Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no explicit report on the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index is expected to rise in the long - term and show a short - term range - bound pattern. For IH2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and the overall view is "rise". For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a bullish bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "rise" [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "rise", the intraday is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and the overall view is "rise". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1615.8 billion yuan, an increase of 97.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits, so the index has a technical consolidation need in the short - term. However, currently, external risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, negative drivers are weak, and the risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level. The trading volume of the stock market is above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a positive and optimistic market sentiment [5].

Group 1 - The article presents mixed views from eight institutions regarding stock index futures, with three bullish, two bearish, and three expecting volatility [1] - Bullish factors include the nationwide opening of childcare subsidy applications by August 31, the World Artificial Intelligence Conference boosting tech sector sentiment, a net liquidity injection of 49 billion from the central bank, and the extension of tariff relief between China and the U.S. [1] - Bearish factors consist of the Politburo meeting lacking new policies exceeding market expectations, a slight decrease in the average daily trading volume of A-shares to 1.8099 trillion, the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates for the fifth consecutive time in July, a reduction of 1.9 billion shares in the CSI 300 ETF this week, and a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 49.3% in July [1]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is mixed with differing views from eight institutions, where three are bullish, two are bearish, and three expect a volatile market [1] - Bullish factors include the nationwide opening of childcare subsidy applications by August 31, the World Artificial Intelligence Conference boosting tech sector sentiment, a net liquidity injection of 49 billion from the central bank, and the extension of tariff relief between China and the US [1] - Bearish factors consist of the Politburo meeting lacking any new policies that exceed market expectations, a slight decrease in the average daily trading volume of A-shares to 1.8099 trillion, the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance for the fifth consecutive meeting, a reduction of 1.9 billion shares in the CSI 300 ETF this week, and a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 49.3% in July [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices rose collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks slightly stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, and the decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. Although the US - China trade reached a 90 - day tariff truce extension, the market is expected to enter a wide - range shock due to the decline of the three domestic PMI indices in July and the lack of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) was at 4082.0, up 34.0; IF sub - main contract (2508) was at 4095.0, up 35.0. IH main contract (2509) was at 2791.0, up 23.0; IH sub - main contract (2508) was at 2789.4, up 22.2. IC main contract (2509) was at 6198.6, up 40.8; IC sub - main contract (2508) was at 6265.4, up 44.8. IM main contract (2509) was at 6682.0, up 59.4; IM sub - main contract (2508) was at 6754.4, up 60.0 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1305.6, up 10.6; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2170.4, up 5.0 [2]. - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts varied. For instance, IF current - quarter - current - month was - 44.0, down 0.4; IH current - quarter - current - month was 3.4, up 1.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 28,119.00, up 31.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 15,955.00, down 81.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 14,642.00, up 452.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 48,013.00, up 1277.0 [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4103.45, up 32.8; the Shanghai 50 was at 2790.73, up 21.3. The CSI 500 was at 6303.24, up 41.5; the CSI 1000 was at 6787.48, up 47.8 [2]. - The basis of each main contract also changed. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 21.4, down 3.5; the IH main contract basis was 0.3, down 0.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 16,158.21 billion yuan, up 976.19 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 19,913.13 billion yuan, up 114.56 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1946.91 billion yuan, down 229.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 72.04%, up 0.48%. Shibor was 1.315%, up 0.001% [2]. Industry News - In July, the domestic official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and had been in the contraction range for 4 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were still above the boom - bust line but also declined from the previous values [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, and the tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025 [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far less than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% [2]. Key Data to Watch - China's July trade data will be released on August 7 at 9:30; July financial data will be released on August 8 at 16:00; July PPI and CPI will be released on August 9 at 9:30 [3].

