for AI model training and inference [4]. - Supply is constrained, with a projected shortage of GPUs and AI servers expected to last 2-3 years [4]. - Government policies are increasingly supportive, with initiatives to accelerate computing infrastructure development and financial subsidies for AIDC construction [4]. - Technological advancements are enhancing the local computing node advantages of AIDC, expanding market opportunities [4]. - The business model is characterized by high barriers to entry and long-term contracts, ensuring stable cash flow and profitability [5]. ETF Composition - By the end of 2025, the index tracked by Huabao (516700) will have a weight of 40.91% in computing power concepts and 37.43% in AI application concepts [6]. Industry Trends - The focus on domestic computing power and AI applications aligns with national strategies for technological independence and digital productivity enhancement [7][8]. - The ongoing trend towards domestic substitution is expected to accelerate, particularly in the context of the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative, which aims to promote self-sufficiency in technology [8].

Core Insights - The technology sector in China has shown remarkable performance, with the communication and electronics industries rising by 84.75% and 47.88% respectively in 2025, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 17.66% [1][7] - The technology sector remains a focal point for 2026, with institutions suggesting that investors should focus on well-rounded "big tech players" as the market experiences increased volatility [1][7] Investment Strategy - The investment approach of the fund manager, Nong Bingli, emphasizes understanding industry trends rather than merely chasing short-term high-growth opportunities. This strategy involves identifying companies with non-linear growth potential across various emerging industries, including technology [3][9] - Nong Bingli has demonstrated strong performance in his fund management, with the fund "Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen A" achieving a net value growth rate of 63.29% over the past year, significantly outperforming its benchmark [3][9][10] Focus Areas - The fund manager is particularly focused on sectors such as computing power, consumer electronics, the internet, and new consumption trends. This includes a strong emphasis on companies that are innovating in hardware and AI applications [4][10] - The investment strategy for the newly launched fund "Invesco Great Wall Growth Preferred" allows for a diversified approach across A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing the potential for identifying unique investment opportunities [5][11] Future Outlook - Nong Bingli maintains an optimistic outlook for the equity market in 2026, citing stable growth logic driven by industry trends, macroeconomic policies, and company performance. The focus will be on sectors with clear profit growth potential [5][10] - The fund's fee structure is designed to align the interests of the fund manager and investors, with performance-based fees that incentivize long-term holding [12]

Core Viewpoint - The AI sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with applications remaining active while the computing power segment faces adjustments. The market is transitioning into a new phase where AI applications are becoming the primary focus for investment opportunities [1][2][5]. AI Applications - AI downstream applications are accelerating into the commercialization verification stage, with significant developments in both domestic and international markets. Companies like xAI and Anthropic have completed financing, and policies promoting "AI + manufacturing" are being implemented in China. The upcoming release of DeepSeek-V4 is expected to spark a new wave of AI application enthusiasm [2][9]. - The AI application index has seen a cumulative increase of over 12% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the communication equipment index, indicating a strong market sentiment towards AI applications [10]. Computing Power - Major domestic companies, including ByteDance, are significantly increasing their capital expenditure plans, leading to marginal improvements in chip supply. This, combined with the continuous iteration of domestic large models, is driving a resurgence in data center bidding activities. The IDC sector is currently positioned at a valuation low, presenting an investment window for recovery and performance realization [10]. - The current price of the AI application ETF (159363) closed at 1.127 yuan, approaching the pre-rights issue closing price of 1.191 yuan, suggesting a potential "fill rights" market trend reflecting high industry sentiment [10]. Investment Products - The AI application ETF (159363) is structured to benefit directly from the commercial explosion of AI technology, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to computing power and 40% to AI applications. This ETF represents a core investment in both computing power and AI applications [5][12]. - The ETF has seen significant trading activity, with a real-time transaction volume exceeding 800 million yuan and a net subscription of 130 million units, indicating strong investor interest [1][2]. Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' research indicates that AI will remain a key investment theme in the market through 2026, reinforcing the importance of AI applications in future investment strategies [4][9].

