就业是反映宏观基本面的核心指标。当就业增长开始放缓，消费活力也可能随之减弱，而消费正是美国经济的主引擎。因此，市场已经迅速调整了 对美联储政策路径的押注，年内降息两次已成为多数机构的主基调。美联储虽未明确表态，但持续释放的"数据依赖"信号已足够让市场产生预期牵 引。美元指数应声大跌1.06%，创下自4月份以来最大单日跌幅，兑主要货币全面承压。 上周五公布的美国非农就业数据彻底打乱了市场对美联储政策节奏的预判。Vatee万腾据悉，美国劳工部数据显示，7月非农业部门仅新增7.3万个就 业岗位，不仅远低于市场此前预期的11万，更关键的是，这一数据还叠加了6月大幅下修的就业修正。与此同时，失业率环比上升至4.2%，为近几 个月来的高点。这种就业端的明显疲软无疑削弱了市场对美国经济"软着陆"前景的信心。 外部货币环境也并不宽松。欧元区7月通胀维持在2.0%，打破了此前下行预期。欧洲央行因此很可能在9月会议上维持利率不变，而非如市场此前预 测的那样提前释放宽松信号。这意味着，美元的利差优势可能进一步收窄，汇率相对强势的逻辑也将遭到动摇。 在过去数月，美元凭借其"高利差+避险偏好"在全球货币市场中占据主导地位。但随着内外部 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant impact of a €2 billion investment by Volkswagen in the U.S. on European manufacturing, allowing products to enter Europe tariff-free [1] - The trade dynamics reveal a stark contrast where producing in Europe incurs a 15% cost, while production in the U.S. allows for free access to two major markets [3] Group 2 - The investment by Volkswagen is seen as a strategic move that disrupts traditional European manufacturing barriers [1] - The energy costs in Europe are causing challenges for local factories, while new industrial parks in the southern U.S. are thriving [3]

Group 1 - The United States has imposed a 39% tariff on goods imported from Switzerland, effective from the 7th of this month, which undermines a previously established trade agreement from July [1] - Swiss industry associations warn that the new tariff will lead to significant price increases for Swiss products such as watches, chocolate, and cheese within a week, impacting both Swiss manufacturers and American consumers [1] - The Swiss chocolate manufacturing association indicates that costs for Swiss chocolate producers may rise by nearly 50% due to the tariff and currency fluctuations, which will ultimately be passed on to American consumers [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the total trade volume between the US and Switzerland is projected to reach $88.4 billion, with the US having a trade deficit of nearly $38.5 billion with Switzerland, marking a 56.9% increase from 2023 [2] - The Swiss Federal President Karin Keller-Sutter stated that the US focuses solely on the goods trade deficit, but when including US service exports, Switzerland's trade surplus is approximately half of the previously calculated figure [2] - The Swiss government plans to analyze the situation and determine the next steps in response to the new tariff measures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that the rising uncertainty surrounding trade, immigration, and fiscal policy changes leads to divergent viewpoints being normal [1] Group 1 - The increase in uncertainty is attributed to changes in trade policies, immigration policies, and fiscal policies [1] - Divergent opinions among economic analysts and policymakers are expected due to the aforementioned uncertainties [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】根据市场研究公司CoreData Research公布的一项调查结果，许多机构投资者已经开始部 署防范市场低迷的策略。 数据显示，由于美国贸易政策引发的波动，大约每10个机构投资者中就有8个正在采取战术性或较长期的战略转 变。 值得一提的是，在特朗普本月与日本和欧盟达成贸易协议之际，各机构普遍呈现出谨慎的心态。CoreData Research发现，69%的大型投资者担心贸易政策将导致全球资金从美国国债和美元转移。 且尽管特朗普声称其关税政策将使美国经济受益，但64%的受访者表示担心，关税政策将导致结构性通胀上升和 经济增长放缓。 CoreData Research美国负责人Michael Morley指出，鉴于"各种各样的经济情景"仍在市场发展中发挥重要作用，金 融机构目前正专注于降低风险，提高投资组合的弹性。"研究表明，机构投资者对全球最重要贸易谈判的任何乐观 情绪，都掩盖了一种感觉，即全球贸易已经发生了不可逆转的变化，因此，投资组合结构必须适应新的现实。" Morley认为，在战略配置方面，机构投资者的举动体现出比以往市场周期中更加灵活的反应功能。这些策略包括 转向价值型股票和/或 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the intensifying trade negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, with Canada and Mexico sending delegations for closed-door talks with U.S. officials [1][4] - President Trump announced a preliminary trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, while also planning to impose a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1 [3][5] - The urgency of the negotiations is underscored by the impending August 1 deadline for tariff implementation, with Trump stating that the deadline will not be extended [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's personal involvement in the negotiations has been significant, as he has overridden suggestions from senior aides and directly engaged in discussions with trade ministers [7] - The article notes that smaller economies may struggle to meet U.S. demands, citing Switzerland's unique trade balance as an example [7] - Despite the tense diplomatic atmosphere, U.S. financial markets, including the S&P 500 index, have shown resilience, reaching historical highs [8] Group 3 - Analysts express caution regarding the market's complacency, warning that the potential impact of trade policies on the economy and markets may be underestimated [10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to downplay the potential negative effects of retaliatory tariffs, suggesting that short-term tariffs may not lead to significant economic disruption [10]