Group 1: Index Trends - On August 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points with a trading volume of 639.776 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to close at 11041.56 points with a trading volume of 858.775 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% with a trading volume of 329.555 billion yuan, opening at 6637.84, closing at 6739.69, with a daily high of 6739.73 and a low of 6631.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 236.649 billion yuan, opening at 6190.34, closing at 6261.73, with a daily high of 6261.96 and a low of 6187.62 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% with a trading volume of 80.252 billion yuan, opening at 2748.62, closing at 2769.39, with a daily high of 2769.39 and a low of 2748.62 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 69.22 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 48.53 points from the previous close, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, media, and non - ferrous metals significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.52, IM01 of - 107.93, IM02 of - 294.98, and IM03 of - 466.83 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.72, IC01 of - 96.84, IC02 of - 247.57, and IC03 of - 377.49 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.85, IF01 of - 19.1, IF02 of - 50.68, and IF03 of - 81.55 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.09, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 2.36, and IH03 of 2.52 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00 etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791 etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318 etc. [22]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, for example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098 etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889 etc. [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the stock index is that it is upward in the medium and long term, and mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term. For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is upward [1][5] - The stock index has a technical consolidation need in the short term, but it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term due to factors such as the mitigation of external risks, the resilience of domestic economic data, and high risk preference in the stock market [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the view reference is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is upward. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1518.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk preference of investors. The expectation of policy reinforcement has weakened in the short term, and there is a need for technical consolidation in the short term. However, external risks are mitigated, domestic economic data is resilient, and the stock market risk preference is high, so the stock index is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to show a high-level consolidation pattern, with relatively large adjustments in CSI 300 and CSI 500. Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was still in the mode of futures discount. The A-share market was mainly in a high-level adjustment last week, and it is more likely to continue to decline next week. There has been a high-low switch in sectors, with the financial industry fading from the gain list and the relatively low-level pharmaceutical and education industries seeing supplementary gains [4]. - Looking ahead to next week, the Politburo meeting released multiple significant signals on the policy front. The meeting's judgment on the external situation has eased. In terms of macro policies, the meeting emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In terms of structural policies, the policy to expand domestic demand emphasizes supporting "service consumption" and promoting the construction of "two important aspects", while the "anti-involution" policy focuses on the capacity governance of key industries [5]. - In historical market trends driven by incremental liquidity, the leading industries are mostly continuously concentrated rather than rotating from high to low. The essence behind this is that funds pursue efficiency and tend to focus on high-consensus varieties. The market performance in July verified this point. Recently, the marginal increase in incremental liquidity has slowed down, and the market needs to cool down to achieve stable and long-term development [6]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued high-level consolidation, with CSI 300 and CSI 500 having relatively large adjustments. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties was mostly in the futures discount mode. The A-share market was in high-level adjustment, with shrinking trading volume and profit-taking pressure at high levels. There was a high-low switch in sectors, with the financial industry fading from the gain list and the pharmaceutical and education industries seeing supplementary gains. The Chinese medicine sector rose 3.94% in the past 3 days, and the education sector rose 2.33% in the past 3 days [4]. Comprehensive Analysis - Next week, the Politburo meeting released multiple significant policy signals. The judgment on the external situation has eased. Macro policies emphasize a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Structural policies focus on supporting "service consumption", promoting "two important aspects" construction, and capacity governance in key industries [5]. - Historically, in market trends driven by incremental liquidity, leading industries are concentrated rather than rotating from high to low. The market in July verified this. Recently, the marginal increase in incremental liquidity has slowed down, and the market needs to cool down [6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock index futures showed slight increases in early trading, indicating a stable market sentiment [1] Group 1: Stock Index Futures Performance - The main contract for the CSI 300 index futures (IF) rose by 0.03% [1] - The main contract for the SSE 50 index futures (IH) increased by 0.26% [1] - The main contract for the CSI 500 index futures (IC) saw a marginal rise of 0.01% [1] - The main contract for the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) gained 0.22% [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for financial futures in the stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be range - bound, while the medium - term view is upward. For IH2509, the short - term is expected to be volatile, the medium - term is expected to rise, the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish, and the overall view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 161.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Short - term Technical Factors**: Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, so some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits, and the stock indices need short - term technical consolidation. The recent decline in trading volume in the stock market indicates a decline in investors' risk appetite [5]. - **Policy Factors**: The July Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The policy focus is on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. Incremental policy benefits may need to wait for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 24th Central Committee in October, so the driving force of policy benefits has weakened marginally in the short term [5]. - **Economic Data**: The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, indicating that the problem of insufficient internal effective demand still exists [5]. - **External Factors**: External uncertainties remain, and the final result of China - US economic and trade consultations has not been finalized. Therefore, the driving force of the market has weakened marginally in the short term, and it needs time to fluctuate and consolidate [5].