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market experienced significant growth in 2025, with total trading volume reaching 90.74 billion contracts and total trading value at 766.25 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [1][2][11] Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a trading value of 90.81 trillion yuan, representing substantial year-on-year growth of 45.17% and 58.55% [1][11] - The trading volume in December 2025 increased by 23.55% compared to November, while the trading value surged by 36.32% [1][11] - The total open interest at the end of December 2025 was 45.24 million contracts, showing a month-on-month decline of 16.3% but a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [1][11] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - The financial futures and options sector saw a remarkable year-on-year increase in trading volume and value of 94% and 33.66%, respectively, with volumes exceeding 300 million contracts and values surpassing 255 trillion yuan [2][11] - The non-ferrous metals and new energy metals sector experienced a trading volume increase of 64.11% and a value increase of 30.38%, with volumes exceeding 1 billion contracts and values surpassing 93 trillion yuan [4][12] - The precious metals sector, driven by new price highs for gold and silver futures, saw trading volume and value grow by 15.51% and 81.97%, respectively, with volumes exceeding 600 million contracts and values surpassing 146 trillion yuan [5][15] - The energy and chemical sectors exhibited strong trading activity, with energy trading volume increasing by 64.1% and value by 28.5%, while the chemical sector saw volume growth of 27.5% and value growth of 16.1% [9][16] - The black metals and building materials sector benefited from favorable policies, with overall trading volume increasing by nearly 11.2% [9][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - Projections for 2026 indicate that the national futures market is expected to continue its upward trend, with trading volume anticipated to reach between 95 billion and 100 billion contracts and trading value expected to exceed 800 trillion yuan [9][16]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in AI-related listings, with several companies, including domestic GPU leaders, making their debut in early January 2026 [1][4] - MiniMax, a notable AI company, achieved a record for the fastest IPO from establishment to listing, completing this process in just four years [1][3] - On its first trading day, MiniMax's stock price increased by 109%, reaching a market capitalization of over 100 billion HKD [1][3] Group 2 - MiniMax has completed seven rounds of financing before its IPO, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and Sequoia Capital, leading to a valuation exceeding 4.2 billion USD [3] - MiHoYo, a gaming giant, is a key investor in MiniMax, holding approximately 6.4% of its shares and utilizing MiniMax's AI models in game development [3][4] - Wall Street's interest in AI companies is reflected in the strategic investments made by gaming firms, which are transitioning from being mere consumers of computing power to active participants in the AI technology space [10][11] Group 3 - Wall Street's investment in AI companies is yielding substantial returns, as evidenced by Century Huatong's indirect investment in Moole Thread, which is expected to significantly impact its net profit [13] - The gaming industry is undergoing a transformation due to generative AI technology, which is reshaping product development and user experience [10][11] - Companies like 游族网络 (Youzu Interactive) are strategically investing in AI chip firms like 壁仞科技 (Birran Technology) and曦望 (Sunrise) to enhance their competitive edge in the AI computing landscape [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Electric Light Technology reveals a dual narrative: a stable traditional business and a potential aggressive transformation towards AI and computing services, despite a modest profit growth of 1.34% [2][18][26] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is 68.09 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.34% year-on-year, indicating stable but slow growth in the traditional coal mining sector [18][20] - The cash flow from operating activities reached 729.7 million yuan, up 6.39% year-on-year, suggesting good market acceptance and healthy cash circulation for the business [21] - The company's inventory has surged to 356 million yuan, a 26.34% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high, which may indicate preparation for future projects rather than unsold products [23] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Electric Light Technology has signed a significant computing service contract worth 553.5 million yuan with Shanghai Wunuan Xinqiong, utilizing a favorable prepayment model that enhances cash flow and reduces bad debt risk [24] - The company has established a joint venture with Zhejiang Yungu to create a computing center and data center, indicating a strategic move into the big data and AI service market [24] - The application of AI technology in products such as high-voltage switches and the development of mining inspection robots highlight the company's transition towards becoming a provider of AI solutions [24] Group 3: Profitability and Risks - The sales gross margin stands at 38.56%, indicating a strong position in terms of product value and pricing power, which supports the transition to higher-value computing and AI services [25] - A significant increase in short-term borrowings to 388 million yuan, up 92.36% year-on-year, raises concerns about liquidity as cash reserves are only 407 million yuan, indicating potential financial risk [25]