申万宏源证券表示，9月3日阅兵前，自主可控和国防军工板块存在脉冲机会。历史经验显示，重大 阅兵事件对军工股具有显著催化作用。当前距离阅兵仅剩一个月，市场预期持续升温。 航空航天ETF（159227）为全市场规模最大的航空类ETF，跟踪国证航天指数，申万一级军工行业 占比高达97.86%，是全市场军工含量最高的指数，聚焦军工细分空天力量，成分股覆盖战斗机、运输 机、直升机、航空发动机、导弹、卫星、雷达等全产业链龙头，完美契合"空天一体"的战略方向。 8月19日，A股三大指数集体上涨，沪指站稳3700点，通信、医药、房地产等行业领涨，国防军工 跌幅居前，截至9:57，全市场军工含量最高的航空航天ETF（159227）跌幅1.55%，成交额达5556万 元，稳居同类第一，持仓股海兰信、国科军工、振芯科技、上海瀚讯上涨。军工板块中长期景气度提 升，短期回调或迎布局机会。 现代战争中，空中力量的作用日益凸显，使得航空装备成为各国军队建设的重点，行业技术门槛极 高，涉及众多高端技术和复杂工艺，在军工产业链中的价值量占比较高，是军工板块的核心方向。9月3 日大阅兵仪式在即，叠加十四五收官年，航空航天板块反复活跃。 每日经济 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 行业配置上，建议关注：1）新技术、新成长方向：如国产算力、机器人、固态电池、医药等；2）受益 于股市流动性宽松板块：大金融。主题方面，关注自主可控、军工、低空经济、海洋科技等。 风险提示：政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 （来源：华西研究） 证券分析师：李立峰 S1120520090003； 华西策略 市场回顾：本周全球股指普涨，深证成指领涨全球股市，A股市场延续走强，投资者风险偏好整体抬 升，A股两市成交额与两融余额双双突破2万亿元。伴随量能的突破，上证指数录得"八连阳"并一度突 破3700点，创下近四年来新高。结构上，科技主线延续强势表现，AI、半导体、机器人等成长板块大 涨，创业板指、科创50分别大涨8.58%和5.53%。 市场展望：中期A股市场仍有充足空间和机会。其一，全球贸易不确定性增强，但中国经济的强大韧性 正在得到越来越广泛的国际认可。4月7日关税冲击后，A股高风险偏好资金已率先入市；其二，过去居 民部门积累了大量超额储蓄，潜在增量资金充裕。截至2025年上半年，住户存款向上偏离2011-2019年 间的趋势线约50万亿以上，意味着股市潜在增量资金庞大；其 ...

Market Review - The equity market indices continued to strengthen, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 8.58% [4] - The bond market saw an increase in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 5.74 basis points to 1.747% [10] - The fund market experienced mixed results, with equity funds rising while medium and short-term pure bond fund indices declined [18] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the semiconductor sector due to the upcoming China Semiconductor Ecosystem Development Conference and the newly introduced personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy [21][20] - Asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell strategy, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors [23] - Recommended funds include those focused on consumer and infrastructure sectors, as well as technology growth styles [23][27] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan, maintaining a balanced liquidity environment [29] - Economic data for July shows a year-on-year industrial value-added growth of 5.7% [29] - Social financing data indicates a total stock of 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [29] Key Focus Products - Recommended products include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond A, as well as funds benefiting from convertible bonds and equity market opportunities [2][34]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "slow bull" phase, driven by the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for incremental capital inflows, despite concerns about valuation risks in hard technology sectors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" phase, characterized by a dynamic environment where rapid price increases in Q3 could lead to increased volatility in Q4 unless strong signals prompt a significant upward revision of profit expectations [1][7]. - Incremental capital inflows are expected from various sources, including insurance asset management, bank wealth management, household savings, and foreign investments, indicating substantial potential for market growth [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor and hard technology sectors are under scrutiny for potential valuation risks, but the focus should be on whether actual industry progress aligns with market expectations [2][12]. - The energy metals sector is highlighted as a significant opportunity, particularly under the "anti-involution" policy, which may stabilize supply-demand dynamics and enhance industry valuations [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment in the Sci-Tech Board and ChiNext is recommended, as both indices represent emerging growth sectors with attractive valuations below historical averages [3][8]. - Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of high-flying stocks and to maintain a disciplined approach by setting reasonable profit targets and stop-loss levels [14][15].

