1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of soda ash and glass is limited due to market sentiment disturbances. For soda ash, the futures price has shifted upward due to macro - disturbances and maintenance expectations. Although the high supply currently exerts pressure on prices, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in May. For glass, the sales - to - production ratio has rebounded, but the pessimistic market expectation remains unchanged [1][4][54]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts increased by 32, 25, and 14 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11. The basis of the main contract increased by 17 [6]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of heavy - alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of light - alkali in the central region decreased by 40 [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 89.44%. The weekly output decreased by 0.05 million tons to 75.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.07%. The heavy - alkali output decreased by 0.10 million tons to 41.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.24%. Although the light - alkali output increased slightly by 0.05 million tons to 33.96 million tons, an increase of 0.15%, the high supply still exerts pressure on prices. However, there is an expectation of a decrease in production in early May as the number of maintenance enterprises gradually increases [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - The daily output of float glass decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 0.08 million tons to 9.73 million tons, an increase of 0.83%. The apparent demand for light - alkali decreased by 1.97 million tons to 33.60 million tons, a decrease of 5.54% [7]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2.03 million tons to 169.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.19%. The heavy - alkali inventory decreased by 2.39 million tons to 84.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.76%, while the light - alkali inventory increased slightly by 0.36 million tons to 85.05 million tons, an increase of 0.43% [7]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit of the combined - soda process increased by 101.40 yuan/ton to 255.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 110.13%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process increased by 78.25 yuan/ton to 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 121.85% [52]. 3.1.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the price of soda ash may fluctuate or fluctuate slightly upward as the expectation of inventory accumulation in alkali plants is low. In the long term, high supply and high inventory will still suppress prices [8]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts changed by 13, - 9, and - 7 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 22, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 [56]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of 5mm glass in Shahe increased by 4 yuan/ton, while the price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices in other regions remained stable [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.19 percentage points to 75.85%. The daily output decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, and the weekly output decreased by 0.35 million tons to 110.58 million tons. The supply remained relatively stable [57]. 3.2.3 Demand - The apparent demand decreased by 2.95 million tons to 108.61 million tons, a decrease of 3%. The orders of processing plants varied, with most orders increasing slightly but not significantly. Most purchases of raw glass were for rigid demand, and the sales - to - production ratio declined significantly in the second half of the week [57]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory increased by 39.5 million weight - cases to 6547.3 million weight - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of traders in Shahe decreased by 44 million weight - cases to 360 million weight - cases, a decrease of 11% [57]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit of natural - gas - fired glass increased by 13.72 yuan/ton to - 153.13 yuan/ton, an increase of 8%. The profit of coal - gas - fired glass increased by 16.36 yuan/ton to 145.05 yuan/ton, an increase of 13%. The profit of petroleum - coke - fired glass decreased by 34.29 yuan/ton to - 38.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845% [57]. 3.2.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the glass market has no obvious driving force on the fundamental side, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in terminal demand after the holiday and the impact of the commodity market sentiment [58].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/4/28 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | | 2025/4/24 | 2025/4/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 493. 4 | 496. 1 | 2. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,期货休市,现货市场未闻公开成 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 784. 4 | 794.8 | 10. 38 | 交,现货基差参考主力供应商报盘的算术平均值评估 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2188 | 1. 2205 | 0. 0017 | 。PTA去库存利好延续,主力供应商挺市。 | | | CFR中国PX | 744 | 752 | 8 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 155 | 170 | 15 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual investment outlooks for different varieties, including "strengthening," "oscillating," "rebounding," "weakening," and "going short at high levels" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple varieties in the commodity market, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, and methanol. It provides core views, basic logics, and strategy recommendations for each variety, along with price ranges [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Strengthening [1] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances, such as the tense relationship between the US and Iran, the unexpected decline in US crude oil production in January, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the continued US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have led to a rise in oil prices [1][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium to long - term, there is a strong downward pressure on the oil price center after the third quarter due to the supply - surplus situation. In the short - term, the trend is strong, and short - position holders should be cautious. SC is expected to be in the range of [545 - 560] [5]. LPG - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The upward pressure on oil prices has increased after continuous rebounds. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed, with a decrease in commodity volume on the supply side, high port inventories, and a recent decline in downstream profits [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the strengthening of upstream crude oil and no major driving forces in the fundamentals, it is expected to oscillate. Technical indicators show short - term oscillation. Long - position holders should take profits, and bull spread options can be sold. PG is expected to be in the range of [4600 - 4700] [9]. L - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil is strong, the parking ratio has decreased significantly, and social inventories have decreased slightly. However, supply exceeds demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production is high [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short at high levels. L is expected to be in the range of [7600 - 7740] [12]. PP - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The parking ratio remains high. In the short - term, it follows the cost - end and shows strength. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production restricts the upward space [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7260 - 7360] [15]. PVC - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened slightly, social inventories have declined from a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being cancelled in March. The market is oscillating at a low level. The regular spring maintenance from April to May is about to start [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on pullbacks. V is expected to be in the range of [5020 - 5140] [18]. PX - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance volume of downstream PTA is high. The improvement in supply - demand is limited. The crude oil price has stabilized recently but is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing but remains high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PX is expected to be in the range of [6850 - 7020] [21]. PTA - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to ease. The downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. The inventory is slightly high [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, but the rebound height may be limited. TA is expected to be in the range of [4830 - 4930] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The recent increase in device maintenance has not effectively alleviated the supply pressure due to high imports. The demand is good but is expected to weaken. The cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The recent market is oscillating weakly, and range - bound operations are recommended. EG is expected to be in the range of [4440 - 4520] [27]. Bottle Chips - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to device capacity expansion. The soft - drink market is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PR is expected to be in the range of [6010 - 6080] [30]. Glass - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic data has improved, the supply has declined from a low level, the terminal demand is weakly recovering, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The market is undervalued near the coal - based cost, and there is intense capital game [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1220] [33]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The spring maintenance is nearly over, and the supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the speculative demand is insufficient. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased from a decline, and the absolute inventory level is high [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1370 - 1400] [35]. Methanol - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based methanol devices are entering the spring maintenance stage, but the maintenance volume is lower than expected. The supply pressure remains high. The methanol arrival volume is lower than the same period, but overseas devices are gradually resuming, and the future arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand is continuously improving, but downstream feedback needs attention. The social inventory is decreasing [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. MA is expected to be in the range of [2470 - 2520] [1]. Urea - **Core View**: Go short at high levels [1] - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing seasonally but remains slightly high. The cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The current daily production of urea remains high, and the industrial demand is expected to weaken. The agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. The supply - demand is still loose, and chasing the rise should be cautious. UR is expected to be in the range of [1840 - 1880] [1].