Core Viewpoint - Rongyang Industrial (02078) is expected to report a loss of approximately HKD 26.6 million in the first half of 2025, following a profit of about HKD 5.9 million in the first half of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline from approximately HKD 433.9 million in the first half of 2024 to HKD 242.8 million in the first half of 2025 [1] - Gross margin is expected to decrease from around 17.2% in the first half of 2024 to approximately 11.8% in the first half of 2025 [1] Contributing Factors - The shift from profit to loss is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions, changing trade policies, and a slower-than-expected economic recovery in several key markets, which have negatively impacted customer sentiment and order volume [1] - The decline in order volume has limited cost absorption and increased production costs, further affecting profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union will establish export quotas for Indonesian palm oil, which will subsequently receive a 0% tariff rate [1] Group 1 - The decision by the EU is expected to significantly impact the Indonesian palm oil industry by providing a competitive advantage through reduced tariffs [1] - This move aligns with the EU's broader strategy to regulate palm oil imports while supporting sustainable practices [1]

Core Points - The global trade negotiations have intensified as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, with representatives from major U.S. trading partners gathering in Washington for last-minute discussions [1][2] - President Trump has announced plans to impose higher tariffs on countries that fail to reach agreements, specifically a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which is higher than the 15%-20% range for other Asian countries [1] - The U.S. financial markets remain resilient, with the S&P 500 index reaching an all-time high, despite warnings from some Wall Street institutions about the potential economic impacts of changing trade policies [1][5] Negotiation Dynamics - Key allies such as Canada and Mexico have sent delegations to engage in closed-door talks with U.S. officials as the deadline nears [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed cautious optimism regarding the negotiations, indicating that they may not conclude by the August 1 deadline [3] - A preliminary trade agreement has been reached with South Korea, with a 15% tariff announced by Trump, who stated that South Korea will invest $350 billion in U.S. projects [3] Trump's Intervention - President Trump has taken a hands-on approach in the negotiations, often overruling senior aides and demanding more concessions from other countries [4] - His direct involvement includes personal calls with Indian trade officials, emphasizing a tough stance on negotiations with major economies while treating smaller nations differently [4] - A new executive order is expected to be signed by Trump to finalize tariff rates, avoiding a return to previously announced levels [4] Market Reactions - Despite the tense diplomatic environment, U.S. financial markets have shown remarkable resilience, with the S&P 500 and the dollar reaching multi-month highs [5] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley caution against complacency, suggesting that the market may underestimate the impact of U.S. trade policies [8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplayed the potential negative effects of retaliatory tariffs, indicating that short-term tariffs may not lead to significant economic disruption [8]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations due to improved operational efficiency and increased commercial aircraft deliveries, with cash flow surpassing company guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Boeing's second-quarter results were bolstered by operational efficiency and a rise in commercial aircraft deliveries [1] - The company reported a free cash flow of approximately -$200 million in the second quarter, excluding DOJ payments, and expects third-quarter free cash flow to be similar [1] - Boeing anticipates a full-year free cash flow of -$3 billion for 2025, better than market expectations of -$3.4 billion, which includes a $700 million payment to the U.S. Department of Justice [1] Group 2: Production and Delivery - The production rate for the 737 reached 38 aircraft per month in the last quarter, with plans to stabilize this rate at 42 aircraft per month by late 2025, pending FAA approval [1] - Boeing believes it can exceed the initial delivery forecast of 400 aircraft for the 737 beyond 2025 [1] - The production rate for the 787 has recently increased from 5 aircraft per month to 7 aircraft per month [1] Group 3: Market and Trade Considerations - JPMorgan maintains an "overweight" rating on Boeing bonds, citing increased backlog orders and favorable treatment of the aerospace and defense industry in current trade negotiations [1] - The company feels more optimistic about tariff costs, previously estimating annual tariff-related costs to be below $500 million [1] - Long-term fair value for Boeing's 30-year bonds is considered to be T+100 basis points, as the company's credit profile is expected to improve over time [1]