Macroeconomic Background - The A-share market has gradually emerged from a period of volatility since 2025, showing a relatively stable upward trend supported by domestic economic resilience and external environmental changes [1][3] - Global trade uncertainties have increased, but the impact of tariff shocks has not led to systemic risks, as domestic investors have shown confidence in China's economic fundamentals [1][3] - The domestic economy is undergoing a structural transformation, with manufacturing upgrades and capital market reforms providing new growth opportunities [3][4] Funding Logic - As of mid-2025, Chinese households have accumulated significant excess savings, with household deposits exceeding the trend line from 2011 to 2019 by over 50 trillion yuan, indicating a large potential fund pool for the stock market [4][5] - The ratio of A-share total market value to household deposits is at a historical low, suggesting that the transition of household funds into the market is just beginning [5][6] Institutional and Reform Dynamics - The direction of capital market reforms since 2024 has become clearer, focusing on "increasing investor returns" through improved dividend policies and optimized delisting systems [7][8] - Institutional reforms are reshaping perceptions of Chinese assets, leading to a decrease in risk premiums and creating long-term space for valuation expansion [7][8] Industry Allocation New Growth Directions - The AI industry is entering a phase of accelerated industrialization, with domestic supply chains rapidly innovating and replacing foreign counterparts [9] - The manufacturing upgrade trend is expected to drive the adoption of industrial and service robots, supported by policy emphasis on new productivity [10] - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to be a breakthrough in electric vehicles, with key domestic companies accelerating R&D [12] - The pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from aging populations and rising health demands, with innovative drugs showing growth potential [13] Financial Sector - The financial sector is poised to benefit from increased market activity as household funds enter the market [14] - Brokerage firms will see enhanced trading activity and expansion in investment banking services [15] - Insurance companies will experience improved returns due to favorable interest rates and a recovering equity market [16] - Banks remain attractive for defensive allocations due to stable dividends and low valuations [17] Thematic Opportunities - The military industry is expected to grow due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on self-sufficiency in critical technologies [18] - Emerging industries like drones and general aviation are gaining traction with significant policy support [19] - Marine technology sectors are projected to grow under the "blue economy" strategy [20] Defensive Allocation - High-dividend assets are becoming preferred defensive options in a declining risk-free interest rate environment, with sectors like coal, oil, and utilities offering attractive yields [21] Conclusion - The mid-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by economic resilience, household funding potential, and institutional reforms [26] - A virtuous cycle is expected as household deposits gradually shift to the stock market, leading to steady index growth and low volatility [26] - The market is anticipated to present structural opportunities across various sectors, making it an optimal time for long-term investors to gradually position themselves [26]

面对"当前硬科技企业盈利周期较长，其估值是否已存在透支风险"的担忧，陈果表示，现在不能说已经 是透支。实际上这个问题我们从大概2019年就开始经历。当时半导体迎来一轮重要牛市，市场对其估值 也存在巨大分歧。 但如今我们看到，一些当时领涨的公司，市值已显著增长，估值（PE）反而下降，股价走势也变得更 加稳健。它们成功实现了国产替代，其历史股价高点并非出现在2019年估值高峰时。这些公司当前的 PE并不高，在本轮行情中也并非表现最领先的。 具体来看，一方面，对国产替代、自主可控的大方向应保持战略上的相对乐观；另一方面，投资者必须 动态紧密跟踪产业替代的实际节奏和进展。"因为股票本身就是对未来进行定价"，陈果解释道，"我们 不能简单地讲他透支的问题"，尤其是在国产替代难度不断升级的背景下，产业推进的节奏至关重要。 今日，沪指强势突破10年新高，点燃市场热情。面对"牛市确认"后的投资方向，新浪证券独家连线东方 财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果，深度解析当前投资新逻辑。其中，科创板及硬科技投资机会 成为市场焦点。视频详情>> 陈果指出，当前半导体板块以及更广泛的进口替代、自主可控、国产化主题的估值，"确实已经包含了 ...

Market Overview - The market showed a collective strength today, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high. AI hardware stocks, including liquid cooling servers and CPOs, continued their strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit. [1] - The total trading volume today was 2.81 trillion yuan, with over 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets showing gains. [1] Hot Topics Liquid Cooling Servers - The liquid cooling sector remained hot, with stocks like Dayuan Pump Industry and Feilong Co. hitting consecutive daily limits. [4] - The liquid cooling segment saw a price increase of 6.69%, driven by OpenAI's announcement to double its computing power in the next five months. [5] - Major companies in the liquid cooling industry are actively engaging with overseas AI giants, indicating a potential breakthrough in performance for leading firms. [6] Film and Television - The film and television sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Jishi Media and Huace Film & TV hitting daily limits. [6] - Recent regulatory changes from the National Radio and Television Administration may ease restrictions on TV series production, potentially revitalizing the industry. [7][8] - The film industry is positioned at a turning point, with expectations for improved business models and accelerated project launches, which could enhance cash flow and advertising revenue. [8] Domestic Chips - The domestic chip sector remained active, with companies like Dahao Technology and Hanzhong Precision hitting daily limits. [9] - Recent announcements regarding asset acquisitions and funding for chip platforms indicate a strengthening of the domestic semiconductor supply chain. [10][11] - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of $346 billion by mid-2025, reflecting strong industry momentum. [11]

航空航天ETF（159227） 紧密跟踪国证航天指数，深度聚焦军工空天核心领域。该指数高度集中，申 万一级军工行业占比高达97.86%，堪称全市场"军工纯度"最高的指数；其成分股中，航空航天装备权重 占比达66.8%，显著超越中证军工与中证国防指数。现代战争中，空天力量的作用日益凸显，是军工板 块的核心方向。 申万宏源证券表示，9月3日阅兵前，自主可控和国防军工板块存在脉冲机会。历史经验显示，重大阅兵 事件对军工股具有显著催化作用。当前距离阅兵仅剩一个月，市场预期持续升温。 自2024年7月31日到2025年7月31日，国证航天指数收益率37.28%，超过中证国防指数（33.06%）、中 证军工指数（30.4%）和军工龙头指数（26.78%）。 8月18日，A股三大指数集体反弹，创业板指盘中大涨超3%，沪指冲破3731点，创近十年以来新高。航 空航天ETF（159227）午后继续拉升，截至13点05，涨幅扩大至1.76%，成交额达1.2亿元，稳居同类第 一，持仓股天和防务涨超8%，中国海防、光启技术、洪都航空、航宇科技、海兰信、亚光科技等股跟 涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

行业配置上，建议均衡配置应对潜在波动和快速轮动。具体而言，科技方向，AI海外链和创新药等景 气行业在经历市场资金集中抱团后已变得交易拥挤，增量资金恐高或寻找低位品种，我们建议关注围绕 AI主线且股价赔率相对合适的AI应用和半导体先进制程等方向，近期国家围绕AI应用及自主可控领域 有政策呵护，随着企业端盈利模式跑通，盈利性将逐渐体现。作为抗战胜利80周年盛典重要事件的9.3 阅兵在即，军工行业受到的市场关注度已显著上升，尤其在百年变局和地缘动荡的当下。价值方向，随 着市场逐渐走强，券商、保险、金融IT等非银方向或有望迎来估值和业绩的双重改善。随着美联储降息 预期打开，以及2026年海外货币和财政双宽局势的确立，外需受益的有色、家电等出口链品种或将迎来 配置机会，市场对基本面负面冲击已脱敏，远期改善对市场定价而言更为重要，若因短期弱现实引发回 调波动而是配置机会；未来反内卷进度和延续性有望加强，建议关注光伏、玻璃、钢铁等亏成本严重以 及近期政策重点指导的行业。 风险提示： A股近期放量上涨，成交额已连续4个交易日破2万亿，上证指数创2021年12月以来新高。经济数据方 面，消费、地产等经济数据依旧偏弱而金融数据结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in the performance of the Xinchang ETF fund (562030), which focuses on the software development industry, with a 3.75% increase in intraday price on August 18 [1][2] - Major constituent stocks of the fund, such as Yonyou Network, Zhongwang Software, and Yingshisheng, experienced substantial gains, with Yonyou Network hitting the daily limit and Zhongwang Software rising over 10% [1] - The computer sector is the largest weighted industry in the Xinchang ETF fund, accounting for 94.2% as of August 15 [3] Group 2 - The 2025 Global Business Innovation Conference, hosted by Yonyou Network, focused on the theme of "AI Implementation in Enterprises," discussing challenges and pathways for AI applications in business [5] - Yonyou announced a significant upgrade to its enterprise software and intelligent service platform, Yonyou BIP, emphasizing its core advantages of "AI × Data × Process" [5] - The investment landscape is shifting towards the AI and security sectors, driven by the demand for autonomous and controllable AI models, with expectations of market growth in the信创 industry [6][8] Group 3 - The信创 industry is progressing steadily, transitioning from policy-driven to a dual-driven approach of policy and market, with significant growth expected in the coming years [6] - The market size for the信创 industry is projected to grow at rates of 17.84% and 26.82% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with the market expected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [6] - The信创 ETF fund and its related funds are designed to track the中证信创指数, covering key segments of the信创 industry, including hardware, software, and information security [8]